Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. JAX ($6.4K DK | $7.3K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 5-7%)
Not only has Kirk Cousins continued his dominance of man coverage schemes, he’s been one of the top-five QBs in both fantasy and reality for well over the last month:
Unfortunately for some, nowhere near enough attention is being paid to Cousins in DFS. I’ll admit that I’ll still need to see a bit more success from him when facing featuredCover 2,Cover 4, andCover 6 defenses. But he has shown strides this season toward correcting those improper zone reads. The NFL recently recognized his work facing one of those defenses:
What I simply cannot stress enough is that “Captain Kirk” is a MUST start whenever we see him face a team with man coverage rates around 35 percent or more. For the kids at home, 13 NFL teams fit that profile. One of those happens to be Jacksonville, who Minnesota will host at U.S. Bank Stadium. Depending on where you look, Cousins’ projected ownership can be found as low as four percent, and as high as 8.5 percent -- that latter number can actually be found atFantasy Points, which I think is a tad higher than we’ll see.
The Bottom Line: I’llrepeat this for everyone: during 28 games since the start of 2019 opposed by Cover 1, Cousins ranks first overall with 0.56 FPDb, first with a 112.8 passer rating, and in conjunction with a 20 percent increase in YPA. On 22 percent of dropbacks over that same time, he’s accumulated 29 percent of his yardage, and 35 percent of his total TDs. The Jaguars have played with the seventh-highest rate of Cover 1 shells this season. Coming in as 10-point home favorites, the Vikings’ passing offense does risk being shut down early if the score gets away from the Jags. However, OC Gary Kubiak passed along that Dalvin Cook is currently “beat up” and that they will need to get him “freshened up” this week. HC Mike Zimmer further stated:
Even with Cook expected to play, we can expect to see a reduction in his touches. Alexander Mattison simply does not live on Planet Elite with Cook, very few do. Do not hesitate to fire up Cousins wherever possible!
Mike Glennon, JAX at MIN ($4.8K DK | $6.8K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)
Yeah, ludicrous comes to mind when thinking of exposure to Mike Glennon. Glennon has been a punching bag across the nation since he signed a three-year pact with the Bears for $45 million -- $15 million guaranteed -- prior to the 2017 season. The “Ginger Giraffe” would play four games for Chicago before being benched in favor of Mitchell Trubisky, and released prior to the 2018 league year. Well, eight years of NFL experience appear to have been enough for “Napoleon Dynamite” to pull together his strengths.
Cleveland’s isn’t exactly a top-five secondary, I wouldn’t even rank them as a top-five zone defense. But they have limited opposing QBs to the seventh-lowest FPG over the three games prior to Week 12, and limiting each to 15 FPs or less. Keep in mind, Glennon was without the Jaguars’ best WR, D.J. Chark Jr., in Week 12. Putting an end to their string of QB containment, Glennon connected with Collin Johnson on thisthrow with the Browns in Cover 3.
He would go nine-of-11 for 141 yards and that TD against the three-deep zone of Cleveland. Glennon has always been a capable QB when facing man coverage (seven-of-eight for 78 yards in W12).Here we see his second TD from last week with the Browns in a red zone (man) scheme. Glennon’s put together a career 38-20 TD-INT ratio thanks to his outstanding work in the red zone and goal-to-go situations. However, his previous inability to diagnose zone schemes cost him his chance for a more prominent NFL career after a strong rookie season.
The Bottom Line: No need to mince words here. We wouldn’t be rostering Glennon expecting him to reinvent the wheel. At $4.8K/$6.8K salaries, we just need him to give us 14.4/20.4 FPs to reach floor value. As you can see from those numbers, Glennon is a far greater value on DK than FD. Minnesota will provide Glennon with around one-fourth of snaps in man, one-fourth in Cover 3, the second-highest rate of Cover 2, and 12th-highest of Cover 4. The Vikings are permitting the seventh-most FPG to QBs (17.42), eighth-highest YPA (7.3), seventh-highest rate of 20-plus hookups (15.4 percent), and second-highest of 40-plus (4.1 percent). Tourney-dart stacks of Glennon with Chark, a Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen at run-back would allow us to roster Derrick Henry alongside another $7K-plus RB. Tasty.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. CLE ($6.2K DK | $7.8K FD | O/U: 54.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-5%)
Philip Rivers, IND vs. HOU ($6.2K DK | $7.8K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)
Derek Carr, LV vs. NYJ ($5.8K DK | $7.2K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-6%)
Damien Harris, NE at LAC ($5.2K DK | $5.9K FD | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)
As you can see from my optimal RB + DST stacks below, I feel Damien Harris deserves some Cash/SE love this week. The Pats will face one of the top-10, arguably top-five when Melvin Ingram is healthy, pass rushes from the Chargers. LAC will also get Chris Harris Jr. back this week to help offset another potential game without Casey Hayward Jr.. For New England, they’ve had full participation in practice the last two days ahead of their road showdown in Inglewood.
Here are Harris’ carry shares from the last six weeks: 71, 67, 50, 79, 55, and 74 percent. From a RB mainly viewed for his ground potential running behind a top-three O-line, providing us with season-high’s in routes run over the last two weeks (23 and 30 percent) is promising. Averaging 15.4 carries over his last five, Harris has also provided 38 percent more FPG in road games.
The Bottom Line: Don’t buy into the fact that Los Angeles has only allowed 120.5 rushing YPG this season (15th). They’ve supported the third-highest YPC (4.8), second-highest rate of 20-plus runs (3.96 percent) to opposing backfields. Opposing offenses have simply failed to capitalize. Their current 13.6 pure rushing FPG to RBs (14th) overall is on the rise after allowing 20.1 over their last four (fourth-most). Harris’ involvement should continue to rise following the knee injury that forced Rex Burkhead onto IR, opening up an additional 10.1 touches/game. Needless to say, I will also have GPP stock in James White this week.
Devontae Booker, LV at NYJ ($5.5K DK | $6.0K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: 7-12%)
My analysis was already written up for Devontae Booker when this nugget dropped:
Unfortunately, the news should reach enough of the DFS field to push Booker toward chalk ownership numbers when I held out hope that it would stay under five percent. I was already on Booker even if Josh Jacobs found his way onto the field. In light of the news, the GPP potential of Jalen Richard is now on the rise.
It’s really a shame that the Jets’ offense has been unable to live up to its end of the deal. Prior to the majority of their secondary landing on IR, New York’s run defense proved formidable. These days, an absolutely stacked D-line consisting of Folorunso Fatukasi, Quinnen Williams, and Henry Anderson will have a difficult time pulling the weight of the entire defense. After giving up the ninth-most FPG to RBs this season (24.7), the Jets have obliged the sixth-most pure receiving FPG (12.5), third-highest red zone touch average (6.3), and sixth-highest goal-to-go carry average (2.3) over their last three.
The Bottom Line: Booker offers us untapped potential through the air to go along with similar efficiency on the ground to that of Jacobs (54.1 elusive rating for Jacobs, 51.5 for Booker). Most importantly, Jacobs’ absence will leave 22.1 touches/game (sixth-highest) on the table. Enough of those will land in Richard’s pocket to push him into relevance. New York is handing over the fifth-most FPG to entire offenses overall (102.2), the most over the last three weeks (124.4). Booker is expected to have a feast on his plate combined with a positive game script as 8.5-point road favs.
James White, NE at LAC ($5.0K DK | $5.7K FD | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn%: 4-8%)
Frank Gore, NYJ vs. LV ($4.4K DK | $5.3K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 3-5%)
Jalen Richard, LV at NYJ ($4.0K DK | $4.5K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: <1%)
Jamaal Williams, GB vs. PHI ($6.1K DK | $5.2K FD | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn%: >1%)
Adam Thielen, MIN vs. JAX ($7.3K DK | $7.8K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 5-13%)
Judging by the range of projections out there, nobody seems to agree on the ownership expectations for Adam Thielen this week. Some are as low as five percent, while we have Thielen listed for upwards of 13 percent. The former is certainly more ideal for our purposes, but I’m perfectly fine with the latter number. In fact, both Thielen and Justin Jefferson should be listed at the top alongside Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Allen Robinson II.
The Jaguars will be without C.J. Henderson, D.J. Hayden, and breakout shadow corner Sidney Jones. Simply the absolute worst time to be shorthanded for the Cover 1 defense. As already explained for Kirk Cousins, Minnesota was intentionally constructed as a lethal Cover 1 annihilator.
The Bottom Line: Since I’ve already coveredanalysis on Thielen and Jefferson this week, I’ll keep this very simply. Thielen ranks third among all receivers over the last two seasons with 0.72 FPs/route -- a 55 percent increase -- when facing Cover 1 schemes. On 27 percent of overall routes run, he’s come up with 33 percent of his receiving yards, and 46 percent of his TDs.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND at HOU ($4.9K DK | $5.6K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 4-9%)
It appears that I might have been a week early in touting Michael Pittman Jr.. Coming off a 7/101/0 performance on TNF in Week 10, and3/66/1 the following week, I anticipated a rematch across from Malcolm Butler would be profitable. Tennessee DC Jim Haslett learned his lesson, moving Butler onto T.Y. Hilton, and ghosting Pittman with Breon Borders. Pittman did sneak away from Borders to catch 2/28/0 within the coverage of Kevin Byard, but fell 68 percent shy of covering floor value.
I feel that the ownership projection on Pittman (13.6 percent) is far too high. Despite seeing a healthy nine targets last week, I am counting on recency bias from that 4.8-point outing to scare away the field. The suspension of Bradley Roby does leave the Houston secondary with a weekly DFS target on their foreheads the rest of the season. However, history suggests that the populous will hesitate to act until they have a statistical trail to prove the loss will make a difference. Trust me when I say that it will be a monumental loss.
The Bottom Line: Another reason that I feel Pittman’s ownership will still teeter around four-to-six percent in GPPs is due to Philip Rivers’ ownership numbers. They are so low in some locations that I’ve seen him entirely left off a few lists. It is nearly a guarantee that Rivers will be good for at least 20 FPs in this smash spot. The fact that a ton of people will be on Brandin Cooks does push Pittman up a percentage point or two as a run-back. Regardless, a 20-plus target share facing this secondary will prove to be DFS fire in Week 13.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB vs. PHI ($4.4K DK | $5.7K FD | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)
I simply love me some Davante Adams this week. In his last two matchups across from a Darius Slay shadow, Adams has a combined 16/233/2 line. However, the only way we can get away with Adams exposure in GPPs is by individualizing our lineups with unique stacks. I’ve listed information on the multitude of different Green Bay GPP stacks below. The one I’ll be on the most consists of Aaron Rodgers, Adams, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
In fact, I will also run Valdes-Scantling naked in what I feel is a great spot for him. With Slay tailing Adams, MVS will see a lot of Avonte Maddox, easily one of the most generous CBs this season. With 241 snaps in coverage during 2020 under his belt, Maddox is tolerating 1.41 yards per coverage snap (93rd out of 132 qualified outside CBs), 0.30 FPs/coverage snap (89th), and 10.3 FPG to his coverage responsibilities (86th).
The Bottom Line: While it wasn’t against Cover 1,this 78-yard catch-and-run TD against the Jaguars in Cover 3 -- data in the above graphic -- offers a glimpse of Valdes-Scantling’s potential facing a stylistically similar secondary to the Eagles. Marquez finished that Week 10 victory over Jacksonville with a 6/149/1 line. I’m removing Week 7 from the numbers when Bradley Roby was injured early, leading to Adams’ 13/196/2 day on 16 targets. In his remaining three games against defenses featuring at least 32 percent of Cover 1 and 25 percent of Cover 3 snaps, MVS is seeing an average of seven targets/game. With Allen Lazard back in the fold, defenses are unable to focus as much attention on Valdes-Scantling.
Sterling Shepard, NYG at SEA ($5.3K DK | $5.6K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: 3-5%)
D.J. Chark Jr., JAX at MIN ($5.4K DK | $6.3K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-5%)
A.J. Brown, TEN vs. CLE ($7.6K DK | $8.2K FD | O/U: 54.0 | ExpOwn%: 4-6%)
Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. LV ($5.1K DK | $6.2K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-5%)
Henry Ruggs III, LV at NYJ ($4.5K DK | $5.4K FD | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)
Adam Humphries, TEN vs. CLE ($3.2K DK | $4.9K FD | O/U: 54.0 | ExpOwn%: >1%)
Dallas Goedert, PHI at GB ($4.3K DK | $6.2K FD | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn%: 4-7%)
I’ve received so many questions from fantasy owners this week worried that the return of Zach Ertz will kill the upside of Dallas Goedert. Judging by the expected ownership numbers, it’s quite clear that DFS degenerates mirror those concerns. Before I chime in, the following tweet can get us started:
We have two games with both on the field for Philadelphia this season. In Weeks 1 & 2, Goedert ran 72.5 percent of routes to Ertz’s 83, and Goedert led Ertz in target share at 19 to 17 percent, respectively. Ertz (7.5) may lead Goedert (6.1) in targets/game this season, but Goedert has nearly doubled him up in route efficiency (1.43 vs. 0.75 YPRR). Goedert has a passer rating on his targets of 106.5 compared to 53.9 for Ertz. And don’t discount the fact that, since Travis Fulgham fell off the map, Goedert has been the No. 1 weapon for the struggling Carson Wentz.
The Bottom Line: If you want to target your Ertz return concerns at a TE, direct it at Richard Rodgers, not Goedert. The 26, 11, and 11 percent target shares for Rodgers over the last three weeks will likely be soaked up by Ertz. Since we are searching for ways to differentiate our Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams stacks, a run-back of Goedert will go a long way.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. JAX ($3.4K DK | $5.0K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: >1-4%)
I’ve made it perfectly clear that I will be all over the Minnesota passing offense this week. The expected reduction in volume for Dalvin Cook is music to my ears. While I would first look to Irv Smith Jr. at TE from the Vikings, we received an update on his status today:
The Bottom Line: Well, that settles that matter. In two games for Kyle Rudolph without Smith, he’s combined for 11/131/0 on 11 targets. Those receiving lines average out to 11.6/8.8 FPG. I’m counting on the 0.5 PPR on FD to push some of the field off Rudolph at $5K. However, both of those games for Rudolph were facing zone-heavy defenses. I think this will be a week where we get somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6/60/1 line from Rudolph. That would provide enough to cover floor value on both platforms.
Anthony Firkser, TEN vs. CLE ($2.5K DK | $4.6K FD | O/U: 54.0 | ExpOwn%: >1%)
Trey Burton, IND at HOU ($3.5K DK | $5.5K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-4%)
Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET ($2.5K DK | $4.4K FD | O/U: 45.0 | ExpOwn%: 1-3%)
Indianapolis Colts, IND at HOU ($3.0K DK | $4.6K FD | O/U: 51.0 | ExpOwn%: 2-6%)
Los Angeles Rams, LAR at ARI ($3.2K DK | $4.5K FD | O/U: 48.5 | ExpOwn%: 2-5%)
Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. CLE ($2.9K DK | $3.9K FD | O/U: 54.0 | ExpOwn%: >1-2%)
GPP Passing Game Stacks
Pay particular attention to the labels between each receiving option. Here are the guidelines:
Plus (+) = Optimal receiving stack
Plus/Minus (+/-) = Triple stack option
Plus/or (+/or) = More than one optimal receiving stack and worthy triple stack option
Or = More than one worthy secondary option in a triple stack
The combined salary listings are calculated triple stacks consisting of the QB plus the first two receiving options.
Kirk Cousins + Adam Thielen +/or Justin Jefferson +/- Kyle Rudolph
Minnesota Vikings’ 11 | 12 Personnel vs. Jacksonville Jaguars’ Cover 1 | 3
Line: -10.0 | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 30.5 | Combined Salary: $20.6K DK | $22.8K FD
Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams +/- Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Allen Lazard or Robert Tonyan or Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams
Green Bay Packers’ 11 | 21 | 12 Personnel vs. Philadelphia Eagles’ Cover 1
Line: -8.5 | O/U: 48.0 | Implied: 28.25 | Combined Salary: $20.2K DK | $23.7K FD
Tennessee Titans’ 11 | 12 Personnel vs. Cleveland Browns’ Cover 3 | 4
Line: -5.5 | O/U: 54.0 | Implied: 29.75 | Combined Salary: $18.9K DK | $22.1K FD
New Orleans Saints’ 11 Personnel at Atlanta Falcons’ Cover 1 | 2 | 3
Line: -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | Implied: 24.0 | Combined Salary: $18.0K DK | $20.2K FD
Derek Carr + Darren Waller +/or Henry Ruggs III or Hunter Renfrow or Nelson Agholor
Las Vegas Raiders’ 11 | 12 Personnel at New York Jets’ Cover 2 | 6
Line: -8.5 | O/U: 47.0 | Implied: 27.75 | Combined Salary: $16.4K DK | $19.6K FD
Mike Glennon + D.J. Chark +/or Keelan Cole
Jacksonville Jaguars’ 11 Personnel at Minnesota Vikings’ Cover 2
Line: +10.0 | O/U: 51.0 | Implied: 20.5 | Combined Salary: $14.0K DK | $18.8K FD
Optimal RB + DST Stacks (All Contest Types)
David Mongomery + Chicago Bears DST vs. Detroit Lions
Line: -3.0 | O/U: 45.0 | Implied for Opponent: 21.0 | Combined Salary: $8.6K DK | $10.4K FD
Derrick Henry + Tennessee Titans DST vs. Cleveland Browns
Line: -5.5 | O/U: 54.0 | Implied for Opponent: 24.25 | Combined Salary: $12.1K DK | $13.9K FD
Chris Carson + Seattle Seahawks DST vs. New York Giants
Line: -10.5 | O/U: 47.0 | Implied for Opponent: 18.25 | Combined Salary: $9.6K DK | $12.7K FD
Damien Harris + New England Patriots DST at Los Angeles Chargers
Line: Even | O/U: 47.5 | Implied for Opponent: 23.75 | Combined Salary: $7.6K DK | $9.6K FD
DraftKings’ Afternoon Tiers (All Contest Types)
Ranked in order of Week 13 upside
“>” = Greater upside than
“≥” = Greater than or equal upside to
“+” = Check health status
Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers > Justin Herbert > Russell Wilson > Kyler Murray
Tier 2: Davante Adams > DK Metcalf > Keenan Allen > DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 3: Austin Ekeler ≥ Cooper Kupp ≥ Aaron Jones > Miles Sanders > Tyler Lockett
Tier 4: Chris Carson > Robert Woods > Kenyan Drake > Wayne Gallman Jr. > Robert Tonyan
Tier 5: James White > Sterling Shepard > Jakobi Meyers > Allen Lazard > Travis Fulgham > Carlos Hyde+
Tier 6: Dallas Goedert > Chase Edmonds ≥ Mike Williams ≥ Evan Engram > Hunter Henry ≥ Christian Kirk
DraftKings’ Primetime Tiers (All Contest Types)
Ranked in order of Week 13 upside
“>” = Greater upside than
“≥” = Greater than or equal upside to
“+” = Check health status
“Ω” = Check status of teammate, possibility of elevated upside