Welcome to Week 4 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (TNF)
Must Start
Jaxson Smith-Njigba – Ranks WR4 in targets per game, WR1 in yards per route run, and WR2 in targets per route run. Decent. JSN has earned a whopping 50% of Seattle’s first read targets, which is 3% higher than the next closest WR (Garrett Wilson – 47%).
Trey McBride – Seattle plays very little man coverage – they run zones 76% of the time – which favors another big day for McBride targets. Over the last two seasons, he’s been targeted on 27% of his routes when facing zone coverage, while his teammate Marvin Harrison (18% TPRR vs. zone) lags far behind.
Start ‘Em
Trey Benson – Gets a chance to have a bell cow workload with James Conner (IR) out for the season. Emari Demercado will only play in a change-of-pace role and take a few passing-down snaps here and there. After Conner’s injury, Benson played on 69% of the snaps while Demercado (24%) mixed in. Benson’s season-long outlook looks amazing, but this is a really tough matchup against a good Seahawks run defense (3.1 YPC allowed | fourth-fewest). He’s a low-end RB1.
Ken Walker – The Saints did a good job bottling up Walker on the ground last week, but he saved his day with two short TDs. Zach Charbonnet (foot) will be back on Thursday night, but he could be a bit more limited on this short week. I do expect Walker to have a more valuable role than Charbonnet this season, but the Seahawks have no reason to saddle up Walker with a bell cow workload. Charbonnet (30%) had a slightly higher route share than Walker (25%) in Weeks 1-2. With Seattle installed as small road favorites (-1.5), Walker projects as a lower-end RB2.
Kyler Murray – Has opened up this season with QB16, QB22, and QB16 scoring weeks. I could see him running a bit more now that James Conner (ankle) is out for the season. Murray is averaging the second-most carries per game (6.7) of his career through three games. While he has a decent rushing floor, Kyler has thrown for 275 or more yards in just 3 out of his last 20 games. As always, he projects as a lower-end QB1.
Sit ‘Em
Marvin Harrison – I ranked Harrison -20 spots below ADP this summer… and that wasn’t low enough! Once again, Harrison is getting out-targeted by Trey McBride. The Cardinals TE is seeing 33% of the first read targets (Harrison 22% – WR43). This is forcing Harrison to live off of WR5-levels of volume. There are 52 WRs with more targets per game than Harrison (5.3). Seattle is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game (69.7) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Zach Charbonnet – After missing last week with a foot injury, he could be a bit more limited than usual on this short week.
Sam Darnold – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Cooper Kupp – With 4.3 targets and 8.0 expected fantasy points per game, Kupp doesn’t have a viable role in fantasy right now.
Stash ‘Em
Tory Horton
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin, Ireland | 9:30a)
Must Start
Jordan Mason – His debut as the starter couldn’t have gone any better. Mason hammered the Bengals for 16/112/2 rushing. He handled a full bell cow workload in the first three quarters of that game with 76% of the snaps before he was pulled in the fourth.
Start ‘Em
Justin Jefferson – The Vikings only needed to drop back to pass 25 times last week, and that should normalize in this tighter game script (Vikings are -2.5 favorites). Carson Wentz was fine in his debut start with a 75% catchable throw rate and -2% completion rate under expectation.
Jaylen Warren – Ironically, this is the role that everyone in the fantasy football community wanted for Warren when he was paired with Najee Harris. Warren’s snap rate (46% > 58% > 78%) has increased in three straight games. OC Arthur Smith will continue to mix Kenneth Gainwell in, but this is clearly Warren’s backfield. If the Vikings defense has one “weakness,” it’s on zone-blocking runs (4.8 YPC and 51% success rate allowed).
TJ Hockenson – Like I said last week, it would be scary hours for Hockenson if he couldn’t wax the Bengals slow LB/S corps. He got there with a strong 5/49/1 receiving line. I’m back to treating Hockenson as a lower-end TE1 in another good matchup. Pittsburgh has struggled against tight ends, allowing 17/211/3 receiving (on 23 targets) against the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots TE groups. They’re giving up the sixth-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the position.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Addison played in 11 games together last season. Jefferson (25%) led the way by target share, followed by Addison (20%) and Hockenson (16%). Addison averaged 13.0 Half-PPR FPG in these 11 contests, which would have made him WR17. By comparison, Jefferson put up 14.5 FPG (WR9).
DK Metcalf – Through three games, Metcalf is a lowly WR47 in targets and expected fantasy points per game. Gross. He just barely has the lead in first read targets (24%) over Calvin Austin (21%) and Jonnu Smith (18%). Unless we see a big uptick in usage, Metcalf will be a boom-or-bust WR3 all season long. The Vikings have done a great job at limiting the Bears, Falcons, and Bengals receivers. Minnesota is giving up just 65 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (second-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Rodgers – After his 4-TD performance in Week 1, Rodgers has finished as the QB28 and QB21 in weekly scoring. The Vikings allow a league-low 8.5 passing fantasy points per game. DC Brian Flores is going to light up Rodgers with a ton of blitzes – no defense is sending extra rushers more often than the Vikings (46%). He’s only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Carson Wentz – Only in play in SuperFlex/2QB leagues.
Jonnu Smith
Calvin Austin – If you’re desperate in a deep league, Austin is on the board as a hail mary WR4/FLEX. He leads the Steelers by a slim margin in targets over Metcalf (6 to 5) and first reads (27% to 23%) when Rodgers is blitzed.
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills
Must Start
Josh Allen
James Cook – By expected fantasy points, Cook’s role is worth 16.7 FPG (RB10). This is a +33% year-over-year increase. Cook’s role was worth just 12.6 XFP/G last season. Josh Allen has the lead in carries (7 to 5) inside the inside-the-10, but it really doesn’t matter because the Bills are in the red zone so often. Buffalo has a 31.8 point implied team total, which is 4.5 points higher than the next closest team (Green Bay at 27.3 implied points).
Start ‘Em
Chris Olave – No receiver turns double-digit targets into 55 yards of offense like Olave. In all seriousness, Olave’s volume will keep him in the WR2/3 conversation all year long. The Saints are using Olave on way more quick hitters this season, which is a huge boost to his floor in fantasy. His 8.8-yard average depth of target is significantly lower than 2024 (aDOT: 11.1 yards) and 2023 (aDOT: 13.4 yards).
Juwan Johnson – Only Jake Ferguson (32) has seen more targets among TEs than Johnson (28). Only Trey McBride (33%) has earned a higher share of first read targets than Johnson (29%). Just keep riding the volume.
Dalton Kincaid – While he’s still not a full-time player (57% route share), I don’t think I’ve seen the forest through the trees with Kincaid this season. When he’s on the field, he’s been targeted at an extremely high rate. Kincaid is earning a target on 25% of his routes (TE4), and he’s been highly efficient on these looks (2.32 yards per route run – TE3). For now, he projects as a lower-end TE1.
FLEX Plays
Alvin Kamara – You’re playing Kamara as a volume-based RB2/FLEX, no matter what. He projects slightly worse than usual with the Saints installed as massive +16 underdogs vs. Bills. This is a good matchup. The Bills got Derrick Henry’d in Week 1 (18/169/2 rushing) and just gave up 4.8 YPC to Dolphins RBs last week. Bills top DT Ed Oliver (ankle) has missed Weeks 2-3.
Keon Coleman – It’s been slow going for Coleman after his blowup up Week 1, but I’m willing to go back to him as an upside WR3 in this matchup. New Orleans allows 2.64 yards per route run (fifth-most) and 24.9 FPG (third-most) to opposing outside wide receivers. Coleman (18) leads the Bills in targets by a slim margin over Kincaid (16), Josh Palmer (13), and Khalil Shakir (13).
Sit ‘Em
Rashid Shaheed – Buffalo predominantly plays zone coverage (76%), and Shaheed is a distant third on the Saints in targets per route run (0.15) vs. zones. By comparison, Olave (0.29 TPRR) and Johnson (0.27 TPRR) are the clear-cut top options.
Khalil Shakir – He’s earned just two and four targets in his last two games after Josh Allen needed to drop back 47 times in Week 1. The Saints have been pretty good vs. slot receivers, allowing the 10th-fewest scheduled adjusted FPG.
Josh Palmer
Spencer Rattler – Has quietly been solid for 2QB/SuperFlex leagues with QB23, QB10, and QB21 scoring weeks. It’s all volume-based, though. Rattler is third in passing dropbacks per game, trailing only Joe Flacco and Dak Prescott.
Ray Davis
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Must Start
Nico Collins – This is why you don’t panic with alpha WR1. After a slow Week 1, Collins has turned his 20 targets into 11/156/2 receiving vs. Buccaneers and Jaguars. The Titans have allowed the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside wide receivers. Perimeter receivers Courtland Sutton (6/61/1 receiving), Davante Adams (6/106/1), and Michael Pittman (6/73/1) have all excelled vs. Tennessee.
FLEX Plays
Tony Pollard – Through three games, Pollard leads all RBs in snaps (90%). The problem is that the Titans are 29th in scoring drives (30.4%) and Pollard is minimally involved in the passing game (6% target share). The Titans offensive line has improved this season, but not by a significant margin. They’re 20th by adjusted yards before contact per carry.
Sit ‘Em
Christian Kirk – I’d stash Kirk on your bench and see if the Texans passing game can take a step forward as the season goes on. Kirk ran a route on 67% of Houston’s pass plays and was the secondary target (21% of first reads) to Collins (35% FR) in Week 3.
Calvin Ridley – Yeah, I’m out. Ridley has turned his 20 targets into a pathetic 8/111 receiving this season. 70% of Ridley’s targets have been charted as catchable (WR64), which is only a slight improvement compared to last year (68%). Texans top CB Derek Stingley (oblique) is questionable to play.
Nick Chubb and Woody Marks – Houston is a backfield committee. The rookie Woody Marks (12% > 28% > 49%) continues to trend up in snap rate. Chubb and Marks split carries (9 to 6 – in favor of Chubb) last week. This is a premier matchup against a Tennessee front-seven that’s giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (134.3) without run-stuffing DT T’Vondre Sweat (IR). Joe Mixon is eligible to return from the NFI list in Week 5.
C.J. Stroud – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in just three of his last 19 games.
Cameron Ward – Play the Texans D/ST.
Dalton Schultz
Chig Okonkwo
Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel
Stash ‘Em
Elic Ayomanor – The rookie Ayomanor (1.35 YPRR | 0.10 1D/RR) has been far more efficient than Ridley (1.12 YPRR | 0.05 1D/RR) so far.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
Must Start
Jahmyr Gibbs – Has finished as a top-24 scoring RB in PPR in 20 straight games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Leads the Lions in targets (24) and first reads (34% share) by a significant margin over LaPorta (17 targets | 16% FR) and Williams (12 TGT | 12% FR).
Start ‘Em
Quinshon Judkins – Oh, baby. Judkins is looking like a potential home run value pick after he slid into the 9th-11th round of drafts in August. It only took him two weeks to take over this backfield. He took 18-of-19 handoffs and ran more routes (32% share) than Jerome Ford (29%) in Week 3. Cleveland is a massive road underdog, and Detroit is playing good run defense (3.9 YPC allowed), but you’re playing Judkins as a volume-based RB2/FLEX and letting the chips fall where they may.
Sam LaPorta – Tight end is a dumpster fire again this season, so you’re rolling out LaPorta, no matter what. However, this is a really tough matchup, at least on paper. Cleveland has allowed just 83 yards on 19 targets to Bengals, Ravens, and Packers TEs.
Jared Goff – Just blindly jam Goff into lineups when the Lions are at home and the favorites. Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.2 fantasy points per game (QB7) as a home favorite. Detroit is favored to win by 9.5 points. The Browns owned Burrow in Week 1 but have allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt to Lamar Jackson (Week 2) and 7.3 YPA to Jordan Love (Week 3) since then.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – Coming off a career-high 151 rushing yards per game, Montgomery will come back down to earth a bit here. Cleveland is the league’s best run defense right now, allowing just 2.2 YPC. As always, he’s on the board as a RB2/FLEX.
Jerry Jeudy – Has been a massive disappointment to open this season, turning his 21 targets into just 10/134 receiving. Just 67% of his targets have been catchable. I’m willing to give Jeudy one more week as a WR3/FLEX option – simply because the volume and the matchup is good. Detroit is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
Jameson Williams – Outside of two deep bombs in Week 2 after Bears top CB Jaylon Johnson left injured, it has been a very slow start for Williams. His role just isn’t very good (WR78 by expected fantasy points per game). Detroit’s team outlook is so good, but it’s hard to trust him beyond boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX status.
Sit ‘Em
David Njoku and Harold Fannin – This Browns TE duo is cannibalizing each other for fantasy football. Fannin (18 targets) and Njoku (17) are extremely close in targets and yards (Fannin – 136 | Njoku – 117). Njoku is playing a full-time role while Fannin is part-time, ranking TE29 by route share. By FPG, Fannin is TE14. Njoku is TE22.
Cedric Tillman – His route share has declined in three straight games (92% > 84% > 71%) while the rookie Isaiah Bond is playing more (23% > 43% > 55%).
Joe Flacco
Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford
Isaac TeSlaa
Isaiah Bond
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Start ‘Em
Jayden Daniels – After missing Week 3, Daniels returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. Even if his mobility is a bit more limited, you’re playing Daniels. Atlanta is playing good pass defense, largely led by their improved pass rush (43% pressure rate forced – ninth-best). The Falcons have allowed just 9.3 passing fantasy points per game (second-fewest) in Weeks 1-3.
Drake London – I remain lower on his outlook than consensus because his ceiling has been “meh” for his entire career. London has finished as a top-12 scoring WR on a weekly basis in just four of his last 34 games (12%). In their 18 games together, London has 98/1188/7 receiving (on 152 targets) while Darnell Mooney has 70/1056/5 receiving (on 121 targets). London is averaging 11.7 Half-PPR FPG (WR26) while Mooney is putting up 9.5 FPG (WR45).
Deebo Samuel – In two games with Daniels under center, Samuel leads the Commanders in targets (18) over McLaurin (13) and Ertz (12). If Terry McLaurin is unable to play, the passing game will condense around Deebo and Ertz. Samuel is running 83% of his routes lined up in the slot, which will give him free releases off of the line of scrimmage and a quick avenue to short area targets all year.
Zach Ertz – Over the last two combined seasons, Ertz is TE10 in PPR points per game (10.7). This is one-tenth better than Sam LaPorta (10.6). Only Mark Andrews (13) has scored more TDs than Ertz (9 – tied with three other TEs).
FLEX Plays
Darnell Mooney – By catchable throw rate (70.7%), Michael Penix ranks QB30. Not great. Unless their QB play improves, London and Mooney will have to rely on volume as WR3s. Mooney led the Falcons in first read targets (36%) over London (24%), McCloud (16%), and Pitts (12%) in Week 3. This is a good matchup. Washington has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – Nursing a quad injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Chris Rodriguez, and Jeremy McNichols – In their first game without Austin Ekeler (IR), the Commanders went with a gross three-way committee. I really hope that you’re not planning on relying on this backfield for consistent production. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has a knee injury, and he didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
Kyle Pitts – As expected, Pitts fell to a distant fourth in first read targets in Week 3.
Michael Penix
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley – He’s off to a slower start, and this is a really tough matchup. Tampa Bay has played terrific run defense to open the season, allowing just 2.8 YPC (third-fewest). The huge games are coming, though. Barkley ranks RB2 in snaps (87%), RB5 in target share (16%), and RB5 in expected fantasy points.
Bucky Irving – Getting a full-blown bell cow workload with 77%, 74%, and 78% of the snaps. Most importantly, Irving is playing way more in the pass game this year. He ranks RB7 in route share (57%), up from 33% in his rookie season.
Start ‘Em
Emeka Egbuka – After running a route on 89% and 87% of the team’s pass plays in Weeks 1-2, Egbuka was a bit limited by his hip injury in Week 3 (67% RR/DB). The good news is that he’s fully off of the injury report as we enter Week 4. He’ll be relied on heavily with Mike Evans (hamstring) sidelined for multiple weeks.
A.J. Brown – Got it going with a classic 6/109/1 hammer last week. When the Eagles are actually forced to throw the ball, Brown and Smith will be just fine. With Tampa Bay playing excellent run defense, Philadelphia may be forced to the air a bit more than usual here.
Baker Mayfield – It sucks that Mike Evans (hamstring) is out, but the Buccaneers are getting T Tristian Wirfs and Chris Godwin back just in time. The Eagles are allowing the seventh-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback and seventh-fewest passing yards per game. The big ceiling hasn’t been there so far. Mayfield has opened this season with QB11, QB16, and QB9 scoring weeks. He projects as a lower-end QB1.
Dallas Goedert – One of a few TEs who plays nearly every single snap, Goedert (87%) trails only Trey McBride (90%) among TEs in route share this season. Goedert might not have a high ceiling, but he’s always on the board as a lower end TE1. He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in eight out of his last 10 full games.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith – In their two games together this season, Smith (12) leads the Eagles in targets by a slim margin over Brown (11), Barkley (10), and Goedert (9). Smith is running more routes from the slot (63%), which gives him a nice matchup this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most schedule adjusted fantasy points to opposing slot wideouts.
Sit ‘Em
Chris Godwin – Will likely be a bit limited in his first game of the season.
Cade Otton
Sterling Shepard
Rachaad White
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots
Start ‘Em
Drake Maye – Has finished as a top-12 weekly scorer in 7-of-13 career games (54%). For perspective, this is a higher rate than Patrick Mahomes (7-of-19 | 37%) since the start of 2024. The Patriots haven’t been a good running team yet, and they’re entrusting Maye with a fairly pass-heavy attack. They have a nice +6.9% pass rate over expectation (sixth-highest).
Tetairoa McMillan – Ranks WR13 in targets per game, WR14 in yards per game, and WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His usage is borderline WR1-worthy, but QB play will be a problem all season long. Bryce Young’s career passing yards per attempt is just 5.7, which is terribly bad. The good news? Young’s chemistry with McMillan has been pretty good – 80% of McMillan’s targets have been charted as catchable. This is a standout matchup against a Patriots secondary that’s giving up the fourth-most yards per game (134.7) to opposing outside wide receivers. Keep an eye on the injury report: McMillan didn’t practice on Wednesday (calf).
Chuba Hubbard – While it was frustrating that Hubbard was held to just 76 scoreless scrimmage yards in their Week 3 blowout vs. Falcons, it’s important to keep his usage in mind. Hubbard still ranks RB13 in snap rate and RB9 by expected fantasy points. What’s most concerning to me is that the Panthers just lost their best offensive linemen, G Robert Hunt (torn biceps) and their C Austin Corbett (knee). The Patriots have been one of the best run defenses in the league, which is a staple of HC Mike Vrabel’s philosophy. New England allows just 2.7 YPC (second-fewest). Hubbard is a low end RB2 for Week 4 lineup decisions.
Hunter Henry – Leads the Patriots in targets (21) and first reads (23%) while they run a receiver rotation with Boutte, Diggs, Douglas, and Hollins. Last week, Henry ran a season-high 77% route share. He’ll be a low-end TE1 all season long with this type of usage. Carolina is very predictable, coverage-wise. They run the second-most Cover-3 zone (45%). Henry leads the Patriots in targets (9), first reads (31% share), receptions (6), and yards (88) on his 42 routes vs. Cover-3 this season.
FLEX Plays
TreVeyon Henderson – After both of his teammates fumbled last week, Henderson set a season-high in snaps (48%). He led this backfield in carries (11) over Stevenson (7) and Gibson (4). This will likely be a timeshare all season long, but Henderson has a chance to make his case as the “1A” in this premier matchup. Carolina is allowing 5.1 YPC (third-most).
Sit ‘Em
Rhamondre Stevenson
Kayshon Boutte
Stefon Diggs – Has yet to come close to playing a full-time role. Diggs’ route share in Weeks 1-3: 62% > 47% > 55%.
Bryce Young
Rico Dowdle
Demario Douglas
Xavier Legette – Questionable to play (hamstring).
Stash ‘Em
Jalen Coker – Will be eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 5. Carolina is desperate for a secondary target. Xavier Legette and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (ankle) are both injured.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Has opened up this season with QB5, QB14, and QB12 scoring weeks. The Chargers are second in pass rate over expectation at +8.8%, trailing only the Chiefs. Herbert currently leads all passers in yards per game (286.7). He’s getting close to Must Start territory every week.
Omarion Hampton – The veteran Najee Harris tore his Achilles last week, which means that the Chargers now don’t have anyone to really spell the rookie Hampton. We’ll see if they make a signing. For now, Hampton is locked in as a low-end RB1. New York is getting their clocks cleaned to the tune of 6.7 YPC and a 68% success rate against gap blocking concepts this season. Los Angeles is using Hampton off of gap concepts on 57% of his runs.
Malik Nabers – Yeah, it’s a rookie making his first start. There will be bumps in the early-season road. Nabers’ target earning ability is prodigious, though. He ranks WR4 in first-read target share (42%), trailing only Smith-Njigba (50%), Wilson (47%), and Nacua (44%).
Cam Skattebo – With second-year RB Tyrone Tracy (shoulder) set to miss a few weeks, the rookie Skattebo is set up for bell cow usage. Skattebo handled 78% of the snaps after Tracy left the game last week. The Giants are big home underdogs (+6.5), but that matters little for Skattebo’s outlook. He’ll get plenty of dump-off targets.
Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston – I keep bumping down McConkey in our rest of season rankings and it has nothing to do with him. McConkey is still a stud. It has everything to do with Johnston’s breakout and the fact that Allen is still a baller. In their three games together, Allen leads Los Angeles in targets (27) with Johnston (23) and McConkey (21) closely behind. Johnston’s breakout is very real, especially after he blew past Broncos stud CB Pat Surtain a few times last week. I’m treating all of the Chargers WRs as excellent WR2 plays every week until further notice. The Giants are super burnable in the secondary, allowing 42.1 Half-PPR FPG to opposing receivers (second-most).
Sit ‘Em
Wan’Dale Robinson
Darius Slayton
Theo Johnson
Stash ‘Em
Jaxson Dart – If only Russell Wilson could face Dallas every week. The Giants made the necessary decision to turn to Dart after their offense was non-functional in Week 1 vs. Commanders and Week 3 vs. Chiefs. Dart has some sneaky rushing upside for our game – he averaged at least 30 yards per game on the ground in each of his last three seasons at Ole Miss. I can squint and see some Drake Maye-lite, low-end QB1 upside here for the back half of this season.
Oronde Gadsden – Worth stashing in TE premium leagues. Veteran TE Will Dissly (knee) is hurt, and Tyler Conklin stinks. The rookie Gadsden only ran a route on 28% of the Chargers dropbacks last week, but earned 7 targets (5/46 receiving).
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – Only two wide receivers have more targets (32) than CMC through three games. They’re Puka Nacua (35) and Chris Olave (35).
Ricky Pearsall – Over his last five regular-season games dating back to last year, Pearsall has piled up 30/491/2 receiving (on 42 targets). That’s worth 15.2 Half-PPR FPG. With Jauan Jennings (ankle) still beat up, Pearsall is the only show in town. He popped up on the injury report on Wednesday with a knee issue.
Start ‘Em
Brock Purdy – It seems like Purdy is trending up to play in Week 4 after missing the last two games with a turf toe injury. I remain higher than the consensus on Purdy. Over the last three combined seasons, Purdy ranks QB7 in FPG (18.1), QB5 in TD% (5.7), and QB2 in yards per game (263.2). He could be awesome in the back half of this season if the 49ers can ever get Kittle, Aiyuk, Pearsall, Jennings, and CMC all on the field together. Given their luck, that’s a big if.
Travis Etienne – For now, it’s still clearly his job. Etienne widely outsnapped the rookie Bhayshul Tuten again Week 3, this time by a 55% to 18% margin. Etienne has at least 16 touches in three straight games. Keep playing him as a RB2.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – Didn’t play in Week 3, and never seemed very close, either. He didn’t practice all week. Jennings didn’t practice again on Wednesday with this ankle injury.
Brian Thomas – Has turned his 24 targets into just 7 catches for 115 yards. BTJ has three drops. The more pressing problem is his quarterback’s play. Just 67% of his targets have been charted as catchable, which is a significant drop off from last season (81%).
Stream ‘Em
Brenton Strange – I mean no disrespect, but it’s not a good thing for the Jaguars passing offense that Strange is currently the leading receiver (13/137). He’s only in play for TE premium scoring formats or as a desperation streamer in deep leagues. The 49ers allowed 5/49/1 to Juwan Johnson in Week 2 and gave up 5/43/1 to Trey McBride last week.
Sit ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – Through three games, Lawrence is averaging a career-low in YPA and passer rating. By adjusted net yards per attempt, Lawrence is fourth-worst (5.4 yards) on throws 10 or more yards downfield. Bryce Young and Cam Ward (5.7) are both better. The good news is that his matchup is significantly improved with EDGE Nick Bosa (ACL) out. The bad news is that Lawrence has only finished as a top-12 scoring QB in three out of his last 13 starts (23%).
Travis Hunter – After he was involved on 76% of the pass plays in Week 1, Hunter’s role has shifted more towards defense in Weeks 2-3. He’s run a route on 57% and 58% of the Jaguars pass plays in each of the last two games. Until he gets more involved, you have no choice but to bench him.
Parker Washington – Will play more this week. Dyami Brown (shoulder) is injured.
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (4:05p)
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor
Puka Nacua – Over his last 12 games that weren’t cut short by injury/ejection, Nacua has racked up 103/1277/3 receiving and 14/98/2 rushing (18.3 Half-PPR FPG | WR2).
Davante Adams – While he’s clearly the #2 target, it’s still an insanely valuable role. Adams ranks WR6 in targets per game (9.3) and WR3 in expected fantasy points. I’d try to trade for him.
Start ‘Em
Kyren Williams – Yes, second-year RB Blake Corum is mixing in more. However, let’s not lose sight of the fact that Kyren has still played on 70% or more of the Rams' snaps and received at least 19 touches in three straight games. This is essentially the Chuba Hubbard role, but on a much better offense.
Daniel Jones – Has opened up his reclamation campaign with QB2, QB9, and QB11 scoring weeks. This is another tougher matchup for Jones – the Rams front seven can wreak havoc – but this high-scoring game environment (49.5 over/under) sets up Jones well to keep rolling as a strong start.
Michael Pittman – We went back in on Pittman last week, and that paid off well (6/70/1 receiving). He has a standout matchup against these Rams CBs that just got cleaned out by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith last week. Pittman has 45lbs on both of the Rams perimeter CBs Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant (180lbs).
Tyler Warren – Through three games, Warren leads the Colts in targets (20) by a slim margin over Pittman (19) and Josh Downs (14). Pittman and Warren each of a 24% share of the first reads apiece. Warren quietly leads all TEs in yards per game (64.3). He’s a set-and-forget TE1.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Start ‘Em in SuperFlex/2QB formats.
Josh Downs
Adonai Mitchell – Will get a start. Alec Pierce is in the concussion protocol.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum – One of the best handcuff stashes in fantasy football.
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p)
Must Start
Rome Odunze – Ranks WR6 by targets per game (9.0) as the clear focal point of the Bears passing attack. Odunze has doubled up DJ Moore in first-read target share (32% to 16%) this season.
Start ‘Em
Brock Bowers – He’s not moving like he’s 100% healthy after suffering a Week 1 knee injury, but you really have no other choice but to play him. He’s off the injury report. Chicago just got spammed on underneath targets by Jake Ferguson for 13/82 receiving, and the Lions TEs combined for 6/54/1 receiving back in Week 2.
Caleb Williams – It’s certainly not pretty at times, but Williams has finished as fantasy’s QB9, QB19, and QB2 in weekly scoring so far. This isn’t a slam dunk matchup like last week, but it’s still pretty good! The Raiders allow the seventh-most passing yards per attempt (7.8).
Jakobi Meyers – One of the most underrated players in football. Meyers has quietly racked up 104/1255/4 receiving over his last 18 games. That’s worth 14.1 PPR FPG (~WR25). Meyers leads the Raiders in first-read targets (28%) over Tucker (25%) and Bowers (22%).
Ashton Jeanty – This is clearly a spot for Jeanty to get going as a small home favorite (-1.5). Chicago is allowing a whopping 5.4 YPC (second-most). The problem is that the Raiders have been unable to spring Jeanty through any big holes. Jeanty is averaging 1.1 yards before contact (ninth-fewest).
FLEX Plays
D’Andre Swift – His snaps have been cut down to 56% and 61% in Weeks 2-3 after he opened up as a bell cow in Week 1 with a 79% snap rate. This is a decent matchup. Las Vegas allows 4.5 YPC (ninth-most). Swift has at least 15 touches in 17 of his last 20 games. He remains a volume-based RB2/FLEX.
DJ Moore – The Raiders are very predictable defensively, deploying Cover-3 zones on a league-high 55% of opponents' dropbacks. Moore is actually fifth on the Bears in targets vs. Cover-3, turning those looks into 3/17 receiving. By comparison, Odunze leads Chicago in targets (8) for 5/73/1 receiving vs. Cover-3. Moore is a WR3.
Tre Tucker – I typically fade receivers after random spiked weeks, but there is some merit here because of how bad the Bears are in the secondary. Chicago is allowing 40.0 Half-PPR FPG to opposing receivers (fourth-most).
Stream ‘Em
Geno Smith – The Bears are allowing 0.59 passing fantasy points per dropback, which is tied with the Cowboys for the league-high. Geno is the best QB streaming play on the slate.
Sit ‘Em
Colston Loveland – Dealing with a hip injury.
Cole Kmet – If Colston Loveland (hip) can’t go, then Kmet will be in play as a desperation streamer. The Raiders have allowed a clean 9/121 receiving on 13 targets (9.3 yards per target) to tight ends.
Dont’e Thornton
Kyle Monangai
Stash ‘Em
Luther Burden
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (4:25p)
Must Start
Lamar Jackson
Start ‘Em
Derrick Henry – The Big Dog has uncharacteristically lost 3 fumbles to start the season, two of which were very costly in the opponents’ territory vs. Bills and Lions. Unfortunately, this is a tough spot. The Chiefs are playing their usual stingy run defense (3.5 YPC allowed). Kansas City hasn’t given up an explosive run of 15+ yards yet this season. Henry is more of a boom-or-bust RB1.
Zay Flowers – After he earned 9 and 11 targets in Weeks 1-2, I can’t explain why the Ravens went away from him last week. Flowers still leads the Ravens in first-read targets (33% share) by a mile over Andrews (19%) and Bateman (17%). Unfortunately, this is not an easy bounceback spot with Chiefs top CB Trent McDuffie playing so well. Kansas City is allowing the sixth-fewest Half-PPR FPG to opposing receivers, tied with Denver.
Patrick Mahomes – This slow start is clearly not his fault. The Chiefs are a one-dimensional offense. They don’t try to run the ball and Mahomes is forced to run this passing attack without his top two wideouts and his aging Hall-of-Fame bound TE. Right now, Mahomes is averaging career-lows in TD% (2.9) and YPA (6.4). Kansas City is first in pass rate over expectation (+9.2%), which is really the only thing going for Mahomes right now. He’ll have to throw a ton to keep up with Lamar and the Ravens.
Travis Kelce – I’d sell for anything that you can at this point. Kelce is averaging a career-low 3.3 receptions and 44.7 yards per game… and that’s without Worthy and Rice. Yikes. Tight end is such a nightmare this season, Kelce still projects like a lower-end TE1. Baltimore has not been good against tight ends this season, allowing 20/218/1 receiving on 21 targets.
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – Off the injury report, and he will return to face the Ravens. The Chiefs are desperate for playmaking ability, so I expect Worthy to see at least 5-6 targets, even if he’s somewhat limited with his role after suffering a torn labrum. In the past, Dalvin Cook and George Kittle have both successfully played through shoulder injuries with a supportive harness. Tee Higgins had a similar injury in 2021 and put off surgery until the offseason.
Sit ‘Em
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – In their 17 full games together (including playoffs), Likely (65) and Andrews (70) were very close in targets. I wouldn’t be surprised if Likely were to see more targets than Andrews this season once he returns from injury.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt – Pacheco (55%) and Hunt (41%) have split snaps and carries (25 to 23 – in favor of Pacheco). The veteran Hunt remains the short-yardage and goal-line RB. He’s played on 73% of the Chiefs snaps inside-the-10.
Rashod Bateman
Tyquan Thornton
Marquise Brown – His route share has fallen in three straight games (94% > 79% > 73%) and now Worthy is back. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thornton plays ahead of Brown this week, and moving forward.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (8:20p)
Must Start
Josh Jacobs
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Dallas is getting destroyed so badly on defense, allowing a league-high 300 yards and 21 passing fantasy points on a per-game basis. If the Cowboys can keep this game close, Love could have a huge day.
George Pickens – Let’s hope that he got his crash out of his system last week after he was visibly frustrated on the sidelines after causing an INT that cemented the Bears win. Pickens will be needed in top form with CeeDee Lamb set to miss multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain.
Jake Ferguson – Has 65 receptions for 517 yards but zero TDs in his last 10 games with Dak. If Green Bay has one “weakness,” it’s against TEs. The Packers gave up 6/79 to Sam LaPorta, 6/64/1 to Zach Ertz, and 8/65 to Browns TEs.
Tucker Kraft – Luckily, it seems like last week’s knee injury was just a scare. You’re dialing up Kraft as a high upside TE1.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams – I was dead wrong about Williams this season, and he looks like one of the best RB2 values. Williams ranks RB12 in snaps (70%) and RB11 in expected fantasy points. The role is great. Unfortunately, the Cowboys offense is going to take a big step back with Lamb out. Dallas is also down two interior offensive linemen with C Cooper Beebe (IR) and G Tyler Booker (ankle) out. Green Bay has played terrific run defense this season, shutting down RBs for 3.3 YPC (sixth-fewest).
Matthew Golden – His route share (44% > 65% > 71%) and share of passing air yards (4% > 21% > 83%) has steadily increased in his first three games. This is the first time that I’ve written him up as in play for lineup decisions, and it’s for good reason. Dallas is getting destroyed by the deep ball. The Cowboys have allowed 444 yards on passes over 20+ yards in the air. The next worst defense is the Patriots (230 yards). Dallas plays zero man coverage because they can’t trust their CBs on islands. Golden leads the Packers in targets (6) and first reads (23%) vs. zones. Golden is a high upside WR3.
Romeo Doubs – If you’re in desperate need of a WR this week, Doubs is also in play. He’s led the Packers WRs in routes in three straight games. Dallas is permitting a league-high 34.7 Half-PPR FPG to opposing outside wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Dak Prescott – This is just a brutal spot without Lamb and two starting offensive linemen. The Packers are allowing the second-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.25).
Dontayvion Wicks
KaVontae Turpin
Jalen Tolbert
Miles Sanders
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (MNF Game 1 | 7:15p)
Must Start
De’Von Achane – The Dolphins are 0-3 and have little hope of winning more than 6-7 games this season, but it won’t matter for Achane. This is the dream usage for him. Achane has run a route on 73% (RB3) of the Dolphins pass plays. As expected, this is another uptick in usage. Only Bijan Robinson (76% RR/DB) and Christian McCaffrey (72% RR/DB) are more involved in their team’s passing games. Over his last 14 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Achane has 173/768/5 rushing and 85/671/8 receiving (on 96 targets). That’s worth 18.9 Half-PPR FPG (RB4).
Garrett Wilson – Ranks WR1 by route share and WR3 by target share. The Dolphins don’t have a CB that can dream of running with Wilson.
Start ‘Em
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – In their last 12 games together with Tua, the Dolphins WRs have produced similarly. Hill has 66/827/5 receiving (on 71 targets) – 12.1 Half-PPR FPG. Meanwhile, Waddle has 55/721/6 receiving (on 68 targets) – 11.3 FPG. Both are looking like WR2 plays all season long. This looks like a pretty good spot for Waddle to be more involved than usual. According to our WR vs. CB Matchup Report, Jets top CB Sauce Gardner will travel with Hill on MNF.
Justin Fields – If he’s cleared through concussion protocol, I view Fields as a high upside start this week. Miami is the third-worst defense in football, only behind Dallas and Chicago. The Dolphins allow 0.55 passing fantasy points per dropback – third-most, trailing only the Cowboys and Bears (0.59). They’ve also allowed 82 rushing yards to QBs (eighth-most).
FLEX Plays
Breece Hall
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa
Braelon Allen
Malik Washington
Mason Taylor
Darren Waller
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon – One of the best handcuffs in fantasy football. He would have a massive role if Achane were to miss time.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (MNF Game 2 | 8:15p)
Start ‘Em
Ja’Marr Chase
J.K. Dobbins – If he didn’t rip up his knee and his Achilles, I think Dobbins’ career would have looked a lot differently. So different, in fact, that he’d probably be valued as a top-15 dynasty RB right now. Dobbins is only 26 years old. He looks absolutely incredible playing behind the Broncos strong offensive line. I’m a RJ Harvey bag holder, and Dobbins’ play is going to make us wait a long time for Harvey to get really involved. Dobbins is coming off a season-high 71% of the snaps. Dobbins ranks RB12 in missed tackles forced per carry (0.22) while Denver opens up a league-high 2.9 yards before contact per carry.
Courtland Sutton – Over his last 14 games (including playoffs), Sutton has 73/989/8 receiving (on 109 targets). That’s worth 13.1 Half-PPR FPG (WR17). The Bengals have allowed opposing outside wide receivers to score 21.4 FPG (ninth-most).
Bo Nix – It has been a rough start for Nix. He’s struggling with his accuracy, and left multiple huge plays on the field last week vs. the Chargers. Russell Wilson (68.2%) is the only QB with a worse catchable throw rate than Nix (68.4%) right now. Nix is still scrambling and adding 23.7 rushing yards per game, which isn’t too far behind his rookie season (25.3). The good news is that this is an awesome get-right spot. The Bengals are allowing 16.8 passing fantasy points per game (seventh-most).
FLEX Plays
Tee Higgins – Browning, Chase, and Higgins have only played in four full games together. In these outings, Chase turned his 26 targets into 23/292/1 receiving (11.7 Half-PPR FPG). Higgins has just 10/184/2 receiving on 17 targets (8.9 FPG). The good news? Well, the Bengals can’t run the ball. They’re going to have to rely on their top two targets to move the ball. HC Zac Taylor stubbornly called the third-most run-heavy offense (-8.3% pass rate under expectation) last week. I’ll bet that won’t continue.
Drink Bleach
Chase Brown – The Bengals are opening up 0.3, yes 0.3!, yards before contact per carry. This is so hilariously bad, and it’s borderline insane that they leaned so heavily towards the run last week with a -8% pass rate under expectation. We were hoping that Brown could come through as a volume-based RB2 with no Burrow, and that is fading quickly. The problem is that Brown is adding little in the passing game, too. He has 8/43 receiving on 11 targets. At this point, he’s a TD-or-bust FLEX. The Bengals are implied to score 18.3 points (fourth-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
R.J. Harvey
Jake Browning
Troy Franklin – The good news? Franklin’s full-time usage actually stuck. He ran a route on 88% of the Broncos pass plays last week. The bad news? Yeah, he only earned four targets (2/8 receiving). Hold onto Franklin on your bench.
Marvin Mims
Evan Engram
