Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. KC ($6.9K DK | $7.9K FD | Spread: KC -7.0 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Both of these teams will enter this game with a 1-2 record, hungry to even their records. To get an understanding of the floor Jalen Hurts establishes for himself each week, let’s take a look at his rushing line over his first six starts: 18/106/0, 11/63/1, 9/69/0, 7/62/0, 10/82/1, 9/35/0. That averages out to 11 carries, 70 rushing yards, and he’s scored two TDs during those six games. We can essentially count on 9.5 FPs/game elevating Hurts’ floor before a game even begins.
The Bottom Line: The Chiefs are allowing the most pure rushing FPs to QBs (8.3), 31.6 FPs overall over the last two games. It’s nearly a guarantee that we see KC’s offense take their gloves off in this one. I am expecting them to get out ahead early and keep their foot on the gas as long as necessary. Hurts is about as guaranteed to tap into a profit as any on the main slate. But his ownership on DraftKings (DK) does not reflect that likelihood.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS at ATL ($5.9K DK | $7.4K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
How Taylor Heinicke is managing to slide under the DFS radar this week is beyond me, which is refreshing. The Falcons’ defense has been more lenient to ground games, slightly better against the pass, but still have a non-existent pass rush, and are still allowing the seventh-most FPG to entire offenses. And OC Scott Turner is not going to get in the way of Heinicke opening up the offense to prevent his team from adding a third defeat to their ledger. Antonio Gibson will also get some much needed room to get his ground game going if he plays (shin). That will be huge toward freeing the passing game from Atlanta keeping their sub-packages locked onto the field.
The Bottom Line: During his young career, Heinicke ranks seventh-best with 0.40 FPs/dropback (FP/Db), ninth-best with a 103.0 passer rating, and with the second-highest TD rate against a Cover 2. The Dirty Birds are using the highest rate of Cover 2 in the NFL. I’m not recommending that you set Heinicke exposure to 80%, but you simply cannot seriously attack large-field tournament action without Heinicke stacks headlining some lineups.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Russell Wilson, SEA at SF ($7.1K DK | *$7.7K FD *| Spread: SEA -3.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. SEA ($5.6K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: SEA -3.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Ryan Tannehill, TEN at NYJ ($6.3K DK | $7.5K FD | Spread: TEN -6.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Jameis Winston, NO vs. NYG ($5.6K DK | $6.9K FD | Spread: NO -7.0 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Running Backs
Zack Moss, BUF vs. HOU ($5.3K DK | $6.0K FD | Spread: BUF -17.0 | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn: 5-6%)
Perhaps I’m watching game footage from the wrong Buffalo Bills. Yes, Zack Moss was a healthy inactive in Week 1. As far as the age rate of the NFL timeline is concerned, Week 1 took place around six months ago. Whatever message was intended by the Bills for leaving Moss on the pine, it has been received inside everything that makes this youngster tick. He played better last week than at any time since taking his first NFL snap.
The pool of difference-making NFL RBs is extremely small. A total of 72 RBs took a handoff in Week 1, 74 in Week 2, and 72 in Week 3 — 218 total. Over those three weeks, 93 RBs were provided with at least 10 carries. Only 5.5% (12) of all 218 RBs to have carried the ball in a game have managed to rush for at least 100 yards. Only 3.2% of those 218 have scored more than two rushing TDs in a single game. Only 12.9% of those 93 provided at least 10 carries have gone over 100 yards, while only 7.5% have scored twice with those attempts.
Derrick Henry stands as the only RB this season to go over 100 and score multiple TDs (35/182/3 in Week 2). That means you have a 1-in-217 chance (0.46%) to roster a RB out of the entire pool and see them go for 100 and 2. If you were somehow able to know the exact identities of RBs receiving at least 10 carries, you would still have a 1-in-91 chance to see them achieve the feat. And zero RBs have gone for over 100 rushing yards (or) have scored at least two rushing TDs in more than one game.
The Bottom Line: Moss has not gone over 100 yards yet this season. But he did score two goal-line TDs in Week 2. Moss ranks second among all RBs with 2.5 carries/game inside the five. Moss has five carries inside the five compared to 21 total carries. Buffalo is currently favored by over two TDs (17). The Texans allow the 11th-most FPs to RBs (26.3), fueled by the second-most rushing TDs allowed/game (2). Poor weather + positive game script + all goal-line carries + around an even split in RB receiving work + 5.3K/6.0K pricing = just about the best guarantee provided by a RB this season.
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL vs. WAS ($4.9K DK | $6.0K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
It’s now clear that no player has been more overlooked in DFS than Cordarrelle Patterson. Perhaps “overlooked” is not the universal word to describe what’s happening. For a lot of folks, “ignored” would likely be more fitting. And it’s an entirely understandable reaction to someone who, in the past, consistently let you down. Patterson let Minnesota down the moment they drafted him with the 29th pick of the 2013 draft. It cost them a second, third, fourth and seventh round picks to even get that first. He provided the Vikings with 1,596 yards before Minny let him walk four seasons later. I understand the pain he has caused you. But his recent play cannot go overlooked any further. We must leave the past behind.
Patterson currently leads all RBs with 1.36 FPs/touch and 3.92 YPRR. He might only see 12 touches/game, but he still leads all RBs in touch rate when he’s on the field. Whereas Washington has limited opposing RBs to the seventh-fewest FPG (16.5), Patterson aligns enough outside of the tackles to take advantage of the Football Team giving the go-ahead to the second-most FPG to opposing WR units.
The Bottom Line: You never thought reading this column would come with free therapy. I was also burned by Patterson in the past. But I chose to free myself of that burden, rostering him to a nice profit last week. I encourage you to do the same.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Kareem Hunt, CLE at MIN ($6.0K DK | $6.4K FD | Spread: CLE -2.0 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Antonio Gibson, WAS at ATL ($6.1K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Nyheim Hines, IND at MIA ($4.9K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: MIA -2.0 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Tony Pollard DAL vs. CAR ($5.7K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: DAL -4.5 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Trey Sermon, SF vs. SEA ($5.0K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: SEA -3.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Royce Freeman, CAR at DAL ($4.7K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: DAL -4.5 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin, WAS at ATL ($6.9K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 5-6%)
A lineup headlined by Taylor Heinicke would not be complete without a Terry McLaurin stack. But F1 McLaurin is heading into a spot where he is more than good enough to roll out naked. The appeal of McLaurin is new to this season due to a Cover 2 standing as Heinicke’s specialty. Prior to this season, an opponent would need to field a high enough volume of Cover 1 or Cover 3 before we would get too excited about Scary Terry exposure. Funny how a shiny new QB toy can open up possibilities for an established stud.
The Bottom Line: The last time we saw the Heinicke-McLaurin combo face off with a Cover 2-heavy defense, they hooked up for a 11/107/1 line on the Giants. McLaurin’s ownership might slip just north of 5%, but he is still going to be vastly underowned on the main slate.
Christian Kirk, ARI at LAR ($5.3K DK | $6.0K FD | Spread: LAR -4.0 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Everyone needs to begin paying more attention to Christian Kirk. He’s a clear problem and he’s taken his game to another level from the WR we saw in previous seasons. It just so happens that Kirk's emergence coincides right alongside Kyler Murray’s massive early breakout this season. Kirk will likely avoid Jalen Ramsey this week since his focus will be on continuing to shadow DeAndre Hopkins — something he’s done since his rookie season in Jacksonville. And Kirk has done his absolute best work against the split-safety schemes the Rams feature.
The Bottom Line: Three games into the season, Kirk is generating 0.644 FP/Rt (seventh-best), 18.0 FPG (16th), 14.1 YPT (seventh), and 3.03 YPRR (seventh). Over the last three seasons, Kirk has run 16% of his total routes against a Cover 4. He’s turned that work into 20% of his receptions, 22% of his yardage, and 21% of his TDs. Against Cover 6 over the same stretch, Kirk has flipped 8% of his total routes into 10% of his yardage, and 14% of his total TDs. Vegas is calling for plenty of scoring from this game. It’s not going to come on the ground for Arizona. Ramsey will see to it that it doesn’t come from Nuk. Murray is going to push plenty of volume Kirk’s way on Sunday.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. IND ($4.9K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: MIA -2.0 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
We are still pulling numbers into Jaylen Waddle’s profile. And we need far more than three game’s worth against NFL defenses before we can begin to reliably predict optimal opportunities for exposure. However, Waddle is seeing a ton of volume for a rookie. Volume is key this week since the Colts split their time between top-10 rates of Cover 2 and Cover 3, mixed with top-15 rates of Cover 1 and Cover 6. Reading Indy’s scheme rotation is very difficult on QBs, so it is very likely that we’ll see Jacoby Brissett continue to look Waddle’s way on Sunday after packaging 13 targets at him last week.
The Bottom Line: The Colts have considerable issues on offense, particularly the health along the O-line. But we can still expect them to combine with Miami to keep the pace at a maximum — fifth-most combined plays/game on the slate. And Miami has passed the ball at the league’s fourth-highest rate (69.5%). It might not be a high-scoring affair, but Indy is surrendering the eighth-most FPG to receivers out of the slot (27.5), and the majority of the field is not expected to trust that Waddle’s involvement will continue.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. SEA ($5.0K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: SEA -3.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
After all of the press surrounding Trent Sherfield outplaying Brandon Aiyuk for the starting role, it took all of two games for Aiyuk to correct the situation. And one of the unintended consequences of Aiyuk’s donut in Week 1 is a population of salty DFS participants turning a cold shoulder at the sophomore WR. Make no mistake, Deebo Samuel is by far the WR1 in the 49ers’ offense. All of the numbers, pretty much every snap of footage from this season support that fact. However, Jimmy Garoppolo will need more than Deebo if he is going to keep up with an angry Seattle offense scratching-and-clawing to avoid a third-straight loss.
The Bottom Line: If you want supporting numbers in favor of rostering a San Francisco WR, you want Samuel. If you want a contrarian ‘9er wideout that will serve to differentiate your lineup, you want Aiyuk.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
Adam Thielen, MIN vs. CLE ($6.8K DK | *$7.5K FD *| Spread: CLE -2.0 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)
Diontae Johnson, PIT at GB ($6.2K DK | $7.0K FD | Spread: GB -6.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Marquise Brown, BAL at DEN ($5.2K DK | $K FD | Spread: BAL -1.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Tim Patrick, DEN vs. BAL ($4.9K DK | $6.1K FD | Spread: BAL -1.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at NYJ ($3.2K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: TEN -6.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL vs. WAS ($4.1K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Braxton Berrios, NYJ vs. TEN ($3.7K DK | $4.7K FD | Spread: TEN -6.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Anthony Miller, HOU at BUF ($3.7K DK | $5.2K FD | Spread: BUF -17.0 | O/U: 47.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)
Deonte Harris, NO vs. NYG ($3.5K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: NO -7.0 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Kadarius Toney, NYG at NO ($3.3K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: NO -7.0 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)
Tight Ends
Tommy Tremble, CAR at DAL ($2.5K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: DAL -4.5 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Let me be entirely upfront here: Tommy Tremble is about the furthest option from a sure thing as it gets. If you want guarantees, you want Travis Kelce. And I will be investing heavily in Kelce this weekend. But I will also be pivoting away from Zeus in a good amount of my large-field GPP lineups. But the mid-priced options at TE are not that great this week. It’s either Kelce or punt.
The Bottom Line: Tremble caught a 30-yard pass and took a handoff for a score last week. Not long after, Carolina traded Dan Arnold to Jacksonville. If a 3-0 team feels strongly enough in featuring a rookie TE, he is good enough to be trusted as a complete punt in a few lineups to provide us with some salary relief.
Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. IND ($4.0K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: MIA -2.0 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
The cat’s already out of the bag. I’m going big (Kelce), or I’m sending in the punter with my TE selections this week. But it could end up as a decision I regret if Mike Gesicki repeats his performance from last week (10/86/0 line on 12 targets). That receiving line is proof enough that Brissett trusts him. And trust is difficult to come by from a backup QB forced into a featured role for an extended period of time.
The Bottom Line: Three factors stand in the way of Gesicki: Darius Leonard, Khari Willis, and not knowing whether last week’s volume was entirely the product of game script. As optimistic as I was during the offseason that we might see the year of the TE, over half of the individuals I had hoped would emerge as considerable threats have failed to do much in the early going. It’s unfortunate, but we can still look outside of Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and T.J. Hockenson when the matchups/opportunities are just right. Waiting for the rest of the field to see if Gesicki's volume is legit is not going to bring in the profits. We will need to invest this week when the unknowns are still on the table.
Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*Mark Andrews, BAL at DEN ($5.3K DK *| $6.5K FD | Spread: BAL -1.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)**
Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. KC ($4.8K DK | $6.0K FD | Spread: SEA -3.0 | O/U: 52.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)
Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Logan Thomas, WAS at ATL ($4.9K DK | *$5.8K FD *| Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
*Robert Tonyan, GB vs. PIT ($4.5K DK *| $5.5K FD | Spread: GB -6.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)**
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans, TEN at NYJ ($3.9K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: TEN -6.5 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)
Washington Football Team, WAS at ATL ($3.5K DK | $4.0K FD | Spread: WAS -1.5 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)
Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)
*New Orleans Saints, NO vs. NYG ($3.8K DK *| $4.8K FD | Spread: NO -7.0 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)**
Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)
Detroit Lions, DET at CHI ($2.2K DK | *$4.1K FD *| Spread: CHI -3.0 | O/U: 41.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)
