Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 7. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
My Typical Posting Schedule
Mondays 9 to 11 a.m. — Initial ATS picks
Wednesdays 3 to 6 p.m. — Initial Player Props
Thursdays 3 to 5 p.m. — Second wave of Player Props
Fridays 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Third wave of Player Props
Saturday 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. — Fourth wave of Player Props
Sunday 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. — Final Players Props
Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 62-35 (63.9%, +21.8 units); Week 6: 6-7 (-1.73 units)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Noah Fant (Cin) over 25.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings) (W)
- Fant has reached 3+ receptions in four of five games with 26 to 28 yards in each of those contests, he hasn’t topped a 46% route share in any game but that will change with Gesicki (pec) and Hudson (concussion) unlikely to play, PIT gives up the fifth-most receptions (6.4) and the second-most receiving YPG (71.4) to TEs, Fannin (7/81 receiving) and Njoku (3/28) combined for 20.9 FP in this matchup last week, CIN enters as 5.5-point home underdogs. Bet to 28.5 yards. Placed at 8:32 a.m. on Oct. 15.
Chase Brown (Cin) under 13.5 rushing attempts (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP Projection: 10.7 attempts, 10 or fewer attempts in four straight games, Perine posted a 46% snap share in back-to-back games and a season-high 6 carries last week, PIT run defense has tightened up in the last two games after limiting Judkins (12/36 rushing) and Mason (16/57). Bet to 12.5 attempts. Placed at 8:59 a.m. on Oct. 15
