The Bottom Line: Week 15 DraftKings & FanDuel Cash & GPP Plays

dfs

We hope you're enjoying this old content for FREE. You can view more current content marked with a FREE banner, but you'll have to sign up in order to access our other articles and content!

The Bottom Line: Week 15 DraftKings & FanDuel Cash & GPP Plays

Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).

For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, GB at BAL ($7.5K DK | $7.6K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 5-8%

  • FanDuel: 8-11%

Week 14 Opponent: Chicago Bears

Results: 29-of-37, 341 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 29.6 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens

Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 10th-highest of Cover 6

Allowances:

  • 4th-most FPG through the air to QBs (16.4)

  • 2nd-most passing YPG (266.1)

  • 3rd-most YPA (7.44)

  • The highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%)

  • The highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.63%)

History of Scheme Success:

  • vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):

  • 27 TDs vs. 3 INTs

  • 4th-most FP/Db (0.53)

  • 4th-highest passer rating (107.7)

  • vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):

  • 5 TDs vs. 1 INT

  • 2nd-most FP/Db (0.42) FP/Db

  • 3rd-highest passer rating (107.1)

Game Type: BOTH

The Bottom Line: Attacking the litany of absences in the Baltimore secondary did not even factor as a compelling reason in investing into Mr. Rodgers. That’s just how smash this spot is for Rodgers to go nuclear.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. TEN ($5.6K DK | $6.6K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 1-3%
  • FanDuel: 1-3%

Week 14 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

Results: 28-of-40, 308 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 23.8 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Tennessee Titans

Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 4 and 12th-highest rate of Cover 1; only 3 other teams have used Cover 4 at a higher rate over the last 5 weeks

Allowances:

  • 7th-most FPG to QBs (18.6)

  • 11th-most passing YPG (250.7)

  • 13th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)

  • 10th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)

Scheme History of Success:

  • vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):

  • Leads all qualified QBs with 0.44 FP/Db

  • 2nd-highest increase to overall FP/Db average (13%)

  • 7th-highest increase in air yards/attempt (10%)

  • 2nd-highest TD rate (14%)

Other:

  • 56.6 passer rating under pressure, only 7 other QBs have manufactured a lower score – 3 of them are rookies
  • Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value:
  • 71.7 passer rating, 5.6 YPA, and 1 TD vs. 1 INT against the blitz
  • During the last two weeks and Week 11:
  • 126.0 passer rating (43% improvement), 9.0 YPA (38%), and 3 TDs vs. zero INTs against the blitz

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: With a 56.6 passer rating under pressure this season, only seven other QBs have manufactured a lower number – three of them are rookies. Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value, he generated a 71.7 passer rating, 5.6 YPA, and one TD vs. one INT against the blitz. During the last two weeks and Week 11 combine, he’s assembled a 126.0 passer rating (43% improvement), 9.0 YPA (38%), and three TDs vs. zero INTs against the blitz. All of the arrows are pointing upward for this passing offense with Big Ben seeing and reacting to the blitz once again.

Favorite Alternatives

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at NYJ ($5.7K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 11-13% | Game: CASH/Single-Entry (SE))

Joe Burrow, CIN at DEN ($6.1K DK | $7.3K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)

Davis Mills, HOU at JAX ($5.4K DK | $6.8K FD | ExpOwn: <1-2% | Game: GPP)

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at NYG ($7.3K DK | $6.7K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 8-11%
  • FanDuel: 26-29%

Week 14 Opponent: Washington Football Team

Results: 12/45/0, 9.0 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: New York Giants

Allowances:

  • 8th-most rushing YPG (125.0)

  • 11th-most YPC (4.4)

  • 12th-highest rushing first down rate (25.3%)

  • 7th-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs (4.77)

  • 7th-most FPG (26.2)

Other:

  • Posted his best game of the season against New York in Week 5 (28.2 FPs)

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: Dallas jumped out to an 18-0 lead by the end of the first quarter last week. At that point, Elliott had out-snapped Corey Clement 18-to-2, and took 5 carries vs. 1 for Clement. Even if Tony Pollard is able to put in a little work, the expectation is for Zeke to take a 75/25 carry split this week. It’s a get-right scenario for Elliott to prove his knee is back to 100%.

Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CIN ($6.1K DK | $7.0K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 2-5%
  • FanDuel: <1%

Week 14 Opponent: Detroit Lions

Results: 15/73/1 rushing, 1/10/1 receiving, 21.3 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Allowances:

  • 7th-most goal-to-go touches/game to RBs (2.0)

  • 12th-most FPG to RBs (24.2)

  • 5th-most FPG through the air (13.2)

Other:

  • 24.7 FPG during the last three weeks

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: As long as Javonte is removed from the injury report, the path toward another excellent performance is on deck. Buy into the hype.

Favorite Alternatives

James Robinson, JAX vs. HOU ($5.4K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: 13-16% | Game: CASH/SE)

David Johnson, HOU at JAX ($4.9K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 9-12% | Game: CASH/SE)

Rashaad Penny, SEA at LAR ($5.4K DK | $6.1K FD | ExpOwn: 1-4% | Game: GPP)

D’Onta Foreman, TEN at PIT ($5.2K DK | $5.8K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Duke Johnson, MIA vs. NYJ ($4.0K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams, GB at BAL ($8.9K DK | $8.5K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 11-14%
  • FanDuel: 29-32%

Week 14 Opponent: Chicago Bears

Results: 10/121/2 on 13 targets, 34.1 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens

Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 1

Allowances:

  • 13th-most FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (34.5)
  • 2nd-most passing YPG (266.1)
  • 8th-most receiving YPG to WRs (170.8)
  • 3rd-most YPA (7.44)
  • The highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%)
  • The highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.63%)

Individual Matchup: Anthony Averett

Averett’s Coverage Metrics: 1.57 YPCS (5th-most), 0.30 FP/CS (15th-most), 0.21 AY/CS (7th-most)

Adams’ Scheme History (Cover 1, last 3 seasons):

  • 0.77 FP/Rt (the most)

  • 4.05 YPRR (3rd-most)

  • 16.4 YPT (the most)

  • 21% of routes, 30% of receptions, 38% of yardage, 30% of total TDs

Other:

  • Ravens will be without Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, and Chuck Clark

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: Secondary absences are a mountainous draw toward Adams. Baltimore is going to have nothing in response to the hailstorm the Packers’ passing offense is going to bring down on their heads.

Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. TEN ($7.5K DK | $7.2K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 15-18%
  • FanDuel: 24-27%

Week 14 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings

Results: 5/76/0 on 10 targets, 13.3 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Tennessee Titans

Allowances:

  • 11th-most passing YPG (250.7)

  • 13th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)

  • 10th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)

  • 2nd-most FPG to WRs (42.7)

  • 3rd-most red zone touches (2.08)

Individual Matchup: Kristian Fulton

Coverage Metrics: 0.81 YPCS (12th-fewest), 0.18 FP/CS (10th-fewest), 0.17 AY/CS (23rd-most), 59.4 TPR (4th-lowest)

Other:

  • Scored 44% of career TDs in the red zone

  • Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value:

  • 1.94 YPRR, a 73.3 TPR, and zero TDs when defenses blitzed

  • During the last two weeks and Week 11:

  • 5.03 YPRR (a 61% spike), a perfect 158.3 passer rating (54%), and collected all three of the TDs thrown by Roethlisberger

Game Type: CASH/SE

The Bottom Line: “Doctor Pepper” never leaves the field. He’s also garnered at least a 32% target share in 58% of his games and at least 22% in 92%. Fulton presents quite the challenge but, when Johnson has faced a defense limiting opposing WR FPG production outside of the top-20 teams, he averages 21.3 FPG. Diontae is the paid spokesman for the difficulty in preventing a receiver from reaching and/or exceeding floor value when extreme target shares are on the table.

Marvin Jones, JAX vs. HOU ($4.6K DK | $5.7K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 1-3%
  • FanDuel: 1-3%

Week 14 Opponent: Tennessee Titans

Results: 6/70/0 on 7 targets, 13.0 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Houston Texans

Scheme: 7th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2

Allowances:

  • 4th-most YPA (7.36)

  • 10th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)

  • 4th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)

  • 3rd-highest passing first down rate (38.5%)

  • 3rd-most TDs allowed on play action (10)

  • 2nd-most FP/CS on play action (0.48)

  • 6th-highest passer rating on play action (124.2)

  • 7th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws on play action (22.3%)

  • 5th-most red zone touches/game (1.85)

  • 14th-most FPG to WRs the last four weeks (34.4)

Individual Matchup: Desmond King II

Coverage Metrics: 9th-most YPCS (1.47), 10th-most FP/CS (0.32), and targeted at the 7th-highest rate among 76 qualified perimeter CBs

Scheme History:

  • vs. Cover 1 (last 3 seasons):

  • 21% routes, 27% of receptions, 26% of yardage, and 24% of TDs

  • 25% increase in YPRR

  • 26% increase in target share

  • vs. Cover 2 (last 3 seasons):

  • 17% increase in YPRR

  • 10% increase in air yards/target

  • 19% increase in YPT

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: With Darrell Bevell – Jones’ former OC and interim HC in Detroit – now running the show in Jacksonville, the expectation is for the locker room and offense settling down. And we have two years worth of data in support of Bevel peppering Jones with volume.

Favorite Alternatives

DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ ($4.3K DK | $5.8K FD | ExpOwn: 21-24% | Game: CASH/SE)

Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. CAR ($3.7K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 13-17% | Game: CASH/SE)

A.J. Green, ARI at DET ($4.9K DK | $5.7K FD | ExpOwn: 6-9% | Game: GPP)

CeeDee Lamb, DAL at NYG ($7.4K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 6-9% | Game: BOTH)

Van Jefferson, LAR vs. SEA ($5.6K DK | $6.2K FD | ExpOwn: 2-4% | Game: GPP)

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. ARI ($5.2K DK | $5.9K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)

Chase Claypool, PIT vs. TEN ($5.9K DK | $6.4K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Tight Ends

George Kittle, SF vs. ATL ($7.5K DK | $7.6K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: 8-11%
  • FanDuel: 12-15%

Week 14 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Results: 13/151/1 on 15 targets, 34.1 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons

Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 2 and 10th-highest of Cover 1

Scheme History:

  • vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):

  • 2nd-most FP/Rt (0.54)

  • vs. Cover 2 (last 3 years):

  • The most FP/Rt (0.58)

Game Type: BOTH

The Bottom Line: While the rest of the world has been content with mortality, Kittle has been a demigod unleashed with 39.9 FPG over the last two weeks. As long as he’s clear of the injury report, anything under 50% ownership from the field is actionable toward considering Kittle in GPPs.

Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN vs. CIN ($3.3K DK | $5.2K FD)

Projected Ownership:

  • DraftKings: <1%
  • FanDuel: <1%

Week 14 Opponent: Detroit Lions

Results: 5/41/1 on 5 targets, 15.1 FPs

Week 15 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals

Schemes: 10th-highest rate of Cover 2

Allowances:

  • 12th-highest completion rate (67%)

  • 4th-most passing YPG (256.8)

  • 9th-completion rate on 20-plus throws (15.7%)

  • 11th-most FPG to TEs (13.8)

  • 11th-most red zone touches/game (0.77)

  • 2nd-most FPG over the last four weeks (21.5)

Scheme History (last 3 seasons):

  • vs. Cover 2, unqualified for ranking:

  • 0.41 FP/Rt

  • 117.5 TPR

  • 12.2 YPT

Other:

  • Detroit put the 15th-highest rate of Cover 2 on the field last week when Okwuegbunam posted 15.1 FPs

  • The Bengals are scheming the 15th-highest rate of Cover 2 and George Kittle just ran circles around it

Game Type: GPP

The Bottom Line: Albert O has provided solid returns in four-of-six games since coming off IR. While Noah Fant has failed to cover his floor value in six-straight games. If you want an absolute guarantee of big production from a TE, independent of price, you want George Kittle. If you don’t have that much cap space available, but still want a solid guarantee, Dallas Goedert is the call. If the salary-relief category applies, Okwuegbunam is your guy.

Favorite Alternatives

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS ($5.3K DK | $6.0K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)

Zach Ertz, ARI at DET ($5.4K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% DK | 12-15% FD | Game: GPP DK | CASH/SE FD)

John Bates, WAS at PHI ($3.0K DK | $4.6K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)

Defense/Special Teams

Miami Dolphins, MIA vs. NYJ ($3.7K DK | $5.0K FD)

Projected Ownership (Game Type):

  • DraftKings: 12-15% (CASH/SE)
  • FanDuel: 12-15% (CASH/SE)

Dallas Cowboys, DAL at NYG ($3.6K DK | $4.6K FD)

Projected Ownership (Game Type):

  • DraftKings: 1-3% (GPP)
  • FanDuel: 2-5% (GPP)

Favorite Alternatives

*Buffalo Bills, BUF vs. CAR ($3.1K DK *|* $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)*

Green Bay Packers, GB at BAL ($3.3K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: 3-6% | Game: GPP)

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.

Recent Articles