Patriots at Colts
Bet – Under 46 points (-110, DraftKings)
Why? – Patriots-Colts has the worst adjusted combined pace for Week 15 between these two very slow, very run-heavy offenses.Over the last eight weeks, the Patriots are 56.5% run-heavy in neutral situations (game within a score in 1st-3rd quarter) while the Colts are at 46.7% run in these situations (8th). Oh, and the Patriots are the most run-heavy offense when trailing (51.3%) while the Colts run at the third-highest rate when they’re behind (47.6%). So, no matter which way this game goes, both of these offenses are going to look to play slow, grind clock, and run the rock. That said, I’m a little surprised that the markets are so aggressive on these offenses' ability to put up points – the total (46) is the fourth-highest on the slate.
Falcons at 49ers
Bet – Under 47 points (-110, PointsBet)
Why? – Falcons-49ers is the worst game of Week 15 from a combined pace / plays perspective between these two slow-paced attacks. Atlanta is really struggling to sustain offense – only Seattle is averaging fewer plays per game over the last eight weeks – and they’ve started to just run the ball way more to try and take some of the pressure off of Matt Ryan. Meanwhile, the 49ers rank 28th in pace and are top-5 in run rate when leading. If this game is a blowout like the spread suggests (SF -10), it could turn ugly fast with San Francisco just trying to grind the clock offensively.
Thursday Night Football
Bet – Over 50.5 rushing yards (-120, PointsBet / -120, FOXBet) & Over 12.5 carries (-115, PointsBet / -120, DraftKings)
Why? – Think we see KC run it a bit more than usual here. Chargers still giving up the eighth-most YPG on the ground to RBs over the last eight weeks (108.9). We have CEH projected for 16 carries and 74 yards.
Bet – Under 30.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -125, FOXBet)
Why? – Under this total in 10-of-13 games this year, Chiefs giving up the second-fewest YPG to TEs (33.3) over the last eight weeks.
Bet – Under 29.5 yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM / -118, SuperBook)
Why? – Under this total in five-straight. Is the No. 3 WR behind Zach Pascal in routes over the last month. Patriots are shutting down opposing WRs to just 78 YPG over the last five weeks. We have Hilton projected for just 24 yards.
Bet – Over 67.5 rushing yards (-110, DK / -112, SuperBook)
Why? – Cruised past this total for 20/100/2 back in Week 10 in his spot start. JJ Taylor was active for that game in Week 10, but is out this week (COVID). Stevenson had 24/78 on the ground in relief of Damien Harris against the Bills in Week 13. Over the last eight weeks, the Colts have been cracked for 4.90 YPC (fourth-most). We have Rhamondre projected for 80 yards rushing.
Bet – Over 30.5 yards (-125, PointsBet / -125, FOXBet)
Why? – Got 12 targets and turned in 84 yards in the first game with their new OC. DJ Moore dinged up. We have Anderson projected for 55 yards.
Bet – Over 52.5 yards (-115, DK / -115, BetMGM / -115, SuperBook)
Why? – Averaging 62 YPG in Kyler’s starts. Now no Nuk. Lions giving up third-most yards per target to WRs. We have AJG projected for 66 yards.
Bet – Over 53.5 yards (-115, BetMGM / -115, SuperBook)
Why? – No Waddle. Has gone over this total in 4-of-6. We have Parker projected for 62 yards.
Bet – Under 46.5 yards (-115, SuperBook)
Why? – Under this total in 7-of-10. Averaging just 34.1 YPG in Zach Wilson’s starts.
Bet – Under 213.5 passing yards (-115, SuperBook)
Why? – We’re going to see Miami light Wilson up with a ton of blitzes and pressure looks, which is not ideal news for this Jets offense. The Dolphins are second in blitz rate (38.1%) and Wilson has crumbled against the blitz for a 45.3% completion rate (worst) and 4.42 YPA (second-worst). We have Wilson projected for 185 yards.
Bet – Under 25.5 receiving yards (-125, SuperBook / -125, FOXBet)
Why? – Under this total in 10-of-13. Playing hurt. Tony Pollard expected to play.
Bet – Over 51.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM / -115, SuperBook)
Why? – Steelers getting shredded for league-high 5.18 YPC over the last eight weeks. Foreman led Titans RBs in carries (11) in the first-half last week while Hilliard had just 3 and McNichols had 1.
Bet – Over 29.5 attempts (-114, FD / -120, DK / -115, PointsBet)
Why? – Averaging 35.8 per game. This total is obviously tied to the spread (JAX -5), but it’s still too low. We have T-Law projected for 35 attempts.
Bet – Under 237.5 passing yards (-115, DK / -115, SuperBook)
Why? – Under this total in 5-of-7 without Ridley. Over the last eight weeks, Ryan is averaging just 29.1 attempts and 205.1 yards per game.
Bet – Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110, FD)
Why? – Over this total in three-straight with his new role. C-Patt has 16, 13, and 16 carries over his last three after averaging just 8.6 carries per game in his first nine games. We have C-Patt projected for 69 yards rushing. Also added over 0.5 rush TD on SuperBook at +174.
Bet – Under 75.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, PointsBet) Why? – Hasn’t come close to touching this number in his two starts with 56 & 58 scrimmage yards.
Bet – Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+162, FD)
Why? – Couldn’t resist this juice. Rodgers is hunting for the MVP. Ravens giving up the fifth-highest TD rate (5.1%) last eight weeks and are down two more CBs.
Bet – Over 90.5 yards (+105, DK / -115, PointsBet / -115, BetMGM)
Why? – I almost never bet huge WR totals like this, but man. Hard to stay away at plus money on DK. Adams has gone for 115, 104, and 121 over his last three games. Ravens are down two more CBs – Westry and Smith. We have Adams projected for 105 yards.
Bet – Under 25.5 receiving yards (-120, PointsBet / -120, FOXBet)
Why? – Browns giving up the fourth-fewest receiving yards to RBs. Jalen Richard is back. Raiders are favored, so less likely they need to check down to Jacobs in hurry-up mode.
Bet – Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – No Landry or Hooper. We have DPJ projected for 50 yards.
Bet – Over 40.5 rushing yards (-125, PointsBet / -125, FOXBet) & Over 42.5 (-110, FD)
Why? – Way too low of a total. Over this in 3 of his last 4. Trailing game-script likely, so Fields will have to run around and make plays.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+150, PointsBet / +145, FanDuel)
Why? – Worth a stab at nice plus money juice. In three games without A-Rob, Mooney had exactly 5 catches in every outing. Bears are huge dogs and will have to throw. Vikings giving up the third-most receptions per game to WRs over the last five weeks.
Bet – Over 44.5 rushing yards (-115, DK)
Why? – Over this total in 9-of-12 and over in six-straight. Full practice on Monday, so he should be close to 100% after having two and a half weeks to rehab his ankle. Washington allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to QBs.
Bet – Under 195.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Washington is in a brutal spot down three starters on the offensive line. We have Gilbert projected for just 130 yards passing.
Bet – Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Over this total in 3-of-4 without Robert Woods and averaging 61.4 YPG in this span. Seahawks have allowed 7 different WRs to go over this total in their last five games. We have Jefferson projected for 60 yards.
Bet – Over 0.5 rush TDs (+194, SuperBook)
Why? – Too deep of odds to not put a piece on.
ROI THIS SEASON
– Game Picks -27.2% (Overall: 16-22)
– Player Props +9.8% (Overall: 191-144)
– Total ROI +5.8%