Week 10 Advanced DFS Matchups


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Week 10 Advanced DFS Matchups

Before we plunge into the matchups, I want to highlight the importance of always taking the expected game script into account for DFS. Even with Vegas providing us with their point spreads, expected game totals, and direction of wagered money, NFL games usually end up with a complete mind of their own. In addition, gameflow can be disastrous to offensive output. With script and flow in mind, we can have a matchup on paper seemingly scripted in gold bullion that falls well short of expectations due to time of possession limiting opportunities.

Unfortunately, historical coverage shell success is far from exempt from these factors. A positive game script entirely cutting off passing offensive production, or a negative game script leading the defense, for example, toward a zone secondary funnel when we rostered a player to attack its expected man coverage. For instance, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen were set up for monster games after having their way during the first quarter with the Detroit secondary in Week 9. Cousins had connected with both Jefferson (22 yards) and Thielen (30 yards) on deep targets and hit Irv Smith Jr. on a nine-yard scoring strike.

Cousins ended the first half with a perfect passer rating (158.3), up 20-10 in spite of the Lions dominating time of possession (20:33 for Detroit to 9:27 for Minnesota). Playing from behind for 18 minutes, 44 seconds of the first half, Matthew Stafford led Detroit on a pair of time-consuming and 10-plus play drives. While the Vikings’ passing offense was still set up for significant second half FPs, Dalvin Cook proceeded to devour the Lions’ defense for 140 rushing yards on only 13 carries in the second half alone -- 68 percent of his total rushing yardage. Great for Minnesota in reality, disastrous for the fantasy output of Jefferson and Thielen.

The historical trends giveth and they taketh away. However, it’s the time devoted to the process that brings us closer to our end goal. We must always use every lineup that falls short of expectations as a learning tool. As long as we are following accurate numbers, sound analysis, the process will never let us down in providing an education in either understanding or financial success. Without further delay, let’s dive into the matchups.

Against the Spread Picks

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.0) at Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup of the Week

DK Metcalf. SEA ($7,600 DK | $8,300 FD) vs. Jalen Ramsey, LAR

Nobody can tell you with any reliability how this matchup of the year will play out. The quintessential unstoppable force meets the immovable object. DK Metcalf has only scored less than 17.6 FPs in a single game this season. Jalen Ramsey is absolutely one of the top-five shadow corners in the NFL. Ramsey has faced opposing No. 1’s on a weekly basis, permitting 47 percent less FPs per coverage snap (FPCS) than league CB average (0.32 FPCS). What’s even more remarkable, whereas Bradley Roby, Darius Slay, and Stephon Gilmore hold the advantage of shadowing No. 1’s from man coverages, Ramsey does his work entirely from zone schemes.

The Rams have limited opposing QBs (14.8), WRs (27.4), and offenses as a whole (76.4) to the second-lowest FPG in the NFL this season. The Seahawks have generated the most passing YPG (362.1), third-highest team scoring average (30.4), and most total offensive YPG (455.8). These teams met twice last season: a 30-29 victory for Seattle in Week 5 and a 28-12 triumph in favor of the Rams in Week 14. However, Ramsey was not involved in Week 5. He did, however, cover Metcalf in Week 14. In that contest, Ramsey contained Metcalf to 5/69/0 of his 6/78/0 receiving line. We shouldn’t expect “Baby ‘Bron” to faceplant facing Ramsey in Week 10, but rostering Metcalf at a top-three salary on both platforms holds significant volatility.

Matchups to Target

Tom Brady, TB ($6,300 DK | $7,800 FD) vs. Panthers’ Cover 3

During each preseason, I incorporate the most appealing, can’t miss matchups to the Calendar on my laptop. For Tom Brady, three games made the list: Week 4 vs. the Chargers, and Weeks 2 and 10 facing the Panthers. Brady threw for 369 yards and five TDs in Week 4. While “Tom Terrific '' didn't light up the DFS scorecard in Week 2, the ground game did vulture away a pair of short TDs, but a few other factors held more accountability. With Brady having only played with the Tampa Bay offense in one game prior following a skeleton set of preseason practices, he didn’t appear to be in full control of the offense until Week 3. Compounding the issue for Brady, Rob Gronkowski’s conditioning limited him to 50 percent of team routes over the first two weeks, and Chris Godwin missed Week 2 after being concussed the week prior.

Heading into Week 10, the ingredients are coming together for a big game for Brady. Gronkowski is showing he has fuel left in the tank, Godwin appears healthy, and the Buccaneers acquired a Cover 3 decimator in Antonio Brown. Don’t just take my word for it in recommending Brady, let’s dig into the numbers. First of all, only the Chargers (54 percent) played more snaps from a Cover 3 this season than the Panthers (47 percent). When Brady has faced a Cover 3 over his last 26 starts (22 percent of dropbacks), he’s collected 27 percent of his total yards, and 28 percent of his TDs. Even more, his yards/attempt (YPA) increases by 13 percent and his already-stellar QB rating goes up four points. Gimme, gimme.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA ($5,600 DK | $6,800 FD) vs. Chargers’ Cover 3

We have very little in the way of game film or statistical data in order to evaluate Tua Tagovailoa after a pair of NFL starts. While on staff with PFF for much of the 2010s, I had luxurious access to their NCAA statistical database. While I no longer have access to those statistics, I remember one extremely useful detail from Tagovailoa’s time with Alabama: he was much better when facing zone shells than when facing man coverage. That said, he did just complete over 70 percent of passes during an upset win over the Cardinals. If he’s made significant strides against man coverages, watch out!

When facing zone coverages last week (24 dropbacks), Tagovailoa completed 16-of-20 attempts for 172 passing yards. In Week 10, he’ll face a Los Angeles defense fielding the highest percentage of Cover 3 snaps in the league. Against Cover 3, Tagovailoa has connected with his intended target on 12-of-17 attempts with 72.2 percent coming prior to the catch. One of the most significant factors in Tagovailoa’s favor, as I’ll detail later, will be the presence of DeVante Parker.

The Chargers just traded one of their top coverage defenders to Tennessee, Desmond King II, and will continue to be without Chris Harris Jr. and Derwin James -- not to mention Joey Bosa. All of these factors set Tagovailoa up for a smash matchup against an LAC secondary allowing the fourth-highest FPG to opposing QBs.

Stefon Diggs, BUF ($7,500 DK | $7,900 FD) vs. Patrick Peterson, ARI

As much as I loved Stefon Diggsin Week 9, his faceoff with Patrick Peterson in Week 10 is at the top of my must-play list. Looking at the results of Diggs’ first season in Buffalo, three of the four games that stand out the most -- Week 2 at Miami, Week 5 at Tennessee, and Week 8 vs. New England -- all come when facing a secondary featuring man coverages. More specifically, Cover 1 shells. In a Cover 1, the secondary will only drop a single defensive back deep to aid underneath defenders in man coverage. Some of the league’s top WRs take advantage of holes in zone shells for much of their success. When they go up against man coverages, their upside is capped without the ability to generate their own offense.

Not the case with Diggs. While “Diggsy” has struggled a bit when facing Cover 2 and 6 shells, he’s lethal in attack mode on Cover 3 and 4 shells. On top of that, Stefon is one of the top-10 most dangerous WRs in the league against Cover 1. Since every NFL team plays a healthy amount of snaps in Cover 1, Diggs’ upside is almost always among the elite. In Week 10, Arizona will be expected to field the NFL’s second-highest rate of Cover 1 (44 percent).

On 23 percent of routes against Cover 1 over his last 26 games, Diggs has generated 27 percent of receptions, 33 percent of yardage, and 32 percent of TDs. Furthermore, his FPs/route (FP/Rt) increases by 33 percent, yards/route run (YPRR) by 42 percent, and his air yards per target by five percent. This recommendation revolves entirely around Diggs’ upside, not in opposition to Peterson’s coverage ability since it’s very likely Diggs plays significant snaps -- upwards of 50 percent of routes -- outside of Peterson’s coverage.

DeVante Parker, MIA ($5,000 DK | $6,000 FD) vs. Chargers’ Cover 3

As alluded to above, Tua Tagovailoa and DeVante Parker make for an intriguing stack in Week 10. What makes Parker such a valuable commodity this week? DP is somewhat similar to Stefon Diggs in that he does very well against Cover 1 and a variety of zone coverages.

Parker has hit a wall over his last 25 games when facing zone shells with at least four defensive backs dropping deep: Cover 4 and 6. He’s been better than average against Cover 2, but is simply one of the top WRs in the game when facing a Cover 3 scheme. While he’s not going to give away too much during a post-game interview about Parker’s strengths, here’s what Ryan Fitzpatrick was quoted as saying after Parker set a new career-high with 10 receptions in Week 4 at Seattle:

The loss of Preston Williams to injured reserve will only put additional emphasis on making Parker the centerpiece of the offense. In addition, the Dolphins have reverted to passing on two-thirds of snaps since Myles Gaskin also landed on IR. When Parker has gone against a Cover 3 since the beginning of his breakout 2019 season (21 percent of routes), his FP/Rt has jumped by 21 percent, his YPRR by 47 percent, and his air yards per targets has increased by 10 percent. Parker is simply a no-brainer in Week 10 with value to spare at his current salaries.

Michael Thomas, NO ($7,400 DK | $8,500 FD) vs. 49ers’ Cover 3 | 4 | 6

New Orleans was able to build a 31-0 lead over Tampa Bay Week 9 in Michael Thomas’s long-awaited return. Scoring 10.1 FPs from a 5/51/0 receiving line isn’t going to instill a ton of confidence from the field of DFS degenerates. That’s actually what I am counting on in Week 10. Upon viewing the Week 9 film a second time, Thomas appeared to be near or at full strength while cutting and accelerating on 76 percent of team routes this past Sunday. In spite of the meager results, “CantGuardMike” still garnered a 25 percent target share for a healthy 1.82 YPRR.

Outside of Thomas averaging 28.3 FPG during his career when facing San Francisco (18/205/3 combined receiving line), the best part about this matchup is knowing Jason Verrett will always be positioned on the outside -- zero slot coverage snaps in 2020. Thomas splits his time in three between outside right, outside left, and the slot. Even within a Verrett shadow -- which is entirely unlikely, Thomas would play enough in the slot to break free of the seven-year veteran who has only allowed 0.68 yards per coverage snap (YPCS, CB average is currently 1.52), and 0.15 FPCS.

You may be a bit surprised to learn that the 49ers’ secondary has allowed the fourth-most receptions of 20-or-more yards, second-most resulting TDs, and fourth-most TDs of 40-or-more. Many of those holes in the SF secondary are the responsibility of Emmanuel Moseley on the outside opposite Verrett, and Jamar Taylor out of the slot. With K'Waun Williams out once again with a high-ankle sprain, Thomas will have two clear avenues to attack. When it comes to Thomas’ production facing coverage shells, unsurprisingly, he has zero holes within his repertoire.

Allen Robinson II, CHI ($7,000 DK | $6,900 FD) vs. Vikings’ Cover 2 | 3

It’s really difficult not to feel for Allen Robinson II this season. The quality at QB has been difficult to watch for the most part. Even after leading the Bears to a 2-0 start, Mitchell Trubisky was benched in favor of Nick Foles. Foles has been just as bad, possibly even worse than Trubisky, with a minuscule 5.9 YPA, and only one-of-seven games exceeding 300 passing yards. Chicago has lost three in a row and Foles is 3-4 as the starter. If not for an injury to Trubisky, Foles would likely have already been benched.

All is not lost for “ARob’s” DFS upside, he’ll face a porous Minnesota Cover 2 and 3 zone secondary in Week 10. First, consider that 33 percent of Robinson’s targets this season have been of 15-or-more yards. The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most receptions, third-most yards, and eighth-most TDs on targets of that depth or more. On the 24 percent of Cover 2 shells Robinson will face from Minnesota, he’s run 12 percent of routes over the last two years, resulting in 14 percent of his yardage, an increase of 12 percent to his percentage of air yards, and eight percent to his air yards per target.

Against Cover 3 shells (29 percent expectation) on 26 percent of routes over the same amount of time, Robinson has manufactured 31 percent of receptions, 29 percent of yardage, and 27 percent of his TDs. With a trio of man coverage defenses -- for which Robinson has struggled -- separating a pair of matchups between a stingy Green Bay zone, and with Minnesota, Weeks 10 and 15 may be Robinson’s last chance at DFS relevance in 2020.

Eric Ebron, PIT ($4,400 DK | $5,400 FD) vs. Vonn Bell, CIN

The TE position has always been limited from a fantasy perspective outside of 1.5 PPR TE leagues. However, this season stands out as being both one of the least productive from the position, and most difficult to predict in recent memory. Outside of the steady flow of FPs from Travis Kelce, no other TE has provided the consistency worthy of spending for one of the top-five at the position. We are left with no other alternative but to look for the highest upside TE punts each week. Topping the list for me this week is Eric Ebron.

On 40 percent of routes over his last 18 games facing Cover 1, Ebron has provoked 35 percent of both receptions and yardage, and … wait for it … 50 percent of his TDs. Cincinnati plays man coverage at the league’s seventh-highest rate and the fifth-most Cover 1 snaps (39 percent). The Bengals have allowed the second-most FPG to TEs this season (17.6) and the most over the last four weeks (24.6). The entirety of the culpability does not fall on the shoulders of Vonn Bell, but he is not entirely without blame. Between Bell, Akeem Davis-Gaither, and Mackensie Alexander, the trio have allowed a combined 52/649/5 line out of the slot. And they’ve done so with passer ratings north of 100.

Jordan Reed, SF ($3,500 DK | $5,000 FD) vs. Saints’ Cover 4 | 1

With what seemed like half of the San Francisco roster placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for last Thursday’s game against the Packers, the activation of Jordan Reed may have been a week early. That said, he made it through the game seemingly unscathed after running 26 percent of team routes. If he is truly close to 100 percent, Reed will face a New Orleans defense that’s allowed the seventh-highest FPG to TEs this season (14.9). The Saints play from Cover 4 at the fourth-highest rate (24 percent) and Cover 1 at the 12th-highest (30 percent).

Since Reed didn’t play during the 2019 season, I was forced to dig a bit deeper. You’ll need to trust my personal collection of coverage numbers on Reed’s limited snaps from YouTube footage of Washington during the 2018 season. With that in mind, over his last 16 games, Reed generated an identical 0.35 FP/Rt to his overall average versus Cover 4. However, Reed’s production against Cover 1 would rank him second among all TEs over the last two seasons. On 27 percent of all routes against Cover 1, Reed has reeled in 27 percent of receptions, 39 percent of yardage, and, get this, 100 percent of his TDs. At $3.5K/$5K, I think it’s safe to say Reed is a reasonable risk.

Taysom Hill, NO ($4,500 FD) vs. 49ers’ Cover 3 | 4 | 6

Usually only covering a pair of recommendations, here is a bonus, third TE to target. To be entirely clear, this is a FD-only play since Taysom Hill is listed as a QB within the DraftKings system. Hill has been a gadget player over his career, so we do not have quite enough snaps in order to draw reasonable conclusions. However, here is my reasoning for his inclusion: while his snaps have remained steady at around 23/game, he’s been provided with the same number rushing attempts the last two games as he had in total the six games prior.

Even if we chalk his recent role to playing in terrible weather in Week 8 and the blow out of the Buccaneers in Week 9, the Saints are currently nine-point home favorites this week. The 49ers’ defense is a shadow of its Week 1 self with key performers missing from every level. Hill was even called upon for two passing attempts in Week 9 that resulted in 48 passing yards. At $4.5K, an average of 8.5 touches, and 11.7 FPG over the last two weeks provide us with more than enough for a basement salary, TE punt.

Other matchups to consider:

Josh Allen, BUF ($7,500 DK | $8,700 FD) vs. Cardinals’ Cover 1

Jared Goff, LAR ($6,500 DK | $7,400 FD) vs. Seahawks’ Cover 3

Drew Brees, NO ($6,400 DK | $7,600 FD) vs. 49ers’ Cover 3 | 4 | 6

Nick Mullins, SF ($5,300 DK | $6,600 FD) vs. Saints’ Cover 1 | 4

Davante Adams, GB ($9,000 DK | $9,500 FD) vs. C.J. Henderson, JAX

Antonio Brown, TB ($5,800 DK | $6,500 FD) vs. Panthers’ Cover 3

Jerry Jeudy, DEN ($5,600 DK | $5,800 FD) vs. Raiders’ Cover 2 | 6

Jakobi Meyers, NE ($4,500 DK | $5,400 FD) vs. Ravens’ Cover 0 | 1

Austin Hooper, CLE ($3,900 DK | $5,100 FD) vs. Zach Cunningham, HOU

T.J. Hockenson, DET ($5,100 DK | $6,200 FD) vs. Washington’s Cover 3 | 4

Mike Gesicki, MIA ($4,300 DK | $5,300 FD) vs. Chargers’ Cover 3

Mo Alie-Cox, IND ($3,400 DK | $5,000 FD) vs. Jayon Brown, TEN

Matchups to Avoid

Kirk Cousins, MIN ($6,100 DK | $7,100 FD) vs. Bears’ Cover 6 | 3

You might remember that Kirk Cousins was the cover boy of Week 9’s article. Cousins and his man coverage wrecking crew will still have a small chance to find success on Chicago’s 21st-highest rate of Cover 1 shells. On the other 70-plus percent of snaps against zone schemes, the going will be tough for Minnesota on the road. For starters, the Bears have allowed the third-lowest FPG to QBs this season (15.1).

When facing the league’s third-highest rate of Half-Half-Quarters coverage (Cover 6, 19 percent), Cousins (25 games) has taken 11 percent of dropbacks, leading to a 47 percent decrease in FPDb, and generating one percent of his total TDs. Against Cover 3 on 26 percent of dropbacks, his FPDb drops by 17 percent, percentage of air yards by 14 percent, and he’s thrown for 13 percent of TDs. One of the easiest fades at the position.

Russell Wilson, SEA ($7,700 DK | $8,900 FD) vs. Rams’ Cover 4 | 6

This recommendation to fade is unlikely to be received with much kindness. However, let me be entirely clear, I am not calling for Russell Wilson to implode in Week 10. With the #LetRussCook movement in full effect, seeing his streak of success continue against a lethal Rams’ secondary would be far from the biggest surprise of the season. That said, Wilson will not just be defended by Jalen Ramsey, he’ll face an entire secondary allowing only 0.62 YPCS, or 46 percent below league defensive back average.

Wilson faced Los Angeles twice last season: Weeks 5 and 14. In Week 5, “The Professor” threw down 268 passing yards, four TDs, and 29.9 FPs. In Week 14 -- after the acquisition of Ramsey, Wilson was limited to 245 yards, zero TDs, and 11.6 FPs. His QB rating plummeted 75.3 points with Ramsey on the field. This is the level of statistical evidence that must be considered for every player’s outlook priced anywhere close to $7.7K/$8.9K. A pivot from Wilson to Tagovailoa, for example, would allow enough leeway under the cap to go after a Davante Adams. At least give it some thought.

Diontae Johnson, PIT ($5,200 DK | $5,700 FD) vs. William Jackson III, CIN

As you’ll see below, I’ve listed Ben Roethlisberger in the avoid alternatives for Week 10. Should Cincinnati somehow build a meaningful lead, that could turn around to bite me since “Big Ben” is one of the top QBs in the league when playing from behind. However, the game script will not help Diontae Johnson in this one. Finally tapping into the potential that made him a first-round selection from the 2016 NFL Draft, William Jackson III has found his way toward becoming a serious NFL threat to WR production.

The combination of Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr., DeSean Jackson, D.J. Chark Jr., Marquise Brown, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Brown produced a total of 140 yards, and 6.0 FPG on 21 targets. As with every WR/CB matchup, we need to speculate which defenders will cover which receiver. If it ends up being LeShaun Sims on Johnson, this recommendation to avoid is literally null-and-void. If Johnson is forced to deal with Jackson, the result will be much different. As for Diontae’s history against Cover 1: over his last 16 games, he’s faced Cover 1 on 33 percent of routes, resulting in 29 percent of receptions, 31 percent of yardage, and 25 percent of TDs.

Adam Thielen, MIN ($6,000 DK | $7,500 FD) vs. Bears’ Cover 6 | 3

While it wasn’t his fault at all, Adam Thielen missed out on a heaven-sent opportunity against Detroit’s man coverage last week. In Week 10, he’ll need to deal with the Bears and their Cover 6 secondary. On 11 percent of snaps opposed by Cover 6 since the beginning of 2019, Thielen has produced five percent of his total receptions, four percent of yardage, and zero TDs. He’ll face a Cover 6 scheme at the league’s third-highest rate this week.

Thielen will also face Cover 3 on around one-third of snaps. During the same time period, he’s run 27 percent of routes, creating only nine percent of TDs, and with a 20 percent reduction in FP/Rt. Unless you think he can do enough damage on one-fifth of snaps against Chicago’s Cover 1, it would be prudent to look elsewhere.

D.J. Chark Jr., JAX ($6,200 DK | $6,600 FD) vs. Jaire Alexander, GB

The debut of Jake Luton went much better than anticipated last week. He eclipsed 300 passing yards and connected with D.J. Chark Jr. for a 70-plus yard TD. However, Bradley Roby was benched prior to the game with a one-week suspension. Unfortunately for Chark, he’ll face another shadow glove from Jaire Alexander in Week 10, as long as he clears the concussion protocol. Alexander can be mentioned within the same breath as Jalen Ramsey, Jason Verrett, James Bradberry, and Kyle Fuller as the league’s top-five zone shadows.

“Primetime Ja Money” has only allowed 0.60 YPCS and 0.15 FPCS this season. His presence would nullify much of the 41 percent target share received by Chark in Week 9. Green Bay will roll out a Cover 2 at the seventh-highest rate and Cover 6 at the fourth-highest. Over his last 22 games against Cover 2, Chark’s FP/Rt dips by 40 percent, and he’s scored 0 TDs on 17 percent of snaps. Against Cover 6 on 10 percent of snaps, his FP/Rt nosedives by 55 percent, and he’s gone without a TD scored. Easy fade.

A.J. Brown, TEN ($7,600 DK | $7,700 FD) vs. Colts’ Cover 6 | 2 | 3 | 3S

This avoid recommendation is next to Russell Wilson in volatility. A.J. Brown possesses a rare breed of physicality at the WR position that is very difficult to cover. That said, he’ll face a collection of the stingiest zone coverages in the NFL from Indianapolis. Obviously, we can’t be entirely sure, but DC Matt Eberflus appears to focus a great deal of game-planning toward ghosting opposing No. 1 WRs. That does end up funneling some level of production toward other WRs.

The result is a Colts’ pass defense allowing the least FPG to QBs (13.9), ninth-lowest to WRs (34.2), second-lowest to TEs (7.6), and the least amount of overall FPG to opposing offenses (74.3). For Brown, his salaries have caught up to his production. From a risk aversion standpoint, this matchup reeks of trouble. Making matters even more difficult for him, Brown has been ghosted by Cover 6 shells during his career -- 87 percent decrease in FP/Rt. Indianapolis utilizes Cover 6 at the fourth-highest rate as one of their base packages.

Jonnu Smith, TEN ($4,700 DK | $6,000 FD) vs. Darius Leonard, IND

You’ll begin to see a trend with the recommendation to avoid Jonnu Smith this week. Further down, you’ll find Ryan Tannehill’s name. While I am still working out the kinks, if I had my RBs vs. Coverage Shell index ready for consumption, you’d find Derrick Henry’s name, as well. While they can all be grouped together, Smith faces the most daunting task of the bunch.

Like every other TE before him, Smith will go up against one of the most gifted coverage LBs in the game, perhaps in a generation. Darius Leonard simply does not receive the proper attention he deserves. At only 6-foot-2, Leonard possesses the wingspan of a seven-footer and has used it to limit his coverage responsibilities to a shutdown CB-like 0.73 YPCS, and 0.16 FPCS. He blanketed Mark Andrews for a 3/22/0 output in Week 9. Expect a similar line from Smith this week.

Jared Cook, NO ($4,600 DK | $6,000 FD) vs. Fred Warner, SF

Speaking of unheralded coverage LBs, Fred Warner may not have the insane physical gifts of Darius Leonard, but that hasn’t stopped him from recently being named a midseason All-Pro byPFF, and earning their top LB coverage grade (90.3). He’s allowed a miniscule 0.55 YPCS and 0.15 FPCS this season.

Keep in mind, a good amount of Warner’s time will also be spent attempting to contain Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. However, the 49ers defense as a whole has limited the TE position to the fourth-lowest FPG (9.0). A healthy Michael Thomas essentially dooms another TE to what amounts to fantasy bantha fodder.

Other matchups to avoid:

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT ($6,200 DK | $7,400 FD) vs. Bengals’ Cover 1

Ryan Tannehill, TEN ($6,300 DK | $7,500 FD) vs. Colts’ Cover 2 | 6 | 3 | 3S

Cam Newton, NE ($5,600 DK | $7,700 FD) vs. Ravens’ Cover 0 | 1

Jake Luton, GB ($5,400 DK | $6,700 FD) vs. Packers’ Cover 2 | 6

Darius Slayton, NYG ($4,800 DK | $5,900 FD) vs. Darius Slay, PHI

Rashard Higgins, CLE ($4,600 DK | $5,500 FD) vs. Bradley Roby, HOU

Hunter Renfrow, LV ($4,200 DK | $4,900 FD) vs. Bryce Callahan, DEN

A.J. Green, CIN ($4,400 DK | $5,600 FD) vs. Steelers’ Cover 3 | 1

Mark Andrews, BAL ($4,600 DK | $6,400 FD) vs. Stephon Gilmore, NE

Noah Fant, DEN ($4,900 DK | $5,700 FD) vs. Raiders’ Cover 2 | 6

Hunter Henry, LAC ($4,100 DK | $5,500 FD) vs. Eric Rowe, MIA

Logan Thomas, WAS ($3,300 DK | $4,900 FD) vs. Tracy Walker, DET

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.