Barfield's Best Bets: Week 16

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Barfield's Best Bets: Week 16

GAME PICKS

49ers vs. Titans

Bet – 49ers -3 (-110, DraftKings)

Why? – 49ers are 6-2 ATS over their last eight games. Titans are down three offensive linemen (C Saffold, T Lewan, T Lamm) and are down to a third-stringer at left tackle against Nick Bosa.

Dolphins vs. Saints

Bet – Dolphins +3 (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – Got lucky and snagged this right after the Taysom Hill (COVID; out) news broke.

Broncos vs. Raiders

Bet – Under 42 points (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – With Drew Lock back under center, I’m thinking we’re going to see an even more conservative approach from the Broncos offense here. Denver has been trending slower and more run-heavy as of late and this week’s plan should be no different. Over the last eight weeks, the Broncos are top-8 in run rate in all game situations (close games, when trailing and when leading) and now catch a Raiders run defense that has gotten tuned up all year long.

Meanwhile, the Raiders offensive collapse has been a drastic one as they’ve been held under 17 points in six of their last 7 games. Their red-zone efficiency continues to be absolutely awful and the main reason for their scoring drought. Over the last eight weeks, Vegas has scored a TD on just 36% of their red-zone possessions – by far a league-low. Now, they have the unfortunate task of facing a stingy Broncos defense that is limiting their opponents to a TD on just 43% of RZ possessions. Only the Patriots (40%) are better.

The Broncos are 7-1 towards unders in their last eight games (H/T Brolley).

PLAYER PROPS

TNF

Ryan Tannehill

Bet – Over 214.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Tannehill with AJ Brown: 232.7 YPG / 7.0 YPA / 64.4% completion rate. Tannehill without AJB: 183.5 YPG / 4.8 YPA / 58.4% completion rate. Trailing game-script likely. We have Tannehill projected for 235 passing yards.

Anthony Firkser

Bet – Under 15.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Slipped to third in the Titans TE rotation last week behind Swaim and Pruitt. AJ Brown and Julio both back. Niners giving up the third-fewest YPG to TEs over the last eight weeks.

Saturday Games

A.J. Dillon

Bet – Over 47.5 rushing yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Over this total in five of his last 7 games. The Browns run defense has been cracked as of late – they’re giving up the sixth-most YPC (4.64) and the seventh-most YPG (112.6) on the ground over the last eight weeks. Packers are huge favorites, so we could see Dillon come in as the closer. We have Dillon projected for 56 yards.

Donovan Peoples-Jones

Bet – Over 36.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Baker is back. Trailing game-script likely. Packers giving up the second-most yards per game to WRs over the last five weeks. We have DPJ projected for 57 yards.

Nick Chubb

Bet – Under 100.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – Has 65 and 93 scrimmage yards in his last two games with no Hunt. Browns massive underdog – so they should throw more. Packers giving up the fourth-fewest scrimmage yards to RBs. We have Chubb projected for 87 total yards.

Zach Ertz

Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+110, PointsBet)

Why? – Season-high 11 targets last week. Over this total in three of his last four games. Colts are giving up the second-most receptions per game to TEs (6.3) and have given up 5 catches to Dan Arnold, 6 to Dawson Knox, 7 to Rob Gronkowski, 6 to Texans TEs, and 6 to Hunter Henry over the last five weeks. We have Ertz projected for 5.5 receptions. Grabbed this in every book I could – all at plus money.

Michael Pittman

Bet – Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Over 59 yards in 9-of-14. No Zach Pascal. Spread has moved in Cardinals favor over the last day, so Colts will have to throw more. Also a great matchup – Arizona has been shredded for 436 yards (!!) by WRs over the last two weeks (vs. Rams and Lions).

Kyler Murray

Bet – Over 25.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Think we see Kyler run more with Conner banged up.

Sunday Games

Ja’Marr Chase

Bet – Over 60.5 yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Think the Bengals bounce back big here. Ravens secondary is in shambles and they’re down another corner with Chris Westry (COVID) out. They won’t be able to double Chase because you can’t leave Higgins on an island either. We have Chase projected for 77 yards.

Albert Okwuegbunam

Bet – Over 2.5 receptions (+150, DK) & over 18.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Has 3 or more catches and 20 or more yards in 6 of his last 7 games. Raiders giving up the fifth-most receptions and third-most yards per game to TEs. Drew Lock only threw 12 passes last week and Albert O had 3/58.

Matthew Stafford

Bet – Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+155, DK)

Why? – Has thrown 3 or more TDs in 8-of-14 games. Vikings giving up the second-highest pass TD rate (6.2%). Over their last five weeks, no defense has given up more yards per game (300.8) and passing TDs (12) than Minnesota.

Zach Wilson

Bet – Under 218.5 pass yards (-115, SuperBook)

Why? – Betting unders on Wilson has been like an ATM. Back on it here. Under 219 yards in 6-of-9 full starts. Down Moore, Davis, and potentially Crowder here. We have Wilson projected for just 190 yards.

Devin Singletary

Bet – Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – Full-blown bell-cow now. Singletary’s 93% snap rate last week was a season-high and built off of his 82% snap rate in Week 14. Pats have gotten steam-rolled for 5.52 YPC over the last eight weeks (most). Also added over 0.5 rush TD on SuperBook at +225. We have Singletary projected for 60 yards.

Miles Sanders

Bet – Over 59.5 rushing yards (-113, FanDuel)

Why? – Eagles are going to truck the Giants. Sanders handled 18 carries while Howard had just 6 in the first three quarters against Washington on Tuesday. Off the injury report. Over this total in four-straight. We have Sanders projected for 70 yards.

Russell Gage

Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (+126, FanDuel)

Why? – Over his last five games, Gage is averaging 9 targets and 6.8 receptions per game and a massive 28% target share.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Bet – Over 0.5 rushing TDs (+132, SuperBook)

Why? – Has at least one inside-10 carry in three of his last four games. Nice plus juice vs. Lions.

Robby Anderson

Bet – Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Moore banged up. Trailing game-script likely. We have Anderson projected for 56 yards.

Alexander Mattison

Bet – Over 17.5 carries (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Averaging 24.3 carries per start this season.

Damien Harris

Bet – Over 60.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Will be relied on heavily with Stevenson out and Bolden banged up. Bills giving up the sixth-most rushing yards per game to RBs over the last eight weeks.

Najee Harris

Bet – Under 95.5 rush + receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – We have Harris projected for just 68 scrimmage yards. Steelers OL is no match for the Chiefs with Chris Jones back.

Russell Wilson

Bet – Under 31.5 pass attempts (-105, BetMGM)

Why? – 28 or fewer pass attempts in 3 of Seahawks 4 wins this year. Seahawks dead last in plays per game and favored by 7. We have Wilson projected for 30 attempts.

SNF

Dak Prescott

Bet – Under 280.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Under this total in five of his last 7 games. Washington giving up just 233.6 YPG over the last eight weeks. We have Prescott projected for 235.

Ezekiel Elliott

Bet – Over 0.5 Rush TD (+136, SuperBook)

Why? – Way too much juice on this.

CeeDee Lamb

Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (+100, DK)

Why? – Over 6 catches in four of his last 5 games. Washington giving up the third-most receptions per game to slot WRs (8.8). Slot WRs Godwin (7 receptions), Renfrow (9), and even Lamb (7) have all been target vacuums against Washington recently.

DeAndre Carter

Bet – Under 24.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Under 23 yards in four of his last 5 games including three-straight. Slipped to a seven-week low snap rate last week.

MNF

Ian Book

Bet – Under 18.5 completions (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Might get ugly in his first start. Saints likely to try and go run-heavy. Dolphins have allowed a 56% completion rate over the last eight weeks (third-lowest). We have Book projected for just 15 completions.

Mark Ingram

Bet – Under 42.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – Averaging just 2.0 YPC since hurting his knee in Week 12. Dolphins giving up the third-fewest rushing YPG (69.0) over the last eight weeks. We have Ingram projected for just 19 total yards.

ROI THIS SEASON

– Game Picks: -14% (18-22; 47.5% win rate)

– Player Props: +7% (221-169; 56.7% win rate)

– Total ROI: 5%

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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