Happy Thanksgiving! Hopefully you eat well and bet even better.
I’ve been running hot on props – we’re 83-57 (59% hit rate) over the last six weeks – but this has been a brutal year thus far with game picks. Late injury / COVID news has been killer over the last month or so.
Let’s keep it rolling…
Panthers at Dolphins OVER 42 points (-110, PointsBet)
If you’re looking for the sneakiest shootout game of the week, this is it. These two sides combine for the third-best adjusted pace / play volume on offense and could end up being even faster if the Panthers have to chase the Dolphins. Over the last eight weeks, the Panthers are the fifth-fastest team to the line of scrimmage in between plays when trailing (24.1).
Thanksgiving Day Games
Bet – Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet & -118, FOXBet)
Why? – No A-Rob again. Andy Dalton threw 23 passes in relief of Justin Fields. 10 of those 23 passes were directed at Darnell Mooney (43% target share). We have Mooney projected for 75 yards.
Bet – Under 31.5 receiving yards (-112, SuperBook)
Why? – Has either gone catchless or held under 32 receiving yards in four of his last six games. Sunk to third among the Lions WRs in routes last week. Goff stinks.
Bet – Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM & -115, DK)
Why? – Raiders have been really strong against boundary WRs and the deep pass all year, so opponents are just funneling action to the middle of the field to TEs. Vegas is facing the second-most targets (9.1) and allowing the second-most yards (72.8) per game to TEs.
Bet – Under 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – This is a massive total for Zeke considering he’s totaled 73, 76, 56, and 68 rushing + receiving yards over his last four games. Still dealing with the knee issue on a short week.
Bet – Under 37.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM & -110, DK & -112, SuperBook)
Why? – Has been held under this total in five-straight games. Callaway runs 80% of his routes out wide, so he’s going to see a ton of Tre White and Levi Wallace – who are limiting opposing outside WRs to the sixth-fewest YPG.
Bet – Under 32.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120, BetMGM & -120, DK)
Why? – Fell to third on the depth chart behind Breida and Singletary last week. Has 24, 27, and 5 scrimmage yards over his last three games. We have Moss projected for just 17 rushing + receiving yards.
Bet – Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Cashed some Beasley unders last week, but am on the over here. Practiced in full for the first time in weeks on Wednesday. If he’s right, he could shred this Saints secondary that is giving up the second-most YPG to slot WRs (122.1). We have Beasley projected for 46 yards.
Sunday / Monday Games
Bet – Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – Has 7+ targets in three of his last four games, Steelers giving up the 10th-most YPG to slot WRs (99.1). Fellow slot WRs Jarvis Landry (65 yards), Amon Ra St. Brown (61), and Keenan Allen (112) have all cruised to nice games in this spot in recent weeks.
Bet – Under 35.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM & -115, DK & -115, SuperBook)
Why? – Grabbed this on three different books. This is a massive total for Pascal, who has 1, 2, and 1 targets in the three full games that TY Hilton has played. We have Pascal projected for just 21 yards.
Bet – Under 50.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – This is a huge total for Gage who has crossed 50 yards just twice in 7 games this year.
Bet – Anytime TD (+140, SuperBook)
Why? – Juicy odds for the ultimate cheat code near the goal line.
Bet – Under 80.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Way too big of a total for the worst starting RB in football.
Bet – Under 57.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Titans are the biggest underdogs on the slate, so trailing game-script likely. Dontrell Hilliard is the hurry-up back – not Foreman. We have Foreman projected for just 47 scrimmage yards.
Bet – Under 55.5 receiving yards (-125 FOXBet)
Why? – Massive total for Meyers considering he hasn’t topped 49 yards in six-straight games. Patriots are huge favorites and will run all day long if they build a lead.
Bet – Under 30.5 pass attempts (-121, PointsBet)
Why? – Over the last month, only the Eagles (72%) are more run-heavy on early-downs than the Patriots (61%) and Jones is averaging just 25.5 pass attempts per game in this span.
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (-105, FOXBet)
Why? – Too short of odds. Toney out, Shepard out, Rudolph out. Eagles giving up the most receptions per game to TEs (7.5). We have Engram projected for 4.5 catches.
Bet – Under 51.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Will lock up with the best slot CB in the game in Chris Harris this week.
Bet – Over 13.5 carries (-110, BetMGM & -110, SuperBook)
Why? – Workload has been game-script dependent. Henderson is averaging 16.2 carries per game in wins but just 10.3 in losses. Rams have moved to -2 favorites over Packers.
Bet – Over 10.5 receiving yards (-120, FOXBet & -125, PointsBet)
Why? – Ran a season-high 18 routes last week. Averaging 20.5 YPG without Robert Tonyan. We have Deguara projected for 22 yards.
Bet – Over 66.5 receiving yards (-112, SuperBook & -115, BetMGM)
Why? – No Haden, we have Chase projected for 75 yards.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+135, PointsBet)
Why? – Has 8, 4, 8, and 8 targets with 4+ catches in his four full games this year. Colts giving up the fourth-most receptions per game to TEs (6.0).
ROI THIS SEASON
– Game Picks -32.4% (Overall: 14-18)
– Player Props +12.9% (Overall: 118-85)
– Total ROI +5.5%