2025 Week 7 DFS Coverage Shells

I hope you’ve all had a good week! In this week’s article, I will cover games on the Sunday main slate, identifying the most lucrative matchups based on market totals, passing matchups, coverage tendencies, player usage, and more.

The following teams are on a bye in Week 7:

• Baltimore Ravens

• Buffalo Bills

The Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars kick off at 9:30 AM EDT on Sunday at Wembley Stadium in England. Even though this is a Sunday game, I'd just like to clarify it’s not a part of the main slate.

With that out of the way, let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

The following chart shows defensive composite rankings against the run and against the pass, pulling from an array of team metrics to get the final result. Each quadrant goes as follows:

• Top Right: Good Run D / Good Pass D

• Bottom Right: Good Run D / Weak Pass D

• Bottom Left: Weak Run D / Weak Pass D

• Top Left: Weak Run D / Good Pass D

For DFS passing/receiving matchups, exploiting defenses in the bottom quadrants offers a path of lesser resistance.

Team Offenses

NO @ CHI

The New Orleans Saints (1-5) travel north to battle the Chicago Bears (3-2) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday, The Bears are currently 5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 46.5 points.

This game has the 3rd-highest total on the Sunday main slate and CHI is tied for 4th at a 25.75 implied team total.

Defensively, CHI allows 0.72 fantasy points per dropback to opposing QBs (worst in NFL) and NO allows 0.66 points per dropback (4th-worst).

Both defenses also struggle with rushing the passer:

Since I began writing up this game earlier in the week, moderate rain has crept into the weather forecast. This is important to monitor as it can really impact the passing matchups if it get’s too extreme, but for now it’s tolerable and the markets haven’t overreacted.

The Saints are coming off a 25-19 loss vs the Patriots, while the Bears are coming off a 25-24 buzzer beater victory at the Commanders on MNF.

This game features a matchup between sophomore QBs Caleb Williams ($5,800), who is priced as the main slate QB9 on DK, and Spencer Rattler ($4,800), who is priced as the QB16.

Bears DC Dennis Allen was previously the Saints HC and got fired during the 2024 regular season, so there’s some familiarity between Allen vs Rattler in this matchup.

Let’s take a look at the relevant pass catchers:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

CHI WR DJ Moore ($5,200) went to the hospital following last week’s game at WAS. He didn’t travel back to Chicago with the team and instead stayed overnight at the hospital due to an injury. He’s been limited in practice.

Rome Odunze ($6,600) is priced as the DK WR4 on the main slate. On the season, Rome Odunze ranks top ten at the position both in expected PPG based on volume (16.3) and actual PPG (17.6).

With DJ Moore potentially out for this contest, Rome Odunze is a strong play based on his usage and the CHI team total alone. I’d also consider one of the two CHI rookie pass catchers, WR Luther Burden ($4,300) or TE Colston Loveland ($3,100), with DJ Moore sidelined.

CHI ranks 6th in early down 12 personnel usage (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) at 40%, and rank 28th in usage on late downs at 4%. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are the primary WRs on the field in these 2WR sets. Without Moore, it potentially opens up more concentrated snaps in less “expected pass situations” for Luther Burden to take advantage of.

Colston Loveland and TE Cole Kmet ($3,200) are already out there for most of the 12 personnel work anyways, so these particular snaps don’t really tell us much about how they’re getting on the field. However, leading up to the bye in Week 5, Colston Loveland was on the field for 21% of the team’s third-down snaps. This jumped from 21% between Weeks 1-4 to 70% during last week’s game at WAS. Conversely, Cole Kmet went from 88% third-down usage prior to the bye to 30% in last week’s game at WAS.

If you’re considering playing Rome Odunze this week, it’s probably also worth it to pair up Caleb Williams with him and even one of Luther Burden or Colston Loveland at their respective costs.

Defensively, CHI ranks 9th in man coverage rate (32%) and 11th in usage of two-high shells (54%).

NO WR Chris Olave ($5,400) is priced as the DK WR18 on the main slate. Olave is the NFL WR1 in expected PPG based on volume (20.0) but the WR28 in actual PPG (13.5).

Olave owns a comfortable team-leading target share both against man coverage and against two-high shells:

The frustrating thing for Olave fantasy owners has been the inability to convert opportunities into actual fantasy points. The Saints are rarely playing up with a cozy lead, and they rank top five in plays per game offensively. Even without being a pass-heavy offense, the volume/opportunities is a built-in feature of those variables.

Having said that, there’s a particular defensive matchup data point vs CHI that could help Olave actually turn water into wine and score real points..

Here is the Bears’ rolling blitz percentage on defense:

• Through Week 1 → 25%

• Through Week 2 → 23%

• Through Week 3 → 28%

• Through Week 4 → 32%

• Week 5 Bye

• Through Week 6 → 36%

Their 36% overall blitz rate ranks 6th among defenses through Week 6.. CHI lost their first two games of the season, blitzing at a 23% clip in those two combined losses. But CHI has won all of their last three straight games and have blitzed at a 43% clip throughout their current win streak.

Spencer Rattler owns the highest PFF Offensive Grade (90.5) when blitzed this season out of 35 qualifying QBs, and a 65.2 grade when not blitzed, which ranks 26th among those same qualifiers.

Rattler ranks 9th in fantasy points per dropback when blitzed (0.65) and 32nd when not blitzed (0.35). He owns a 0% turnover-worthy throw rate when blitzed (tied for the best) and a 4.5% turnover-worthy throw rate when not blitzed (tied for the worst).

Here is Chris Olave’s expected fantasy points per route run (XFPRR) and actual fantasy points per route run (FPRR) on dropbacks with a blitz vs without a blitz:

Blitz:

• 0.76 XFPRR

• 0.81 FPRR

No Blitz:

• 0.54 XFPRR

• 0.29 FPRR

As you can see, Rattler and Olave have been efficient against the blitz (Olave converting volume into actual fantasy points), but not so when there isn’t a blitz.

Given the CHI defensive tendencies and potential bad weather, I wonder if this could come into play on Sunday.

WAS @ DAL

The Washington Commanders (3-3) get set to take on the Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) at 4:25 PM EDT on Sunday. The Commanders are currently 2-point road favorites and the game total is at a whopping 54.5 points.

This is the highest game total in all of Week 7. WAS (28.25) as well as DAL (26.25) are two of the top three highest projected scoring teams on the main slate.

Both squads are coming off game-ending field goal losses. WAS lost 25-24 in the final seconds vs CHI, while DAL lost 30-27 in the final seconds at CAR.

DAL ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA/play (.187) and WAS ranks 8th (.104).

Jayden Daniels ($6,900) is priced as the DK QB2 on the Sunday main slate and Dak Prescott ($6,500) is priced as the QB4.

DAL ranks 1st among offenses in EPA/play (.187) but ranks 32nd defensively in EPA/play allowed (.197). Dak Prescott is averaging 40+ dropbacks per game, which is insane for fantasy volume.

Jayden Daniels has played in 4 of the team’s 6 games, missing Weeks 3-4 due to a knee sprain.

WAS WR Terry McLaurin hasn’t played since Week 3 due to a quad injury and a return isn’t looking promising this Sunday:

WR Deebo Samuel ($6,200) is priced as the DK WR7 on the main slate. Samuel didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday:

DAL WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) hasn’t played since Week 3, stemming from an ankle injury, but is trending towards a full return this Sunday:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

Defensively, WAS ranks 10th in single-high usage (57%).

DAL WR George Pickens ($7,300) has feasted with CeeDee Lamb out. However, in their two fully healthy games together, Lamb was the clear top target vs single-high looks:

From 2023-2025, Lamb has averaged 3.30 yards per route run vs single-high looks compared to 1.93 vs two-high looks.

Lamb is priced as the WR2 on the main slate, and Pickens is priced as the WR3. They’re both expensive centerpieces to a lineup, so based on the coverage matchu,p Lamb gets the nod, assuming he’s not on a pitch count.

WAS TE Zach Ertz ($3,800) is priced as the TE12 on the main slate. He is the TE16 on the season in expected PPG (9.0) and the TE17 in actual PPG (10.4).

Zach Ertz is a high upside and low floor pass catcher in this offense, even without Terry McLaurin. Ertz is tied with Deebo Samuel for the highest team red zone target share (24%) and has been pretty reliant on touchdowns for fantasy prowess throughout his time in WAS.

Should McLaurin and Samuel not play this weekend, WR Luke McCaffrey ($4,100), WR Jaylin Lane ($3,800), and WR Chris Moore ($3,000) become massive potential beneficiaries.

Over the last two games with Jayden Daniels back from injury, Chris Moore is the only other Commander not named Deebo Samuel or Zach Ertz to run a route on >50% of the team’s dropbacks. Moore is also comfortably 3rd on the team in first-read target share during this timeframe:

Defensively, DAL ranks 2nd in zone coverage usage (86%) and ranks 6th in usage of two-high shells (59%).

Deebo Samuel owns a 27% first-read target share vs zone, while Zach Ertz is at 20%. However, against two-high defenses, Ertz clears Samuel with a 35% first-read target share (Samuel 32%). Ertz ranks 2nd out of 117 qualifiers in fantasy points per route run vs two-high defenses this season (0.87).

IND @ LAC

The Indianapolis Colts (5-1) travel west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) at 4:05 PM EDT on Sunday. The Chargers are currently 1.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 48.5 points. The game total is the 2nd-highest on the main slate.

IND is coming off a 31-27 home victory vs ARI, while LA is coming off a 29-27 road win at MIA.

This won’t be the first time IND plays in SoFi Stadium this season. Their only loss happened there in Week 4 vs the LAR. In that game, IND dropped a season low of 20 points. In their five wins, IND has averaged 34.8 PPG.

Justin Herbert ($6,400) is priced as the QB5 on the main slat,e and Daniel Jones ($6,000) is priced as the QB8.

This game features two defenses that are better against the pass than they are against the run, but the game total, quality of offenses, and other variables make this game still worth considering from a passing lens.

Those “other variables” are ongoing injuries at critical positions:

For the Chargers, LT Joe Alt hasn’t played since Week 4 due to an ankle injury. He was a limited participant for Thursday’s practice and could play on Sunday.

LAC has averaged 0.21 EPA/dropback with Joe Alt on the field vs -0.13 EPA/dropback without him. 12% of all pass attempts were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage with Alt and that has jumped to 22% without him.

Joe Alt coming back could bode well for the offense as a whole, and in particular, the designed downfield passing game.

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

IND WRs Josh Downs ($4,800) and Ashton Dulin ($3,000) have not practiced and likely won’t play on Sunday. Downs has led the team with a 23% target share over their last two games.

LAC WR Quentin Johnston ($5,900) is priced as the WR10 on the main slate, just behind teammate Ladd McConkey ($6,000), who is priced as the WR9. Johnston missed last week’s game at MIA due to a hamstring injury, but has been a limited participant in practice and is trending towards playing.

IND has seen quite a depleted secondary over the first six weeks of the season. CB Xavien Howard retired following the game vs LAR, CB Charvarius Ward didn’t play in last week’s game vs ARI and hasn’t practiced this week due to a concussion, and slot CB Kenny Moore hasn’t played since Week 3 due to an achilles injury (although he’s practiced this week).

IND allows the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing WRs this season (+8.8).

Defensively, IND ranks 12th in man usage (29%). IND is above average in both Cover 1 and Cover 2 usage, deploying them on a combined 40% of their coverage snaps.

Ladd McConkey leads the team with a 26% target share vs Cover 1/2. McConkey has run 61% of his routes out of the slot this season.

When IND is in Cover 1/2, 40% of opposing targets go to pass catchers lined up in the slot, 5th-most among defenses.

McConkey’s highest scoring games have come in each of the last two weeks. Quentin Johnston is coming off a hamstring injury, so the negligible price difference leans more towards the hot hand in McConkey.

As for the LAC defensively, they rank 7th in zone usage (79%) and rank 12th in two-high usage (54%). More specifically, LAC deploys Cover 3 and Cover 4 on a combined 59% of their coverage snaps.

IND TE Tyler Warren ($5,200) is priced as the TE3 on the main slate. Without Josh Downs, Warren could eat up more of the slot opportunities.

Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Warren dominates his teammates in target share combined with efficiency:

81% of IND’s targets have gone to the first-read, highest among all offenses this season. For LAC, 76% of opponents’ targets have gone to the first-read, which is the 4th-highest among defenses.

Tyler Warren owns a sub-10% first-read target share vs man but nearly a 30% share vs zone. LAC ranks 7th in zone usage defensively (79%):