Barfield's Best Bets: Week 8

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Barfield's Best Bets: Week 8

GAME PICKS

Titans at Colts

Bet – Titans +2.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Why? – Titans are 5-1 ATS and straight-up after their Week 1 debacle vs. Cardinals and all five of their margins of victory have been by 3 or more points. The Colts three wins have come against the 1-6 Dolphins, 1-6 Texans, and 2-4 49ers.

Cowboys at Vikings

Bet – Under 54 points (-110, WynnBet) Why? – Grabbed this on Friday after the Dak news came out. The total is down to 52 in most spots and will likely drop to 47-48 if/when Dak is ruled out.

PLAYER PROPS

Kyler Murray

Bet – Under 28.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Was on Murray rushing unders this last week and am getting back on here. Kyler has gone over 21 yards rushing just twice this entire season and has 1, 6, and 10 yards over his last three games. Murray just isn’t scrambling as often as last year by design and because he’s nursing a minor shoulder injury. Over the last three weeks, Kyler has a combined 2 scrambles for 12 yards. That’s it.

Robert Tonyan

Bet – Over 38.5 yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Packers WR room is apocalyptic. Coming off season-highs in catches (4) and yards (63), Rodgers will have no other option but to rely on Tonyan more heavily.

Emmanuel Sanders

Bet – Over 54.5 yards (-115, DK)

Why? – No team is giving up more YPG (104.9) to outside wide receivers, which is where Sanders aligns 80% of the time. He’s averaging 68.8 YPG and we have him projected for 67 yards.

Diontae Johnson

Bet – Over 66.5 receiving yards (-115. PointsBet)

Why? – Averaging 10 targets and 75 yards per game, Browns have given up at least 68 yards to eight different WRs and the only team that failed to have a WR over 68 yards against them was the Browns. We have Diontae projected for 76 yards.

Zack Moss

Bet – Anytime TD (+130, DK)

Why? – Over the Bills last four games before their bye, Moss was on the field for a whopping 16-of-19 of Buffalo’s snaps from inside-the-five while Singletary got just three snaps. Moss is unquestionably the goal-line back and Miami has already permitted 7 rushing scores to RBs (fifth-most).

Cordarrelle Patterson

Bet – Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115, WynnBet)

Why? – Before randomly only catching 2 balls for 1 yard, C-Patt was averaging 59 receiving yards per game in his previous five games. He’s getting way more burn running actual WR routes over the last two weeks (17 and 23 routes lined up at WR) compared to his previous three games (9 > 4 >11). We have Patterson projected for 45 yards.

Michael Carter

Bet – Over 21.5 receiving yards (-113, FD)

Why? – Set season-highs in snaps and routes run last week coming out of the bye. Was Mike White’s leading target (9). Bengals are giving up 7.6 receptions (second-most) and 48.4 receiving yards (10th-most) to RBs.

Jamison Crowder

Bet – Under 55.5 receiving yards (-120, FOXBet)

Why? – Averaging 39.7 YPG, Mike White starting, and we have Crowder projected for 39 yards.

Joe Mixon

Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-110, FOXBet)

Why? – Jets are giving up the sixth-most YPG on the ground (114.3), we have Mixon projected for 88 yards.

Derrick Henry

Bet – Over 13.5 receiving yards (-125, WynnBet)

Why? – Darrynton Evans (IR) and Khari Blasingame are both out, leaving only Jeremy McNichols as the only change of pace back behind Henry. Through seven games, Henry has cleared 14 receiving yards five times.

Jared Goff

Bet – Under 262.5 passing yards

Why? – Just barely hit the over last week (I had the under). Going back to it again. Has gone under 260 yards in 4-of-7 games, the Eagles are giving up just 238 YPG, and we have Goff projected for 250.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Bet – Under 44.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Has 26 or fewer yards in 5-of-7 games, got zero targets last week, and the Eagles are giving up the eighth-fewest YPG to slot WRs (where St. Brown lines up 84% of the time). We have St. Brown projected for 38 yards.

Elijah Mitchell

Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115, FOXBet)

Why? – Getting 85% of 49ers carries in his starts, which is the third-highest rate among RBs and behind only King Henry / Najee Harris. Bears have gotten ripped by Packers backs (135 rush yards) and Bucs backs (171) over the last two weeks.

Tyler Higbee

Bet – Anytime TD (+210, BetMGM)

Why? – Couldn’t resist this juice. Higbee is tied with Kupp / Woods for the team-lead in end zone targets (4) while the Texans have allowed a TE to score in four-straight-games.

A.J. Brown

Bet – Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, FOXBet)

Why? – No Julio again, Brown has 91 and 133 yards in his last two starts, and Colts have given up 125 to Hollywood Brown, 89 to Brandin Cooks, and 100 too Deebo Samuel over the last three weeks. We have AJB projected for 93 yards.

Keenan Allen

Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Even in a “down” swing relative to last year, Allen’s volume has still be very safe. He’s averaging 9.7 targets and 6.5 receptions per game and has 8+ targets in 5-of-6.

James Robinson

Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-120, FOXBet)

Why? – Jags’ are third-most run-heavy team above expectation, Seahawks are giving up the fourth-most YPG to RBs (115.7). We have Robinson projected for 90 yards.

Chris Godwin

Bet – Over 71.5 receiving yards (-113, FD)

Why? – Lattimore does an excellent job on Evans usually, AB is out again, and Godwin has gone for 111 and 110 yards in his last two games without AB.

Dalvin Cook

Bet – Over 19.5 carries (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Has over 20 carries in his three healthy starts and Dak Prescott potentially missing puts the game-script heavily in Vikings’ favor.

D’Andre Swift

Bet – Over 50.5 rush yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Grabbed this right after it was announced Jamaal Williams is out.

ROI THIS SEASON

Game Picks -21.6% (Overall: 10-12)

Player Props +19.7% (Overall: 71-47)

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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