While it’s true that I tend to sweep close wins under the carpet and complain about only the close losses, the fact is I’ve had probably twice as many close losses as wins this year with these props.
In Week 15, by my calculations, I lost SEVEN different bets by a total of 12 yards and 3 catches. Had TY Hilton, Chad Hansen, and Jared Cook each caught 1 more ball and had Leonard Fournette gone for 1 more rushing yard, De’Andre Swift 7 more receiving yards, Jared Cook 2 more receiving yards and Brandon Aiyuk 2 more receiving yards, my record would have been 19-1 last week.
Granted, I did have two very close wins and these bets often come out close, but the point is I’ve been considerably better with my picks the last four weeks at 66% (43-22), so I feel good about Week 16.
Last week’s record: 12-8
Season record: 122-104
To open this week, I’ll start with the props I like for Friday Night Football, and then I’ll be back on Saturday with any picks I like for the Saturday games, and finally my normal Sunday morning picks.
Kirk Cousins (Min, at NO) OVER 8.5 rushing yards on DK – This one may seem a little weird, but I absolutely love it. Kirkie has been running a little more with 3.5/24.3 rushing on average in his last four games. The Saints play a lot of man to man, which leaves them open to giving up rushing yards to QBs, which helps explain why they’re giving up 37.5 rushing yards per game the last four weeks to QBs. I think the Saints will load up to stop Dalvin Cook and dare Cousins to beat them, so I see 35+ attempts for Cousins, which will likely help his rushing total because they sure as heck aren’t going to do any designed runs for Cousins.
Adam Thielen (Min, at NO) OVER 58.5 receiving yards on DK – If I had to pick between this call and the Jefferson call, it’s really close, but I think I’d go Thielen. He is great against man to man, which is what the Saints run more than any other team in the NFL this season, and it’s been what they’ve run for years. That may explain how Thielen has averaged 7.2 receptions for 115.7 yards in four career games against New Orleans dating back to 2017. In the playoffs last year, the Saints put Janoris Jenkins on Stefon Diggs when they were man to man, which left Thielen on Marshawn Lattimore often. Thielen going into that game had just 4/52 receiving total on 10 targets in his final four games of the regular season. He was banged up and in a slump, yet he crushed Lattimore and put up 7/129 on 9 targets and caught a clutch 43-yard pass in OT inside the Saints 5 that basically won them the game. Thielen should see a lot of Lattimore again this week, and I expect the Vikings to have to throw it 35+ times, so I feel really good about Thielen’s ability to hit this number.
Justin Jefferson (Min, at NO) OVER 65.5 receiving yards on DK – This one may seem too easy, and maybe it is. In that playoff game last year, the Saints put Janoris Jenkins on Stefon Diggs, and Jenkins held Diggs to only 2/19 on 3 targets. Granted, it wasn’t all Jenkins, but I expect the Saints to play the Vikings similarly with Jenkins on Jefferson. That’s a great matchup for sure, but I’m going over again because I think the Vikings will have to throw it a lot, and Jefferson’s been too nasty to shy away from. He’s averaging 11 targets a game and 7/83.5 the last four weeks. I think this game will be all Jefferson and Thielen, essentially.
Adam Thielen (Min, at NO) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
Justin Jefferson (Min, at NO) OVER 4.5 receiving yards on DK
Saturday Props - Added 12/26
Oh, Kirkie, how could you do that to me? 0 rushing attempts against the Saints, despite 40+ dropbacks in the game and 3.5 rushing attempts for 24 yards in your last four games? Cousins had a couple of chances to hit the prop, but he just. didn’t. run.
Oh, well. I was at least 4-0 on my other props, bringing my record to a strong 47-23 the last four weeks plus this week. Due to a lack of time, I’m only listing the props I’m going in on for Saturday’s game. The analysis on these players can be found in my Hansen’s Hints column.
These are listed in order or preference for me.
- Matthew Stafford (Det, vs. TB) OVER 270.5 passing yards on DK
- Marvin Jones (Det, vs. TB) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
- TJ Hockenson (Det, vs. TB) OVER 46.5 receiving yards on DK
- D’Andre Swift (Det, vs. TB) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
- Leonard Fournette (TB, at Det) OVER 65.5 rushing yard on DK
- Jeff Wilson (SF, at Ari) OVER 1.5 receptions on DK
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF, at Ari) OVER 5.5 receptions on DK
Sunday Props - Added 12/27
Oh, what a miserable day yesterday was. I got enamored and blinded by some great Matthew Stafford throws in Week 15, so I ignored his lack of overall health and that cost me probably four losses.
I need to bounce back, and hopefully I will today. I’ve written up so much late this week in terms of my Hansen’s Hints and DFS columns, so I will list just the picks today. If you’re wondering about a pick, it’s probably covered in those two columns.
These are listed in order of my favorites:
- Baker Mayfield (Cle, at NYJ) UNDER 258.5 passing yard on William Hill
- Aaron Jones (GB, vs Ten) OVER 70.5 rushing yards on DK
- Aaron Jones (GB, vs Ten) OVER 96.5 total yards on BETMGM
- Sterling Shepard (NYG, at Bal) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK
- Jalen Reagor (Phi, at Dal) OVER 2.5 receptions on William Hill
- Austin Hooper (Cle, at NYJ) OVER 3.5 receptions on William Hill
- Jalen Reagor (Phi, at Dal) OVER 33.5 receiving yards on DK
- Austin Hooper (Cle, at NYJ) OVER 27.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
- Nick Chubb (Cle, at NYJ) OVER 100.5 total yards on William Hill
- Jonathan Taylor (Ind, at Pit) OVER 53.5 rushing yards on DK
- Chad Hansen (Hou, vs Cin) OVER 2.5 receptions on William Hill
- Patrick Mahomes (KC, vs. Atl) UNDER 330.5 passing yards on DK
- Devin Singletary (Buf, at NE) OVER 8.5 rushing attempts on William Hill
- Kareem Hunt (Cle, at NYJ) OVER 9.5 rushing attempts on William Hill
- Jordan Akins (Hou, vs. Cin) OVER 2.5 receptions yards on DK
- Russell Wilson (Sea, vs. LAR) OVER 24.5 rushing yards on DK
- Tee Higgins (Cin, at Hou) OVER 4.5 receptions on DK
- Calvin Ridley (Atl, at KV) OVER 5.5 receptions on William Hill