2025 Week 9 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data, we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Lions CB Amik Robertson vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

The Lions have had a ton of injuries in the secondary this year, and neither of their top-two projected perimeter corners (DJ Reed and Terrion Arnold) is projected to play against the Vikings, in the return of pseudo-rookie QB JJ McCarthy to the lineup.

Tough spot against Jettas, right? Well, don’t tell that to Robertson. The undersized Robinson, in his second year with the Lions, has moved inside and outside in the last few weeks to help the Lions by any means necessary. And what Robertson lacks in size he makes up for with competitiveness and physicality. Make no mistake, he wants this matchup.

In Week 18 last year, playing for the NFC North division championship, Robertson shadowed his old high school rival Jefferson on 87.5% of his routes, including moving into the slot. He held Jefferson to 3/54 receiving on 7 targets in his primary coverage.

But Robertson was allowed to play his physical style because the Lions consistently rolled a safety over top of Jefferson…

Robertson deserves credit for slowing JJ down, and it’s going to be very interesting to see how McCarthy’s return to the lineup affects this offense if they can’t protect him (Carson Wentz was getting the absolute crap knocked out of him). Robertson can also be beaten if JJ is able to avoid the contact he’s sure to get at the line of scrimmage and get Robertson off balance.

I like Robertson, but with all their injuries, the Lions have still allowed the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks. We have JJ projected as a WR1 this week, and he might go under-owned in DFS given the uncertainty with McCarthy.

All Systems Go

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings DB Josh Metellus

Considering this a matchup of ARSB and Metellus highlights the limitations of a pure WR/CB breakdown — the Vikings use Metellus as a hybrid safety/slot corner in their blitz-heavy defense, and almost certainly don’t want him in one-on-one matchups with skilled receivers. Because look at how they go…

We have charted Metellus as having allowed 0.52 FP/coverage snap in his primary coverage, 3rd-highest among all CBs, mostly because his matchups come when the pass rush doesn’t get home. Still, he is the primary slot defender, and St. Brown has crushed the Vikings. Over his last four matchups with Minnesota, St. Brown has 33 catches for 439 yards and 3 TD. Advantage Sun God.

My biggest concern is that Minnesota might not keep this game competitive with JJ McCarthy at QB… but Dan Campbell is the type to run the score up against a division rival.

Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs. Colts CB Johnathan Edwards

Lost in the dominance of the Colts’ offense and the resurgence of QB Daniel Jones has been the fact that Indianapolis’ defense has been an absolute sieve to opposing WRs for fantasy football purposes — Indy’s 120 catches are the most allowed to the position of any team in the NFL, and their 313.6 FP allowed are 2nd-most (Dallas). Problems got worse when top perimeter CB Charvarius Ward suffered a fluky concussion in a pregame accident before Week 7 and wound up on IR.

Overall, the Colts are allowing +12.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks, 2nd-most in the NFL (we’ll get to #1 in a little bit). Fantasy Points subscribers cashed a prop bet last week on Elic Ayomanor going against this defense, and Ayomanor wasn’t even the easiest prop to win — Chimere Dike absolutely shattered his.

That leads us to Metcalf, who has only 27 catches in seven games, but he’s scored a touchdown in five of those seven, and went over 10 FP in one of the two others. Metcald runs the plurality of his routes from the LWR alignment, where the rookie Edwards plays a huge majority of his coverage snaps (72%). Among 127 CBs with 50 or more coverage snaps played, Edwards has allowed the 22nd-most 0.35 FP/coverage snap. It’s a testament to Edwards’ work ethic that the undrafted first-year player is even seeming to hold his own out there, but Metcalf is a completely different beast. And for all the skepticism about the Steelers’ chances this year, Aaron Rodgers’ play should be the least of their concerns. I think he’ll target this matchup aggressively. We have Metcalf as a borderline WR1 in this matchup, one of three on the DFS main slate with a projected game total of 50 or more. And if you want to get away from the expected chalk, slot WR Calvin Austin is an intriguing option. Though he’s been relatively quiet, the Colts got smoked by Dike last week, and they’re allowing a 3rd-most +6.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot WRs over the last five weeks. I’ll be eyeing up Austin’s props when they come out.

Colts WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs vs. Steelers DBs

You know how I mentioned that we’d get to the team that allows the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks? Yeah, it’s the Steelers. And it’s a Steeler defense that is not holding up the end of the bargain that Aaron Rodgers actually is — with a competent defense, Rodgers might have this team at 6 wins by now. As it stands, the 4-win Steelers are underdogs to win the AFC North to the 2-win Ravens.

To make the Steelers’ atypical and complete lack of defense worse, their fans have been subjected to death by a million paper cuts — the Steelers have allowed the 2nd-most FPG to opposing WRs on throws from 1 to 9 air yards (behind only the Colts!). So while TE Tyler Warren is justifiably going to be popular for DFS after Tyler Kraft shoved his you-know-what into the Steelers’ faces all last Sunday night, don’t discount their underneath WRs.

Michael Pittman leads Indianapolis with 32 targets from 1-9 air yards, and Josh Downs is second with 29 (Warren has 28). But the key? 23 of Pittman’s targets from 1-9 air yards come from the perimeter, where the Steelers allow a league-high +12.4 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks. Pittman’s 23 targets from the outside of 1-9 air yards is tied for 4th in the NFL with Ja’Marr Chase, who turned 6 such targets into 6 catches for 68 yards just two weeks ago against Pittsburgh (as part of a 16-catch, 161-yard, 1-TD game overall). Pittman also had 6 catches for 113 yards against the Steelers just last season (in a much worse offense). Warren will be by far the most popular Colts pass catcher for DFS, but Pittman at $5900 and Downs at $4400 could create some interesting lineup diversity. Pittman is a high-end season-long WR2 for me, and I’ll be looking at prop markets pretty aggressively. If Downs doesn’t play (hip), I’ll have even more Pittman interest.

Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Cowboys DBs

I mean… if Marv doesn’t get it done this week… You’ve been reading this column all year, and if you have, you know that I don’t have to do a whole lot of convincing to get you to start receivers against the Dallas defense. And even if you haven’t been reading this column all year, I’m sure you’re aware of how despicable the Cowboys’ secondary has been this year, having allowed nearly 20 more fantasy points to WRs than the 2nd-worst defense (Indianapolis), and over 30 more fantasy points to QBs than the 2nd-worst defense (New York Giants).

Their issues in the secondary have been exacerbated by Trevon Diggs suffering a fluke concussion in a home accident, one that landed him on IR. That means the Cowboys have had to roll out Trikweze Bridges in a starting role. And although Bridges got a first-quarter interception on an awful throw by Bo Nix last week, the Broncos worked him the rest of the game, as he allowed 6 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets in his primary coverage — Bridges has allowed 0.56 PPR fantasy points per coverage snap, second-worst among any CB with 50 or more coverage snaps played.

And it’s not like the corner opposite Bridges, Kaiir Elam, has been much better — he’s 13th-worst in the same department. But Harrison (WR43) has once again been a disappointment, as he’s failed to hit 100 yards in any game this season, and he’s scored just 2 TD. That also goes for QB Kyler Murray, who has thrown for no more than 220 yards in any of his five starts this year, while Jacoby Brissett posted 320 and 279 yards passing in his two go-rounds.

The good news for the likes of Scott Barrett is that MHJ isn’t on the DFS main slate, so he can avoid being tempted to play him this week. But for those of us who play season-long, he is (unfortunately) a must-start. Those who need bye-week and injury fill-ins can certainly do worse than Zay Jones or Michael Wilson.

Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson vs. 49ers DBs

Wan’Dale is one of the league’s preeminent slot receivers, running 73% of his routes from inside. And while there aren’t many true man-to-man matchups with a slot corner in the 49ers’ zone-heavy defense (and rookie CB Upton Stout is playing well), opposing slot receivers have had their way with San Francisco.

Over the last five weeks, the niners allow +7.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to the position, 2nd-most in the NFL. And on the whole, they’ve allowed a 2nd-most 580 receiving yards and 6 TD to opposing slot WRs.

Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas vs. Bears slot CB Nick McCloud

I’m burying this one just because all bets are off if Joe Flacco doesn’t play.

I don’t have to tell you that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are must-play guys with Flacco in there, but Iosivas is the Bengals’ primary slot receiver, and the Bears have been crushed by opposing slot WRs to the tune of a league-high 17.5 FPG, 10.6 YPT, and 8 touchdowns.

Iosivas is a $3400 lineup-filling dart throw on DraftKings, but given Flacco’s uncertain availability, there aren’t many props currently on the market to consider betting.

Pump the Brakes

Broncos WRs vs. Texans DBs

As expected, the Broncos absolutely ate against Dallas’ woeful defense last week, combining for 12 catches for 196 yards and 3 touchdowns. The last number there — 3 TDs — is notable because that is the total number of touchdowns Derek Stingley and this Texan defense has surrendered to opposing WRs so far this year.

All in all, Houston is allowing 26.6 FPG total to WRs, 4th-lowest in the NFL, and Bronco QB Bo Nix has shown he can be turnover-prone against a difficult defense.

I’m downgrading this receiving corps across the board, with Courtland Sutton projecting as merely a WR3 for us this week, and Troy Franklin only a dart throw after his breakout game against Dallas. For fantasy purposes, those guys would in theory get a boost if Marvin Mims (concussion) sits out.

I have the feeling this could be a low-scoring game in general.

Bills WRs vs. Chiefs DBs

You probably don’t have the luxury of sitting slot WR Khalil Shakir, given he’s been a rock-solid WR2 for the better part of a month, but Steve Spagnuolo has his secondary absolutely locking down wide receivers.

Over the last five weeks, Kansas City has allowed -7.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, 6th-lowest in the NFL. They’ve also given up the 6th-fewest FPG to WRs in general, and the fewest total receiving yards to outside WRs (610) of any team that has played a full eight games so far.

It’s no wonder the Bills are rumored to be in the market for a field-stretching WR. I’m taking some Keon Coleman under props.