The Bottom Line: Week 15 DK & FD GPP Plays

dfs

We hope you're enjoying this old content for FREE. You can view more current content marked with a FREE banner, but you'll have to sign up in order to access our other articles and content!

The Bottom Line: Week 15 DK & FD GPP Plays

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II, JAX at BAL ($5.3K DK | $6.6K FD | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)

The three QBs I’ve listed below as alternatives are each entering excellent stylistic matchups who are also anticipated to be criminally underowned. Tom Brady’s is especially mouthwatering. He’ll face an Atlanta defense playing the lowest combined rate (2.3 percent) of the two coverage shells he’s struggled with the most for as long as I’ve been able to properly diagnose schemes: Cover 4 and Cover 6.

In fact, in every game in which Brady has thrown multiple INTs this season (Week’s 1, 9, 11, and 12), he was defended by a team utilizing a top-10 combined rate of C4 and C6. In every game in which his completion percentage has been held below 65 percent (Week’s 1, 5, 6, 9, and 11), a top-10 combined rate of C4 and C6. Week 2 against Carolina -- which he played without Chris Godwin, while Rob Gronkowski’s snaps were still being managed -- stands as the only other game when Brady wasn’t facing a top-10 combined rate of C4 and C6, and failed to throw for multiple TDs.

All of that said, I wrote up Brady in last week’sedition. Rather than a complete write-up on “California Cool”, the previous paragraph will suffice. As for the QB actually found in the above heading, we really need to be giving Gardner Minshew II more DFS love. For starters, simply scanning his game log reveals that he’s provided at least 20 FPG in five-of-seven games started this season. In one of those games -- Week 7 at LAC, Minshew suffered multiple fractures, sprained a ligament in the thumb on his throwing hand, but still supplied 19.02 FPs.

I’ve attempted to play with a fracture in my hand while in high school, so allow me to pass along that the pain was tremendous. It truly speaks volumes to Minshew’s toughness that he didn’t miss a single Week 7 snap. In the one game where he flopped that we cannot excuse away, he scored 11.2 FPs opposite the Dolphins in Week 3. Now that we have sufficient data on Miami’s defense, that result is not as disappointing with the knowledge that he faced one of the top QB defending teams during 2020.

Let’s also remember that half of the Jaguars’ 12 losses have been by eight points-or-less, including four of the last six by three-or-less. That’s important as current 13-point road dogs to Baltimore since much of what Jacksonville sets out to do is carried on the shoulders of James Robinson. In order to maximize Minshew’s fantasy scoring potential, we do want the Jags to fall behind, just not so much that they can simply be defended with a ton of deep DBs in a zone working to keep the clock running, funneling everything inside, and closing off the end zone.

A huge part of what the Ravens set out to achieve on defense is simply jamming receivers at the line while maniacally blitzing the pocket with looping stunts. If they can reach the QB before the receivers can clear their coverage, Baltimore’s defense can shut an offense down entirely. Weeks 2 and 5 stand as the perfect examples. However, if the opposing O-line is skilled enough to quickly locate those stunts -- such as in Week’s 3 and 14, their secondary can end up high and dry within their man schemes.

Since the Ravens play man coverage at the league’s third-highest rate (47 percent), it can be a clear avenue of attack for the opposing offenses able to pull it off. The other way to attack Baltimore’s wreckless strategy is with a mobile QB. The ability to work efficiently outside the pocket is crucial. Over his career, Minshew has compiled 26 percent of TD passes working outside of the pocket. Since Baltimore utilizes such an aggressive pass rushing approach, they’ve warranted the ninth-most pure rushing FPG to opposing QBs (3.93). During his career, Minshew has carried the ball on designed runs a total of four times for six yards. The remainder of his 533 career rushing yards have been earned while scrambling from a collapsing pocket.

The Bottom Line: What’s even more promising for Week 15 are the shells he’ll face. The coverages that Minshew has found the most success against are, in order: Cover 3, Cover 1, and Cover 4. The Ravens feature Cover 1 at the eighth-highest rate (35 percent) and Cover 3 at the fifteenth (29 percent). On 23 percent of career dropbacks facing Cover 1, Minshew has thrown for 27 percent of his yardage, 30 percent of TDs, and his air yards/attempt increases by 21 percent. When defended by Cover 3, his FPs/dropback (FPDb) increases by the 11th-highest rate among 47 qualified QBs (15 percent), his passer rating ranks eighth-best (104.1), and his YPA increases by 20.4 percent. The Mike Glennon experiment failed -- in disastrous fashion -- to cover value after doing so for us in Week 13. Don’t allow Glennon’s incompetence to stand in your way of the possibility of Minshew providing upwards of 20 percent profit on DK, actually covering floor value on FD.

Dwayne Haskins Jr., WAS vs. SEA ($5.0K DK | $6.5K FD | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

From a QB playing for a team with nothing to play for outside of their role on the team to one with a possible playoff spot on the line. Despite those differences, both Minshew and Dwayne Haskins Jr. were previously removed from their starting roles due to their HCs wanting to see a higher quality of production. Now that both Kyle Allen and Alex Smith are not available, that decision is out of HC Ron Rivera’s hands:

If Rivera and OC Scott Turner take an honest look at the numbers, Haskins has been better than Smith from that statistical viewpoint. The fact that Smith was at the helm during Washington’s current four-game winning streak would very much stand to strike down any amount of analytics. Regardless, Haskins averaged 12 percent more FPDb, 13 percent more air yards/attempt, and he fed Terry McLaurin with 19.3 FPG compared to the 13.9 supplied by Allen and Smith. Haskins simply found himself in a new situation with a less patient head coach having no role in the decision to draft him.

Based on his early-season work, McLaurin clearly finds himself in the better situation. Don’t forget that the two also played together at Ohio State. All the same, Haskins failed to cover value in three-of-four games played. He never missed his floor by more than 17 percent, but that is not going to help us take down a GPP. What I am hoping for is that his time on the sidelines will have placed a fire under him. You can count on the fact that, if he comes away with a victory over Seattle, Haskins will have made a serious case toward reclaiming the starting role.

How can Haskins succeed? Well, if it’s not entirely clear yet, the Seahawks rely a great deal on their famed Cover 3 from their Legion of Boom days. They’ve used it at the third-highest rate this season (43 percent). That Cover 3 rate increases by 39 percent when they are expecting the run. If they anticipate a pass, their rate of Cover 2 increases by a dramatic 81 percent. A change from a C3 to a C2 is not one that Haskins will want to take place. Haskins’ FPDb is reduced by 59 percent under that exchange. Since Turner has only utilized RPOs (run-pass options) on around five percent of offensive plays, one of the best ways to limit those Cover 2 snaps is eliminated. The two options remaining are in utilizing heavy personnel or with play action.

I find it extremely odd that the Football Team used heavy personnel (12, 13, and 21) a full 15 percent more in games started by Smith than they did with Haskins. For those unaware, for example, 21 personnel indicates the number of RBs found with the first number (21) and tight ends with the second number (21). It’s also curious why play action was used a full 20 percent more with Smith than Haskins. Since those answers will never be provided, we just need to hope that those increased rates extend to Haskins in Week 15.

The Bottom Line: When Haskins has faced a Cover 3 on 21 percent of career snaps, he’s pulled 29 percent of his yardage, and 31 percent of TDs. His overall FPDb increases by 43.7 percent (seventh-highest among qualified QBs), his YPA by 22.9 percent (sixth-highest). Since McLaurin was already anticipated to be owned by between 11-14 percent of the field, stacking him with his QB looking at ownership no higher than two percent could pay off big if it hits. The Washington defense is on fire, the Seattle O-line hasstruggled to protect their QB, and Haskins will face a defense perfectly suited to his strengths.

Alternatives

Tom Brady, TB at ATL ($6.6K DK | $7.9K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: 2-5%)

Philip Rivers, IND vs. HOU ($5.9K DK | $7.1K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-4%)

Cam Newton, NE at MIA ($5.5K DK | $7.3K FD | O/U: 41.5 | ExpOwn%: >1-3%)

Running Backs

Kenyan Drake, ARI vs. PHI ($5.5K DK | $6.6K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: 4-7%)

Well, it seems that I will be featuring GPP analysis on Kenyan Drake yet again. With around 20 other RBs anticipated to be owned more than Drake, he is simply facing too great of a matchup to list him as an alternative. I simply cannot understand how a back averages 17.2 FPG over a two month period -- a number that would rank above all sans nine other RBs in comparison to season averages -- and priced at only $5.5K/$6.6K. Nonsensical. The Cardinals come with a top-10 O-line that’s at full health, Kyler Murray’s throwing shoulder appears to be 100 percent, and Chase Edmonds is highly questionable with an ankle injury.

Edmonds’ status would only add to Drake’s positive outlook, it will not diminish it. The Eagles will be extremely short-handed in the secondary if Darius Slay fails to clear the concussion protocol. Rodney McLeod is out for the season and Avonte Maddox has been ruled out. Philadelphia’s weaknesses significantly boosts the scoring potential of the entire offense. Prior to those injuries, the Eagles were allowing the tenth-most rushing YPG (127.3), seventh-highest rate of 20-plus runs (3.1 percent), and third-most TDs/game (1.38).

The Bottom Line: Please explain, with all of these factors taken into consideration, why Drake is expected to be found on between four-and-seven percent of GPP lineups. While I asked some similar questions on Wayne Gallman Jr.’s expected ownership last week, I based Gallman’s upside more on recent success, and the belief that HC Joe Judge would not allow Daniel Jones to play at what appeared to be 50-60 percent health, at best. That faith proved extremely misplaced. Moving on. Philly has done well to limit RBs to the third-lowest pure receiving FPG (7.1), but they’ve allowed them to amass the ninth-most pure rushing FPG this season (16.2). A clear opportunity exists.

Gus Edwards, BAL vs. JAX ($4.4K DK | $5.5K FD | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn%: >1-3%)

I simply love me some J.K. Dobbins. It is my belief that Dobbins possesses top-five vision at the position. No other drafted rookie back can match the upside of Dobbins -- Jonathan Taylor would rank second. Not only that, the Ravens run the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Now that HC John Harbaugh has shifted away from Mark Ingram II, Dobbins’ ceiling is sky-high. We will need to wait until Ronnie Stanley returns next season to truly grasp his full fantasy potential.

All of that to say, I still have zero idea why his running mate, Gus Edwards, is being completely overlooked at home facing one of the most generous run defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville is obliging the fifth-most FPG to opposing backfields (28.7), second-most over their last four (31.9), and the most over their last two (37.1). They are giving up the third-most rushing YPG (145.5), fourth-highest YPC (4.6), and the highest rate of runs of 20-plus yards (3.9 percent). Edwards just ran for two TDs against a far better run defense in Cleveland.

The Bottom Line: It’s clear that Dobbins is the lead back. Then you have Lamar Jackson averaging 12.5 carries over his last six games. However, when you remove the scrambles from Jackson, that average dwindles down to just over seven/game. That leaves Edwards with plenty enough of the volume to do some damage. At $4.4K/$5.5K, we need 13.2/16.5 FPs to justify the play. Should the Ravens build a big lead early, Jackson would run less, and Edwards would be allotted additional helpings.

Alternatives

D’Andre Swift, DET at TEN ($6.4K DK | $6.7K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: 4-7%)

Nyheim Hines, IND vs. HOU ($5.4K DK | $6.2K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 4-7%)

Darrell Henderson, LAR at LAC ($4.4K DK | $5.6K FD | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Peyton Barber, WAS vs. SEA ($4.4K DK | $5.0K FD | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Sony Michel, NE at MIA ($4.3K DK | $5.0K FD | O/U: 41.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB at ATL ($4.0K DK | $4.6K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, TEN vs. DET ($7.6K DK | $8.3K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: 6-9%)

The Detroit defense has been a fantasy target all season. They have tolerated four games of at least 30 points, three of at least 40. Since I’ve already covered A.J. Brown’s tremendous spot to smash in Advanced Matchups, you can gohere for a full rundown.

The Bottom Line: In the case of Brown, I entirely get the logic around a hesitation for exposure. At WR5/WR4 salaries on the main slate, our cap space is unable to support those prices unless we are certain it’s the right spot. Brown’s skill set provides as much of a mismatch for the Lions as you’ll find in the game. I’ll leave it at that.

Mike Evans, TB at ATL ($6.5K DK | $7.1K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: 1-4%)

Tom Brady only attempted 23 passes in Week 14. After pulling ahead 17-6 by halftime, he only attempted 39 percent of those passes during the second half. Only three of those came during the fourth quarter as Ronald Jones racked up 42 rushing yards. Chris Godwin only saw a 13 percent target share, his lowest of the season. Perhaps the Bucs intended him as more of a decoy after having 11 pins removed during the week from his surgically-repaired finger. Looking back at the film, holding Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen to 78 combined receiving yards, it’s not a surprise at all that they leaned on the run.

It’s very possible that the Buccaneers will be without Jones on Sunday. The ownership expectations in response for Leonard Fournette are truly insane. Fournette could be owned in as many lineups as Derrick Henry and Cam Akers. He does have reasonable salaries for a starting back, but he’s also facing a proven run defense from Atlanta. Attacking the Falcons on the ground is not the avenue toward success. Atlanta is certifying the third-highest completion percentage (70 percent), third-most passing yards (281.8), fourth-highest YPA (7.4), and the ninth-highest rate of 20-plus completions (14.5 percent).

The Bottom Line: As I was studying the Falcons defense, a trend emerged that I feel is extremely significant. When they’ve defended WRs standing at least 6-foot-3, every one of those players garnering more than one target averaged 21.9 FPG. Every WR less than 6-foot-3 producing double-digit FPs combine to average 14.9 FPG. That’s a 32 percent reduction for those standing 6-foot-2 or less.

To put that another way, 12 percent of the WRs faced (at least 6-foot-3), have collected 32 percent of all FPs allowed to the position by Atlanta. The only exclusion I made were the Carolina receivers in Week 8 when the Panthers dealt with heavy rain, 20-plus MPH winds. This game will be played inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium under a retractable dome. As I’ve already covered the prime matchup for Brady, the only thing I’ll add about Mike Evans during the entirety of “his” analysis is that he stands 6-foot-5.

Sammy Watkins, KC at NO ($4.6K DK | $5.6K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: 1-4%)

In Tyreek Hill’s only game facing New Orleans, Week 7 of his rookie season, he caught one pass for a 38-yard TD in a 27-21 victory. What’s the relevance? Nothing much, just interesting it took four years for these teams to meet again. What I do find relevant is that we can expect to see the Saints play a higher number of Cover 3 and Cover 4 snaps in response to the Chiefs passing at the league’s fourth-highest rate (67.3 percent).

To be clear, nothing N’Orleans throws at Kansas City will change the elite outlook for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, or Hill. Zero exaggeration: no team could defend KC any better than Miami did last week. Hill was ghosted by Xavien Howard outside of his TD run. But Mahomes still led them to score 33 points, completing over 70 percent of passes, and accumulating 393 yards. But that shift away from man coverage from the Saints could result in a coinciding shift to Sammy Watkins’ production.

The Bottom Line: Over Watkins’ last three seasons against Cover 3, his FPs/route (FPRt) has improved by 17 percent, and his yards/route (YPRR) run by 13 percent. Against Cover 4, his FPRt has spiked by 35 percent, the 15th-highest among 130 qualified WRs. On only 12 percent of routes facing Cover 4, Watkins has tracked down 18 percent of his yardage, and 33 percent of his TDs. His previous success combined with providing ample salary relief present him as a substantial dart candidate.

Alternatives

DK Metcalf, SEA at WAS ($8.6K DK | $8.2K FD | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn%: 6-9%)

Russell Gage, ATL vs. TB ($4.7K DK | $5.7K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Chad Hansen, HOU at IND ($4.2K DK | $5.6K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-2%)

Emmanuel Sanders, NO vs. KC ($4.2K DK | $5.5K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX at BAL ($3.8K DK | $5.2K FD | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)

Cam Sims, WAS vs. SEA ($3.3K DK | $4.9K FD | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Braxton Berrios, NYJ at LAR ($3.0K DK | $5.1K FD | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr., MIN vs. CHI ($3.6K DK | $5.4K FD | O/U: 46.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-3%)

No idea how many straight weeks I’ve listed a Minnesota TE in this piece. All I know is that they keep facing generous opponents to the position, while being completely overlooked. When these teams faced in Week 10, Irv Smith Jr.’s absence led to a 4/63/0 line for Kyle Rudolph. Now this:

The news is a boon to Cole Kmet’s outlook, but he’s actually expected to be the highest-owned TE on the main slate. Smith is likely looking at a slight increase to his ownership, but it’s likely to stick to around the same numbers we saw last week at two-to-three percent.

The Bottom Line: We all know the Bears are giving up a ton of FPs to TEs. If you didn’t, it’s the third-most at 15.6 FPG. At his bargain prices, the decision is obvious.

T.J. Hockenson, DET at TEN ($5.2K DK | $6.2K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: %)

While his matchup is not quite as mouth-watering as for Smith, Irv isn’t already one of the top-five fantasy TEs in the game. T.J. Hockenson is found in that exclusive group, but it is possible Matthew Stafford is unable to play. Do I have magical numbers in support of Chase Daniel? With 237 passing attempts over an 11-year career encompassing 67 games played, nobody does. We do know he’s averaged between 6.5-to-6.8 YPA over the last three seasons, not all that exciting. But he’s a high completion percentage QB without much in the way of WR options.

The Bottom Line: It makes sense that the field would avoid Hock priced as the TE3/TE4 without stability at QB. However, that’s precisely what sets him up with GPP value. We may not get Stafford, but we’ll still get the TE with the ninth-highest YPRR (1.71), and the fifth-highest target share (19 percent) that’s been above 23 percent in six of the last seven games. And the Titans are allowing the 12th-most FPG to opposing TEs at 13.4.

Alternatives

Jonnu Smith, TEN vs. DET ($3.7K DK | $5.3K FD | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)

Gerald Everett, LAR vs. NYJ ($3.1K DK | $5.0K FD | O/U: 43.5 | ExpOwn%: >1-3%)

Adam Shaheen, MIA vs. NE ($3.0K DK | $4.8K FD | O/U: 41.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Dan Arnold, ARI vs. PHI ($3.5K DK | $5.2K FD | O/U: 49.5 | ExpOwn%: >1%)

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots, NE at MIA ($3.0K DK | $4.1K FD | O/U: 41.5 | ExpOwn%: 1-4%)

Indianapolis Colts, IND vs. HOU ($3.6K DK | $4.9K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)

Alternative:

Chicago Bears, CHI at MIN ($3.2K DK | $4.4K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)

GPP Passing Game Stacks

Pay particular attention to the labels between each receiving option. Here are the guidelines:

  • Plus (+) = Optimal receiving stack

  • Plus/Minus (+/-) = Triple stack option

  • Plus/or (+/or) = More than one optimal receiving stack and worthy triple stack option

  • Or = More than one worthy secondary option in a triple stack

The combined salary listings are calculated triple stacks consisting of the QB plus the first two receiving options.

Philip Rivers + T.Y. Hilton +/- Michael Pittman Jr. or Jonathan Taylor or Nyheim Hines

Indianapolis Colts 11 | 12 Personnel vs. Houston Texans’ Cover 1 | 3

Run-Back Option/s: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee

Line: -7.0 | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 29.0 | Combined Salary: $16.2K DK | $19.4K FD

Tom Brady + Mike Evans +/- Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown

Buccaneers’ 11 | 12 Personnel at Atlanta Falcons’ Cover 1 | 2 | 3

Run-Back Option/s: Jefferson, Cook, Thielen, Smith

Line: -6.0 | O/U: 49.5 | Implied: 27.75 | Combined Salary: $19.3K DK | $22.2K FD

Drew Brees + Alvin Kamara +/- Jared Cook or Tre’Quan Smith or Emmanuel Sanders

New Orleans Saints’ 11 | 12 | 21 Personnel vs. Kansas City Chiefs’ Cover 0 | 2 | 4

Run-Back Option/s: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill

Line: -5.5 | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 24.25 | Combined Salary: $16.7K DK | $20.9K FD

Ryan Tannehill + A.J. Brown +/- Corey Davis or Jonnu Smith

Tennessee Titans’ 11 | 12 Personnel vs. Detroit Lions Cover 1 | 2

Run-Back Option/s: T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones Jr.

Line: -11.0 | O/U: 51.5 | Implied: 31.25 | Combined Salary: $20.1K DK | $22.8K FD

Gardner Minshew II + DJ Chark Jr. +/- James Robinson or Laviska Shenault Jr. or Keelan Cole

Jacksonville Jaguars’ 11 Personnel vs. Baltimore Ravens’ Cover 0 | 1

Run-Back Options: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews

Line: +13.0 | O/U: 47.5 | Implied: 17.25 | Combined Salary: $17.4K DK | $19.4K FD

Dwayne Haskins Jr. + Terry McLaurin +/- Logan Thomas or Cam Sims

Washington Football Team’ 11 | 12 | 21 Personnel vs. Seattle Seahawks’ Cover 3

Run-Back Option/s: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, David Moore

Line: +6.0 | O/U: 44.5 | Implied: 19.25 | Combined Salary: $15.6K DK | $19.0K FD

Optimal RB + DST Stacks (All Contest Types)

Cam Akers + Los Angeles Rams DST vs. New York Jets

Line: -17.0 | O/U: 43.5 | Implied for Opponent: 13.25 | Combined Salary: $11.1K DK | $11.7K FD

Derrick Henry + Tennessee Titans DST vs. Detroit Lions

Line: -11.0 | O/U: 51.5 | Implied for Opponent: 20.25 | Combined Salary: $12.9K DK | $14.1K FD

J.K. Dobbins + Baltimore Ravens DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Line: -13.0 | O/U: 47.5 | Implied for Opponent: 17.25 | Combined Salary: $9.7K DK | $10.7K FD

Leonard Fournette + Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST at Atlanta Falcons

Line: -6.0 | O/U: 49.5 | Implied for Opponent: 21.75 | Combined Salary: $7.5K DK | $9.5K FD

DraftKings’ Saturday Tiers (All Contest Types)

  • Ranked in order of Week 13 upside

  • >” = Greater upside than

  • ” = Greater than or equal upside to

  • +” = Check health status

  • “Ω” = Check status of teammate, possibility of elevated upside

Tier 1: Josh Allen > Aaron Rodger > Teddy Bridgewater > Drew Lock
Tier 2: Stefon Diggs > Aaron Jones > Mike Davis > Robby AndersonΩ
Tier 3: Curtis Samuel+ > Cole Beasley > Melvin Gordon III+Ω > Zack Moss
Tier 4: Tim Patrick Robert Tonyan > Marquez Valdes-Scantling > Jerry Jeudy > Allen Lazard
Tier 5: Gabriel Davis > Devin SingletaryNoah Fant+ > Jamaal Williams+ ≥ KJ Hamler
Tier 6: Phillip Lindsay+Ω > Dawson Knox > Ian ThomasPharoh CooperNick Vannett

DraftKings’ Afternoon Tiers (All Contest Types)

  • Ranked in order of Week 13 upside

  • >” = Greater upside than

  • ” = Greater than or equal upside to

  • +” = Check health status

  • = Will not play

  • “Ω” = Check status of teammate, possibility of elevated upside

Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes > Kyler Murray > Jalen Hurts > Jared Goff
Tier 2: Alvin Kamara > Travis Kelce Tyreek Hill > DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 3: Miles Sanders > Cooper KuppΩ > Robert Woods+ ≠ Michael Thomas
Tier 4: Cam Akers > Kenyan DrakeΩ > Jared Cook > Clyde Edwards-Helaire > Jalen Reagor
Tier 5: Christian Kirk > Emmanuel Sanders > Chase Edmonds+ ≥ Latavius Murray > Sammy Watkins > Jamison Crowder+
Tier 6: Dallas Goedert > Josh ReynoldsTyler Higbee > Breshad PerrimanΩ ≥ Le’Veon Bell > Braxton BerriosΩ > Dan Arnold > Alshon Jeffrey

DraftKings’ Primetime Tiers (All Contest Types)

  • Ranked in order of Week 13 upside

  • >” = Greater upside than

  • ” = Greater than or equal upside to

  • +” = Check health status

  • “Ω” = Check status of teammate, possibility of elevated upside

Tier 1: Ben Roethlisberger > Nick Chubb > Baker Mayfield
Tier 2: Diontae Johnson > James Conner+ > Jarvis Landry
Tier 3: JuJu Smith-Schuster > Kareem Hunt > Wayne Gallman Jr. > Chase Claypool
Tier 4: Rashard Higgins Tee Higgins > Sterling Shepard Tyler Boyd Steelers DST > Eric Ebron
Tier 5: James WashingtonDarius SlaytonEvan Engram > Giovani Bernard > Browns DST > Harrison BryantΩ > Samaje Perine
Tier 6: Benny Snell Jr.Ω ≥ Donovan Peoples-Jones > Austin Hooper+ ≥ A.J. GreenAlfred Morris > Drew SampleGolden Tate > David Njoku

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.