Week 16 Hansen's Hints


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Week 16 Hansen's Hints

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)

  • Diontae Johnson - Caught the ball better last week and had a nice game with 8/59/1 on 13 targets. He has 10 or more targets in 6 of his last 7, so he’s hard to sit. Brandin Cooks posted 6/59 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week.
  • Nyheim Hines - Not a good week to use him with the Steelers allowing league-lows in catches (3.3) and receiving yards (22.7) per game to RBs, and I don’t think the Steelers offense can make this a shootout.

  • James Conner - Totally impossible to trust, so he is a desperation play only. He has only 10/18 rushing since Week 11 with 0 catches. The Colts are giving up just 78.5 rushing yards per game on 3.8 YPC to RBs this season and Benny Snell could always usurp him after he posted 21/117/1 against the Bengals last week.


None of note.

  • Jonathan Taylor - He’s been feasting on great matchups and this is not one of them, but I think his role is solid enough to count on 15-20 touches, and the Steeler are slipping a little on defense and just gave up 26 touches for 97/2 to Giovani Bernard of all people. Their bad offense is hurting their defense, so Taylor should be able to get 15 FP fairly easily.

  • Philip Rivers - 2 TDs or more in five straight games, but only 28 attempts in each of his last two games and the Steelers haven’t allowed a QB to reach 20+ FP against them this season. This could be a very boring game.

  • T.Y. Hilton - He did make a big play last week and did get to 70+ yards and at least 4 catches for the fourth week in a row. Stefon Diggs did manage 10/130/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, but it’s fair to say Hilton is looking a little less appealing than he’s been in a month.

  • Zach Pascal - Return to the forefront last week with 5/79/2, and he is kinda always open, but I don’t like him in a below-average matchup.

  • Michael Pittman - The matchup isn’t good and he’s failed to reach double-digit FP in four straight, so he can’t be used.

  • Ben Roethlisberger - It looks like he is the problem, as he’s averaging just 5.3 YPA in his last five games with just 239 yards/game on a whopping 45 attempts per game. The Colts defense has given up 310+ yards and 21+ FP in four of their last five games, but they are certainly good enough to keep the Steelers struggling.

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster - Has a sad 4.2 YPT in the last five with 28/154/2 receiving on 37 targets. Slot WRs Keke Coutee (5/53/1 receiving) and Hunter Renfrow (5/38) each have five catches against Indy’s zone in the last two weeks, but Kenny Moore is a good slot corner, so like last week I don’t like JuJu.

  • Chase Claypool - He has fallen below 4 catches in three straight, as James Washington is giving them some juice and playing more. The Colts had three different WRs reach double-digit FP against them in both Week 13 and Week 15, at least, but Claypool is more of a desperation play at this point.

  • Eric Ebron - He should play after he suffered a back injury last week, and it’s a revenge game! The Colts have allowed three different TEs to reach double-digit FP in the last two weeks, but I still don’t love Ebron this week and view him as more of a desperation option.

New York Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

  • J.K. Dobbins - He’s been the guy, out-snapping Gus Edwards 35 to 27 and he out-carried him 14 to 9. Dobbins has 11+ carries, 53+ rushing yards, and a TD in four straight, so I’d expect more success, since the Ravens won’t likely crush in the passing game.
  • Evan Engram - He has fallen off a cliff this month, and now he’s hurting, although he did work fully Friday. He has only 10/94 receiving on 19 targets in the last three weeks, and it’s not a good matchup. He’s a desperation play only.
  • Sterling Shepard - Only 8/108 on 18 targets the last three weeks, but he is Jones’ guy, if desperate. Golden Tate is out, and that does help, plus the Ravens are actually giving up `8.5 catches per game to WRs the last four weeks. No CB Jimmy Smith can’t hurt.
  • Daniel Jones _ You simply can’t use him with his hamstring issue, even though he should go. Gardner Minshew posted 226/2 passing against the Ravens last week, but we can’t count on Jones’ legs, and that’s a deal-breaker in a tougher matchup.

  • Darius Slayton - Some signs of life lately but still just 8/119 receiving on 18 targets the last three weeks. He’s a viable long-shot play on the chance he can make a big play. The Ravens didn’t allow a Jaguars WR to reach double-digit FP last week, at least. No CB Jimmy Smith can’t hurt.

  • Wayne Gallman - it feels like the magic is over. He has scored now in three straight, and it’s possible they activated and play Devonta Freeman. Even if they don’t, they don’t throw to Gallman and Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis are ruining his chances. The Ravens have allowed eight different RBs to reach 12+ FP in their last six games, at least, and they are not scary against the run right now..

  • Lamar Jackson - Lamar has been back the last three weeks with 10 total TDs with 4 rushing TDs in those last three. I was conservative with Lamar’s projection, though, since this is a tougher matchup. Kyler Murray (47 rushing yards) and Russell Wilson (45) each had some rushing success against them in Weeks 13-14, so Lamar may need to be special on the ground this week.

  • Gus Edwards - Averaging 8.7 touches and 77 total yards a game the last three weeks, and he’s worth using if you need him. It’s not the best matchup, though, as the Giants held Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to 22/71/1 rushing and 5/23 receiving last week.

  • Marquise Brown - He’s heated up with 13+ FP in four straight, and he had his best yardage game since Week 1 with 6/98 receiving last week. But he was added to the injury report with a knee, although he worked fully Friday, and he should see a lot of top corner James Bradberry. If you’re on the fence with him, go the other way unless you need upside.

  • Mark Andrews - He’s a stud TE right now against anyone, but this isn’t a great matchup. Dan Arnold (2/27/1 receiving) and Austin Hooper (5/41/1) have each reached double-digit FP against the Giants in the last two weeks, but they’ve been stingy against the TE all year, giving up the 12th-fewest YPT to TEs this year.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) at Houston Texans (4-10)

  • David Johnson - I liked him last week, but had no idea he was capable of an 11/106 receiving performance, but he did it. He put up 133 yards of offense last week with Duke Johnson out, and Dookie is out again. It’s a good matchup with the Bengals giving up 4.9 YPC to RBs, and Johnson actually got them for 17/91 and 3/36 receiving as Cardinal in 2019. He’s looking good knowing Benny Snell and Pittsburgh’s horrible rushing attack posted 18/84/1 rushing and 3/23 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Tee Higgins - He’s the clear top dog this week with Tyler Boyd out and if it’s Allen at QB, Higgins is a pretty good play. Higgins had 5 catches in three straight games without Joe Burrow before putting up only 3/31 receiving on six targets against the Steelers last week. But even then, his numbers stood out on this team, so he’s a good bet for 5-6 catches in this one.

  • Giovani Bernard - Hard to trust, but his performance last week and the good matchup is pretty compelling. He posted 22.7 FP against the mighty Steelers last week, and now there’s some hope with Brandon Allen starting. The Texans are giving up 5.4 YPC and 180 total yards per game to RBs on the season and 5.5 YPC and 6.3 RB catches per game the last four weeks. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 149/1 scrimmage last week.

  • Keke Coutee - Coutee gets a tougher matchup this week against Mackensie Alexander, who shut down JuJu Smith-Schuster (3/15 receiving) last week. Coutee posted 5/53/1 receiving on seven targets in a tougher matchup against the Colts in Week 15, at least, but I like him less than usual in this one.
  • A.J. Green - He’s not an awful longshot play with Tyler Boyd out, as he’s clearly one of the top options for Brandon Allen. Green has 8/102 receiving on 10 targets in the last two games, and it’s a good matchup with the Texans giving up 39.7 FPG to WRs (10th-most), which is just over what they’re giving up the last four weeks.

  • Chad Hansen - I’m guessing he gets more of the easier matchup on the outside than Cooks, so I like him to stay impactful after he added 2/55/1 on three targets last week.

  • Jordan Akins - He actually did something last week with his larger role, putting up 5/50 receiving on 6 targets. It was the second week in a row he’s seen 6 targets, and it’s a good matchup with the Bengals giving up 14.6 FP to TEs (6th-most) and 5/3/69/5 per game the last four weeks.

  • Brandon Allen - He’s on track to play with his knee injury and he’s completed 65.5% of his passes, so he’s not hopeless. Mitchell Trubisky hung 267/3 passing and 4/23 rushing against the Texans two weeks ago, but Allen is a major longshot.

  • Deshaun Watson - Big game last week and he has now reached 315+ passing yards in 4 of his last 5. He may not be needed to do much in this one, but thankfully it looks like Brandon Allen will play, giving the Bengals a chance. It’s actually not the best matchup, since the Bengals have given up more than 230 passing yards just once in their last 10 games.

  • Brandin Cooks - His production hasn’t gone up since Will Fuller left the lineup, but he has scored a decent 11 FP in each of his first two games without Fuller. The Bengals have been good against WRs with William Jackson mostly, but Darius Phillips is something of a weak link. Diontae Johnson did get 8/59/1 in this matchup last week.

Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)

  • David Montgomery - Looking incredible again based on the matchup with the Jags getting run all over. They’re giving up 31/167 rushing to RBs the last four weeks with 5/50 receiving so he should do as well as J. K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards did last week when they combined for 159/1 against the Jags, who are officially tanking it with Mike Glennon starting.

  • Allen Robinson - It’s an A-Rob revenge game, and he has a lot to be angry about having been forced to play with Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. He’s at 74+ yards in 4 straight and the matchup is excellent against the tanking Jaguars.

  • Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley - At least Collin Johnson is out, but you can’t use any of these guys with any confidence, even though the Bears are down 2 of their top-3 CBs. Shenault had the most targets last week and actually has 9+ in three straight, so he’s the reach if you have to. If you do, just know Cole will score. If you go Cole, he will not score. That’s how it works.

None of note.

  • Mitchell Trubisky - All signs point to another low-volume game, and he attempted just 21 passes last week, which held him to only 202 yards. But he played well again (9.6 YPA) and he also added 34 rushing yards. Trubisky is a viable reach play with the second-best fantasy matchup in the league against the Jag, who have allowed multiple passing TDs in 8 straight games. Jags are down CB Sidney Jones, their best corner right now, which helps.

  • Darnell Mooney - He’s making plays still with a TD in two straight, but the targets are not easy to come by with just 5.5/game the last four weeks. It is a good matchup, though, and Anthony Miller has been MIA. Marquise Brown posted 6/98 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Cole Kmet - He’s their guy and they love him, but Jimmy Graham is still playing. Jacksonville is giving up the second-most TDs per game to TEs (.8) after Mark Andrews got them for 5/66/1 receiving last week, so he has a chance. But so does Jimmy, at least in the red zone.

  • Devine Ozigbo and Dare Ogunbowale - James Robinson is out so it’s these two guys. We feel Ozigbno will get more lead-runner snaps, since he’s a better overall player and prospect, but it’s a tough backfield to handicap. But we see Ogunbowale as a change-of-pace/passing back. Thing is, Ozigbo catches it well, which is why we prefer him. It’s ideal to avoid the backfield, though, since the Bears are giving up the eighth-fewest FPG to RBs (21.4) this season.

  • Mike Glennon - He split reps with Gardner Minshew this week and we could see Minshew if Glennon plays well. That’s right, they are tanking. The Bears have given up 20+ FP to QBs in 3 of their last 4, and are down two of their top-3 CBs (Johnson and Skrine), so I’m not ruling a surprising game out. But I’m not endorsing Glennon in any way.

  • D.J. Chark - He probably has more upside with the strong-armed Glennon, but this situation is kind of a disaster, so I’d look for another option. It’s just too risky with three other WRs involved and a QB switch possible. He led the Jaguars WRs with 4/53 receiving on 29 routes last week, for what it’s worth.

Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13)

  • Austin Hooper - I would not want to use any of the Browns WRs, obviously. I think they can treat Hooper like their #1 receiver this week and get by. He posted a season-high 15.1 FP last week with 5/41/1 on 6 targets and he ran a route on a promising 71.4% of Baker’s dropbacks (25 of 35) last week. The Jets have been bad against the TE and give up league-highs in receiving yards per game (66.1) and TDs allowed (13). I don’t know what you can do with Hooper other than consider him a top-7 TE this week.

  • Nick Chubb - He will be needed to carry the offene this week with all their WR issues, so there’s that. He also posted 3.5+ receiving FP for the fourth straight game last week, as it seems they are using him more in the passing game to be less predictable, and he can certainly catch it. He should be a lock for 20+ touches with 2-3 catches in there.

  • Kareem Hunt - He hasn’t hit 10 FP the last two games and he had a season-low 10 touches last week. Touches won’t be a problem this week and the Jets are giving up the third-most receptions to RBs (6.0), so Hunt is a good bet to get you well over 10 FP in this one.

  • Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins - They’re screwed and so are you if you needed them.

  • Breshad Perriman - He hasn’t hit 30+ receiving yards in three straight games with only 5 catches in those three games. Starting him is insane right now.

  • Jamison Crowder - He has 12+ FP in 2 of his last 3 and the Browns have been bad against the slot all year. I do like him as a reach play, as Breshad Perriman has disappeared, and top outside CB Denzel Ward is back.
  • Baker Mayfield - You just can’t use him this week given that he’s down his top-4 WRs. This would be a good week for the Browns to go back to hiding the QB with Baker throwing it 20-25 times, if that. Maybe he gets 2-3 TDs, but I doubt he even gets to 20 FP if he does.

  • Frank Gore - Gore actually had 23/59/1 rushing last week, good for only 2.6 YPC, in their stunning win against the Rams. He’ll probably get half of that this week, but the Browns issues on offense can’t hurt. Gore has double-digit FP in 3 of his last 4, but the Browns are giving up 116.5 scrimmage yards per game to RBs (9th-fewest) so I’d use someone else.

  • Sam Darnold - He hit 200+ passing yards last week for the first time in months, but with the Browns a good bet to eat the clock with their running game and CB Denzel Ward back, I can’t get behind Darnold. I do like Jamison Crowder, at least.

  • Denzel Mims - He failed to hit 40+ receiving last week for the first time in seven games and while he’s been pretty impressive, he’s a long-shot play only.

  • Chris Herndon - He did something last week with 3/48 and the Browns have been bad against the TE all year. But no.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

  • Calvin Ridley - He’s the only Falcon I feel good about and he has posted 16+ FP in each of his five full games without Julio Jones and Ridley has 14+ FP in five straight. The Chiefs are giving up the second-fewest FPG to WRs (31.6), but he should get 10+ targets again.

  • Le’Veon Bell - He had his best performance of the season last week in a tougher matchup, putting up 16/76/1 scrimmage and he was the lead runner when CEH went down. Darrel Williams will mix in, but Bell should be good for 15-20 opportunities, and he has TD upside. On the other end of the spectrum, he’s not a lock to get it done. If I needed a back with a chance, I’d feel good, but I’m not using him over a comparable option that has been more reliable.

  • Travis Kelce - The Falcons are giving up 15.4 FPG to TE (5th-most), which includes a combined 7/83 receiving to Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate last week, so he should be more than fine, as usual.

  • Todd Gurley - He’s now dead after putting up 23/60 rushing in his last four games.
  • Ito Smith - He’s the main guy now and he has 37/167/1 over the last three weeks, a lot better than Gurley, and he can catch it. The Chiefs are giving up 143.8 scrimmage yards per game but just 10 TDs overall to RBs, so he’s a legit threat to get you 10 FP, if desperate.

  • Russell Gage - He has 12+ FP in 4 of his last 5 with 5/68/1 10 targets last week. That helps my confidence, at least, and Lynn Bowden (7/82 receiving) and Chris Godwin (8/97) had big games out of the slot against the Chiefs in the last four weeks, so he can be used if you need him.

  • Sammy Watkins - He could be needed more with Tyreek banged up, but unless we hear news on Hill that is negative, Watkins is just an ok reach play. Last week he reached double-digit FP for the first time since coming back from his layoff with 4/60 receiving on 6 targets against the Saints. Seven different WRs have posted 13+ FP against the Falcons in the last three weeks, so it’s a good spot overall.

  • Matt Ryan - Shockingly good game last week with 356/3 in Atlanta against the Bucs, but I’m not buying that it can carry over to this one in KC, even though the weather is fine. The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing TDs in six straight games with five of those QBs reaching 20+ FP, but they can be aggressive and blitz a lot, and they do have a good secondary overall. No Julio means Ryan’s downside is very real. He will have to throw it a lot, which may help, but it’s no guarantee.

  • Hayden Hurst - He actually scored last week, but he’s not someone to count on. Last week’s 10+ points was the first time he hit double-digit FP since Week 9. It is a good matchup by the numbers, so he’s not hopeless, but I can’t endorse him fully.

  • Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes should be fine here in KC with CB Darqueze Dennard out and the matchup beatable, as Tom Brady shook out a bad first quarter to roast them for 390/2 passing. Mahomes may not have a healthy Tyreek Hill at his disposal, though.

  • Tyreek Hill - He’s playing through pretty bad hamstring issues, so there’s actual downside to using him. The man has 17 TDs in 14 games, and the Bucs had three WRs post 13+ FP last week against the Falcons, who give up the second-most yards per game to WRs (205.2). Check his status leading up to kickoff if you can, though.

Carolina Panthers (4-10) at Washington Football Team (6-8)

  • Logan Thomas - He’s actually QB-proof here, as he went off with Haskins last week after clicking with Smith. McLaurin is likely out, so he should be busy. The Panthers have given up double-digit FP to a TE in 9 straight, so Thomas is looking good going into this one no matter what.
  • Curtis Samuel - He has 10+ opportunities in 3 of his last 4, but he did come up small last week with only 4/42 on 9 targets with 2/6 rushing. Samuel has still reached double-digit FP in 7 of his last 9, but this isn’t the best week for him. Tyler Lockett (4/34 receiving) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (7/28) have come up small out of the slot against the Football Team in the last three weeks.

  • Teddy Bridgewater - He hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two, but he’s been okay because he’s running a lot with 4 TDs on the ground his last five games. He did get a solid 258 passing yards against the Packers last week, but TFT has held five straight QBs to fewer than 20+ FP, including Russell Wilson, who had only 121/1 passing and 6/52 rushing last week. It’s not a great week to use Teddy, but he won’t be worthless if you have to.

  • Terry McLaurin - He’s likely out and will be risky if he’s surprisingly in.

  • Cam Sims - I kind of like him, but mainly with Alex Smith, if Smith goes. Cam had only 5/26 receiving on 8 targets last week, but he did have a nice game with Smith a few weeks ago against the Steelers.
  • Mike Davis - Christian McCaffrey is set to miss another game, so it’s Davis yet again. He did underwhelm last week with only 16 touches and 61 yards. He looked good, but they played only 54% of the snaps, as they got a look at backup Rodney Smith, who had 35% of the snaps and 7/47. It’s not a good matchup with Washington giving up just 110.5 total yards to RBs, so hopefully Davis is just a flex option for you at best. The days of feeling good about using Davis are over.

  • D.J. Moore - Returned after a week's absence and didn’t miss a beat last week, putting up 6/131 receiving and he has taken over as the top guy with 95+ receiving yards and 19+ FP in 3 of his last 4. This is a tougher matchup, though, and the Seahawks didn’t have a WR reach 45+ receiving yards last week.

  • Robby Anderson - He came up small last week in a tougher matchup against Packers CB Jaire Alexander just 2/21 receiving on 5 targets. Washington is giving up only giving up just 148.4 receiving yards per game to WRs (5th-fewest), so there’s no compelling reason to use him if you have comparable options.

  • J.D. McKissic - You really want him when they are playing from behind, and that’s a little bit of a tall order in this one, but JD handled 22-of-26 RB touches against the Seahawks and he put up a strong 101/1 scrimmage, and the matchup is good. The Panthers are a good matchup, giving up 143 total yards per game to RBs and got hit for 158/1 by Aaron Jones last week. However, JD is much less appealing with Antonio Gibson looking set to play.

  • Washington QB - Dwayne Haskins may get the nod after he got first-team reps in practice early in the week and with Alex Smith still not a sure thing. The matchup is officially good for whoever starts, at least, as the Panthers had been hit for 280+ yards and 3+ TDs in 4 of their last 5 games. They did limit Aaron Rodgers last week, though.

  • Antonio Gibson - He’s a shaky GTD, and I’d avoid if I could. Aggravation is in play if he does go.

  • Peyton Barber - If Gibson is out, he’s got a chance to steal a TD, as he did last week. The Panthers are a good matchup, giving up 143 total yards per game to RBs.

Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

  • Melvin Gordon - He’s definitely looked better lately and he’s had between 11-15 carries in each of his last six games and he’s at 5.5 YPC in those games. It’s not the best matchup by the numbers, and he did little in the first matchup with 8/26 rushing and 6/21 receiving, but he’s the guy with Phillip Lindsay out, so other than some work for Royce Freeman, we’re looking at 15-20 touches for sure.

  • Noah Fant - The only good thing about Lock right now is that he’s feeding the ball to Fant, who hit 12+ FP last week for the first time since Week 2 with 8/68/1 on a season-high 11 targets. It was a fat 34% share, so he’s looking good against the Chargers, who he had 7/47 against the Chargers Week 8.

  • Austin Ekeler - Little up and down but 4+ catches in each game since he’s back, but losing out on TDs to Kalen Ballage. The Broncos are giving up a solid 132 yards per game to RBs and Devin Singletary and Zack Moss got them for 165/1 last week, so it’s a solid spot.


None of note.


None of note.

  • Drew Lock - He’s very unreliable and shaky on film still, so he’s a desperation play only. He had a miserable 4.1 YPA for 132/1 last week against the Bills, as he was seemingly afraid to throw to his WRs. The Chargers have given up just 5 TD passes the last four weeks, but mobile QBs have hurt them, so Lock will have to do something with his legs, which is possible. But he’s a low-end guy all the way.

  • Tim Patrick - He’s been below 45 yards in four straight, so if he doesn’t score, he kills you. It’s a medium matchup, but there is no compelling reason to use him unless desperate.

  • Jerry Jeudy - This poor guy hasn’t hit 45+ yards in five straight, so he’s dead to use for the rest of 2020, at least he is going into Week 16.

  • K.J. Hamler - Had those two long TDs in Week 13, but it was a complete fluke. He’s failed to hit double-digit FP in his other five games since Week 9. The Chargers have a solid group of corners and give up a league-low 10.6 catches per game to WRs.

  • Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (back) - They’re both GTD’s. We need some more information on those guys to make a call, so check our projections all morning before the 1pm kickoff for the latest. Allen and Williams will each have 10 days to get healthy for this game, so maybe we get some positive news this morning. Allen posted 9/67/1 receiving while Williams had 5/99/1 in this matchup in Week 8.

  • Tyron Johnson and Jaylen Guyton - Johnson put up 3/61/1 receiving on 5 targets and looked very good, but so did Guyton, who put up 4/91 receiving on 6 targets. Obviously, their values depend on Allen and Williams, but if the starters are in Johnson is the best reach.

  • Donald Parham - Hunter Henry had just 4/33 receiving in this matchup in Week 8, but while Dawson Knox scored in this matchup last week with 2/36/1. Parham can be a chunk play guy, so you’re hoping for one big play or red zone look, which is entirely possible. They do also have former college WR Stephen Anderson in the mix, and he is talented.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-9)

  • Jalen Hurts - Hurts has put up 20+ FP in his first two starts, both more challenging than this one. Dallas does have talent on defense, but they also have some injuries and playing out, like LB Vander Esch, and they have been hit by running QBs. Lamar Jackson got them for 94/1 just a couple of weeks ago. I think this will be a fantasy-friendly game, so Hurts will get his and another 20+ FP.

  • Miles Sanders - He’s frustrating, as he’s handled 36-of-41 RB touches since Hurts took over, and the Cowboys have been a good matchup for RBs all year and have been hit for 133.6 rushing yards per game and 4.9 YPC by RBs this season. No Leighton Vander Esch at LB for Dallas may help Sanders, although LVE has not been good this year. They are vulnerable to a big-play back like Sanders, so I’m expecting him to pop off at least one big run.

  • Dallas Goedert - Seeing a better snap and target share than Zach Ertz and he has 4+ catches in six straight. Dallas hasn’t faced a lot of good TEs, but Jordan Reed did score against them last week and Goedert looks like one of Hurts’ top-2 receivers.

  • CeeDee Lamb - I liked him here last week and he had his best receiving game in almost two months with 5/85 receiving on 7 targets. Lamb managed just 4/27 receiving against the Eagles in Week 8 with DiNucci at QB, but he gets a much better matchup this week against a depleted secondary, so I think he’s got a chance to come through again.

  • Amari Cooper - He had his first horrible game in a while with 2/10 on just 3 targets. DeAndre Hopkins did go off in this matchup last week, but that was with Darius Slay out. Slay is back, and one of the reasons they wanted Slay was to cover alpha dog WRs like Cooper, so Amari’s got a tougher matchup in this one.
  • Jalen Reagor - He’s Hurts’s favorite WR target and their shot-play guy. Greg Ward did score 2 TDs last week, but Reagor matched Goedert with a team-high 8 targets in Week 15, and Reagor looks like a big play waiting to happen. It may not happen this year, but I think he has a good chance in this one, since Dallas has had a lot of busts and breakdowns on defense this year.

  • Michael Gallup - Left last week’s game with a hip issue, but he practiced fully late in the week, so he’s seemingly good to go. He posted 7/61 receiving on 12 targets in this matchup earlier this season (with Ben DiNucci at QB), so he has some upside in this one with Slay on Cooper mostly.

  • Ezekiel Elliott - All of a sudden, Zeke is looking to play this week, and I wonder why? Maybe because his absence helped create a huge day for Tony Pollard, who has been better than Zeke this year. Zeke is expected back, and I’d have to use him over Pollard, but Pollard’s likely to get work, capping Zeke’s upside. The Eagles are giving up just 3.7 YPC and 115.1 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, so it’s not a good matchup for the former Eagle killer Zeke.

  • Andy Dalton - Very little upside this year, and Darius Slay is back for Philly. He’s thrown for 2 TDs in three straight, at least, and he can get that here. Kyler Murray posted 406/3 passing with an 11.3 YPA average against a decimated Eagles secondary last week, so Dalton may have a little more upside this week.

  • Dalton Schultz - Has just 5 targets in the last two, but he did get 6/53 receiving on 8 eight targets earlier in the year in this matchup, and Dallas should have to throw more than they have lately, so he’s a decent bet for 8-10 FP.

Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4)

  • Cooper Kupp - He’s been less productive and more volatile than Woods, but Kupp does have 5+ catches in 7 of his last 8. He had only 5/50 receiving on seven targets against the Seahawks in Week 10, but Seattle has been bad against slot receivers all year and they still give up the third-most FP to WRs in the slot on the season, so Kupp is looking more than fine.

  • Darrell Henderson - Cam Akers is out and he’s handled 92% of the RB carries with a 10% target share in the last two games, so I’d think Henderson can get a lot of that even with Malcolm Brown working in a complementary role. It’s not a great matchup, and Henderson posted 7/28/1 rushing in this matchup earlier this season, but he’s got a chance for sure, especially if the game works in their favor and they have a lead.

  • Tyler Lockett - He’s failed to hit 70+ receiving yards in eight straight with only 5/66 receiving on a team-high nine targets in this matchup in Week 10. But notice he led the team in targets in this matchup this week. He will have to step up with Ramsey on Metcalf, so he should be busy and he has more potential than usual.

  • D.K. Metcalf - He had a season-worst 2/28 receiving on four targets against mostly Jalen Ramsey in Week 10, and he will see that matchup a lot today, obviously. No matter how you slice it, it’s the toughest matchup in the league for Metcalf, so he’s looking worse than usual. The Rams are allowing a league-low 131.1 receiving yards per game to WRs.

None of note.

  • Jared Goff - He’s tough to trust now as he’s rolling with a 6.6 YPA with a 3.3% TD rate in his last nine games. But they may come out throwing in this one, so he does have a chance. Goff has been up over 8.0 YPA just once in his last nine games, and that came against Seattle in Week 10, when he completed 27/37 passes for 302 yards (8.2 YPA), but no TD. He’s hard to back but I think he'll be decent at worst this week.

  • Robert Woods - He disappointed in this matchup in Week 10 with just 5/33 receiving, but he’s had 80+ yards and/or a TD in 4 of his last 5, and the matchup is still beatable for sure. Terry McLaurin needed 12 targets to post 7/77 receiving last week, but Woods’ QB is a little better than Washington’s.

  • Tyler Higbee - He’s hit double-digit FP in 3 of his last 3 and had 3/60 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 10, but he’s a so-so play no matter what with a week-to-week role. Things do seem to be improving, at least.

  • Russell Wilson - It’s another Wilson tailspin to end the season, just like last year. He’s maxed out at 17 FP in 4 of his last six, including a weak 12.9 FP against the Rams in Week 10. There’ the tough matchup for DK Metcalf, so things aren’t looking good with the Rams giving up a league-low 213.1 passing yards per game to QBs. I do think the Rams will have success and make Wilson throw it a lot, so I still think he can come through with top-12 numbers.

  • Chris Carson - Hyde and now Penny are in the mix, but Carson has between 17-19 opportunities per game since he returned to the lineup, and he’s averaging a solid 92 scrimmage yards per game with 2 TDs. The Rams are stingy to RBs too as they’re allowing just 78.1 rushing yards per game with just 10 scores allowed to RBs, but Carson is still a strong RB2, after he saw a high snap share last week even with Penny in the mix.

Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)

  • Ryan Tannehill - He’s going to have to throw it a lot for them to win, most likely, and the guy comes through more often than not. I view him as a top-12 option again this week.

  • Derrick Henry - He’s been at 20+ FP in 4 of his last 5, and the Packers are giving up 4.5 YPC, 92.6 rushing yards per game, and 13 rushing TDs to RBs this season, so it’s a good matchup with some bad weather thrown in to help his cause.

  • A.J. Brown - Has 11+ FP in 10 of his last 11 games and D.J. Moore posted 6/131 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week. I think he will see a little less of top corner Alexander based on how they often line up, for what it’s worth. Ultimately, the Titans are going to have to throw it to win, so he’s looking good.

  • Aaron Jones - Jamaal Williams is doubtful, so Jones is looking good. He played a season-high 90% of the snaps last week with 23 touches and 158/1, and D’Andre Swift posted 19/82/2 scrimmage in this matchup last week.

  • Aaron Rodgers - He had 3+ TDs in 8-of-9 games in Weeks 7-14, so he will bounce back after posting only 143/1 passing with a rushing TD last week. The Titans are still giving up 2.1 TD passes per game (3rd-most) and aren’t equipped to slow down Davante Adams.

  • Davante Adams - No TD last week, which means he’ll likely get 2 TDs this week. Marvin Jones crushed the Titans for 10/112/1 receiving last week, and Adams can crush Malcolm Butler, for sure.

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Mr. Volatility cannot be used with any confidence, since Allen Lazard had his best game since September last week.
  • Allen Lazard - Had his best game since September last week with 5/56 receiving on 6 targets, and the Titans are giving up the third-most FPG (43.0) and they’re facing the second-most targets (25.1) against WRs.
  • Corey Davis - He hit 100+ receiving yards for the fifth time last week, so this is a true breakout season for him. Davis has 6+ catches and 15+ FP in three of their four losses this season, which bodes well in this one as the Titans should give up a lot of production to the Packers offense. There is some downside, though, as the Packers are giving up just 11.9 catches and 149.9 receiving yards per game to WRs, and he may see more of top corner Alexander.

  • Jonnu Smith - He had 5/52 receiving against the Lions last week, but the Packers are giving up just 3.9 catches per game to TEs (4th-fewest) this season, and they still throw to 1-2 other TEs, so he’s a shaky option still.

  • Robert Tonyan - He has scored in five straight and the Titans have given up seven TDs to TEs. He’s still a TE1.

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)

  • Kirk Cousins - Kirkie has been at 18-23 FP in 6 of his last 7, and he’s attempted 35+ passes in four straight. It’s not an easy matchup overall, but his opportunity should be a positive, as the Saints look to focus on Dalvin Cook and their running game, plus Cousins and their top WRs usually perform better against man to man, which the Saints run more than any other team in the league. That also opens them up giving up rushing production to QBs, and Kirkie has 3+ carries in four straight. Confidence shouldn’t be a problem for Cousins, who made the best throw of his career against New Orleans in the playoffs last year. Cousins has actually thrived against the Saints, dating way back to 2015: 324/4, 322/3, 359/2, and 242/1 with 0 INTs in the playoff last year.

  • Justin Jefferson - He’s been the alpha dog for this passing game the last three weeks with 21/264/1 receiving on 31 targets. The Saints play a lot of man, and Jefferson has been good against man all year (he’s certainly made big plays vs. zone as well). He will see some Marshawn Lattimore, but he could see more Janoris Jenkins, who has played well this year. But I see the Vikings having to throw it 35+ times, and Jefferson getting it done yet again. Big-play receivers Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman each scored against the Saints last week.

  • Adam Thielen - Yardage is down lately with only 13/125/2 receiving on 18 targets his last three games, but he is great against man to man, which is what the Saints run more than any other team in the NFL this season, and it’s been what they’ve run for years. That may explain how Thielen has averaged 7.2 receptions for 115.7 yards in four career games against New Orleans dating back to 2017. In the playoffs last year, the Saints put Janoris Jenkins on Stefon Diggs when they were man to man, which left Thielen on Marshawn Lattimore often. Thielen going into that game had just 4/52 receiving total on 10 targets in his final four games of the regular season. He was banged up and in a slump, yet he crushed Lattimore and put up 7/129 on 9 targets and caught a clutch 43-yard pass in OT inside the Saints 5 that basically won them the game. Thielen should see a lot of Lattimore again this week, and I expect the Vikings to have to throw it 35+ times, so I feel really good about Thielen’s ability to produce this week, especially with red-zone target Kyle Rudolph out.

  • Alvin Kamara - Produced in an ugly game last week, and the Vikings were trounced on the ground last week by David Montgomery crushed them for 32/146/2 rushing last week. Three straight RBs (Montgomery, Ronald Jones, and James Robinson) have reached 80+ total yards and 1+ TD against the Vikings, and LB Eric Kendricks being out is huge for Kamara, since Kendricks is one of the best coverage LBs out there.

  • Dalvin Cook - He’s Dalvin Cook, so you’re starting him, and he’s averaging an insane 28 touches a game in his last four. He’s hit 100+ rushing yards in three straight, but he will have to work very hard to get to 100 against this tough run defense. The Saints are giving up 4.4 YPC to RBs the last four weeks, thanks in large part to an 82-yard run by Miles Sanders in Week 14. If you take away that run, they’re giving up fewer than 4.0 YPC to RBs. I see the Saints selling out to stop Cook, but Dalvin is at least getting 4+ targets a game the last four weeks. The Saints, though, don’t give up catches to RBs. He can go off against anyone given his large role, but this is one of the tougher matchups for him in the league.
  • Marquez Callaway - Trying to guess what Sean Payton will do is dangerous, but with Thomas, Tre’Quan, and Deonte Harris out, if I were to take a shot with a secondary Saints WR, I’d have to go Callaway. That’s assuming he’s active, since he was just designated to return this week, It’s a risky play, though, with Juwan Johnson (3 targets) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (2/29/1) contributing last week. They may also play Austin Carr this week. Calloway has about a quarter of his targets from the slot this year, and he has caught 15 of his 19 targets with an 8/75 performance with 10 targets on his resume from Week 7, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with 10+ FP.
  • Irv Smith - He dropped a TD pass last week and we saw Tyler Conklin score last week, so he’s not easy to trust. The 3/37 on 4 targets he had last week was decent, at least, and no Rudolph does help his chances, if desperate. I do like the Vikings passing game this week, so he’s got a chance.

  • Drew Brees - I’d attribute his poor showing last week to rust, and we’ve seen Brees look bad in spots the last 1-2 years only to rebound, so I’m not panicking, since he did have 3 TD passes and was the QB13 last week with 20.4 FP. His receiving corps is depleted, which should cap his upside, but the Vikings were run all over last week and they don’t have a great pass rush. Andy Dalton is the only QB to reach 20+ FP in the last month, but Brees should be good for at least serviceable numbers.

  • Latavius Murray - He’s not a great play in Week 16, but he’s averaging a solid 9.5 touches/game the last four weeks, and I can see the Saints leaning on their running game a little more, given the state of their receiving corps. It’s also a revenge game!

  • Emmanuel Sanders - He is the top wideout, obviously, with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out. I was disappointed in him last week, though, as he saw only a 14.7% target share. He did get a solid 4/76 on 5 targets, at least. He now has 4+ catches and 55+ receiving yards in each of his last four games with Brees. Darnell Mooney made a play and posted 4/49/1 receiving in this matchup last week. Sanders should see a lot of rookie CB Cameron Dantzler, though, and Dantzler has been outstanding.

  • Jared Cook - Really disappointed me last week with just 2/29, causing me to lose two prop bet recommendations by 1 catch and 2 yards. Cook has more than 3 catches only twice this season, and the Vikings have allowed just five TDs to TEs this season and give up only 9.7 FPG to TEs in the last four weeks. No LB Kendricks does help, though, and he’s always a threat to score.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9)

  • Tom Brady - He’s still shaky at times, but he made some great throws last week and he has 2 TDs or more in five straight. Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill have each thrown for 270+ yards and three TDs for 30+ FP in the last two weeks against the Lions, who have no pass rush and are still down their top two corners. Brady’s looking great going into this one.

  • Mike Evans - Hasn’t scored in two straight, but had his first 100-yard game since Week 4 last week and the Lions have given up 4 TD passes to WRs in the last two weeks, and are still down their top two corners. Evans is probably the safest bet to have a big game due to his big-play and red zone action.

  • Chris Godwin - Only 8 targets the last two weeks, with 6/61/1 receiving, but the Lions secondary is extremely beatable. The only way you can sit Godwin is if you have a comparable option getting a lot better of a target share for his team.

  • Antonio Brown - Had his best game of the season last week with 5/93/1, and he’s looked good for several weeks. He now has 5+ catches in 4 of his last 5 even though he’s not running as many routes as Chris Godwin. It’s a great matchup with the Lions giving up 14.6 catches per game to WRs. Plus, slot corner Justin Coleman has not been good this year and Detroit gives up the second-mot FPG to slot receivers on the season.

  • Rob Gronkowski - Brady has just missed him on some bigger plays the last 2-3 weeks, but he now has 3 or fewer catches in 5 of 6 since AB started playing. The Lions have at least given up 5 and 10+ FP to TEs in three straight games to lower-end guys Jonnu Smith, Robert Tonyan, and Cole Kmet, giving Gronk hope.

  • Leonard Fournette - Ronald Jones will miss Week 16, so I have no choice but to strongly back Fournette, who got 17 touches in a weird game last week with 65 yards and 2 TDs. The Lions have given up 25+ FP to Derrick Henry and David Montgomery in consecutive weeks, and Fournette last week was their primary runner, goal-line back, and third-down back. He must be considered an RB1 this week.

  • Matthew Stafford - Not only played through his rib injury last week, but he had a few great throws, like his no-look TD pass that was a top-10 throw in the NFL this year. If you need upside, you have to like his chance, as he may even call some of his own plays with HC/play caller Darrell Bevell out. Matt Ryan looked hopeless heading into this matchup last week without Julio Jones, and he put up 356/3. This defense has allowed 25+ FP to QBs in 3 of their last 4 and over the last four weeks QBs are completing 72% of their passes for 354/2.5, so the numbers look promising, and Stafford’s a good bet for at least some garbage time production. Tampa won’t likely have top corner Carlton Davis, which also helps.

  • Marvin Jones - Marvin is getting the ball with 8+ catches and 110+ yards in 2 of his last 3 with 10+ targets in 4 of his last 6. Calvin Ridley lit this defense up last week with 10/163/1 and the Bucs have four different WRs to post 25+ FP in the last four games (Ridley/Tyreek/Woods/Kupp), so Jones is pretty much a must-start. No CB Carlton Davis can’t hurt Jones’ chances.

  • T.J. Hockenson - I don’t know what the hell happened last week, but he’s not a TE you’re sitting. He’s got 50+ receiving yards and/or a TD in 12-of-14 games and the Bucs have given up 12+ FP to TEs in three straight games (Hurst/Irv/Kelce) with 8/68/.5 given up per game the last four weeks, good for a promising 17.9 FPG.

  • D’Andre Swift - Swift’s role grew last week, as expected, and he played 64% of the snaps with 19 touches, 82 yards, and 2 TDs. He did fumble, but they are basically all-in on him the rest of the season. The absence of their HC and play-caller won’t help, and neither will the nasty Bucs run defense that is giving up a league-low 56 rushing yards per game and measly 3.1 YPC (3.3 the last four weeks). The only good news is they are giving up a league-high 6.4 catches per game and 6/34 per game the last four weeks. Swift is most likely going to have to get it done with 4-5 catches in this one.

None of note.


None of note.

San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6)

  • Jeff Wilson - Top guy Raheem Mostert is out, so Wilson will be the main back this week. The matchup isn’t great, but the Cards can certainly be run on, and Wilson can score 1-2 TDs any given week. If he can catch 2-3 balls with Mostert out, he’ll get it done for you most likely (he did have 4 targets last week).

  • Kyler Murray - He’s clearly back to his previous form with 21/76/1 rushing and 650/4 passing with a 9.2 YPA his last two games. He got them for 230/1 passing and 91/1 rushing in the season opener, and the Niners won’t have CB Richard Sherman and likely S/CB Jimmy Ward, which is huge. Kyler should be more than fine.

  • DeAndre Hopkins - He’s been great the last two weeks along with Murray, with 18/305/1 receiving on 22 targets. He had 29 FP in Week 1 in this matchup, and the Niners won’t have CB Richard Sherman and likely S/CB Jimmy Ward, which is huge.

  • Dan Arnold - He has 4 TD his last five games, but the 49ers have been good against the TE (mostly) this year, and he’s questionable still with a back injury, so I’d find another option.

None of note.

  • George Kittle - He’s set to play and while his snaps will likely be limited, I’ll take 65% of Kittle over most TEs this week. He’s playing with his old Iowa QB and roommate in Beathard, so the QB switch isn’t a huge concern. The Cards have given up just three TDs to TEs this season, but I can see Kittle catching 4-5 balls for 50 yards or so. If he does score, then he goes off.

  • Brandon Aiyuk - He’s a machine and has 5+ catches and 17+ FP in each of his last six games. I don’t love him as much as I have with Beathard, but Patrick Peterson is beatable for sure, and he’ll get the ball. But we do have George Kittle back and he will command some targets, so I’m actually not using Aiyuk in DFS this week, for what it’s worth. I’m obviously using him season-long.

  • C.J. Beathard - He will start and it’s debatable if he’s an upgrade over Nick Mullens or not. The Cardinals have given up 20+ FP to 6 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced, and Beathard has a speck of upside due to his running. The matchup is good by the numbers, at least, as the Cards have allowed 335+ passing yards in 3 of their last 4.

  • Kendrick Bourne - Got a late hail mary TD last week, but he’s otherwise been in the mix with 3.5 catches per game and 9.9 FPG the last four weeks. Slot WR Greg Ward had 2 TDs in this matchup last week.

  • Christian Kirk - Kyler did miss him for a potential TD last week, but he’s hard to trust since he hasn’t reached double-digit FP in six straight. He’s also been under 35 yards in four straight. He’s merely a long-shot play at this point, but he can always make a play and/or score.

  • Kenyan Drake - The Drake is back to driving us nuts after he put up only 12/40 total last week with a 50% snap share, and that was despite Chase Edmonds dealing with an ankle injury. Drake had 18/62/1 scrimmage and Edmonds had 9/45/1 against San Francisco in the season opener. Drake’s still getting some targets, at least, but his chances of scoring drop now that Kyler is running again, so he’s just an okay option. There’s always some upside, but he’s also never a lock to do much.

  • Chase Edmonds - He had a 53% touch share last week in this backfield and he had 14 touches with 66/1. Tony Pollard hit the 49ers up for 12/69/2 rushing and 6/63 receiving on nine targets last week, which could bode well for Edmunds. He is still questionable and on the injury report after being limited in practice, so he’s not 100%.

Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

  • Darren Waller - He’s a little volatile this year, but he’s going nuts lately with 23.5 FPG his last five games. It’s a tougher matchup, but Travis Kelce got 8/136/1 in this matchup in Week 14, and the outside WRs have a tougher matchup as well.

  • Myles Gaskin - There’s some risk, but it seems like they did not rush Gaskin back, as he had a chance to play last week, and they have leaned on one primary back when they have a good primary back to lean on. Gaskin has been their best back overall, but Salvon Ahmed has been the better runner, so it’s possible he’s involved. The Raiders are giving up 5.4 YPC to RBs the last four weeks with 27/148 given up on the ground in that span. There’s some downside, but also some upside if they roll with him like they were earlier in the season.

  • Derek Carr - He has no injury designation, so he’s presumably good to go. I still think he’s risky, and the matchup isn’t great against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed just 3 TD passes in the last five weeks. If he has any issues, I think they could put in Marcus Mariota, who looked great last week, so I’d avoid Carr if possible.

  • Nelson Agholor - He has 4+ catches in five straight, but Henry Ruggs should return to get some looks and while the Dolphins are giving up 14.4 YPR to WRs this season, it’s still a tougher matchup for Agholor, who will see a lot of top corners Byron Jones and Xavien Howard.

  • Henry Ruggs - Assuming he’s active, I don’t think you can use him based on his body of work this year. Take away that fluky game-winning TD a couple of weeks ago, and he’s done nothing else.

  • Lynn Bowden - If Jakeem Grant (hamstring) is out, that helps Bowden, obviously. He’s been a bit of a volume weapon for them with 17/158 receiving on 20 targets the last three games. He’s their slot WR, but they move him all over the place.
  • Tua Tagovailoa - The Raiders have given up 2 TD passes in five straight, and even Sam Darnold had a big game in this matchup in Week 13, but Tua is tough to trust with his top receivers all still questionable and GTDs. Tua has posted 16+ FP in three straight, and he has some potential with his legs, but to view him as a QB1 this week is a stretch.

  • DeVante Parker - He’s basically a gametime decision with his hamstring. If he goes, keep in mind that while Parker had 4+ catches and 8+ targets in his last three games, he’s not producing still with Tua and had only 4/35 receiving in his last full game. The matchup is solid, at least, but I’m in no hurry to use Parker if he's active.

  • Mike Gesicki - He was limited all week with his shoulder and will be a gametime call. I’d be inclined to use him if he’s active and I didn’t have a strong option otherwise, since Gesicki had 40+ receiving yards and/or a TD in six straight before the injury. Hunter Henry posted 5/65/1 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week. Do keep in mind they use two other TEs, so Gesicki is a volatile option between the backups being involved and his injury.

  • Josh Jacobs - He’s a fantasy two-face in that he can look great, or kinda bad. He did get 29 touches last week, though, so you have to use him even though he’s not 100% and they have other options. The Dolphins are giving up 130.8 scrimmage yards and .7 TDs per game to RBs, but only 3.7 YPC to RBs the last four weeks. Jacobs has at least remained involved in the passing game.

Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Famer John Hansen has been an industry leader and pioneer since 1995, when he launched Fantasy Guru. His content has been found over the years on ESPN.com, NFL.com, SiriusXM, DirecTV, Yahoo!, among others outlets. In 2015 he sold Fantasy Guru and in 2020 founded FantasyPoints.com.