2021 Player Props Record: 75-47 (61.5%)
2022 Player Props Record: 85-68 (55.6%)
2023 Player Props Record: 79-59 (57.2%)
2024 Player Props Record: 70-50 (58.3%)
2025 Player Props Record: 32-15 (68.0%, +14.09 units)
Each week in this space, you’ll get my recommended discrepancy-based player prop bets and “anytime” touchdown scorer bets. We had just a 3-3 prop bet record in Week 7 but we’re still at a very strong 68% winners on the season. Cade Otton, Rico Dowdle and Keenan Allen all easily won their props but Drake London failed to get to 71 receiving yards despite getting 10 targets, the Jaguars were not competitive against the Rams which kept us from hitting the Kyren Williams receiving yards prop and Josh Jacobs was ill/injured so he didn’t play his full allotment of snaps. Still, I feel good about the analysis and we’re right back at it for Week 8! Not a ton of great options but a few I feel very good about.
Before we get to this week’s recommended plays, here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a handful of years ago, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. In the old days, I had to look up each prop myself.
Now, our prop finder tool does that hard work for me. I use the tool to find the biggest discrepancies, and then I decide which props I like best – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds, of course. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props, and I’ve been betting accordingly.
Best Bets
Here are my recommended “discrepancy” plays of the week, followed by a list of the most significant discrepancies I considered for this article:
