The Market Report: Week 10

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The Market Report: Week 10

The Market Report is your one-stop Monday shop for all the movement from a big weekend of NFL football.

These are the players who stood out for fantasy-relevant reasons — the good reasons, the bad reasons, and the in-between.

This column will be posted every Monday afternoon.

UPGRADES

Players about whom we’re feeling more optimistic based on recent play or news.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (Bal) — Despite a couple of bad interceptions, Lamar put up massive numbers in Week 9’s win over the Vikings in overtime, in a 65-point shootout that might become commonplace for the Ravens. In addition to going 27/41 for 266 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT as a passer, Lamar ran for 120 yards on 21 totes on Sunday, with only stud RBs Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb running for more yards this week. He has a deep group of receivers with Hollywood Brown and TE Mark Andrews now flanked by promising rookie WR Rashod Bateman, and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) could be back imminently. What’s more, the Ravens’ defense has allowed 26 points per game over the last three contests, 10th-most in the NFL as it continues to pile up injuries (the latest is DB DeShon Elliott, who tore his bicep and pectoral muscles against Minnesota). The Ravens have run 70 plays per game this year, most in the NFL, and a whopping 76 per game over their last three. For a quarterback who impacts literally everything this offense does, that’s going to mean massive, massive fantasy production. (Joe Dolan)

Justin Herbert (LAC) — After a brief mini-slump, Herbert got the cure for what ails — the Eagles defense. Against Philly in Week 9, Herbert basically could have done his taxes in the pocket while receivers were running wide-ass open in the short to intermediate levels. He finished 32/38 for 356 yards and 2 TD, adding a rushing YD as well. This comes after Herbert completed under 60% of his passes in consecutive losses to the Ravens and Patriots. Mostly, though, this blurb is being written as a reminder of how unbelievably easy the Eagles’ defense has been for competent QBs to play against. (JD)

Russell Wilson (Sea) — He’s back. Wilson is clearly expecting to play this week against the Packers (though we don’t yet know which quarterback will oppose him), in a return from a finger injury. Obviously, Wilson raises the floor and ceiling of this offense, with the biggest benefits to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. (JD)

Running Backs

​​Jonathan Taylor (Ind) — Taylor has thrown his hat into the ring to be fantasy’s RB1 for the rest of the season with Derrick Henry going down with a foot injury. He racked up 19/172/2 rushing and 2/28 receiving on a 69% snap share in a victory over the Jets in Week 9. The highlight of the night came on his 78-yard touchdown when he reached 22.05 mph, the fastest speed by a runner this season. Taylor has posted 19+ FP in six straight games thanks to nine TDs in that span, and he’s totaled 110+ scrimmage yards in each of those contests. The Colts are also once again phasing Marlon Mack out of the backfield, which has resulted in a 65% snap share or better in four straight games. He should continue to crush in a favorable matchup against the Jaguars this week. (Tom Brolley)

Christian McCaffrey (Car) — CMC made it through a full game for just the fourth time in 25 tries under Matt Rhule, an accomplishment that feels like it deserves a minor celebration at this point. He once again showed just how special he is when he’s actually on the field, easily totaling 106 scrimmage yards on 18 touches on just a 49% snap share while playing next to the incompetent Sam Darnold. CMC went right back to leading the Panthers in rushing yards (52), carries (14), catches (4), and receiving yards (54) despite playing just half of the snaps. His playing time should grow in the upcoming weeks, but the Panthers are likely to take a slightly more cautious approach with his injuries mounting over the last two seasons. His days as a near full-time player are likely behind him, but he can get back to being the RB1 for the rest of the season if he can stay on the field and see around 20 opportunities per game moving forward. (TB)

Nick Chubb (Cle) — Chubb is a monster. There are few backs in the league who can impact a game in the way he does with such a relatively small role. He did it again against the Bengals in Week 9, propelling this offense with 14/137/2 rushing and 2/26 receiving, including a 70-yard third-quarter TD run that proved to be a dagger. Consider that he’s 3rd in the NFL in rushing (721 yards) and 10th among RBs in FPG (17.4) despite not playing 60% of the snaps in any game this year. He’s essentially a part-time player who gained 45% of the Browns’ yardage in Week 9 despite touching the ball on 35% of their plays. With the Browns’ thin receiving corps now thinner without Odell Beckham, they need the ball in the hands of their best player. That’s Chubb. (JD)

Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl) — Even on a day where Patterson and the Falcons run game went nowhere against the Saints elite front-seven, he still got there for fantasy. At this point, I’m not sure we can upgrade Patterson even more. He just has so many ways to produce with this true RB/WR hybrid role. So, even though C-Patt was stonewalled on the ground, he came through for 6/126 receiving – including the huge 60-yarder that set up a Falcons win. In the three games that Patterson has played without Calvin Ridley, he’s now tallied 7/60, 5/37/1, and 6/126 through the air. You’re basically getting a solid WR2 paired with the “1A” back in a timeshare. It’s incredible. Patterson played on just 56% of the snaps this past week, which actually marked a four-week low, but he continues to get so many high value touches that his snap count really doesn’t matter all that much. Patterson even got a goal-to-go carry this week (but was stuffed). He’s going to be on the RB1 radar for the rest of the way no matter what. (GB)

Alvin Kamara (NO) — Kamara had another strong game against Atlanta as the focal point of the Saints offense with 13/50/1 on the ground and 4/54 through the air. Mark Ingram (9/43 rushing | 5/21 receiving) was heavily involved, too, but New Orleans simply has to play this way and run their offense through their backs because of their lack of depth and talent at receiver and tight end. So, even though Ingram is going to handle about 35-40% of the backfield touches moving forward, these two, once again, can co-exist for fantasy. (GB)

James Conner (Ari) — No Kyler Murray, no DeAndre Hopkins… no problem. The Cardinals absolutely dusted the 49ers with their B-team and James Conner was a huge part of it. After Chase Edmonds left with a high-ankle sprain on the Cardinals first play from scrimmage, Conner was forced into a massive role and ended with a massive day (21/96/2 rushing | 5/77/1 receiving). He played on 77% of the snaps on Sunday, which was the third-highest rate among RBs for Week 9. Conner’s explosiveness and usefulness as a receiver was a real revelation in this game considering that he previously had just five receptions total on the year coming into Week 9. Eno Benjamin mixed in for nine carries, too, but almost all of his work came in mop-up duty. Eight of Benjamin’s 9 carries came in the second-half when Arizona already established a multiple score lead. With Edmonds on the shelf, Conner is going to be a high-end RB2 with a RB1 ceiling moving forward – especially if Kyler Murray (ankle) is able to start in Week 10. (GB)

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle (Mia) — Miami finally snapped their seven-game losing streak against Houston despite Tua Tagovailoa (finger) missing and DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR) being out. The Texans are truly the get-right spot for every team. With Jacoby Brissett under center once again, Waddle was rock solid with 8/83 receiving on 10 targets. In the four games that Parker has now missed, Waddle has seen 9.3 targets per game and turned those looks into 6.8 receptions and 66.8 yards per outing with two scores. So, even though the Dolphins QB play has been less than consistent, Waddle’s role hasn’t. He’s going to get fed targets because Miami has no other options outside of him and Mike Gesicki. Waddle will be on the WR2 radar in Week 10 on TNF against Baltimore. (GB)

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (LV) — He did it! Waller led the Raiders in receiving!! Waller’s 11 targets, 7 catches, and 92 receiving yards were all tops for Vegas in Sunday’s loss to the Giants. Despite Waller having 64 targets — second-most among TEs despite playing just seven games so far — this was the first time he’s led the Raiders in receiving yards since his Week 1 explosion against the Ravens, when he posted 10/105/1 receiving on 19 targets. Obviously, things have changed for the Raiders since then, with the fatal crash involving Henry Ruggs, and Ruggs’ subsequent arrest. Waller’s usage all season suggested a game like this was on the way, and those who play him simply have to suck it up and deal with the statistical lows. But he came out of the Raiders’ bye healthy, and they need him going forward. (JD)

Mike Gesicki (Mia) — Even though he didn’t turn in a huge box score (4/54 receiving), Gesicki’s role was still great. With DeVante Parker (hamstring, IR) on the shelf, Gesicki got 8 targets from backup Jacoby Brissett against the Texans – which was second-most on the team behind Jaylen Waddle (10). Gesicki is now averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 74.3 yards per game in the four games that Parker has missed this season. For reference, Gesicki has seen a huge dip in targets and production with 4.2 receptions and 46.4 yards on 6.2 targets per game in the five contests Parker has played. For as long as Parker is out, we can safely trust Gesicki as a TE1. (GB)

George Kittle (SF) — He’s back! Kittle’s return to the lineup could not have gone any better as he shredded the Cardinals for 6/101/1 on eight targets after missing three games. Kittle did get eased in a little bit – he played on a season-low 73% of the snaps – but it obviously ended up not mattering because the 49ers had to throw the ball a ton in the second-half to try and keep up with the Cardinals. In such a brutal year for injuries, it’s great to have Kittle back. The 49ers get the Rams next up – and Kittle has feasted against L.A. in the past with 8/103, 5/79/1, and 7/109/1 in his last three meetings against them. (GB)

DOWNGRADES

Players about whom we’re feeling less optimistic based on recent play or news.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (KC) — We’re at the point in Mahomes’ downward spiral that it’s time to start considering other fantasy quarterback options, which was unthinkable when you drafted him in the third or fourth round this summer. He failed to top 15 FP for the third straight game as he completed 20/37 passes for 166 yards (4.5 YPA) and one TD in an uninspiring 13-7 victory over a Jordan Love-led Packers’ squad in Week 9. Mahomes has averaged fewer than 6.0 YPA in three straight games and in five of his last seven games, and he’s accounted for just two touchdowns with the Chiefs averaging just 12.0 points per game in the last three weeks. Hey, at least he snapped a seven-game streak with an interception! Mahomes is no longer a must-start with Kansas City’s offense broken for the time being, and they look like a team that desperately needs their Week 12 bye to arrive soon. (TB)

Running Backs

Chase Edmonds (Ari) — Unfortunately, Edmonds went down with a badly sprained ankle on the Cardinals first play from scrimmage against the 49ers and never returned. He could possibly end up going to I.R. this week, which means he’ll miss a minimum of three games. Our Edwin Porras’ research shows that the usual range of weeks missed with this type of injury is 2-4 weeks with the worst-case scenario being 4-6 missed games. In the meantime, James Conner is going to handle a bellcow role for as long as Edmonds is out. (GB)

{{TWEET|

*Mean missed time for a high ankle is 2 - 4 weeks among skill players

*Standard deviation 1.5 weeks

*Mode of 3 weeks

*MRI will help determine the severity before the verdict on 4-6 weeks is confirmed https://t.co/rpMZBCEbBm pic.twitter.com/RBZWUhkhDg

— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) November 8, 2021

}}

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore (Car) — Moore’s once-promising start to the season has started to go up in flames with Sam Darnold absolutely imploding over the last five weeks. Moore managed a season-low 3/32 receiving on a team-best seven targets (21% share) against the Patriots in Week 9, which gives him fewer than 10 FP and 60 receiving yards in three of his last five games. Moore opened the year with 6+ catches and 75+ receiving yards in each of his first four games. Darnold hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in three straight games and he has just two TD passes in his last five games and, last we checked, scoring touchdowns is important for fantasy football. Carolina’s quarterback situation has no signs of improvement in the near future, and Christian McCaffrey is also back in the lineup and commanding touches. Moore’s fantasy fortunes are trending in the wrong direction heading into the second half of the season. (TB)

Courtland Sutton (Den) — Sutton has been an all-or-nothing option this season, and he’s skewing a little too much toward the nothing side with Jerry Jeudy back in the lineup. Sutton managed just a nine-yard catch on two targets (7% share) in a tough matchup against Trevon Diggs and the Cowboys in Week 9, which gives him just nine targets in three games with Jeudy in the lineup this season. Sutton has posted 23+ FP three times this season and he’s fallen below nine FP in five of his six other contests, including all three games with Jeudy playing. Sutton is averaging a career-low 14.3 YPR through the first nine games playing with Teddy Bridgewater, and he’s going to be a volatile WR3 option moving forward with Jeudy reestablishing himself as the top receiver. (TB)

Tyler Boyd (Cin) — Let’s get right to the heart of the matter: Bengal QB Joe Burrow threw a season-high 40 passes in Week 9 against the Browns. Boyd was targeted on 2 of them. Boyd has now been held below 5 catches and 50 yards in six of nine games this season, and for a guy who has always been volume dependent — like the Bengals’ version of Jarvis Landry or Cole Beasley — that isn’t going to cut it. The fact of the matter is that even though Burrow’s obsession with throwing the ball to his BFF Ja’Marr Chase isn’t actually cutting into Boyd’s target share significantly, the targets just seem to be of lower impact. And heck, even when Burrow does throw 40 passes, Boyd is gonna need more than a 5% target share to make it worthwhile. The underlying numbers suggest positive regression is coming, but Boyd has been a fantasy net negative so far. He’s an end-of-bench option, if that. (JD)

Tight Ends

WATCH LIST

Players whom we’re not ready to upgrade or downgrade, but their situations demand monitoring based on recent play, injuries, or news.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (GB) — The Packers managed just seven points in Jordan Love’s first NFL start against the Chiefs in Week 9. Needless to say, Green Bay’s offense needs Rodgers back in the lineup as soon as possible, which happens to be Saturday since the unvaccinated Rodgers must be away from the team for at least 10 days. Rodgers should return to the lineup this week against the Seahawks, but his status shouldn’t be taken for granted since he’ll need to be symptomless to gain clearance after his 10-day isolation period. Rodgers had thrown for multiple TDs in seven straight games before his absence in Week 9, and he’ll look to get back on track with matchups against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Rams looming before their Week 13 bye. (TB)

Dak Prescott (Dal) — Dak played like a quarterback who hasn’t seen much action in the last three weeks because of a nagging calf injury. He completed 19/39 passes for 232 yards, two TDs, and one INT in an ugly loss to the Broncos in Week 9. Nearly all of Dak’s fantasy production came on two late drives in the final minutes of the game with the Cowboys trailing 30-0 at the time. He completed just 48.7% of his passes while averaging 5.8 YPA, which were well below his previous season-lows of 63.6% (Week 4) and 7.1 YPA (Week 2). It’s not time to hit the panic button with Dak after one down performance without LT Tyron Smith (ankle) protecting his blindside, and this passing attack has two plus-matchups against the Falcons and Chiefs the next two weeks to get back on track. (TB)

Kyler Murray (Ari) — No Kyler, no Hopkins, no Watt, no Edmonds… no problem! #QBsDontMatter, right?! Right?! That’s how this works! Joking aside, the Cardinals performance without many of their key players was impressive. Colt McCoy didn’t have to do anything outside of his comfort zone and needed just 26 pass attempts to put away the 49ers on Sunday. Fox Sports Jay Glazer originally reported that Murray’s injury needed about 2-3 weeks to heal and sitting at 8-1 with the Panthers up next, it seems like the Cardinals aren’t in any hurry to rush Murray back. Anyone with Murray on their fantasy squads should prepare for him to miss another game. (GB)

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley (NYG) — Poor Barkley. It seemed like he was poised to return from his ankle injury in Week 9, but a false positive COVID test held him out of practice all week, and coach Joe Judge told reporters that he didn’t want to play Barkley without giving him a chance to practice. That was probably a good call, but with the Giants now going on bye and Devontae Booker (hip) a little dinged up (it’s not expected to be serious), Barkley should be on track to return against a pretty juicy second-half schedule starting in Week 11. (JD)

Damien Harris (NE) — Both Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson left Week 9 in the fourth quarter with head injuries, and neither player returned to the game with the Patriots comfortably ahead against the hapless Panthers. Harris found the end zone and he reached double-digit FP for the fifth consecutive game on his way to 15/30/1 rushing and 1/3 receiving on a 39% snap share. Stevenson turned in season-bests in touches (12) and scrimmage yards (106) on a 27% snap share before leaving early. We’ll see if Harris and/or Stevenson land in concussion protocol this week since the tight-lipped Patriots have yet to indicate the statuses of their young RBs. J.J. Taylor would likely step into some carries if either player misses this week while Brandon Bolden’s role in the backfield could also grow. (TB)

{{Ezekiel Elliott|RB|DAL}] (Dal) — Zeke banged up his right knee in Dallas’ loss to the Broncos in Week 9, but the issue must not be too serious since HC Mike McCarthy was feeding him touches on the final two drives of the game with the Cowboys trailing 30-0. Zeke still managed to reach double-digit FP for the seventh consecutive game with 10/51 rushing and 3/25 receiving with a two-point conversion mixed in. He did play a season-low 53% of the snaps even with his action late in the game, but Tony Pollard didn’t see a huge boost with just 5/43 scrimmage on a 39% snap share. Pollard would be ticketed for a massive workload if Zeke’s knee gets any worse this week and forces him to miss time, and it’s a great bounce-back spot against the Falcons if he’s able to play, as expected. (TB)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams (KC) — HC Andy Reid said last week that CEH is closer to a potential return from his Week 5 knee injury, but Edwards-Helaire is still week to week at this point. That’s notable since the Chiefs have two games before their Week 12 bye so they could err on the side of caution if he isn’t quite at full health over the next two weeks. Williams continues to play solid in relief with his third double-digit FP performance in four tries with CEH out of the lineup. He saw a four-week low 54% snap share against the Packers in Week 9, but he still turned in 19/70 rushing and 3/7 receiving on four targets. He’s posted 3+ catches in five straight games and he’ll continue to be a solid RB2 option for as long as CEH is out of the lineup. (TB)

James Robinson (Jax) — Robinson missed Week 9’s shocking win over the Bills with a heel injury, but the injury is not serious — the expectation is that he’ll be back in Week 10 against the Colts. The Jags got replacement-level work from Carlos Hyde and took a W, but Robinson is the better player and obviously the better fantasy option. (JD)

Zack Moss (Buf) — In a smash spot against the Jaguars as 16-point favorites, the Bills laid perhaps the biggest egg of any team in the NFL this season. To add injury to insult, Moss left the action after just 19 snaps with a concussion. Moss was rightly a popular DFS and FLEX option given the projected gamescript, and while the gamescript never materialized, Moss wouldn’t have been available to take advantage of it even if it had. Hopefully, Moss is feeling OK and doesn’t have too many symptoms. We’ll see if he can gain clearance before next week’s game. (JD)

Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols (Ten) — In the Titans’ first game without Derrick Henry, they didn’t exactly light the world on fire offensively, gaining just 194 yards of offense and averaging 3.5 yards per play as their defense harassed Matthew Stafford all night en route to a victory. And in the backfield, they employed a true committee, with McNichols playing a 45% snap share, the newly signed Peterson a 33% share, and D’Onta Foreman a 21% share. McNichols ran a route on 12 of Ryan Tannehill’s 30 dropbacks, while Peterson ran 8, and Peterson was also the team’s primary goal-line back, playing 4 snaps in those situations compared to 1 each for McNichols and Foreman. This committee will take some time to shake out, and it was also a weird game from a script perspective, as the Titans were heavy underdogs but never trailed after the first quarter. (JD)

Boston Scott (Phi) — This Eagle run game has been effective over the last two weeks — Scott, Jordan Howard, and Kenny Gainwell have combined for 6 rushing TD — but the Eagles also employed a full-blown committee approach in Week 9, with Scott playing 44% of the snaps to 40% for Howard and 19% for Gainwell. With Jalen Hurts barely throwing the ball the last few weeks, the backs have also done nothing in the pass game — no Eagle back was even targeted against the Chargers. They should keep running the ball, but you might need touchdowns for your plays to come through. (JD)

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) — Nuk missed last week with his balky hamstring but it ended up not matter as his team cruised past the 49ers. Hopkins tried to gut through the injury on TNF in Week 8 against the Packers, but didn’t practice all of this past week in preparation for their game against San Francisco – so he wasn’t particularly close to playing. Arizona is 8-1 and obviously has their sights set on the Super Bowl, so there is no incentive for them to push Hopkins or Kyler Murray back too soon. It’s possible that Arizona thinks they can beat Carolina in Week 10 without Murray or Hopkins, too, so make sure you have a backup plan. (GB)

Antonio Brown (TB) — This is just a note that AB is still in a walking boot coming out of the Bucs’ bye and should be considered extremely iffy to suit up in Week 10 vs. Washington. Brown is dealing with a pretty gnarly ankle/heel injury and Tampa will likely be extremely cautious here. They got a gift with Atlanta upsetting New Orleans this past week, so they still have half a game on the Saints despite losing to them in Week 9. (GB)

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (TB) — Right now, it seems like the Bucs’ could be without both Antonio Brown and Gronk in Week 10 vs. Washington. HC Bruce Arians admitted that Gronk shouldn’t have played in Week 8 trying to come back from cracked ribs and a punctured lung and he left their game against the Saints early with back spasms. If Gronk misses another game, the Bucs’ will continue their TE by committee approach with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. (GB)

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