Falcons at Dolphins
Bet – Over 47 total points (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – This is one of the few attractive games on the Week 7 slate from a shootout standpoint, with these two sides combining for the second-fastest matchup in pace and second-most in play volume. We know the Falcons can be a fantasy carnival – everyone scores! – with three of their 5 games against the Buccaneers (73 total points), Washington (64), and the Jets (47) all turning in good-to-great scoring and hitting the over. We are ticking a lot of boxes here for a shootout with Miami throwing a ton, both sides being top-10 in pace, and two powderkeg defenses that rank fourth (Miami) and sixth (Atlanta) worst in points allowed per drive.
Washington at Packers
Bet – Over 47.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – Washington has been waxed by both the Saints and Chiefs over their last two games and they are looking like they’re going to make it three-straight as massive 8-point underdogs in Green Bay. The Team’s defense has given up 29 or more points in five-straight, which has led to their games constantly shooting out even though their offense has fallen apart. Washington giving up points in bunches combined with their fast-paced attack gives this game plenty of scoring upside as The Team’s last five games have combined for 57.2 total points on average. So, even though Green Bay is slow and balanced overall, this is a spot where Aaron Rodgers & Co. might have more volume and fantasy upside than usual.
TNF wasn’t tilting at all… Fant missed by 1 yard because they overturned his first down… Hooper missed because he had a huge 30-yarder on the opening drive, then died… and the Broncos refused to unleash Javonte. Onward…
Bet – Over 39.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – With Albert Okwuegbunam (IR) out over the last three weeks, Fant has seen his usage and production increase. Fant has run a route on 87% of Broncos pass plays in Weeks 4-6, which would be the second-highest rate among TEs over the full season just ahead of Travis Kelce (86%). As a result, Fant has seen 8.3 targets and turned in 54.3 yards per game over his last three.
Bet – Over 46.5 yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Has gone over 47 yards in four of his last 5 games while averaging a strong 5.0 YPC in that stretch. Leads all RBs in missed tackles forced and is sixth in YAC per carry. We have Williams projected for 64 yards.
Bet – Under 22.5 yards (-115, DraftKings)
Why? – He’s been under 20 yards in four-straight, Case Keenum is starting, and Jarvis Landry is back.
Bet – Under 33.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – Has been under 26 yards rushing in four of his last 5 games with five or fewer carries in 4-of-5 as well. We have Gaskin projected for 23 rushing yards.
Bet – Over 55.5 rushing yards (-120, FOXBet)
Why? – Not sure what is going on in the Mixon prop market this week. His rushing yardage is listed in the 55-57 range in all books. Sure, the Ravens aren’t an easy matchup – but Mixon’s volume has been amazing. He’s averaging 20.2 carries and 89.3 yards per game in the five games where he’s had his normal role. We have Mixon projected for a nice 69 yards.
Bet – Over 30.5 receiving yards (-118, FOXBet)
Why? – In his debut, Rashod Bateman was immediately installed as the Ravens No. 2 receiver. He was second among the Ravens WRs in routes runs and he lined up primarily as an outside receiver (19-of-22 routes). Sammy Watkins is out again. We have Bateman projected for 52 yards.
Bet – Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+162, FOXBet)
Why? – Couldn’t resist this juice. The odds (+162) imply about a 40% chance for Rodgers to throw 3 TDs, but we have Rodgers projected for exactly 3 TDs as our base-case. Washington has allowed a league-high 16 passing TDs this year, including four TDs apiece for Allen, Ryan, and Winston. Meanwhile, Rodgers has thrown for at least 2 TDs in every game so far.
Bet – Over 250.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Dolphins have averaged 42 passes per game over the last five weeks. Falcons have given up 260+ yards to every QB they’ve faced so far except Zach Wilson.
Bet – Under 51.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – The Jets are four deep at WR, Zach Wilson is playing extremely poorly, and we have Crowder projected for just 32 yards.
Bet – Over 0.5 INTs (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Lock of the week.
Bet – Over 247.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Trailing game-script likely, Julio and Brown back, Chiefs defense is giving up 291 YPG to passers. The only QBs that have failed to throw for 280+ yards against KC are Lamar and Heinicke. We have Tannehill projected for 280 yards.
Bet – Over 80.5 rushing yards (-118, FOXBet)
Why? – Lions have gotten trucked for 104 yards on the ground by Eli Mitchell, 85 to Packers RBs, 161 to Bears RBs, 113 to Alex Mattison, and 94 to Joe Mixon. Also, Sony Michel (shoulder) is banged up and barely practiced this week. We have D-Hendo projected for 88 yards.
Bet – Under 265.5 passing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Has thrown for 250 or fewer yards in four of his last 5 games and averaged a pitiful 5.3 YPA in his last two outings vs. Vikings and Bengals.
Bet – Over 44.5 receiving yards (-125, FOXBet)
Why? – Averages 6.6 targets and 53 yards per game in starts without Zach Ertz in his career. Raiders gave up 86 yards to Gesicki, 70 yards to Cook, and 97 yards to Fant over their last four games. We have Goedert projected for 58 yards.
Bet – Over 58.5 rushing yards (-125, SI Sportsbook) + Anytime TD (+125, PointsBet)
Why? – Eagles have given up 95 rushing yards to Zeke, 144 to Chiefs RBs, 101 to Hubbard, and 81 to Fournette over their last four games. 20 of Jacobs’ 23 career rushing TDs have come in wins. We have Jacobs projected for 71 yards.
Bet – Under 25.5 rushing yards (-108, FanDuel)
Why? – Cardinals don’t need to put the MVP candidate in danger in a meaningless game. Through six weeks, Murray is 12th in rushing yards per game (19.2) because he is scrambling way less. Per SIS, Kyler is averaging just 1.7 scrambles per game.
Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (-115, WynnBet)
Why? – Davis Mills has attempted 139 passes. 45 of them have gone to Brandin Cooks (32%) while no other Texan has more than 16 targets. Nico Collins and Chris Conley are both questionable.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+105, SI Sportsbook)
Why? – Has over 5 receptions in 4-of-6 games, Bucs are giving up the fourth-most receptions per game to WRs.
Bet – Over 28.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why? – No AB, who leads the Bucs’ in targets. No Gronk either and Howard is questionable. We have Johnson projected for 47 yards.
Bet – Over 65.5 rushing yards (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Has over 67 yards in three-straight as the full-time starter. Bears are without Akiem Hicks. We have Fournette projected for 71 yards.
Bet – Over 200.5 passing yards (-125, BetMGM)
Why? – Averaged 254 YPG in three starts before his injury. Colts are giving up 268 YPG through the air. The Colts have been far easier to pass against (8.30 YPA; 56.4% success rate) than run on (3.91 YPC; 29.9% success rate), and for context, Indy’s success rate allowed on the ground is second-best while they’re dead last through the air. We have JimmyG projected for 247 yards.
Bet – Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM) and over 58.5 yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Going all-in on 49ers passing game overs with the markets so low on them. Deebo is averaging over 100 YPG. Cooks (89 yards) and Hollywood (125) crushed them in this matchup the last two weeks. We have Deebo projected for 74 yards.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+115, SI Sportsbook)
Why? – Hilton is out and Pittman was averaging 6.5 receptions per game in his previous four contests before last week.
Bet – Over 65.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Stevenson out, we have Harris projected for 78 yards.
Bet – Under 18.5 yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? — Has just three catches since joining the team and Tre’Quan Smith is back.
Bet – Under 20.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? — Has cleared 18 yards once all season and hasn’t seen more than two targets in four-straight games.
ROI THIS SEASON
Game Picks -31.3% (Overall: 9-11)
Player Props +21.9% (Overall: 53-34)