Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 9. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
My Typical Posting Schedule
Mondays 9 to 11 a.m. — Initial ATS picks
Wednesdays 3 to 6 p.m. — Initial Player Props
Thursdays 3 to 5 p.m. — Second wave of Player Props
Fridays 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. — Third wave of Player Props
Saturday 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. — Fourth wave of Player Props
Sunday 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. — Final Players Props
Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 82-40 (67.2%, +36.26 units); Week 9: 13-1 (+12 units)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 63.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) (W)
- FP Projection: 74.9 yards, 95+ yards and 5+ receptions in 3-of-4 games w/o Tyreek, his lone down game in that span came in the wind/rain in Cleveland, BAL deploys the third-highest rate of man coverage (39.4%), Waddle averages .29 TPRR 1.89 YPRR on 35 routes against man, BAL allows the 14th-most YPRR (2.01) and the eighth-most receiving YPG (117.9) to receivers aligned out wide, Odunze posted 7/114 receiving in this matchup last week. Bet to 66.5 yards. Placed at 9:02 a.m. on Oct. 29.
