Before we dive into the meat and potatoes of Week 11, allow me to detail the intended purpose of these articles. The individual analysis below highlights the passing game options that either have the opportunity to perform well above baseline expectation, or will face a difficult matchup based upon philosophical and/or data-driven indications. After over 30 years of personal fantasy football successes and failures, identifying all avenues toward averting avoidable risk has been ingrained into my DNA. While these player recommendations can most definitely be applied to yearlong fantasy, the intended format is DFS on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
When choosing the encounters I deem worthy for inclusion, sidestepping the top-five highest salaries is preferred with the exception of the most mouth-watering or volatile engagements. History facing expected coverage shells will carry the most significant weight, but expected involvement, team tendencies, anticipated game script, relevant injuries, individual defensive performance, and weather conditions will be factored. Some of the players highlighted might come as a surprise. But you can take comfort in knowing that I will not lead you down a dark alley outlook unless I am thoroughly convinced that the player will resurface on the other side to the comforts of a brightly lit situation. My focus is to uncover some reliability with my touts that can be counted on in GPPs, cash games, and single-entries.
To list a few examples, Baker Mayfield has actually been solid when facing defenses featuring Cover 1 over his career. Alex Smith just passed for a career-high in passing yards against a NY Giants defense that has been stingy against QBs this season. And, with Drew Brees very unlikely to play with multiple fractured ribs and a collapsed lung, Jameis Winston might find himself under center for a good amount of snaps facing an Atlanta secondary that ranks within the top-10 in NFL history in passing yardage allowed. To be clear, each of these QBs are most definitely in play for GPPs. However, I would not recommend any of them for Cash/SE. While I absolutely love Michael Pittman Jr.’s upside, we are a few weeks away from having enough film, reliable analytics, and trust in his role for a recommendation for Cash/SE exposure.
As a coach is pacing the sidelines, he will call in plays based on the percentages, and using the exact same data that we rely upon. He will obviously have unique insights into his players, scheme, and experience, but he must always rely on the numbers. As much as I subconsciously want you to believe otherwise, nobody can perfectly predict NFL results. Anyone who claims as much is either outright lying or is lounging on a beach somewhere with a cold drink in hand rather than analyzing fantasy matchups. In the case of predicting individual matchup outcomes, they break down in the face of in-game injuries (i.e., Week 7 when Bradley Roby was injured and Davante Adams erupted for a 13/196/2 receiving line) or during unanticipated garbage time scenarios.
Enough with all of that, let’s dig in our heels, and see what Week 11 has to offer.
Against the Spread Picks
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns (-3.0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Over 57.5)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (Over 50.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (Over 48.0)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 47.5)
Matchup of the Week
Ryan Tannehill, TEN ($6,100 DK | $7,300 FD) vs. Ravens’ Cover 0 | 1 | 3
Baltimore has blitzed at a top-10 rate with top-10 results (20.7 pressures/game) this season. In addition, DC Don Martindale loves turning O-linemen in circles with constant gap-swapping stunts that will frequently allow defenders to reach the pocket unblocked. However, this incarnation of the Ravens defense has only faced Ryan Tannehill once during his time with the Titans. That took place in the AFC Divisional playoffs when the Titans defeated them 28-12. Baltimore will have their hands full to prevent a repeat in Week 11.
Over his time with Tennessee, Tannehill has put together a 19-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio with a 62 completion percentage against the blitz. At the time of this writing, Baltimore will be without both Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams along the line. As has been pivotal during Tannehill’s ascension to elite QB-status, Derrick Henry will devour any and all vulnerabilities along a defensive front. That includes that Divisional playoff game when he ran for 195 yards.
Let’s just get it out there that the Ravens have done a tremendous job against opposing QBs thus far. They’ve limited the position to the 23rd-fewest FPG (21.3) with that ranking improving to 30th over their last three (13.1). Looking deeper, two of those last three games were played against predominantly rushing offenses (Colts and Patriots), and the third (Week 8 vs. the Steelers) played in pouring rain. Another opponent that loves to run is in store, but weather will not be a factor in Baltimore this week. What will factor into the equation is a Titans’ O-line permitting a sack rate of a hair over four percent (10th best) and Tannehill’s history of success against man coverages.
Tannehill ranks fourth with 0.46 FPs/dropback (FPDb) when facing Cover 1 and 12th with 0.38 FPDb against Cover 3. Baltimore has presented a Cover 1 at the ninth-highest and Cover 3 at the 13th-highest rate this season. The Ravens also run out a top-five rate of Cover 0 that’s associated with an all-out blitz. Unfortunately, we do not have enough snaps to judge Tannehill’s performance against Cover 0. However, those snaps are built into the blitz numbers above. During his 28 percent of dropbacks against Cover 1, the former Texas A&M WR has compiled 34 percent of his yardage, 35 percent of total TDs, and the sixth-highest QB rating in the league. As I’ll detail later, we can expect those numbers to rise with A.J. Brown on the field.
Matchups to Target
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR ($6,400 DK | $7,200 FD) vs. Lions’ Cover 1 | 2
In order for this recommendation to come to fruition, we need Teddy Bridgewater to be cleared for game action. Bridgewater took a shot to his knee from Jason Pierre-Paul last week. Luckily for Carolina, that hit was to his right leg rather than the left that doctors feared would require amputation back in 2017. As long as he clears that hurdle, which is looking good after a limited practice on Wednesday, “Gump” will have one of his best matchups of the season on his plate. Outside of a pass rush that’s taken steps toward improvement in recent weeks, Detroit’s defense has been one of the league’s punching bags. Overwhelming deficiencies in the secondary and in run defense have permitted the opposition to score 20-or-more in eight-of-nine games, and 30-or-more in four-of-five defeats.
Considering the generosity of the Panthers’ defense, the pressure has fallen on the shoulders of Bridgewater to make up the difference. Another week without Christian McCaffrey doesn’t help their chances. That said, the Lions present its most unstable fragility in opposition to the Panthers’ current strength: the Detroit secondary vs. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel. Even more compelling, Bridgewater currently ranks second among all QBs when facing Cover 1 with 0.54 FPDb over the last two seasons. That’s a 54 percent bump to his overall FPDb! To be clear, Teddy hasn’t dropped back as much as his competitors. But we have enough of a sample size (600-plus dropbacks) that will provide us with reliable value.
As for those cookies I promised, Bridgewater has created 32 percent of his passing yardage and -- brace yourself -- 48 percent of all TDs on only 25 percent of dropbacks when facing Cover 1. The most significant complaint regarding Bridgewater’s game will always be his total hesitation to air it out. His percentage of air yards (46 percent) ranks below 29 QBs in 2020. However, when he’s faced a Cover 1, his yards/attempt (YPA) increases by 19 percent and his air yards/attempt by 20 percent. As for his WRs, Moore (0.44), Anderson (0.44), and Samuel (0.43) rank within the top-25 WRs in FPs/route (FPRt) over the last two seasons. Oh, by the way, the Lions play from Cover 1 at the NFLs highest rate!
Andy Dalton, DAL ($5,300 DK | $6,900 FD) vs. Vikings’ Cover 2
As you peruse through the player recommendations: Tannehill? Definitely. Bridgewater? Yeah, okay. Andy Dalton?!? What is this guy talking about?
Without the data in front of me, I’d follow right along with that line of questioning. However, after a pair of replacement-level quality starts against Arizona and Washington, Dalton will have the red carpet rolled out in front of him in Week 11. During his 10-year career, Dalton has taken a roller coaster ride from being just on the cusp of becoming the future of the Cincinnati offense to one management couldn’t replace fast enough. One of the abilities that has allowed “The Red Rifle” to make it this far is his destruction of Cover 2 defenses.
While I don’t have the data prior to the start of the 2019 season, what I do have from his last 700-plus dropbacks is compelling enough that he deserves some consideration. How many other QBs have an Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup in tow, priced at $5.3K/$6.9K? In return for the 15 percent of dropbacks over Dalton’s last 17 games, he’s pieced together 20 percent of his yardage, and 24 percent of TDs (4-1 TD-INT). That may not blow you away, but Dalton ranks fifth in the league with 0.39 FP/Db when facing Cover 2 over that time.
Dalton will face off with Cover 2 shells from the Vikings at an NFL high 27 percent on Sunday. With one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL from Minnesota, the Vikings will attempt to limit the Cowboys’ offense, not with defense, but with the second-highest rushing rate, and third-lowest pace. Dallas ranks first in the NFL with 76.0 offensive plays/game. If the Cowboys can keep Dalvin Cook off the field, Dalton stacked with some of his drooling-for-primetime WR trio could end up on the Milly-Maker winning ticket this weekend.
Terry McLaurin, WAS ($6,900 DK | $7,300 FD) vs. Bengals’ Cover 1
It just doesn’t seem to matter who is under center with this guy. Just when we think Terry McLaurin has shown his hand, he continues to pull aces from under his sleeve. In Week 10, it was Alex Smith that fed “F1 McLaurin” with a 7/95/0 receiving line, and 122 total yards. McLaurin faced off with Detroit’s Cover 1-heavy defense in the effort. For Week 11, it’ll be much of the same from Cincinnati on WFCs home field in Landover. The Bengals play Cover 1 on just under 40 percent of snaps (fifth-highest).
As detailed last week, Cincinnati is rostering a defender on the verge of making a name for himself in William Jackson III. Outside of being caught flat-footed on a46-yard stutter-and-go to Diontae Johnson last week, Jackson limited his coverage responsibilities to a 2/20/0 line (9.6 FPs in total). However, as Johnson learned last week, the Bengals refuse to allow Jackson to travel with his opposing No. 1’s. Johnson relocated away from Jackson on 52 percent of routes, resulting in 70 percent of his 26.6 FPs.
Without Jackson slowing, as Matthew Berry likes to call him, “Terry McScorin” down, it’ll be up to either Tony Brown or, if he clears the concussion protocol, LeShaun Sims to stand between McLaurin and paydirt on well over half of snaps aligned away from Jackson at RCB. Sims has permitted a near-perfect passer rating when targeted and the 10th-most FPG (14.2) from CBs to his coverage this season. Brown has only played that single game against the Steelers when he allowed 18.8 FPs.
All of that said, this “Scary Terry” tout is not entirely built around the CBs he’ll face. McLaurin has been one of the most dangerous WRs against Cover 1 schemes over his career. He currently ranks ninth with 0.59 FP/Rt against Cover 1 during his 23-game career. On 28 percent of snaps facing Cover 1, McLaurin has rewarded his offense with 34 percent of yardage, and 50 percent of his career TDs. McLaurin is locked in as a staple for Week 11 lineups.
A.J. Brown, TEN ($7,2000 DK | $7,500 FD) vs. Jimmy Smith, BAL
At the time of this writing, Jimmy Smith is questionable after missing Week 10 with an ankle injury. If he is unable to cover his usual station at RCB, Marlon Humphrey will once again slide over from the slot. Make no mistake, Humphrey and Smith are well above average in coverage. However, the Ravens’ Cover 0 and 1 man, and 3 zone combo secondary was constructed under the expectation that the pass rush would reach the QB so quickly that jamming WRs at the line of scrimmage would be enough to thwart passing attacks. As I’ve already covered, the absence of Calais Campbell, Baltimore’s most dangerous interior defender, will end up redirecting that expected pressure on their own secondary.
Without their two interior run stoppers, Derrick Henry will force the defense to shy away from utilizing its Cover 3 in order to load the box. In its place, the secondary will be asked to man-up on the Titans’ WRs. Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a recipe for success. Henry has only averaged 13.8 FPG in three career games against the Ravens. However, that version of Tennessee was led by Marcus Mariota. Even more, it was without A.J. Brown. During his career, Brown has feasted on man coverage to the tune of 2.86 yards/route run (YPRR), and a 24 percent increase in FPRt. On 29 percent of routes, he’s collected 40 percent of yardage, and 43 percent of his career TDs.
Amari Cooper, DAL ($5,400 DK | $6,900 FD) vs. Vikings’ Cover 2
If I kept your attention after the Andy Dalton recommendation, you are clearly as much of a DFS degenerate as myself, and you’ll definitely appreciate this analysis. Very few QBs do well when facing Cover 2 secondaries. Only seven other QBs have collected 80 percent of the FPDb of Dalton. For example, Dak Prescott averaged 22 percent less FPDb during his last two seasons. Dalton’s ability to diagnose the league’s highest Cover 2 rate will have a trickle-down effect on his WRs production.
As with most WRs these days, Amari Cooper shifts all over the formation within Dallas’ 11 personnel. Since he will run around half of all routes from RWR, he’ll land within Kris Boyd’s area of the zone as one of the only healthy CBs on the roster. The 2019 seventh-rounder from Texas has permitted 39.7 total FPs over his last three games and a 134.6 passer rating when his coverage is targeted. CeeDee Lamb has been a tad better than Cooper when facing Cover 2’s, but the change in QB should provide a boost across the board. Finally, Cooper has put together a 16/226/1 receiving line on 23 targets in two career games against the Vikings (22.3 FPG).
Adam Thielen, MIN ($6,300 DK | $7,900 FD) vs. Cowboys’ Cover 4
It’s very rare that you’ll see me tout Adam Thielen outside of games facing man coverage-heavy defenses. However, this happens to be one of those occasions. If you remember back to Week 1, the Packers built a 19-point lead at the end of the third quarter. The Minnesota offense had been closed off from production to embarrassing lengths. Without regard to that success, Green Bay decided to defend from a Cover 4 during the final quarter. Kirk Cousins immediately recognized the shift from the Cover 2, 3, and 6 formula, and began connecting with Thielen for what amounted to 5/80/2 of his overall 6/110/2 receiving line and 79 percent of Cousins’ Week 1 FPs.
The closest Thielen has come to that many Cover 4 snaps was last week against the Bears when he produced a 4/43/2 line and 20.3 FPs. That is, until he is opposed by Dallas’ fifth-highest rate of Cover 4 (21 percent) in Week 11. To top that off, the Cowboys also play a considerable amount of man from a Cover 1 (26 percent). Not high enough to push the Minnesota passing offense to must-start status, but enough for us to expose several GPP lineups to Cousins and Thielen. I wouldn’t go as far as to stack Justin Jefferson with Thielen since the Vikings’ pace ranks toward the bottom from running so much. If you prefer Jefferson to Thielen, a Cousins-Dalvin Cook-Jefferson stack would cover your bases, and make a lot more sense.
Jared Cook, NO ($4,100 DK | $6,100 FD) vs. Foyesade Oluokun, ATL
Let’s keep this simple. The Falcons have allowed opposing TEs to average the most receptions (6.1), yards (66.3), and TDs (0.89) this season. Over the last two seasons, Jared Cook’s FP/Rt jumps up by 26 percent, his air yards/target by 14 percent, and his YPRR by 15 percent when facing a Cover 1. On 29 percent of routes opposed by a Cover 1, Cook has accumulated 35 percent of his yardage, and 54 percent of his TDs. At $4.1/$6.1K, Cook is currently my No. 1 DFS TE for Week 11. The only thing standing in his way will come from the play under center.
Tyler Higbee, LAR ($3,600 DK | $5,300 FD) vs. Buccaneers’ Cover 3
Tyler Higbee lost out on a good chunk of this season due to a hand contusion. Many thought the Western Kentucky product would catapult into the top-five TEs after a string of monster outings to end the 2019 season. He may still have time yet to restore some of that trust. Higbee’s salary has dropped by around 35 percent the last eight weeks following a three TD effort from Week 2. It was expected that the Rams would shift to a 12 personnel-heavy offense to get both Higbee and Gerald Everett onto the field together. That failed to materialize with Higbee playing around 25 percent more inline, and Everett playing twice as many snaps out wide.
In Week 11, the Rams will go head-to-head with the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have only allowed 12.9 FPG to TEs this season (17th). However, they have allowed 0.60 TDs to TEs (11th) and 17.2 FPG to the position (3rd) over their last four games. Higbee is getting healthy at the perfect time to face Tampa Bay’s collection of coverages. The combined 73 percent of Cover 1, 2, and 3 snaps Tampa Bay will defend from are of particular interest. Against Cover 1 on 26 percent of snaps the last two seasons, Higbee has given us 27 percent of yardage, and 100 percent of his TDs. Against Cover 2, Higbee ranks eighth in FP/Rt (37 percent increase), and he’s generated just below his average FP/Rt against Cover 3 shells without TDs padding the stats.
Taysom Hill, NO ($4,500 FD) vs. Falcons’ Cover 1 | 2 | 3
For the second week in a row, I’m highlighting the upside of Taysom Hill priced at the basement $4.5K salary on FanDuel with the TE designation. If Hill were to be named the starting QB for Week 11, he should be rostered in 100 percent of FD lineups, and his ability to use his legs would also hold a great deal of value on DraftKings at only $4.8K. For now, to be entirely clear, Hill is a FD-only play. Even if he continues to play on around a third of offensive snaps -- which is entirely unlikely with the Saints missing Drew Brees -- Hill will see enough touches to provide equivalent upside to other TEs at his price point.
Should Jameis Winston be named the starter, we can definitely expect to see Hill replace him in short-yardage, and goal-to-go situations. Hill has garnered 25, 29, and 53 percent carry shares over his last three games. That 53 percent spike is very promising since six-of-eight carries came after Brees left the game. If I told you that you could roster a TE at minimum price guaranteed for at least eight touches and goal line work, you’d trip over yourself for exposure. Guess what, that’s exactly what I’m telling you. You know what to do.
Other matchups to consider:
Justin Herbert, LAC ($6,800 DK | $8,500 FD) vs. Jets’ Cover 2 | 6
Kirk Cousins, MIN ($6,200 DK | $7,100 FD) vs. Cowboys’ Cover 4
Joe Flacco, NYJ ($5,000 DK | $6,100 FD) vs. Chargers’ Cover 3
Tyreek Hill, KC ($8,000 DK | $8,500 FD) vs. Raiders’ Cover 2 | 6
Michael Thomas, NO ($7,300 DK | $8,200 FD) vs. Kendall Sheffield, ATL
D.J. Moore, CAR ($5,600 DK | $5,400 FD) vs. Amani Oruwariye, DET
Chase Claypool, PIT ($6,100 DK | $6,400 FD) vs. C.J. Henderson, PIT
Austin Hooper, CLE ($3,900 DK | $5,100 FD) vs. Jalen Mills, PHI
T.J. Hockenson, DET ($4,200 DK | $6,000 FD) vs. Panthers’ Cover 3
Eric Ebron, PIT ($4,000 DK | $5,400 FD) vs. Josh Jones, JAX
Matchups to Avoid
Aaron Rodgers, GB ($7,000 DK | $9,000 FD) vs. Colts’ Cover 2 | 3 | 6
It bums me out a bit every time I reach this point in the article. Writing up the negative aspects of a player’s upside is nowhere close to passing along the positive news of a breakout. However, I do find eliminating names as a bit of relief since it allows us to shorten the overall list. For most of this season, Aaron Rodgers has provided as much reliability as any at the position. That said, a Week 11 showdown with DC Matt Eberflus’ Indianapolis defense should have you looking elsewhere. As I’ll explain later for Davante Adams, I am not calling for Rodgers to faceplant. Outside of his uncharacteristic outing at Tampa Bay in Week 6, Rodgers has produced at least 19 FPG in every game this season.
The Colts are unlike any defense in the NFL other than, maybe, the Rams. The Indy coaching staff has put together a defense that is so much more than a handful of superstars carrying the rest of the roster. Not that they are without superstars, Darius Leonard and DeForest Buckner headline the NFLs top overall defense. The most impressive aspect has been its ability to mask coverages from even the most knowledgeable minds. The Colts have allowed the fewest FPG to QBs, third-fewest to RBs, sixth-fewest to WRs, and fewest to entire offenses. At $7K/$9K, we’ll need Rodgers to reach 21/27 FPs to cover floor value. Only two QBs have been able to collect at least 21 FPs in nine games.
Tom Brady, TB ($6,500 DK | $7,900 FD) vs. Rams’ Cover 4 | 6
Love me some Tom Brady … in the right matchups. Playing against enough Cover 1 and/or Cover 3 snaps, Brady can be relied upon for around 20-30 FPG. Unfortunately, Brady will not be given those allowances in Week 11. The Rams have played the second-fewest Cover 1 and ninth-fewest Cover 3 snaps this season. To make matters worse, the entirety of the secondary that has limited opposing QBs to the only 14.2 FPG (2nd) is at full strength. What will be especially daunting for Brady is that Los Angeles is limiting WRs to the fewest FPG (27.4).
With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown locked up, Brady’s options will evaporate. When Brady has faced off with a Cover 4 on 11 percent of dropbacks over his last 27 games, his FPDb dips by 25 percent, and he’s thrown for five percent of TDs. Against Cover 6 on 13 percent of snaps, his FPDb also drops by 25 percent, and he’s thrown for four percent of TDs.
Davante Adams, GB ($8,600 DK | $9,500 FD) vs. Colts’ Cover 2 | 3 | 6
The craziest part about potentially fading Davante Adams is that no single defender can be pointed out as the reason. The Colts do not travel their CBs and the secondary will stick to six defensive backs within a revolving door of schemes. Indianapolis is limiting opposing backfields to 10.0 pure rushing FPG, the second-fewest rushing first downs puts a great deal of pressure on the passing offense to generate first downs. That’s easier said than done against a defense allowing the ninth-fewest passing first downs this season.
Do I expect the Colts to ghost one of the most explosive athletes in the game? Not a chance. For comparison’s sake, look back to his results from Week 6 (6/61/0) or Week 10 (8/66/1) for anticipated returns on your $8.6K/$9.5K investment. If you feel he’ll exceed 25.8/28.5 FPs enough to push your lineups up the charts, don’t let anyone stand in your way. But do keep in mind that the ankle injury Adams suffered in Week 10 is still very much in play.
Mike Evans, TB ($6,000 DK | $7,100 FD) vs. Jalen Ramsey, LAR
Just as in Jared Cook’s case, albeit with opposite reasoning, we’ll keep this very simple. Mike Evans will enter Week 11 with the most disheartening matchup of the weekend: a date with Jalen Ramsey. It must be so frustrating to know that Ramsey is thoroughly ghosting you from meaningful production when he isn’t even focusing 100 percent of his attention your way.
Ramsey will travel from both sides of the field to the slot across from his guy, but he’s not in man coverage. Ramsey is also focused on his section of zone responsibility while simultaneously preventing his coverage from gaining anything after the catch. Ramsey is allowing 50 percent less than the league average in FPs/coverage snap (FPCS) and nearly 66 percent less in yards/coverage snap (YPCS). Evans is quite simply the worst value on the entire slate.
Jarvis Landry, CLE ($5,500 DK | $5,900 FD) vs. Darius Slay, PHI
Jarvis Landry was fortunate in Week 10 to avoid Bradley Roby. Without Odell Beckham Jr. protecting Landry from lockdown corners, his time is running out on eventually picking up a shadow. Even without the tail, Landry only managed a 3/29/0 receiving line. However, the fact that Cleveland was assaulted by winds of up to 20 MPH, part of that result can be written off. That said, the Browns need so much more from Landry if they are going to do anything of substance this season.
As for Week 11, we can’t know for sure who Darius Slay will pinpoint for statistical elimination. Slay is limiting his opposing No. 1’s to 1.17 YPCS (CB average is 1.48) and 0.24 FPCS (CB average is 0.31). He could haunt Rashard Higgins over 60 minutes or set his sights on Landry. Either way, Landry will once again need to deal with inclement weather (10-16 MPH winds and 67 percent chance of rain) and the potential of the Eagles’ isolation defender draped across him throughout.
Jakobi Meyers, NE ($4,900 DK | $6,000 FD) vs. Bradley Roby, HOU
After four straight games as Cam Newton’s No. 1 target, we have enough tape on file, and data to suggest that he’s destined for eventual NFL stardom. Meyers has put the entire passing offense on his shoulders for the run-first attack over that stretch. However, we will need to put his eventual rise to fame on the backburner for Week 11. The Texans’ lockdown incarnation, Bradley Roby, will track Meyers step-for-step using his 4.39 speed that has limited his responsibilities to 0.73 YPCS, and 0.22 FPCS. Look elsewhere.
Rob Gronkowski, TB ($4,300 DK | $6,200 FD) vs. Rams’ Cover 4 | 6
Rob Gronkowski has begun to hit his stride after a season of retirement. He’s collected at least 13.1 FPs in four-of-five and averaged 12.9 over his last five. In a season devoid of TE production, his return has been a windfall to the position. Gronk will never find his way back to his pre-retirement levels, but the current iteration holds plenty of fantasy value. That said, he will end up as another casualty of the Rams’ stifling zone defense. While Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-most receptions to TEs, they’ve only resulted in the 16th-most FPG. Nailing the coffin, Gronkowski ranks 39th in FP/Rt against both Cover 4 and 6 shells this season.
Noah Fant, DEN ($4,500 DK | $5,700 FD) vs. Eric Rowe, MIA
For a team that affords such a high target share to their TEs (27 percent combined), we would need considerable evidence to fade their options entirely. The Dolphins have limited opposing TEs to 0.22 TDs/game (25th) and 11.2 FPG (21st) despite allowing 5.22 receptions/game (10th). Much of the success is the result of the work done by Eric Rowe. Rowe followed HC Brian Flores from New England to become one of the most important defenders for Miami. He’s allowing a minuscule 0.59 YPCS and 0.15 FPCS while playing all over the field. A lingering high-ankle sprain and the questionable status of Drew Lock leave Noah Fant as an easy Week 11 fade.
Other matchups to avoid:
Carson Wentz, PHI ($5,700 DK | $7,400 FD) vs. Browns’ Cover 3 | 4
Cam Newton, NE ($6,200 DK | $7,600 FD) vs. Texans’ Cover 1 | 3
Derek Carr, LV ($5,300 DK | $7,000 FD) vs. Chiefs’ Cover 2 | 4
Keenan Allen, LAC ($7,400 DK | $8,000 FD) vs. Brian Poole, NYJ
Tyler Boyd, CIN ($5,600 DK | $6,600 FD) vs. Washington’s Cover 3 | 4
Josh Reynolds, LAR ($3,900 DK | $5,700 FD) vs. Jamal Deam, TB
Willie Snead IV, BAL ($4,500 DK | $5,200 FD) vs. Desmond King II, TEN
Jonnu Smith, TEN ($4,700 DK | $5,800 FD) vs. Chuck Clark, BAL
Robert Tonyan, GB ($3,200 DK | $5,600 FD) vs. Darius Leonard, IND
Logan Thomas, WAS ($3,300 DK | $5,200 FD) vs. Vonn Bell, CIN