2025 Week 9 DFS Coverage Shells

I hope you’ve had a great week, everyone! Let’s make it better.

The following teams are on a bye in Week 9:

• Cleveland Browns

• New York Jets

• Philadelphia Eagles

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Of the 11 Sunday main slate games, 7 will be played outdoors. It’s important to keep track of the weather forecasts as the weekend progresses.

10 out of 22 offenses on the main slate are projected to score 25 points or higher.

Let’s get it started!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

In this week’s article, each main slate game I cover will be composed of an offense in the top right quadrant, and playing in an implied “close” game to chase volume along with totals:

The following chart shows how often QBs are leaving the pocket due to pressure or bailing on their own fruition, as well as the percentage of all pass attempts that go to their first read.

My intent here is to simply visualize playstyles, and this isn’t trying to dictate who is good or bad based on the quadrant they're in:

ATL @ NE

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) travel north to Foxborough, MA to take on the New England Patriots (6-2) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Patriots are currently 5-5-point favorites and the game total is hovering around 44.5 points.

ATL is coming off a tough 34-10 home loss vs MIA, while NE is coming off a 32-13 home victory vs CLE.

Drake Maye ($6,500) is priced as the DK QB4 on the Sunday main slate, while Michael Penix Jr. ($4,800) is priced outside the top 15 QBs.

There are some key injuries to be aware of with ATL:

Neither Michael Penix nor WR Drake London ($6,400) played in last week’s game vs the Dolphins. Both are considered questionable for this Sunday but likely play. London is priced as the WR10.

LB Divine Deablo is PFF’s 4th-highest graded LB this season with an 86.0 Defensive Grade, but he got hurt in Week 7, which landed him on the IR.

From Weeks 1-6, ATL ranked 4th among defenses in dropback success rate (43.5%) and 5th in EPA/dropback (-0.031).

From Weeks 7-8, ATL ranks 30th among defenses in dropback success rate (54.2%) and 23rd in EPA/dropback (+0.186).

On/off splits can be deceiving, but just watching the games, there’s a clear impact from Deablo’s absence.

DT Zach Harrison has played in every game this season except during last week’s game vs MIA due to a leg injury, and his status is questionable this week at NE.

Rookie EDGE Jalon Walker hasn’t played in the team’s last two games due to a groin injury, and his status is questionable this week at NE.

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

As previously mentioned, Drake London didn’t play in last week’s game vs MIA.

London in two games without WR Darnell Mooney ($4,200) this season:

• 26.4 XFP/G

• 24.2 PPG

• 45.5% First-Read Target Share

• 40.5% Target Share

• 0.45 TPRR

• 3.23 YPRR

• 0.136 1DRR

London in four games with Mooney:

• 12.4 XFP/G

• 13.4 PPG

• 31.8% First-Read Target Share

• 22.7% Target Share

• 0.24 TPRR

• 2.12 YPRR 0.091 1DRR

Drake London is averaging nearly double the expected points per route run without Mooney in the lineup (0.80) vs with Mooney (0.41).

Add the fact that London will be going up against CB Christian Gonzalez, who has allowed just 0.64 yards per coverage snap this season and 0 touchdowns, and you’re probably wondering why I'm even writing up at all. Let me explain.

NE is certainly more of a “pass funnel” defense and stronger against the run than they are against the pass:

The Patriots are the NFL’s top defense vs 11 personnel, allowing just -0.12 EPA/play to opposing offenses. However, they’re a bottom ten defense vs 12 personnel, allowing +0.11 EPA/play to opposing offenses.

ATL lines up in 12 personnel on 44% of their offensive snaps, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. That usage jumps to 49% across four games with both Drake London and Darnell Mooney active.

In their four games together, London clears Mooney both in overall target share and in first-read target share while playing in 12 personnel:

In 11 personnel, London is tied with Mooney for the highest first-read target share, but ranks 3rd in overall target share:

Defensively, NE ranks 12th in man coverage (27%) and 16th in two-high shells (49%).

NE ranks top-10 in usage of Cover 1 (24%), Cover 2 (21%), and Cover 4 (20%), respectively.

Drake London owns nearly a 40% first-read target share and nearly a 30% overall target share vs Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 4 combined:

After a disappointing game for ATL last week and an implied negative game script vs a NE defense that will likely entice you to pass the ball, Drake London could be in line for more volume than expected.

NE allows the 9th-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing TEs (+1.5) and the 7th-fewest to opposing RBs.

More specifically vs RBs, NE allows the fewest adjusted rushing PPG to them (-4.4), but the 6th-highest receiving PPG to them (+2.3).

Bijan Robinson ($8,700) is priced as the RB3 on the main slate. This isn’t a good rushing matchup for him, but I would consider individual receiving props.

TE Kyle Pitts ($4,200) is priced as the TE8 and is pretty affordable if you’re buying the NE pass funnel defense but are worried that London gets locked up by Gonzalez.

Defensively, ATL ranks 1st in single-high usage (72%) and 11th in zone usage (77%). More specifically, ATL deploys Cover 3 on a league-high 51% of its coverage snaps.

Stefon Diggs ($5,700) is priced as the WR18 on the main slate. Diggs averages 3.21 yards per route run vs single-high, which ranks 5th out of 97 qualifiers this season.

Per NGS, ATL blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL (45%) and by far the highest rate on third down (57%), as the next highest defense on third down is at 43%.

Stefon Diggs averages 0.80 fantasy points per route run on blitz dropbacks, which is tied for the 4th-highest mark out of 79 qualifiers.

I find this to be relevant heading into Sunday because on early downs, Diggs is standing on the sideline for most of the team’s offensive snaps, but owns a 76% snap share on third down:

RB Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400) is priced as the RB19 on the main slate. Stevenson hasn’t practiced this week due to a toe injury.

Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson ($4,900) is priced as the RB28 and is a solid consideration should Stevenson not suit up.

ATL allows the 10th-highest schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing RBs (+1.3). Looking strictly at its last 5 games, given their injuries on that side of the ball, ATL has allowed the 3rd-most (+6.7).

NE RB Antonio Gibson is done for the year after suffering a torn ACL in Week 5 at BUF.

Early down snap share from Weeks 1-5:

• Rhamondre Stevenson 48%

• TreVeyon Henderson 41%

• Antonio Gibson 19%

After Gibson's injury:

• Rhamondre Stevenson 72%

• TreVeyon Henderson 23%

Inside-10 snap share from Weeks 1-5:

• Rhamondre Stevenson 57%

• Antonio Gibson 25%

• TreVeyon Henderson 18%

After Gibson's injury:

• Rhamondre Stevenson 94%

• TreVeyon Henderson 6%

Rhamondre Stevenson has been on the field like a legit bellcow over the last month or so of the year without Antonio Gibson active. TreVeyon Henderson is definitely worth considering if Rhamondre Stevenson doesn’t play.

IND @ PIT

The Indianapolis Colts (7-1) travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (4-3) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Colts are 3-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 50.5 points.

IND is coming off a 38-14 win over TEN, while PIT is coming off a 35-25 loss vs GB.

PIT is on a two-game losing streak but has scored 25+ points during each of those losses.

Daniel Jones ($6,200) is priced as the QB,7 and Aaron Rodgers ($5,800) is priced as the QB10.

IND has played one game outdoors so far this season, that game being in Week 3 at TEN.

On paper, IND is the best team in the NFL through the first half of the regular season. I thought IND would be favored by more than 3 points in this game, but since they’re not and the game total is over 50 points, we have to look at these defenses.

Both defenses rank in the top three in most schedule-adjusted PPG allowed to opposing WRs and TEs. Both defenses also rank in the top ten in most adjusted PPG to opposing QBs.

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

IND has used play action on a league-high 36% of their dropbacks and ranks 5th in EPA/dropback with play action (+0.36), per NGS.

PIT has actually been good at defending play action. PIT ranks 3rd among defenses in EPA/dropback allowed on play action plays (-0.07).

PIT allows the highest percentage of throws going over the middle of the field (32.2%).

Michael Pittman ($5,900) is priced as the WR15. Pittman dominates the team’s targets over the middle of the field:

Defensively, PIT ranks 3rd in single-high usage (63%) and 5th in man usage (37%).

Their man coverage rate has climbed throughout the season:

And more specifically, their Cover 1 usage surged following their bye in Week 5:

Tyler Warren ($5,500) is priced as the TE2 on the main slate, behind only GB TE Tucker Kraft ($5,700), who put up 36.3 DK points last week against this PIT defense.

Warren will probably be a popular DFS play after Kraft’s big game at PIT in front of a national audience on SNF. However, the coverage matchup doesn’t do Warren any favors, and he’s got opposite man/zone target share splits than Kraft:

IND pass catchers against Man:

Against Cover 1:

Alec Pierce ($4,600) also has a favorable coverage matchup by the numbers, but PIT allows the lowest percentage of throws to travel deep 20+ yards downfield (6.6%), and Pierce is primarily a deep threat, big play, low volume WR.

I think Pittman is worth the premium over Pierce, and if you want a cheaper WR on this IND team, Josh Downs ($4,400) is a more reasonable alternative.

Defensively, IND ranks 11th in man usage (27%) and 12th in two-high usage (52%).

IND progressively deployed Cover 1 up until Week 5, and it’s been on a straight downfall every game over the last month:

Their array of two-high shell variants has gradually climbed throughout the season:

Offensively, PIT drops back at the 5th-highest rate vs two-high (56%) and averages the 3rd-highest points per dropback vs two-high (0.60).

PIT ranks 2nd in 12 personnel usage (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) at 46%, as well as 2nd in 13 personnel usage (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) at 19%.

Their WRs are inherently in valuable target earning scenarios, and DK Metcalf ($5,500) is priced as the WR21 on the main slate.

WR Calvin Austin ($4,000) missed Weeks 6-7. In all 5 games he’s been active, Austin owns a 76% snap share and Metcalf owns a 90% snap share. The next highest WR is at 26%.:

In 2-WR sets, Metcalf owns a 99% snap share, and Austin is at 84%.

In games where he’s active, Calvin Austin leads all PIT pass catchers in first-read target share and overall target share vs Man coverage:

Against Two-High, it’s a more spread-out target distribution:

JAX @ LV

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) travel west and get set to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-5) at 4:05 PM EST on Sunday. The Jaguars are currently 3-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 44.5 points.

Both teams are coming off their bye. JAX entered their bye after playing in Europe in back-to-back games in Weeks 6-7.

Trevor Lawrence ($5,400) and Geno Smith ($4,600) are both priced outside the top 10 QBs on the main slate.

I don’t think this game will be very popular to pluck from, given the amount of high team totals elsewhere and the fact that JAX and LV are both underwhelming offenses relative to preseason narratives.

However, I think this game features some underrated team tendencies and passing matchups that we can exploit for differentiation.

Defensively, JAX (+6.4%) and LV (5.3%) allow the two highest pass rates over expectation to opposing offenses in the entire NFL. They rank bottom ten among defenses in dropback success rate allowed (good for opposing passing attacks), and rank top ten in rush success rate allowed (bad for opposing run games).

Offensively, JAX averages the most plays per game in the NFL (68.9). LV ran a total of 30 plays in their most recent game at KC in Week 7. That is the lowest weekly play count by an NFL offense dating back to 2002:

I think LV could be due for some volume regression, especially after having to sit on that goose egg over their bye week. Combine with JAX league-high play volume, and it would sure set the table nicely for fantasy purposes.

Brock Bowers ($5,000) is priced as the TE4. Bowers hasn’t played since Week 4. Here is the LV usage and pass rate in 12 personnel:

Weeks 1-2 Bowers and Michael Mayer ($3,500) fully active 25% snaps / 59% pass rate

Weeks 1-4 (Bowers active) 25% snaps / 46% pass rate

Weeks 5-8 (No Bowers) 17% snaps / 23% pass rate

This Sunday will be the first time Bowers and Mayer are both active together as full participants since Week 2 (Mayer left Week 3 very early due to injury).

In full games together, LV had incredibly high pass rates over expected:

When Bowers and Mayer are both on the field together, LV is averaging 8.9 net yards per attempt, and 16% of their offensive plays have gone for 20+ yards.

With only Bowers or Mayer on the field, LV is averaging <6.5 net YPA, and roughly 5-6% of their plays go for 20+ yards.

On longer developing/extended throws (2.5 seconds or longer from snap to play), Geno Smith (-17%) and Trevor Lawrence (-12%) rank top 4 out of 33 qualifying QBs in pressure faced over expected, meaning they’re not facing as much pressure as one would expect relative to how long they hold the ball.

This game features two forgiving pass defenses and two offenses coming off bye weeks, both of which entered their most recent game(s) as massive disappointments. It has the ingredients to create a perfect storm of fantasy volume and opportunities.

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

JAX WR/CB Travis Hunter ($4,700) apparently suffered a knee injury late in the week and is important to monitor:

Defensively, JAX deploys zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate (77%). More specifically, they deploy Cover 6 at the highest rate in the league (22%).

Their zone usage plummeted in their most recent game vs LAR in England in Week 7, where they lost 37-7 in a rough negative game script.

Prior to that game, JAX ranked 4th among defenses in zone usage (80%) and 10th in two-high usage (54%).

Jakobi Meyers ($5,300) is priced as the main slate WR25. Meyers was out in LV most recent game and hasn’t played since Week 7.

Looking at the first four games of the year with an active Brock Bowers. Against zone in those games, Jakobi Meyers comfortably led all Raiders in first-read target share and overall target share:

Same thing vs two-high shells:

So that means with Bowers out over the last month, Meyers has dominated the opportunities? Nope! Against two-high with Bowers inactive, Meyers is 2nd in first-read share and 3rd in overall target share:

Against zone with Bowers inactive, Meyers is 2nd in first-read share and 4th in overall target share:

These splits seem very counterintuitive, but Bowers can help open things up for Meyers from a coverage standpoint.

Prior to Week 6, the Jaguars dealt CB Tyson Campbell to the Browns in part of a deal that landed them CB Greg Newsome in return.

During his first game with JAX in Week 6, Newsome played just 7 coverage snaps but allowed a TD on 1 target.

In Week 7, Newsome played 19 coverage snaps and was targeted 6 times, allowing another TD.

23 of his 26 coverage snaps as a Jaguar have come as an outside CB. There appears to be some growing pains in a new scheme and system, and it’s definitely something to monitor.

Brock Bowers will be a popular play this week, and vibes aren’t great with Jakobi Meyers, given he requested a trade before the season, and the deadline is now fast approaching on a 2-5 sinking ship. I’d still consider him based on the coverage matchup.

As for LV defensively, they deploy the most zone coverage in the NFL (84%). More specifically, they’re in Cover 3 at the 2nd-highest clip (42%) and rank 8th in Cover 4 usage (18%).

Trevor Lawrence targets his first-read on 70% of his throws vs zone, which ranks 3rd among starting QBs this season.

Over the last month, 71% of JAX targets have gone to WRs, 2nd-most in the NFL.

Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,200) is priced as the WR11. Thomas has had a disappointing start to his sophomore season, but I think this is a bounce-back game off the bye.

He comfortably leads JAX in first-read target share and overall target share vs zone:

As well as against Cover 3. Against Cover 3, Thomas ranks 8th out of 78 qualifiers in expected points per route run (0.51):

Similar results adding Cover 3 with Cover 4: