When you’re on a heater, you don’t change things up. At the table in Vegas, you keep drinking the same beer. You stay in the same seat. You have your annoying buddy stay by your side. That’s how I’m feeling with this article of late. Just a kick ass week of projections that I know many of you followed because of the messages I received on X @DrakeFantasy.
Last week’s “Top 5”:
Browns 25 points
Patriots 19 points
Chiefs 13 points
Panthers 17 points
Seattle (MNF)
Boom.
This isn’t rocket science. Let’s not get too big a head by touting defenses against the worst quarterbacks in the league. But, you’re doing the work and adjusting weekly to maximize your point totals while other guys in your league just set it and forget it with the Vikings, whom they drafted in August (nice 1 point this week).
We’re paying attention to injuries. Of course, we chase bad quarterback situations. We immediately search for whoever is playing Tennessee (Hi, Colts!). But mainly, we use common sense. As my podcast co-host, “The Guru” (you may have heard of him if you’re on this site), often says, “we have the gift of sight.”
This is a massive week for byes, with five of the six teams being potential starting D/ST options. Needless to say, your league will hit the waiver wire for a replacement.
I’ve noticed many leagues where managers don’t feel the need to use a waiver move on a defense. This is stupid. Look at the teams we gave out last week. Your roster couldn’t use an extra 13-25 points? Don’t be lazy. If the Colts are available in your league, use a claim. Everyone else has some major warts. That’s what happens when this many teams have the week off. Light a candle, say a prayer. Let’s do this.
TEAMS ON BYE IN WEEK 8: ARI, DET, JAX, LV, LAR, SEA
Based on D/STs owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues
Drake’s Top 5 D/ST Targets for Week 8
- Indianapolis Colts (NE 49%) vs TEN
- Buffalo Bills (BUF, 39%) @ CAR
- Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 9%) vs MIA
- Los Angeles Chargers (LAC,49%) vs MIN
- Chicago Bears (CHI, 42%) @ BAL
Higher-owned Options
New England Patriots (NE, 79%) vs CLE — If you had the Patriots last week against the Titans, keep them and roll them out against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to D/STs. This game, held in Foxboro, should test Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel's ability to make throws. New England has a top-five run defense in yards allowed. Only the Packers allow fewer rushing yards per game than the Patriots. If and when Gabriel has to throw, I expect the Patriots' defense to find him for several sacks and turnovers.
Top Targets
Indianapolis Colts (IND, 49%) vs TEN — I mean, do we really need the blurb? They are playing the Titans. You know the drill. Pick up Indy, start them, reap the benefits. The Titans have allowed 11 sacks in the past two games. Add in five turnovers and the fact that their offense can’t score, and you’ve got a recipe for a delicious D/ST dreamsicle. The Colts are legit if you haven’t watched them much. They’ve mustered at least three sacks in five of seven games. Their secondary is picking off balls at a breakneck pace, with five interceptions in their last three contests. Their pass rush ranks in the top-10 in blitz percentage per dropback (19%). Listen, you don’t need the stats. This is easy. Go add Indy.
Buffalo Bills (BUF, 39%) @ CAR — Coming off their BYE, the Bills travel to Charlotte to face Andy Dalton and the Panthers. If we know anything about the “Red Rifle,” it’s that he’s a magician of the moronic. Dalton simply doesn’t play winning football at this stage of his career. If the Bills' offense can get out and push the issue and make Dalton throw in the second half, we’re in for fireworks. Now, let’s not act like the Bills have been some elite defense. They’ve lost two straight, and in those losses, allowed 338 and 443 yards. This is a bet against a bad quarterback who will be forced to throw. If “Uncle” Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard get loose, they could take the ball out of Dalton’s hands, which would make Dave Canales’ perfect hair stay jet black and not turn gray. The Bills allow 156.3 rushing yards per game on the ground. Second most in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 9%) vs MIA — The Falcons have invested a ton in their pass rush, and it’s helped, to an extent. They are still 3-3. Their pressure numbers aren’t great. They have just 32 pressures through their six games, which is bottom five in the league. Ah, but this weekend they’ll welcome Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins traveling circus. It’s been a horror show for Tagovailoa the past two weeks. He’s thrown six interceptions to just one touchdown in that span. Under the big top in Atlanta, I don’t expect the balancing act of Mike McDaniel’s job security and Tagovailoa’s illusion of being a competent quarterback to steady itself. Atlanta wrecks this clown car of an offensive line and hangs double digits on the board.
Going Deeper
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 49%) vs MIN — Carson Wentz isn’t good. When pressure gets to him, mistakes fly out of his hand like planes leaving LAX. The Vikings offense has turned the ball over twice in each of their last three games. In that span, they’ve given up 12, 7, and 10 fantasy points to D/STs. The Chargers just got wrecked by the Colts, but I’m calling for a bounce-back on Thursday night. Those games are always a mess. Minnesota gives up the 5th most points to defenses. BONUS: Add the Chargers this week and keep them for next week against the Titans.
Chicago Bears (CHI, 42%) @ BAL — It doesn’t look like we’re getting Lamar Jackson under center for the Ravens in Week 8. That means if Jackson sits, we’re treated to another week of Cooper Rush. Exciting, isn’t it? In two games without the two-time MVP, the Ravens have given up 17 and 11 points to their opponents' D/ST. That was a culmination of five sacks and four interceptions while scoring just 13 points. Oof. If Rush is the answer, we need a new question.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 2%) vs NYJ — Tyrod Taylor could start for the Jets. Is that better or worse than Justin Fields? Flip a coin. The Jets have given up 17 and 13 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks to D/STs. The Jets QBs have taken 15 sacks in two weeks. The Bengals stink, but Trey Hendrickson should get loose for some backfield gymnastics in the Jungle. Cincy is awful against the pass. They’ve allowed 1800 passing yards, second most in the league. Luckily, the Jets have yet to discover the forward pass.
Place Kickers
Higher-owned Options
Evan McPherson (Cin, 46%) — McPherson had his first multiple field goal outing of the season in Week 7 against Pittsburgh. Five of his last eight converted field goals have been from the bonus range, including two last Thursday night. This week, he is home against New York. The Jets have allowed two converted field goals in six of their seven games this season.
Top Targets
Will Reichard (Min, 6%) — All Reichard has done is convert two or more field goals in five of his six games this season. He booted five field goals in Week 7, including a 59-yarder. In fact, five of his 13 field goals made have been from the bonus range, and four of them from 50 yards or more. The Chargers are up next, and they have allowed multiple field goals in six of their seven games.
Going Deeper
Jake Moody (Chi, 3%) — Just two weeks ago, Moody was on everyone’s avoid list for place kickers. He was signed by Chicago and stepped in to replace injured PK Cairo Santos, who has a right thigh injury. Moody made four field goals in two straight outings. Three of his eight field goals with the Bears have been from the bonus range. The matchup is excellent as Baltimore has allowed three field goals in three of their six games. Still, you have to make sure Santos is out again before relying on Moody.
Tom Simons contributed the PK writeups.
