2025 Top-5 Sunday Props Record:11-9 (53%)
2025 Props Record (all games): 56-51 (55%)
2025 MNF Props Record: 7-9 (43.7%)
2025 TNF/FNF Props Record: 15-10 (60%)
2025 TD Prop Bankroll: ($900)
Week 4 was another good week of #analysis, yet it was another week with more bad luck than good — although I did get lucky on a few.
I need to track these close calls because they happen every week, so I’m going to start reviewing them on both sides. If I removed half of my close wins and half of my close losses, I’m left with 1.5 close wins, and five close losses, which is typical.
Close wins:
- Won the Sam LaPorta yardage prop by 1 yard.
- Won the Garrett Wilson reception prop on the last play of the game, on a screen.
- Won a Trey McBride prop by 1 yard.
Close loses:
- Lost Javonte Williams over his receiving yardage prop by 4 yards, costing me a 4-1 week with my top-5 props.
- Lost a Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yardage prop by 2 yards.
- Lost a Jaylen Waddle receiving yardage prop by 4 yards.
- Lost a Dalton Kincaid receiving yardage prop by 6 yards.
- Lost a Baker Mayfield rushing prop by 5 yards.
- Tee Higgins lost a 35+ yard catch to penalty, and lost the prop.
- Needed 1 more Pat Mahomes carry, but KC put Gardner Minshew in for two kneel-downs.
- Lost the top-5 Sunday Michael Pittman prop by 11 yards, but he had every chance to hit with 10 targets, and he just missed a long catch, which would have put him well over.
- Probably lost the Emeka Egbuka prop by an inch, since two Eagles defenders were extremely close to breaking up his insane 70+ yard TD. Without that play, he catches 3 passes for 24 yards.
- I lost a Darnell Mooney reception prop, but he did get hurt in the first half and didn’t return.
All this does is make me angry, and when I get angry, I want to get even! By the way, do not play my TD props right now unless we’re sharing a brain. A lot of good calls in that the players get a lot of action, but I can’t buy a TD this year. Last year, I started doing them later in the season with success, so it may be too early for TD predictions for me.
As always, these props are listed in order of priority/appeal. For analysis on the players listed (other than TNF), check out Hansen’s Hints, which will always be posted here on the site Saturday evening.**
