Much like “drafting the right players” is the simplest way to win in fantasy football, avoiding drafting the WRONG players is also critical. That’s why it’s important to understand which players we’re not so high on as a staff.
An “OVERVALUE” is a player we don’t necessarily want to avoid at all costs, but his ADP makes him someone we’ll overlook unless it drops a little bit — we prefer other players at that specific cost.
An “AVOID” is a player we’re almost certainly not drafting at all unless there’s a major market overcorrection.
What makes this article a little tougher than pointing out players we do want to draft is that there’s almost always a point where every player is worth drafting. However, the players in this article are those for whom such opportunities are few and far between.
We broke this article down by position and ordered players by ADP. We’ll let you know if that player is overvalued or an avoid based on that ADP, our projections, and any news and notes that have come out.
This article will be constantly updated throughout the preseason. ADP in this article is based on our ADP tool’s PPR setting, which pulls from NFFC drafts over the last 14 days.
Quarterbacks
OVERVALUE: Baker Mayfield (TB, ADP 71 QB7, PROJ QB9)
The Buccaneers had one of the league’s best receiving corps heading into the draft, and they added to that strength by selecting Emeka Egbuka 19th overall. It was a surprising pick considering the Buccaneers handed Chris Godwin $44 million guaranteed despite his second serious leg injury in the last four years. Jalen McMillan, a 2024 third-round pick, is also coming off a blistering finish to his rookie campaign. Mike Evans rounds out the league’s most talented receiving corps, who extended his NFL record for 1000-yard seasons to open his career to 11. Mayfield has the receivers to help him post another career season, but he’s a prime candidate to regress after he finished as the QB4 (22.6 FPG).
His career TD rate rose from 4.6% in his first six seasons to 7.2% in 2024. Mayfield failed to top 7.3 YPA in five straight seasons before jumping to 7.9 YPA under Coen. He also demolished his previous career-high in completion percentage, going from 64.3% in 2023 to 71.4% last season. Mayfield lost his last two playcallers, Liam Coen and Dave Canales, to head-coaching gigs in back-to-back years. Josh Grizzard faces a lot of pressure to keep this offense playing at a high level. He’s also expected to be without All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs for at least four games to start the season. Mayfield had the seventh-worst pressure-to-sack ratio (25.3%) among QBs with 300+ dropbacks, but he was pressured at the third-lowest rate (24.2%) thanks to Wirfs’ protection and Coen’s playcalling. Mayfield more than doubled his career-best rushing mark with 378 yards on two fewer attempts than in 2023, when he ran for 163 yards. He’s a reach at his current ADP since the odds are stacked against him maintaining his blistering pace from last season.
OVERVALUE: Jared Goff (Det, ADP 93 QB9, PROJ QB19)
Goff is coming off his best season in his ninth year, ranking a career-best QB7 with 19.8 FPG and finishing fifth in the MVP vote after never previously receiving any votes. He posted career-bests in TD rate (6.9%), completion percentage (72.4%), and YPA (8.6) last season. Detroit’s offense has been humming the last three seasons, averaging an NFL-best 29.0 PPG in that span. Ben Johnson orchestrated those offenses, but left for the division-rival Bears. The Lions promoted John Morton to offensive coordinator, who had just one opportunity as an NFL OC since breaking into coaching in 1998. The Jets coaching staff was canned after a 5-11 campaign in 2017, and Morton’s offense ranked 24th in PPG and 28th in YPG.
Morton has a much better chance at success than he had with Josh McCown, Robbie Chosen, and Bilal Powell, but we’re still expecting Detroit’s offense to take a step back from its elite level of the last three seasons. Goff averaged 6.6 YPA with a 3.8% TD rate in his last season without Johnson as his playcaller in 2021, and he averaged 7.9 YPA with a 5.5% TD rate in three seasons together in 2022-24. Goff hit his fantasy ceiling as the QB7 last season after previously topping out as the QB10 in 2018 with the Rams. He’ll need another special season just to reach low-end QB1 territory because he’s a zero in the rushing department, and his ADP is currently at his ceiling.
