2025 Week 8 DFS Coverage Shells

I hope you’ve all had a great week!

The following teams are on a bye in Week 8:

• Arizona Cardinals

• Detroit Lions

• Jacksonville Jaguars

• Las Vegas Raiders

• Los Angeles Rams

• Seattle Seahawks

This is the first instance this season with many teams on bye, so it’s slimmer pickings for favorable matchups at our disposal.

There aren’t any overseas matchups this week, and there’s only one game on Monday night. 6 of the 10 games on the Sunday main slate are being played outdoors, so it’s essential to make note of weather forecasts as the weekend progresses.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

DAL @ DEN

The Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1) travel to Colorado to take on the Denver Broncos (5-2) at 4:25 PM EDT on Sunday. The Broncos are currently 3.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 50.5 points.

DAL is coming off its most dominant performance of the year, beating WAS by a final score of 44-22, while DEN is coming off a thrilling 33-22 victory vs the NYG on a last-second game-winning field goal.

The 50.5 point total is the highest projected scoring game in all of Week 8.

Dak Prescott ($6,500) is priced as the DK QB4 on the Sunday main slate and Bo Nix ($6,000) is priced as the QB8.

DAL and DEN both rank top ten among offenses in pass rate over expected. Prescott and Nix rank top ten in fantasy PPG. They’re both top five in sack avoidance, as Prescott has been sacked on just 8.5% of his pressures and Nix on just 9.2% of his.

DAL has been a juggernaut on offense. They rank 2nd in the NFL in EPA per play (+0.18) and rank 3rd in EPA per dropback (+0.29). On defense, however, it’s been quite the opposite picture. DAL ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed (+0.15) and 30th in EPA per dropback allowed (+0.22).

DEN is not as strong of a team offensively, but is way stronger than DAL on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 5th in EPA per play allowed (-0.07) and rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed (-0.05).

At home vs a below-average DAL defense, it’s easy to see why DEN owns the 3rd-highest team total on the main slate at 27 points. DAL being projected with 23.5 points on the road against this quality DEN defense is a testament to Dak Prescott and the DAL offense this season.

Let’s take a look at the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

Defensively, DAL has allowed the most PPG to opposing QBs (26.7) and the 2nd-most PPG to opposing WRs (40.5).

This season, DAL has deployed the 2nd-most zone coverage in the NFL (80%) and rank 10th in usage of two-high shells (53%).

It’s important to note DAL played in man on 50% of their coverage snaps and single-high on 83% of their snaps in last week’s victory over WAS.

DC Matt Eberflus suggested the enormous uptick in man was matchup-driven, but I think it’s important to not just look for zone beaters within this DEN pass-catching group.

Courtland Sutton ($6,200) is priced as the main slate WR8. On the season, Sutton ranks just outside the top 20 NFL WRs in expected PPG based on volume (14.1) as well as in actual PPG (14.7).

Based on cost, Troy Franklin ($4,200) is the stronger value of the two. Franklin ranks just 4 spots behind Sutton in expected PPG this season (13.7), and the margin is even thinner when looking at percentage share of the team’s expected fantasy points:

Courtland Sutton has run the majority of his routes from the outside (76%) while Troy Franklin has run the majority of his from the slot (55%). Overall, DAL allows the most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing WRs (+11.7), but, by alignment, it allows the most to outside WRs (10.8) and the 12th-most to slot WRs (+0.6).

Sutton owns a 27% target share vs man coverage and a 17% target share vs zone coverage. Franklin is at 25% vs man and 15% vs zone.

You see more distinct leans between single-high vs two-high coverage looks. Sutton owns a team leading 25% target share vs single-high looks, but just a 13% target share vs two-high. Franklin owns a 17% target share vs single-high looks but a team-leading 18% share vs two-high.

Two-high looks tend to be where ancillary non-traditional WR1s make their mark, so these splits make sense. I like Sutton and Franklin this week solely based on the matchup and implied team scoring, but Franklin is the more cost-effective play of the two.

As for DEN defensively, they deploy the most man coverage in the NFL (43%) and rank 6th in single-high usage (59%).

CeeDee Lamb ($7,800) is priced as the main slate WR2, and George Pickens ($7,100) is priced as the WR4.

It’s a little dicey for the DAL WRs as DEN allows the fewest schedule-adjusted PPG to the position (-9.8).

Lamb returned from an ankle injury in last week’s game vs WAS, which had previously kept him sidelined dating back to week 3. Against WAS, CeeDee Lamb caught 5 of 7 targets (1 being a TD) for 110 receiving yards and scored 25 DK points. George Pickens caught 4 of 6 targets for 82 receiving yards for 12.2 points.

Jake Ferguson ($6,000) is priced as the main slate TE1. Ferguson caught all 7 of his targets in last week’s game, which included 2 touchdowns and just 29 receiving yards, scoring 21.9 points.

In 3 full healthy games together this season, Lamb and Ferguson clear Pickens in target share as well as first-read target share vs man coverage:

Same thing vs single-high looks:

In these three full games together, CeeDee Lamb owns 41% of the team’s receiving yards and has posted >20 PPG.

One of the big schematic questions will be how DEN deploys All-Pro CB Pat Surtain in coverage and how DAL will/won’t move around Lamb and Pickens. Lamb has the coverage matchup advantage, but the idea of Surtain moving around with him has made some people think more favorably about Pickens this week.

It will be interesting if DAL decides to get CeeDee Lamb in motion with more work out of the slot to avoid Surtain. Lamb has been targeted on an absurd 42% of his in-breaking routes this season and averaging 3.92 YPRR. In last week’s return from injury, Lamb was targeted on 6 of his 11 motion routes and recorded 7.82 YPRR out of the slot.

DAL hasn’t thrown to the middle of the field very often this season but are elite in terms of efficiency when doing so, while DEN is surprisingly pedestrian defending the middle of the field despite their single-high leanings.

Despite a tough defensive matchup and hefty price tag for CeeDee Lamb, I still don’t think Pickens’ price and matchup justify him as an appropriate alternative.

TB @ NO

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints (1-6) at 4:05 PM EDT on Sunday. The Buccaneers are currently 4-point road favorites, and the game total is at 46.5 points.

TB is coming off a 24-9 loss at DET on Monday Night Football, while NO is coming off 26-14 loss at CHI.

Baker Mayfield ($6,400) is priced as the main slate QB5 and Spencer Rattler ($4,700) is priced as the QB18.

This game is interesting from a passing standpoint because neither of the two offenses finds itself in advantageous rushing matchups:

Here are the notable pass catchers in this game:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

TB is incredibly depleted with injuries. RB Bucky Irving hasn’t played since week 4 and remains out this Sunday. WR Chris Godwin also won’t play this weekend and hasn’t seen the field since week 5. WR Mike Evans broke his clavicle during last week’s game at DET and is probably done for the year. Godwin and Evans haven’t played a snap on the field together this entire season.

That leaves rookie Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) as the top target earner in this offense. Egbuka is priced as the DK WR5 on the Sunday main slate. On the season, Emeka Egbuka falls just outside the top 20 WRs in expected PPG (13.8) but is the WR7 in actual PPG (17.1).

TE Cade Otton ($3,400) is priced as the TE13. Otton has never been an indefinite receiving threat but has risen up to the task with all the TB injuries. Otton’s three highest target share outings have all come over the team’s last three games:

Rookie WR Tez Johnson ($4,300) has also moved up the depth chart and taken advantage of new opportunities. Johnson is at nearly a 70% offensive snap share over the team’s last two games without Godwin and (mostly without) Evans:

Defensively, NO ranks 5th in single-high usage (60%) and allows the 2nd-most fantasy points per dropback to opposing QBs playing in single-high looks (0.60). NO ranks 12th in zone usage (75%) and allows the most points per dropback to opposing QBs in zone (0.49).

Baker Mayfield ranks 6th among starting QBs in points per dropback vs zone coverage (0.49) compared to ranking outside the top 20 QBs vs man coverage (0.54).

Mayfield is coming off his worst fantasy performance of the year in DET, finishing with 12.1 points on 54 dropbacks (0.22). In this game, DET deployed man on 48% of their coverage snaps. I think this is a good bounceback opportunity for him with the 25.25 team total.

Over the last two games, Emeka Egbuka leads the team with a 43% first-read target share and 30% target share vs single-high looks:

Against zone coverage during this same timeframe, Egbuka leads the team in first-read target share, but Otton clears Egbuka in overall target share:

NO blitzes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL defensively (32%) but generates pressure at the 2nd-lowest rate (37%). Emeka Egbuka has been targeted on 57% of his routes on blitz dropbacks over the last two games with a 50% target share (next highest is 17%).

Opposing offenses use play action at the 4th-highest rate vs NO (32% dropbacks). NO owns the slowest average time to pressure vs play action (3.37 secs,) and opposing offenses own the highest passer rating on PA throws (129.2). Emeka Egbuka has been targeted on 5 of his 9 PA routes over the last two games.

As for TB defensively, they rank 9th in usage of two-high shells (53%). Their two-high usage has climbed throughout the season, taking a bit of a bump after last week’s game with an abnormal negative game script.

Chris Olave ($5,800) is priced as the DK WR12 on the main slate. Olave is the NFL WR3 in expected PPG (19.1) and the WR17 in actual PPG (15.4).

NO ranks 7th in 11 personnel usage at 70% of their offensive snaps (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). The lack of personnel diversification leads to the same skill players out on the field, as Olave, RB Alvin Kamara ($5,700), WR Rashid Shaheed ($4,700), TE Juwan Johnson ($3,300) and WR Brandin Cooks ($3,200) all own a 70% offensive snap share or higher this season.

Olave is the most talented and consistent target earner of the bunch, so his volume, combined with the NO negative/neutral game scripts, leads to a ton of volume opportunities on a weekly basis.

Chris Olave leads the team in first-read target share and overall target share vs two-high looks:

But again, Olave’s the top target earner in many splits, so let’s look a little deeper at the schematic matchup.

Opposing offenses use play-action at the lowest rate in the NFL vs. TB (19% dropbacks).

Chris Olave averages 0.46 points per route run with play action and 0.46 without play action. Rashid Shaheed averages 0.93 points per route run with play action and 0.26 without it.

TB blitzes at the 6th-highest rate defensively (36%) and generates pressure at the 5th-highest rate when blitzing (53%).

Chris Olave accounts for >50% of the team’s receiving yards, owns a team-high 40% first-read target share, and averages 0.85 points per route run on blitzed dropbacks. Rashid Shaheed averages 0.35 points per route run.

On non-blitz dropbacks, Shaheed averages 0.38 points per route run compared to Olave at 0.36.

CHI @ BAL

The Chicago Bears (4-2) travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (1-5) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Ravens are currently 6.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 49 points.

CHI is coming off a 26-14 victory vs NO, while BAL is coming off its bye week but enters Sunday having lost four straight games.

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) is priced as the QB2 on the main slate and Caleb Williams ($5,600) is priced as the QB10.

The 49-point game total is the 2nd-highest in all of Week 8. The BAL 27.75 team total ranks 3rd in Week 8 and ranks 2nd among teams playing on the main slate (IND ranks 1st with 30.75 vs TEN).

Lamar Jackson hasn’t played since Week 4. BAL has scored 13 total points in two games without him. For our purposes, given the BAL team total relative to the injury uncertainty in this game, we’re going to assume that Lamar plays.

BAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule up to this point of the season per PFF. They played HOU and LAR in their two games without Jackson. Those teams happen to rank 1st and 2nd among NFL defenses in EPA/play allowed in 2025.

Defensively, BAL ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing +0.16 EPA/play.

A quick look at the BAL offense with Lamar Jackson on the field this season (BAL without Lamar in parentheses):

• 23% rushes go for 10+ yards (11% without him)

• 21% completions go for 20+ yards (5%)

• +0.14 EPA/play (-0.25)

• +0.06 EPA/rush (-0.09)

• +0.27 EPA/dropback (-0.33)

• 50% usage of 11 personnel (25%)

• 41% pass attempts move the chains (24%)

• 56% red zone pass rate (25%)

• 58% third down rush conversion rate (29%)

• +0.09 YAC over expected/completion (-0.08)

• 3.9 rushing yards before contact/carry (1.9)

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

Weeks 1-3 with Lamar Jackson: BAL saw man coverage on 45% of their dropbacks and single-high on 60% of their dropbacks.

Lamar got hurt in Week 4 at KC.

Weeks 5-6 with Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley at QB: BAL saw zone coverage on 85% of their dropbacks.

BAL had their bye in Week 7.

Defensively, CHI allows the 3rd-most points per dropback to opposing QBs this season (0.66). They rank 11th in usage of two-high shells (52%).

Historically, the Lamar Jackson-led BAL offense has faced more single-high looks and heavy boxes due to its natural run threat.

• 2022 regular season: 62% dropbacks vs single-high (3rd)

• 2023 regular season: 62% dropbacks vs single-high (1st)

• 2024 regular season: 58% dropbacks vs single-high (5th)

Although CHI has deployed two-high at an above-average rate in 2025 as a whole, their Cover 3 usage (component of single-high) has skyrocketed following their Week 5 bye:

This could be a simple adjustment made during their bye week, but this also happened to coincide with the season debut of slot CB and Swiss Army Knife Kyler Gordon, whose first game of the 2025 season came in Week 6.

CHI also played a different crop of QBs during their first four games compared to their most recent two games after the bye week

• Week 1: J.J. McCarthy

• Week 2: Jared Goff

• Week 3: Dak Prescott

• Week 4: Geno Smith

• Week 5: BYE

• Week 6: Jayden Daniels

• Week 7: Spencer Rattler

Zay Flowers ($5,400) is priced as the DK WR17 on the Sunday main slate. On the season, Flowers is the WR30 in expected PPG (13.2) and the WR23 in actual PPG (14.3).

In Weeks 1-3 with Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers ranked 6th among all WRs in target share (29%) and 8th in receiving YPG (77). He ranked 3rd in YPRR out of 91 qualifying WRs (2.75), behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.82) and Puka Nacua (4.32).

With Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley after Lamar’s injury, 5/15 of Flowers’ targets were contested at the catch point (33%). With Lamar as the fully healthy starter, 0/22 of Flowers’ targets were charted as contested despite a higher average depth of target in those games.

Opposing offenses run play action at the 3rd-highest rate vs CHI this season (35%). Zay Flowers ranks 3rd out of 71 qualifying WRs in target share (32%), receiving yards market share (46%), yards per route run (5.65), and fantasy points per route run (1.11) on play action dropbacks this season. Flowers is averaging just 1.50 yards per route run on non-play action dropbacks.

With Lamar Jackson back imposing a serious run threat and stressing defenses, along with the probable increase in play-action usage, I think Flowers is underpriced. I think in a game where teams could decide to run it more than you’d expect in its potential range of outcomes, Flowers’ skillset and production profile actually complements those scenarios more than other teams’ WR1s.

Flowers dominates the target share opportunities vs single-high looks:

As well as specifically vs Cover 3:

CHI allows the most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing slot WRs this season (+6.9) and the 4th-fewest to outside WRs (-6.5). In games with a fully healthy Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers ran 44% of his routes from the slot. Without Jackson, Flowers ran 26% of his routes from the slot.

As for BAL defensively, they rank 3rd in man usage (39%) and rank 4th in single-high usage (61%) this season.

Offensively, CHI draws a lot of single-high from opposing defenses. 57% of the Bears’ dropbacks have come against single-high looks, which ranks 4th among offenses.

Rome Odunze ($6,300) is priced as the WR7 on the main slate. On the season, Odunze is the WR16 in expected PPG (15.0) and the WR16 in actual PPG (15.5).

Odunze has been on a dry spell. He averaged 20.7 PPG going into their Week 5 bye and is averaging 5.2 PPG post-bye.

Odunze has a favorable coverage matchup this week, dominating the team’s target opportunities vs single-high looks this season:

As well as the limited opportunities vs man coverage:

On more extended dropbacks (2.5 seconds time to throw or longer), Odunze owns a 44% first-read target share and 30% overall target share.. On quick plays (<2.5 seconds time to throw), he’s tied for 2nd on the team with a 17% first-read share and ranks 3rd with a 15% overall target share.

On early downs, Odunze owns a 23% first-read target share, 19% overall target share, and averages 0.37 fantasy points per route run. On 3rd down, he’s at a 39% first-read share, 36% overall share, and is averaging 0.96 points per route run.

BAL is a 6.5-point favorite, and if all goes as planned, CHI is likely playing from behind in a negative game script. CHI has won each of its last four games, which have mostly been neutral or positive game scripts. This matchup could pose a better opportunity for Odunze to seize some second-half target volume if CHI is down by multiple scores.

I think the biggest value on the Bears this week is rookie TE Colston Loveland ($3,000).

His teammate and fellow TE Cole Kmet ($3,100) left last week’s game in the third quarter due to injury to never return and hasn’t practiced this week. I doubt Kmet plays at BAL.

Prior to last week’s game, CHI ranked 6th in early down 12 personnel usage (40%). These are 2-TE sets, so as it pertains to evaluating snaps between Kmet and Loveland, these plays are probably less insightful as they’re both on the field together.

Looking at third downs and/or 11 personnel (1-TE set) can tell us more here. With 11 personnel, it’s inherently a zero sum predicament between Kmet vs Loveland to get on the field, and 11 personnel is more likely to be a pass play than other heavier formations, which is important to us for fantasy purposes.

Entering their bye in Week 5, Cole Kmet owned an 88% third-down snap share while Colston Loveland was at just 21%. In Week 6, Kmet posted just a 30% third-down snap share while Loveland ballooned to 70%.

CHI has gone into 11 personnel more often as of late. 48% of snaps during games prior to their bye vs 76% in games post-bye.

Cole Kmet went from an 86% snap share in 11 personnel entering the bye to 42% post-bye, while Colston Loveland went from 14% in games before their bye to 46% in games after the bye:

Kmet got hurt during the 3rd quarter of last week’s game vs NO. If we removed the 2nd half of this game from the post-bye sample, Kmet would be at 46% and Loveland would be at 41%.

Even before the Kmet injury, there was a conscious effort to get Loveland on the field. Now with Kmet likely not playing, Loveland could see a 75% offensive snap share or higher at BAL.

Loveland is dirt cheap, and I recommend adding him alongside any expensive player you prefer to roster from this game.