Welcome to Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
There are two teams on bye – Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Good luck this week!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (TNF)
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase – The good news is that the Bengals dropped back to pass 47 times and were 10th in pass rate over expectation in Week 6 with Flacco. The bad news? Well… Flacco’s average depth of throw only travelled 5.2 yards. Even though there is limited upside in shallow targets, we’ll take all of the volume that we can get. Chase ranks WR4 in targets per game (9.2), tied with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s WR6 by fantasy points per game.
Start ‘Em
D.K. Metcalf – The Steelers came out of the bye and funneled D.K. Metcalf a season-high 30% of the targets (9 total). He previously hadn’t had more than 23% of the looks in Weeks 1-4. Hopefully, this sticks. Metcalf should be pushing 25-30% of the targets weekly, given the Steelers WR/TE corps right now.
FLEX Plays
Tee Higgins – In Joe Flacco’s first start, Higgins tied his career-high in targets (8) and set new season-high marks in receiving (5/62). We’ll take it. The Steelers play the fifth-most man coverage (37%), and Higgins has actually earned more targets (0.30) per route run than Chase (0.22) when facing man-to-man.
Jaylen Warren – Unfortunately, the Steelers backfield devolved into a compartmentalized split in Week 6. Warren still led the way in carries (11) while Kenneth Gainwell took the majority of the passing down work (13 routes, 6 targets) over Warren (11 routes, 6 targets). By expected fantasy points, Warren (11.8 XFP) was just slightly ahead of Gainwell (9.0 XFP). This matchup is just outrageously good for the Steelers backfield. Pittsburgh enters Cincinnati as -5.5 road favorites. The Bengals are getting trucked for the fourth-most rushing yards per game (129.2).
Sit ‘Em
Chase Brown – This is Brown’s fourth straight week on the Sit List. His weekly finishes this season are as follows: RB24, RB34, RB45, RB36, RB24, and RB33. Disgusting. Brown is no longer getting bell cow snaps, either. Samaje Perine has cut in for 47% of the snaps over the last two weeks.
Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only. This is a good spot if you’re desperate for a streamer in 1-QB leagues. The Bengals give up the third-most passing fantasy points per game (18.4).
Joe Flacco
Jonnu Smith
Noah Fant – Will see increased work with Mike Gesicki (pec) out.
Calvin Austin – Still out with a shoulder injury.
Stash ‘Em
Kenneth Gainwell – While he’s mainly just a great bench stash (in case Warren misses more time), Gainwell is in play as a desperation FLEX for this matchup.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (London | 9:30a)
Must Start
Davante Adams – Puka Nacua’s ankle injury elevates Adams as the best WR play on the Week 6 slate. Adams already ranks WR11 by target share and WR6 in targets per game. He’s now in line to see at least 30% of the targets against a Jaguars secondary that’s getting hammered for a league-high 151 yards per game by outside wide receivers.
Start ‘Em
Kyren Williams – Death, taxes, and Kyren Williams getting a bell cow workload. The Kyren faders are furious that he ranks RB6 in snaps and RB9 by expected fantasy points per game. Blake Corum (ankle) is likely out, too.
Travis Etienne – The box score results haven’t been impressive in two tougher matchups (vs. Chiefs, Seahawks) over the last two weeks, but Etienne is still sharply out-playing and out-snapping the rookie Bhayshul Tuten. We saw Etienne play 60% of the snaps again while Tuten was down at 15% last week. He’s still a low-end RB2.
Brian Thomas Jr. – Things are starting to trend up for Thomas after a rough start to the season plagued by drops and poor QB play. BTJ took advantage of a great matchup last week vs. Seattle’s beat-up secondary for 8/90/1 receiving. The Rams predominantly play Cover-3 zone (41%) and BTJ leads the Jaguars in target share (25%) against Cover-3 looks.
Matthew Stafford – Through six weeks, Stafford is tied with Justin Herbert as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. It was a lean week for Stafford vs. Ravens, but the Rams only needed 26 pass attempts to beat Baltimore easily. This game projects much closer. The Puka Nacua injury dings his projection a bit, but Stafford is still solidly a low-end QB1. Jacksonville is allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (266.2) and will be without field general LB Devin Lloyd (calf) in London.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Whittington – In two games with more than 50% of the snaps last season, Whittington was pretty good, tallying 6/62 receiving (on eight targets) and 7/89 receiving (on 10 targets). He’s in play as a lower-end FLEX with Stafford balling at such a high level. Tutu Atwell (hamstring) is questionable.
Sit ‘Em
Puka Nacua – Out with an ankle injury.
Trevor Lawrence – His weekly finishes are as follows: QB24, QB11, QB28, QB28, QB1, and QB13. His only “usable” week above QB12 in weekly scoring came attached to 10/54/2 rushing vs. the Chiefs. Much like the Seahawks did last week, the Rams front-seven can expose the Jaguars pass protection. Los Angeles is pressuring the quarterback on 43.5% of opponents' dropbacks (eighth-highest).
Travis Hunter – If we’re looking for positives here, Hunter did set a new season-high in route share (86%) last week. He only turned those snaps into 4/15 receiving. Brutal.
Tutu Atwell – Questionable to play (hamstring).
Hunter Long
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Must Start
Rome Odunze – The film was much better than the box score for Odunze last week. Caleb Williams missed him wide open a few times, and the duo should have had an 11-yard TD, but it was called back due to penalty. One bad game hasn’t deterred me from treating Odunze as a Must-Start player. By expected fantasy points, Odunze still ranks WR9. He easily leads the Bears in target share (24%) over Olamide Zaccheaus (16%) and DJ Moore (15%).
Start ‘Em
Caleb Williams – The results for fantasy remain strong, but there are some serious concerns with Williams still. He ranks second-slowest in time to throw (2.9 seconds), which is even slower than Justin Fields (2.8 TTT). Williams ranks fourth-worst by catchable throw rate. Holding the ball too long and scattershot accuracy were primary concerns after his rookie season, too. The good news is that Ben Johnson and his surrounding cast has helped elevate Williams to QB8 by fantasy points per game (20.8). He’s a strong start this week, too. New Orleans allows the third-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.52). Only Chicago and Dallas are worse.
D’Andre Swift – Just slammed the Commanders for 175 scrimmage yards. Swift remains the most underrated RB2 in fantasy. He’s seen at least 15 touches and has gone over at least 60 scrimmage yards in five straight games.
Chris Olave – Mr. Expected Fantasy Points actually converted some of his high volume into a good game last week, posting a season-best 6/98 receiving. He’s a really strong WR2 play based on his volume, and he has a chance to hit a ceiling here in this possible shootout. Chicago is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
Alvin Kamara – Over the last two weeks, Kamara has turned his 18 carries into 58 yards. Not great. The good news is that he’s seen a small uptick in his passing down usage with five or more targets in 3 straight games. This is an awesome matchup against a weak Chicago front-seven. The Bears are getting crushed for 5.3 YPC (second-most).
Rashid Shaheed – This is another good matchup for the Saints passing game after facing the Giants and Patriots over the last two weeks. This is a spot for the Saints to take a shot deep to Shaheed. Chicago is giving up the second-highest YPA (19.7) on deep throws.
Sit ‘Em
DJ Moore – Questionable to play (groin). Moore looks like a roster clogger. His weekly finishes this season are: WR36, WR49, WR28, WR45, and WR41.
Juwan Johnson – His target share has trended down in five straight games (27% > 20% > 11% > 9% > 8%) with Olave and Shaheed as the focal points of this passing attack.
Olamide Zaccheaus
Colston Loveland
Spencer Rattler
Taysom Hill
Stash ‘Em
Kendre Miller
Luther Burden – Unfortunately, he didn’t get a post-bye rookie bump. Olamide Zaccheaus ran a season-high 67% of the routes last week, while Burden was still down at 39%.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Over his last 17 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Achane has 219/1011/8 rushing and 95/725/9 receiving (on 111 targets). That’s worth 19.0 Half-PPR FPG (RB5).
Jaylen Waddle – In three career games with Tua under center and Hill out, Waddle has piled up 20/347/2 receiving (18.9 Half-PPR FPG). If he sustains that scoring pace, it’d put him in the WR1 conversation. Cleveland’s new CB Tyson Campbell got roasted by D.K. Metcalf last week. Overall, the Browns allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. Waddle leads the team in first read targets with a whopping 35% share over the last two weeks, followed by Achane (20%) and Waller (13%).
Start ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins – Dillon Gabriel really struggled last week and dragged down this entire offense. Unfortunately, the Browns got away from Judkins for the first time all season. They won’t make the same mistake this week. Miami is getting destroyed for the most rushing yards per game (143). You’re going right back to Judkins as a RB2.
Harold Fannin – With David Njoku (knee) likely out this week, it will elevate Fannin as the only other Brown worth playing in fantasy. The rookie Fannin set a season-high in route share (74%) last week with Njoku banged up. Miami is giving up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (68.3) to opposing TEs.
Darren Waller – His box score result (2/12/1 receiving) was not great, but Waller did just set a new season-high in route share (75%) last week. That’s very promising. Waller projects as a lower end TE1.
Sit ‘Em
David Njoku – Likely out with a knee injury.
Jerry Jeudy – Has finished as WR32, WR52, WR92, WR45, WR80, and WR36 this season.
Tua Tagovailoa
Dillon Gabriel – Through two starts, Gabriel has completed 57% of his passes for a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Just 69.7% of his throws have been charted as catchable, which is third-worst among all QBs. Only Cam Ward (65%) and Russell Wilson (67%) have been less accurate.
Isaiah Bond
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes – Already has more top-8 weekly finishes this season (5) than he did in all of last year combined (4).
Rashee Rice – Welcome back! In 13 career games in which Rice has run a route on at least 60% of the Chiefs' pass plays, he’s produced 85/986/6 receiving (16.9 PPR FPG) – including the postseason. That level of output would place Rice as the WR10 by FPG over the last two seasons. Rice has earned 25% of the Chiefs' targets in his 13 games as a starter, and his target share has been above 20% in 11-of-13 contests. Mahomes and Rice have absolutely carved up opposing zone defenses over the last two seasons. Rice’s 4.23 YPRR vs. zone coverage last year easily topped Puka Nacua (3.64) for the top mark among wideouts. As a rookie, Rice averaged 2.99 YPRR against zones (seventh-best). No defense plays more zone coverage (86%) than the Raiders.
Start ‘Em
Ashton Jeanty – After a slow start (52 touches, 147 scrimmage yards) in Weeks 1-3, Jeanty has rolled over the last three weeks (67 touches, 350 scrimmage yards, 2 TDs). That’s more like it. The Raiders have clearly made Jeanty more of a focal point in the passing game, too. It’s huge for his floor and ceiling. Jeanty has 17% of the targets in back-to-back games after he did not see more than 10% of the looks in Weeks 1-4. He’s a borderline RB1 this week with the Raiders installed as huge road underdogs in Arrowhead.
Xavier Worthy – The Chiefs are more than capable of having two high-end fantasy starters. Mahomes has ranked top-5 in pass attempts in six straight seasons.
FLEX Plays
Tre Tucker – With the Raiders down Bowers already and potentially Jakobi Meyers (knee) too, they’ll have to rely on Tucker as their top receiver vs. the Chiefs. Geno Smith’s connection with Tucker has been the lone good thing going for this passing offense. Tucker has turned his 22 targets into 19/290/3 receiving over the last month.
Stream ‘Em
Michael Mayer – The Raiders are going to hold out Brock Bowers (knee) until after the bye and then reassess where he’s at. This gives Mayer one more week as a really strong streaming option. Mayer ranked TE9 by route share (80%) and he was TE2 in target share (30%) in Week 6. Sam LaPorta went for 5/55/1 receiving vs. Chiefs last week.
Sit ‘Em
Travis Kelce – In his last 12 regular-season games in which Rashee Rice has played more than 55% of the snaps, Kelce has just 53/528/1 receiving (on 74 targets). That’s worth 7.1 Half-PPR FPG (TE21).
Jakobi Meyers – Questionable to play with a knee injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Brashard Smith – Pacheco’s snap rate has trended up in three straight games (37% > 62% > 77%), but he’s still done little with his opportunities. Pacheco has finished outside of the top-30 scoring RBs on a weekly basis in 5-of-6 games. Brashard Smith remains a bench stash in deep leagues.
Marquise Brown
Tyquan Thornton
Geno Smith – Play the Chiefs D/ST.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Drake Maye – Currently the QB4 in fantasy points per game, Maye has taken a gigantic step forward as a passer this season. He’s second-best in completion rate over expectation and he’s tied with Jared Goff for fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate.
Start ‘Em
Stefon Diggs – He had a huge 50+ yard play erased by a weak DPI last week, which would have saved his lean day (3/28 receiving). Over the last three weeks, Diggs has commanded a team-high 33% of the first read targets while Kayshon Boutte (18%) and Hunter Henry (16%) are operating as the clear secondary options. Tennessee is allowing 2.4 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers (fifth-most).
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – In their first game without Antonio Gibson (ACL), we saw Stevenson set a new season-high in snaps (71%). TreVeyon Henderson remains a distant afterthought in this backfield, even in the passing game. Stevenson nearly tripled up Henderson in routes last week (15 to 6). The Patriots run game has been stuck in neutral all year long, but this is a great matchup. The Titans allow the fifth-most yards per game (124.3) on the ground.
Sit ‘Em
Hunter Henry – Since he blew up for 8/90/2 receiving vs. Steelers in Week 3, Henry has just nine targets (7/112/1 receiving) over his last three games. His only game with more than 18% of the targets was against Pittsburgh.
TreVeyon Henderson
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears – As expected, the Titans turned into an ugly committee this past week, with Spears much more involved after he missed the opening month with an ankle injury. We’ll see how new interim HC Mike McCoy treats this split. Ideally, you’re avoiding this backfield. The Patriots are a brutally tough matchup and are giving up just 3.2 YPC (fourth-fewest).
Calvin Ridley – Dealing with a hamstring injury.
Elic Ayomanor
Kayshon Boutte
Cam Ward – Play the Patriots D/ST.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets
Must Start
Rico Dowdle – The Panthers can’t turn back to Chuba Hubbard as their lead back after Dowdle just ran through the Dolphins and Cowboys for 473 scrimmage yards. The Jets did a really nice job bottling up J.K. Dobbins last week, but they’re still just an average run defense. James Cook (21/132/2 rushing), De’Von Achane (20/99/1), and Javonte Williams (16/135/1) all had success in this matchup.
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – His scoring has been a bit of a roller coaster this season. By weekly output, Hall has finished as RB10, RB41, RB31, RB19, RB8, and RB38. Carolina has played the run significantly better over the last two weeks, but they’re still not a matchup to shy away from. The Panthers are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on zone-blocking attempts (10th-most). The Jets use zone-blocking schemes on 74% of Hall’s carries.
Justin Fields – Well, we called last week. Fields melted down in a horrific matchup vs. Broncos. I thought the gameplan by the Jets was even worse than Fields’ play. When the Jets actually tried to pass the ball, they were far too conservative, effectively eliminating any hope of Fields and Wilson creating some magic down the field. Luckily, this is a far easier spot! Carolina is dead last in pressure rate forced (27%).
Tetairoa McMillan – This is an ideal matchup for McMillan to hit a big spiked week. The Jets deploy man coverage 34% of the time (sixth-highest rate), and the rookie is absolutely crushing when he gets one on one man coverage to the tune of 0.35 targets per route run and a stellar 3.77 YPRR. Both of those marks are top-5 among all receivers.
Mason Taylor – Was dragged down by the Jets disaster last week. Taylor’s usage was still strong, though. He set a new season-high in routes (86%). He’s now the only talented remaining member of this pass-catching corps and gets this dream matchup vs. Panthers (allowing second-most schedule-adjusted FP to TEs).
Sit ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – Set to miss “multiple weeks” with a knee injury. The Jets have their bye in Week 9.
Chuba Hubbard – Did return to a limited practice on Wednesday (calf).
Bryce Young
Jalen Coker – Will return this week after missing the Panthers first six games with a quad injury. Carolina is desperate for a solid secondary option behind McMillan. Hilariously, Xavier Leggette has turned his 20 targets into 50 yards of offense this season.
Josh Reynolds – Questionable to play (hip).
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – He got off to a slow start (for his standard), but Jefferson dropped two absolute hammers of 10/126 receiving and 7/123 before the bye week. He has just one TD so far, but Jefferson’s 89.8 yards per game is right in line with his career average (96 YPG). Eagles top CB Quinyon Mitchell injured his hamstring last week, and he’s questionable to play.
Start ‘Em
Jalen Hurts – You’re playing Hurts no matter what, but this matchup is pretty scary for the Eagles passing game. Vikings DC Brian Flores is a madman and will send as many blitz looks as he possibly can against the Eagles. Minnesota is blitzing more than any defense in the league (44%). Hurts hasn’t fared well when blitzed this season (4.7 ANY/A and a +0.5% completion rate above expectation) compared to his dropbacks when he’s not blitzed (7.3 ANY/A and a +3.8% CPOE).
Saquon Barkley – The Eagles haven’t blocked as well for Saquon this season, opening up 1.5 adjusted yards before contact (26th). This is after this line opened up 3.1 yards before contact (2nd) last season. This is another good matchup for this ground game to get going. The Vikings are giving up 4.8 YPC (fourth-most) and a 56% success rate (fourth-highest) vs. zone-blocking concepts, which is predominantly what the Eagles are using for Barkley (70% of his runs are zone).
Jordan Mason – In his three games without Aaron Jones (hamstring), Mason has racked up 45/225/3 rushing. The bad news is that he’s been ineffective on passing downs (6/19 receiving) in his three starts. Mason’s snap rate has trended up in every game that he’s played this season (57% > 58% > 60% > 63% > 71%).
Dallas Goedert – Way more involved this season. Goedert is currently seeing 21% of the Eagles targets, up from 17-18% over the two previous years. He’s earned more than 30% of the targets in two games this year, which he had only done once in 2023-24 combined. This is a good schematic matchup for Goedert. He leads the Eagles in targets per route run (0.24) over Brown and Smith (0.20) against two-high coverages. That’s important this week because the Vikings play two-high on 70% of opponents’ dropbacks because they blitz so much. He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in 11 out of his last 13 full games.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith - In their last two games, Philadelphia has shifted far more pass-heavy. It directly benefited both of these receivers, but especially Brown. He has at least eight targets in 5 straight games after his Week 1 dud. The Vikings' secondary is playing significantly better this season compared to last, allowing a league-low 11.7 Half-PPR FPG to opposing outside wide receivers. With this looking like a tougher matchup for Hurts, I’m treating Brown and Smith as lower-end WR2.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – Still underrated. In their last 13 games together (including playoffs), Jefferson has put up 84/1194/5 receiving on 120 targets (14.7 Half-PPR FPG | WR10) while Addison has 61/828/9 receiving on 93 targets (12.9 FPG | WR15).
Sit ‘Em
TJ Hockenson – In his last 13 games with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson has turned his 73 targets into 56/596/1 receiving (7.2 Half-PPR FPG | TE20). In their two contests before the bye, Jefferson earned 35% of the first read targets, followed by Addison at 21%. Hockenson is rarely the primary receiver. He earned just 12% of the FR targets in Weeks 4-5.
Carson Wentz – Out of the Vikings bye week, Wentz (left shoulder) returned to full practice. J.J. McCarthy (ankle) is still limited.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (4:05p)
Start ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins – Was held in check vs. Jets last week (14/40), but I’d go right back to Dobbins as one of the RB2 on this slate. The Giants have played better run defense over the last two weeks vs. Eagles and Saints, but they’re still giving up the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points on the ground.
Cam Skattebo – After a slow Week 1, he has been the Giants featured RB, racking up 484 scrimmage yards on 96 touches. Based on usage, Skattebo’s role is RB8-worthy. Tyrone Tracy will cut in on passing downs, but Skattebo has 30 carries to Tracy’s nine in their last two full games together. The Giants have the lowest team total on the slate at 16.5 points as +7 road underdogs in Denver.
Courtland Sutton – Flopped hard last week while the Broncos offense struggled to move the ball. The Giants play the second-most man coverage (42%), which should help Sutton get free in this matchup. Sutton is averaging significantly more targets per route run when facing man (0.34 TPRR) compared to zones (0.19).
Bo Nix – The Jets offense was a trainwreck last week, but the Broncos really weren’t that much better. Nix’s accuracy hasn’t been as sharp as it was last season – his off-target and catchable throw rate are both worse now than when he was a rookie. The problem is that we have two premier QBs out on bye (Allen, Jackson) and this week is short on streamers, so Nix remains a lower-end QB1 just by default. He could have a 2- or 3-TD game just because this is such a great spot for the Broncos on the ground.
FLEX Plays
Wan’Dale Robinson – In last week’s game without Nabers or Slayton, the Giants made Robinson their lead WR by routes (92% share) and targets (7). Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Jalin Hyatt were their lead outside wide receivers – Robinson kept his usual slot role (65% alignment). Broncos top CB Pat Surtain rarely covers the slot receiver (12%).
Stream ‘Em
Jaxson Dart – I wrote up Dart as a streamer in Weeks 4-5 but got off in Week 6 with a tougher matchup against the Eagles without his top two outside wide receivers. It didn’t matter! Dart has shown a high floor with QB11, QB14, and QB4 scoring weeks so far. He leads all QBs in rush attempts per start (10) over Jalen Hurts (8.3), and has at least 50 yards rushing in every game so far. Denver is his toughest test yet, by far. The Broncos are only allowing 0.27 passing FP per dropback (league-low) and they’ve forced the league’s best sack rate (13%). This is thin week for streamers, leaving Dart as the best option again, by far.
Sit ‘Em
Darius Slayton – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (hamstring).
RJ Harvey – Dobbins has 91 carries to Harvey’s 33 through six weeks. He’s played more than 33% of the snaps once all season.
Troy Franklin – Since going for 8/89/1 receiving in Week 2, Franklin has turned his 21 targets into just 12/117 receiving over the last four weeks.
Evan Engram – Second on the team in target share (16%) over the last three weeks, Engram has started to get a little more involved (13/104/1 receiving on 19 targets). He’s still just a part-time player, though. He hasn’t played more than 50% of the snaps yet this season.
Theo Johnson – This is a tough matchup. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted FP to TEs.
Marvin Mims
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (4:25p)
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor – He’ll just continue to tee off. The Chargers are starting to really struggle on run defense. Los Angeles ranks bottom-8 by yards per carry and success rate allowed.
Tyler Warren – The rookie is crushing. Warren has been the Colts primary target against zone coverage this season (0.28 TPRR), which bodes well for him this week. The Chargers play zone 79% of the time. This is a strength vs. strength matchup – Los Angeles has covered TEs pretty well this season.
Start ‘Em
Daniel Jones – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in 4-of-6 games this season. This is definitely one of Jones’ toughest matchups so far against a stingy Chargers secondary that’s allowing the third-fewest schedule-adjusted passing FP to QBs.
Justin Herbert – Since Week 1, when he finished QB5 vs. the Chiefs, Herbert has scored as QB14, QB12, QB26, QB21, and QB14. The Colts are beat up in the secondary and just allowed 375 yards and 3 TDs to Matthew Stafford in Week 4 and 320 yards/2 TDs to Jacoby Brissett in Week 6 with Geno Smith’s Week 5 disaster in between.
Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston – McConkey crushed Miami for 7/100/1 receiving last week while Johnston (hamstring) sat out. The Colts are allowing the second-most schedule adjusted FP to WRs. McConkey has immediately rebounded and earned 21% and 24% of the Chargers targets in his last two games since his season-low 15% in Week 4.
Keenan Allen – Didn’t see a bump in routes with Johnston out last week. Allen still has earned seven or more targets in every game, but his ceiling is clearly limited with McConkey trending up and Johnston likely back.
Kimani Vidal – The Chargers rode Vidal’s hot hand last week to 138 scrimmage yards and a TD against a terrible Miami defense. Vidal vastly out-snapped Hasaan Haskins by a 67% to 31% margin. At worst, he’s a high-end FLEX in this spot. The Chargers have the seventh-best implied team total (27 points) for Week 7.
FLEX Plays
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs – Tyler Warren leads this team in targets and first reads, which has really limited the ceilings of these receivers. Downs is still just a part-time player in this offense, but he’s at least getting targeted when he’s on the field. Downs has 15 targets and 12/96/1 receiving over the last two weeks while Pittman has been less involved (7/59/1 receiving on nine targets). Downs is questionable to play (concussion).
Sit ‘Em
Alec Pierce
Hasaan Haskins
Stash ‘Em
Oronde Gadsden – Continue to stash in TE premium leagues. Gadsden’s route share continues to increase every week (28% > 43% > 53% > 69%) while the Chargers are trying out more 3-WR packages that feature the rookie.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (4:25p)
This is the best game environment that we’ve had all season. Dallas’ games have combined to average 59.2 points scored. The Cowboys have allowed a TD on 53% of their opponents' possessions, which is tied with the Ravens for second-worst. Only the Dolphins (60%) are getting scored on more often.
Must Start
Javonte Williams – In two games without Miles Sanders, we’ve seen Dallas lean even harder on Williams. He’s a full blown bell cow with an 80% snap rate and 81% of the RB carries while the rookie Jaydon Blue barely mixes in.
CeeDee Lamb – Welcome back! Lamb returned to limited practice on Wednesday, and he’s trending towards playing. Lamb opened up hot with 16/222 receiving in Weeks 1-2 before getting injured in Chicago. We have some injury docks on Lamb’s projection, and he’s still WR5. Washington allows a league-high 100.2 yards per game to slot receivers.
Jayden Daniels – Dallas has allowed 24 or more FP to 5-of-6 QBs that they’ve faced.
Dak Prescott – Having a career-best year, and now Lamb is back. Dak is among the top-2 QBs in accurate and catchable throw rate while taking a career-low sacks (2.9%). He’s third in passing yards per game (269.5), and has scored as a top-8 QB in four out of his last 5 starts.
Jake Ferguson – In their first two games together, Lamb (24) led the Cowboys in targets, followed by Ferguson (18) and Pickens (12).
Start ‘Em
George Pickens – After a slow Week 1, Pickens has erupted for 29/495/6 receiving over his last five games. Lamb’s return means that Pickens is no longer going to be the top target, but the Cowboys are now like the Rams and Bengals (when Burrow is healthy). Like Nacua-Adams and Chase-Higgins, these Cowboys receivers have great pocket QB play and condensed targets around their top two wideouts. Pickens is still a low-end WR1.
Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin – If we knew this duo were 100% healthy, they’d be Must Start. Hopefully, we’ll see them both on the field again. Samuel is nursing a heel injury, and was lightly involved last week (5 targets). McLaurin was able to return to limited practice on Wednesday. He’s missed the last three games with a quad injury. If McLaurin is back, you can’t ask for a better matchup. Dallas allows a league-high 26.4 Half-PPR FPG to opposing outside wide receivers
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Even though he fumbled again last week, the Commanders just gave him a season-high 67% of the snaps. Washington has made Croskey-Merritt their clear featured RB. Over the last two weeks, he’s taken 79% of the RB carries. Attached to this Washington offense that’s implied to score 28 points (third-most), he’s among the best RB2 plays for Week 7.
Zach Ertz – Bounced back in an ideal matchup last week. Ertz is on the low-end TE1 borderline with Samuel and McLaurin both on the field, but in this high scoring game environment, Ertz remains in play. Over his last 21 games with Jayden Daniels starting, Ertz averages 10.6 PPR points per game (~TE11).
Stash ‘Em
Jaydon Blue
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (4:25p)
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Has scored 22 TDs in 22 games with Green Bay. The Packers have really started to involve Jacobs more as a receiver, further boosting his outlook in fantasy. Jacobs has 14/172 receiving over the last three weeks after he was barely involved (one catch, 4 yards) to open the season. Jacobs ran a route on a season-high 61% of the Packers pass plays last week.
Trey McBride – Just posted a season-best 8/72/1 receiving with Jacoby Brissett under center. Green Bay is allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FP to tight ends, making McBride the best TE play on this slate.
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Tied with Sam Darnold for the league-high in adjusted net yards per pass attempt when kept clean. Love is playing extremely efficient football – his only issue is that the Packers haven’t needed to throw the ball all that often. Love has attempted more than 31 passes once this season (vs. Dallas in OT). Arizona’s front-seven ranks inside of the bottom-10 defenses in pressure and sack rate.
Tucker Kraft – Scored a TD last week, but just earned a season-low 8% target share. He’s not yet seen more than 19% of the targets in a single game. Kraft ranks TE3 in yards per route run (2.3) but is TE26 in targets per game (4.2). Forced to live off of lower volume, Kraft has to turn his few looks into explosive plays and TDs. This is another good matchup. The Cardinals are giving up the third-most yards per game to TEs (69.5).
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – It’ll be interesting to see if the Cardinals go back to Kyler Murray after Jacoby Brissett threw for 320 yards in Week 6, largely without Harrison. He’s in concussion protocol. Harrison was limited in practice on Wednesday. If he’s able to get cleared, Harrison will be right back in the WR3/FLEX mix.
Matthew Golden – The Cardinals predominantly play two-high safety coverage (58% | fifth-highest), which should favor Golden in this matchup. Golden leads the Packers in targets (0.24) and yards (3.27) on a per-route basis over Doubs (0.16 TPRR | 0.93 YPRR) and Kraft (0.16 TPRR | 1.78) against two-high safety coverages.
Romeo Doubs – Even though this matchup tilts towards Golden, Doubs leads the Packers in target share in back-to-back games. If the Cardinals keep this game relatively close and force Green Bay to drop back 30 times, Love can support multiple good scores for his receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Bam Knight and Michael Carter – The Cardinals went with a backfield split last week as Knight played significantly more. Ideally, you can avoid this committee. Green Bay has been great vs. the run, allowing just 69.6 yards per game (fourth-fewest).
Jacoby Brissett
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (SNF)
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Has absolutely exploded for a league-high 822 scrimmage yards in his first five games.
Christian McCaffrey – Only four players are averaging more targets per game than CMC (9.5). The 49ers have struggled to run the ball all season and are opening up the second-fewest yards before contact per carry, but that matters little with this insane receiving role. Atlanta is going to try and blitz the 49ers as much as they can. CMC leads the 49ers in targets per route run (0.35) when his QB is blitzed.
Drake London – Has gone off for 8/110/1 receiving and 10/158/1 over the last two weeks with Darnell Mooney (hamstring) out. In their 18 games together, London has 98/1188/7 receiving (11.7 Half-PPR FPG | WR26) while Mooney has 70/1056/5 receiving (9.5 FPG | WR45).
Start ‘Em
George Kittle – Welcome back! Kittle returned to limited practice this week, and he’s trending towards playing in Week 7. He’s missed Weeks 2-6 with a hamstring injury. We have some injury docks on Kittle in the projections, and he’s still TE3. Even if he’s a bit limited in his first game back, Kittle is in our lineups.
Brock Purdy / Mac Jones – I have a lot of respect for the Falcons re-tooled pass rush and improved defense overall, but the 49ers lead the league in passing yards (1,838) over the Rams (1,684). This passing attack is rolling, despite all of their injuries on offense. Purdy was apparently “more limited” than Jones on Wednesday (per HC Kyle Shanahan). Whether it’s another week of Jones or Purdy is back, we’ll have them projected as a lower-end QB1 option.
FLEX Plays
Kendrick Bourne – Remains the 49ers lone healthy, good receiver. Bourne has turned his 20 targets into 15/284 receiving over the last two weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings – Pearsall (knee) still isn’t practicing. Jennings is trying to play through multiple injuries and was barely involved last week (3 targets, 1/7 receiving).
Darnell Mooney – Nursing a hamstring injury.
Kyle Pitts – Has earned more than 19% of the targets in one game all season.
Michael Penix
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (MNF Game 1 | 7p)
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Has seven or more receptions in five-straight games. St. Brown has doubled up Jameson Williams in targets (14 to 7) when the defense blitzes, and he’s turned those looks into an unreal 13/199/2 receiving.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Ended his incredible 22-game streak in which he finished as a top-24 scoring RB in PPR last week. The Buccaneers have been stellar against the run this season, allowing just 3.1 YPC (second-fewest). Gibbs remains Must Start, but Lions HC Dan Campbell did say that he wanted to “even out” the carries between Montgomery and Gibbs a bit.
Rachaad White – This is a tougher matchup, but White’s role right now is among the best in fantasy. Over the last two weeks, White has taken 78% of the Buccaneers RB carries and ranks RB5 in route participation (64%). Without Bucky Irving, we’re seeing White get CMC-lite usage.
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Who cares who his receivers are!? Mayfield has opened this season with QB11, QB16, QB9, QB10, QB7, and QB11 scoring weeks. Just keep rolling him. Mayfield will be pushed heavily on the scoreboard this week, and this Lions secondary is reeling. Detroit allows the seventh-most passing fantasy points per game.
Jared Goff – Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.9 fantasy points per game (QB7) in 37 starts as a favorite. However, his output dips dramatically when the Lions are underdogs to just 14.2 FPG across 33 starts. When you face Tampa Bay, you had better be prepared to handle blitzes. The Buccaneers blitz fifth-most often (36%). Goff has been stellar when facing extra pass rushers, leading all QBs in YPA (10.7). He hasn’t taken a sack on 37 blitzed dropbacks.
Mike Evans – With the rookie Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) set to miss a few games and Chris Godwin’s season looking lost (leg), the Buccaneers are hoping that Evans can return to practice this week. He’s missed three games with a hamstring injury. Based on volume, Evans’ role was WR1-worthy before he got injured. He ranked WR8 in targets per game and WR7 by expected fantasy points. If he’s able to go, Evans could crush this Lions secondary that’s missing CBs D.J. Reed (I.R.) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder).
Sam LaPorta – Currently averaging slightly more yards per game (54) now than in his breakout rookie season (52.3). LaPorta remains a set-and-forget, mid-range TE1.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – Buccaneers-Lions has the second-highest over/under (52.5 points) on the slate, making Williams an enticing boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX in this likely shootout. After sitting around a 14% target share in Weeks 1-3, we’ve seen Williams spike up to 30% and 24% of the targets in two out of his last three games.
David Montgomery
Stream ‘Em
Cade Otton – Over his last five games without Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin, Otton has piled up 35/344/2 receiving (12.8 Half-PPR FPG | ~TE4). It’s very close between Mayer and Otton as the top streaming TE on this slate, but I lean towards Otton because I believe in his QB way more.
Sit ‘Em
Bucky Irving – Will likely miss a third consecutive game with a shoulder injury.
Emeka Egbuka – Set to miss time with a strained hamstring.
Chris Godwin – Out again (leg).
Tez Johnson – Led the Buccaneers WRs in route share (84%) over Sterling Shepard (72%) and Kameron Johnson (48%) last week. He’s in play as a desperation FLEX attached to Mayfield and this likely shootout.
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (MNF Game 2 | 10p)
Must Start
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – Just went scorched earth on the Jaguars for 8/162/1 receiving. JSN leads all WRs in target share (34%) and yards per game (116).
Start ‘Em
Nico Collins – After a slow Week 1 with just 3/25 receiving, Collins turned his 31 targets into 19/287/3 receiving over his last four games. Seattle’s secondary is beat up with injuries, but their pass rush will have the advantage over the Texans' poor offensive line. Collins is a high-end WR2 with a WR1 ceiling in this spot.
FLEX Plays
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet – The Seahawks' backfield is a migraine for fantasy football. In their five games together, Walker leads this backfield in carries (62 to 60) and targets (8 to 5) by a slim margin while Charbonnet cleans up in short-yardage/goal-line situations. Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker by a 20 to 5 margin inside-the-10. They’re both lower-end FLEX options again. Houston is playing good run defense again and is allowing just 3.8 YPC (ninth-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Sam Darnold – Over the last four weeks, Darnold has popped up as a viable streamer with QB10, QB17, QB3, and QB9 scoring outings. His 6.8 TD% and 9.6 YPA are both career-high marks, while he’s cut his sack rate in half (4.2%) compared to his previous career average. Darnold is balling. He’ll be on the top-12 radar for the rest of the season, but this is a really tough matchup. Houston is holding opposing QBs to a league-low 9.2 passing fantasy points per game.
C.J. Stroud – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in just four of his last 20 games.
Woody Marks and Nick Chubb – Seattle is allowing a league-low 2.96 yards per carry and they’re the only team that hasn’t allowed an explosive play (15+ yards) on the ground yet this season. There’s a chance that Marks gets a post-bye rookie bump after this backfield went back to being a committee in Week 5 between Marks (38% of snaps), Chubb (35%), and Dameon Pierce (24%).
AJ Barner – Has earned more than three targets in a game just once all season, but he continues to capitalize on his limited opportunities. Barner has turned his 19 targets into a clean 17/205/4 receiving. Houston has been great vs. TEs (35 yards per game allowed | second-fewest).
Dalton Schultz
Christian Kirk
Tory Horton
