Welcome to Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
There are six teams on bye – Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks.
Good luck this week!
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (TNF)
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – Hasn’t scored a TD in five straight games, but has piled up 30/484 receiving in this span.
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – The QB7 by fantasy points per game (19.9), Herbert is a mid range starter in Week 8. The Vikings have faced an easy slate of QBs (Michael Penix, Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, and Dillon Gabriel) wedged in between two 24 FP games from Caleb Williams (Week 1) and Jalen Hurts (Week 7).
Kimani Vidal – While his box score (13 touches, 35 yards) wasn’t impressive, Vidal’s Week 7 workload was. He ranked RB12 in snaps (65%) and was RB21 by expected fantasy points last week. Hasaan Haskins is out with an injury. Vidal projects like a RB2 in this spot.
Ladd McConkey – Since everyone panicked in Week 4 after his one catch game vs. the Giants, McConkey has held strong as a good WR2 with 21/206/2 receiving (on 31 targets). McConkey has earned 21%, 24%, and 26% of the targets in this span.
Keenan Allen – Now up to WR15 in fantasy points per game after hammering the Colts last week. He remains a great WR2, especially in PPR leagues. Allen is pacing towards another 100 reception season.
Jordan Addison – Still underrated. No one has been able to cover him yet. In their last 14 games together (including playoffs), Jefferson has put up 89/1273/5 receiving (14.4 Half-PPR FPG) while Addison has 70/956/9 receiving (13.2 FPG). In their three games together this season, Addison has actually out-targeted Jefferson on a per route basis (0.28 to 0.21) when facing zone coverages. The Chargers deploy the seventh-most zone (79%).
Oronde Gadsden – The rookie Gadsden’s route share continues to increase every week (28% > 43% > 53% > 69% > 79%). Because the position is so thin, he’s quickly gone from a stash/streamer to an every-week top-12 option. Since he’s running 51% of his routes lined up in the slot, Gadsden is basically a WR that you can play at TE. He’s turned his 17 targets into 14/232/1 receiving over the last two weeks, earning at least 15% of the looks in both games.
FLEX Plays
Quinten Johnston – Has cooled off a bit with 12% and 9% of the targets in his last two games. In theory, this matchup favors the Chargers underneath receivers because the Vikings play a league-high rate of two-high safety coverage (70%).
Jordan Mason – Has turned into a TD or bust RB2/FLEX. Aaron Jones (hamstring) is close to returning, too. Mason has topped 10 receiving yards once in six games. The Vikings are installed as +3.5 road underdogs, so they may need to lean more on their passing attack this week. On paper, this is a good matchup. The Chargers rank sixth-worst by YPC and success rate allowed on the ground.
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Jones – After missing for games with a hamstring injury, Jones is eligible to return off of I.R.
TJ Hockenson – In his last 14 games with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson has turned his 82 targets into 62/639/1 receiving (7.2 Half-PPR FPG | TE20).
Carson Wentz – Keep starting him in SuperFlex. Wentz has weekly finishes of QB13, QB9, QB24, and QB19 this season.
Hasaan Haskins – Out with a hamstring injury.
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase – That’s more like it. In two games with Joe Flacco, the Bengals have made Chase the focal point. He’s earned a massive 38% of the targets, piling up 26/255/2 receiving in the process. According to our Fantasy Points Data, 86% of Chase’s targets have been charted as catchable, which is typically where he’s at with Burrow under center. Wheels up.
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – Was dragged down by the Jets disaster last week, turning his 13 touches into 52 yards. Hall got rolled up on by a defender and seemed to tweak his knee, but he was able to return to the game. I’m not sure how much matchups matter with this awful offense, but this is a great one. Cincinnati allows the third-most yards per game (130.1) on the ground.
Tee Higgins – He’s been out-targeted by a 35 to 16 margin over the last two weeks, but it matters little with the QB upgrade. Higgins has 158 yards in his last two games. He had 158 yards in Weeks 1-5 combined. With six teams on a bye, Higgins projects as a low-end WR2.
FLEX Plays
Chase Brown – It only took seven weeks, but Brown finally showed his first signs of life with 11/108 rushing vs. Steelers. He’s still adding little as a receiver, though. He’s turned his 28 targets into a pathetic 94 yards of offense this season. This is an ideal spot for him to get his first TD since Week 1. The Bengals are -6.5 favorites on Sunday.
Stream ‘Em
Joe Flacco – Has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game across his two starts with the Bengals. With six teams out on bye, Flacco is elevated as a good streaming option for 1-QB leagues. The Jets deploy the seventh-most man coverage (34%), which is great for the receivers. Their defensive line is 10th-worst in pressure rate, which is great for Flacco.
Mason Taylor – This is another ideal matchup for Taylor, but after seeing the Jets lay another egg last week, it’s impossible to trust him. Josh Reynolds led the Jets in targets (9) last week, but only managed 3/29 receiving. Taylor earned fewer looks (5) but slightly outproduced (3/31 receiving) Reynolds. Taylor is only in play as a low-end streaming TE this week against this Bengals secondary that’s allowing a league-high 76.5 yards per game to the position.
Sit ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – Set to miss another game with a knee injury. The Jets are on bye in Week 9.
Noah Fant – With Mike Gesicki (pec) out, we saw Fant run a season-high 74% of the routes last week. I’m hesitant that Flacco can support three weekly options in the pass game, but Fant is at least on the board as a desperation streamer. He’s earned between 4-5 targets in 5-of-6 games.
Josh Reynolds
Tyrod Taylor – The Jets are turning to Taylor because Justin Fields continues to hold the ball way too long. The thing is, Taylor has actually been worse than Fields! The Jets are in QB hell. Taylor has averaged 3.2 adjusted net passing yards per attempt, which factors in negative plays like INTs and sacks. Justin Fields’ ANY/A is 4.8.
Stash ‘Em
Isaiah Davis
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
Josh Allen
James Cook – He’s averaging 22.8 PPR points per game in wins this season. Buffalo enters Carolina as big -7.5 road favorites.
Start ‘Em
Tetairoa McMillan – Through seven games, McMillan is only WR35 by fantasy points per game. His volume (7.3 targets per game) is WR2-worthy. I’m a little bit optimistic that he’ll see slightly improved QB play this week. Over the last three seasons, Andy Dalton (5.5) has been more efficient than Bryce Young (4.4) by adjusted net yards per pass attempt (INTs and sacks penalized).
Dalton Kincaid – After he missed Week 6 with an oblique injury, Kincaid returned to limited practice on Wednesday out of the bye. He’s still a part-time player and only ranks TE28 in route share, but when he’s on the field, he gets the ball. Kincaid is TE3 by targets per route run (0.24). This is an awesome matchup against a Panthers secondary that allows the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends (67.9).
FLEX Plays
Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard – Carolina went with a full-blown rotation last week with Hubbard back in the mix. Dowdle led the way by a slight margin in carries, while Hubbard was more involved on passing downs. We’ll see how long that lasts. Dowdle is completely outplaying Hubbard. While Rico Dowdle is averaging 3.2 yards after contact and 0.16 missed tackles forced on a per carry basis, Hubbard has been one of the least efficient RBs (1.8 YAC, zero missed tackles forced). I prefer Dowdle for the rest of the season. For Week 8, both Panthers RBs are in play as RB2/FLEX options.
Fantasy Points Data: Week 7 Bell Cow Report
Khalil Shakir – Led the Bills in target share with 23%, 29%, and 19% in their three games before the bye. As always, Shakir is on the board as a low-end WR3/FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Keon Coleman – Has just 16/125/1 receiving over his last five games since his big Week 1 performance (8/112/1 vs. Ravens). Josh Palmer (ankle) is likely going to be out, but the Bills divvy up targets to such a degree that it really doesn’t boost Coleman’s projection that much.
Andy Dalton – Only in play in SuperFlex leagues. Bryce Young (ankle) is set to miss time.
Jalen Coker – Ran a route on just 44% of the pass plays in his first game back off of I.R. Until he gets ramped up, Coker remains a bench stash.
Xavier Legette
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey
Start ‘Em
George Kittle – Was able to play his usual full-time role (82% of snaps) and was a huge factor blocking in the run game last week, but Kittle unfortunately didn’t do anything in the box score. You’re going right back to him in lineups.
FLEX Plays
Woody Marks – The Texans did give Marks a bump in his role out of the bye. Marks vastly out-snapped Nick Chubb (61% to 26%) and tripled him up by expected fantasy points. In his two starts with more than 50% of the snaps, Marks has been pretty good as a receiver (7/70/2 receiving on 11 targets). With the Texans installed as slight home favorites (-1.5), this is a good spot to play Marks as a RB2/FLEX.
Jauan Jennings – It seems like the slew of injuries is finally behind him. Jennings was the 49ers lead WR last week by route share (85%) and target share (27%). Unfortunately, this is another pretty brutal matchup. Houston is allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing outside wide receivers. He projects as a low-end WR3/FLEX.
Stream ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – The Texans are down Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring), which elevates Schultz as the best streaming TE play on the slate. The 49ers just allowed 7/62 receiving to Kyle Pitts last week without eraser LB Fred Warner.
Sit ‘Em
Nico Collins – Sustained a concussion on MNF. With this being a short week, he’s likely out.
Ricky Pearsall – Has missed three straight games with a knee injury.
C.J. Stroud – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB on a weekly basis in just four of his last 21 games.
Mac Jones – Brock Purdy (toe) is likely to miss another game. This is not the week to stream Jones. The Texans are allowing just 0.27 passing fantasy points per dropback, which is the league-low by a significant margin.
Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel – Nico Collins (concussion) left halfway through the game last week which left Hutchinson (76% route share) as the lead WR, followed by Higgins (57%), Braxton Berrios (48%), and Noel (46%).
Kendrick Bourne – Earned just 8% of the targets last week with Jennings closer to full health.
Stash ‘Em
Brian Robinson
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Must Start
Jalen Hurts
Start ‘Em
Jaxson Dart – Over the last month, Dart has averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game (QB4). If he’s able to sustain this pace, it would make Dart the third-most productive rookie QB since the merger. For reference, Jayden Daniels averaged 20.9 FPG last season.
Saquon Barkley – The RB18 by fantasy points per game, Barkley has taken a big step back from his 2024 scoring pace. It’s a two-fold problem. The Eagles offensive line has regressed, going from top-3 in yards before contact to middle of the pack. Philadelphia has fallen from 6th to 18th in points per drive. They’ve shifted more pass-heavy, purely out of necessity.
Cam Skattebo – Has at least 16 touches and 90 yards from scrimmage in five-straight games. The Eagles are allowing 4.1 YPC and a league-high 59% success rate vs. RBs. By expected fantasy points, Skattebo’s role (RB8) is slightly more valuable than Barkley’s (RB14) right now.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith – In their last four games, the Eagles have shifted towards a more pass-heavy approach (+5.2% PROE | seventh). DeVonta Smith has hit two big ceiling games (9/183/1 vs. Vikings and 8/114 vs. Broncos) and has two down performances (4/49 vs. Giants and 2/29 vs. Buccaneers) wedged in between. Brown’s target share has remained steady – he’s earned at least 21% of the targets in six straight outings since Week 1. This matchup certainly favors Brown, who is crushing man coverage to the tune of 4.34 yards per route run (WR3). The Giants play the second-most man coverage (40%). Both remain up-and-down WR2. Keep an eye on Brown this week – he didn’t practice on Wednesday (hamstring).
Dallas Goedert – He’s finished as the TE15 or better in weekly scoring in 11 out of his last 14 full games. Goedert just hammered the Giants for 9/110/1 receiving two weeks ago, and New York just gave up 7/62 to Broncos TEs in Week 7.
FLEX Plays
Wan’Dale Robinson – In four games with Dart under center, Robinson has earned a strong 24% of the Giants' targets and played well (20/223/1 receiving on 31 targets). He remains a steady WR3.
Sit ‘Em
Darius Slayton – Returned to limited practice on Wednesday. Questionable to play (hamstring). If he’s able to return, Dart is capable of supporting two WR3 in fantasy between Robinson and Slayton.
Theo Johnson – The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Tyrone Tracy – Has played 42%, 30%, and 38% of the snaps in his last three full games.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Must Start
Drake Maye – Has finished among the top-10 weekly scorers at QB in 5-of-7 games this season. This is an ideal schematic matchup for Maye against this Browns secondary that predominantly plays one-high safety coverages (61%). Maye leads all QBs in FP per dropback vs. man coverage and ranks eighth-best by FP/DB vs. Cover-3 zone this season.
Start ‘Em
Stefon Diggs – After a slow start, Diggs has 26 receptions for 344 yards over the last month. He’s earned 29% or more of the targets in three out of his last 4 games. He leads all WRs in yards per route run (4.89) when facing man coverage this season. Cleveland plays the sixth-most man (34%). Diggs is an upside WR2.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Has completely buried TreVeyon Henderson. Over the last two weeks without Antonio Gibson (knee), Stevenson has played 74% of the snaps, taken 31-of-42 RB carries, and nearly tripled up Henderson in routes (38 to 10). This is a tougher matchup vs. a great Browns run defense, but Stevenson’s role is RB2-worthy.
Quinshon Judkins – Fresh off of a season-high 25 carries, Judkins just ran for 85 yards and scored 3 TDs in an ideal game environment vs. Miami. This is a polar opposite spot. Cleveland are +7 underdogs in New England. The Patriots are playing stellar run defense, allowing just 3.2 YPC and 66 yards per game (second-fewest). After he was one of the best runners on the Week 7 slate, Judkins is more of a low-end RB2 this week.
Harold Fannin – The Browns didn’t have to throw much last week, but Fannin is coming off a season-high by route share (83%) and target share (28%) last week with David Njoku (knee) out. Those are top-5 fantasy TE levels of usage. This is a really nice matchup for Fannin to hit a ceiling – New England is giving up the fifth-most yards per target (9.1) to opposing TEs.
Sit ‘Em
Hunter Henry – Since he blew up for 8/90/2 receiving vs. Steelers in Week 3, Henry has just 14 targets (11/145/1 receiving) over his last four games. His only game with more than 18% of the targets this season was against Pittsburgh.
David Njoku – Likely out again with a knee injury.
Jerry Jeudy – Has finished as WR32, WR52, WR92, WR45, WR80, WR36, and WR73 this season.
TreVeyon Henderson
Kayshon Boutte – Has five or fewer targets in six straight games.
Isaiah Bond
Dillon Gabriel
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens
This game is a potential shootout. Games involving the Ravens have combined for a nice 69 total points scored on average in Lamar Jackson’s three full starts.
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Welcome back. After he’s missed the last two games with a hamstring strain, Jackson returned to limited practice on Wednesday. He’s scored as fantasy’s QB4, QB3, and QB3 across his three full starts.
Derrick Henry – Now that Jackson is back under center, this seems like an ideal spot for Henry to get going as -7 home favorites over a weak Bears run defense. Chicago is allowing the third-most yards per carry (5.2) on zone blocking runs, which is the foundation of Baltimore’s run game with Jackson. 61% of Henry’s runs have been off of zone concepts in Lamar’s starts.
Start ‘Em
Caleb Williams – Attempted a season-low 26 pass attempts last week in bad weather conditions. Williams will be back up to his usual 33-35 dropbacks (or more) in this potential shootout. Only the Cowboys (19.8) allow more passing fantasy points per game than the Ravens (19.4) do.
Zay Flowers – In three full games with Lamar this season, Zay Flowers has earned a huge target share (29%). That would rank WR7. Flowers has a high ceiling this week. He’s lined up in the slot on 44% of his routes in Lamar’s three full starts, which gives him an ideal matchup here. The Bears are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers.
Rome Odunze – While I’m willing to write off last week’s down performance due to the windy conditions in Chicago, it will be concerning if Caleb Williams and Odunze don’t rock the Ravens here. Odunze has consistently been the Bears top target, earning at least 17% of the looks in every game this season. The Ravens play the third-most man coverage (39%), which favors Odunze. He’s crushing man coverage to the tune of 3.34 yards per route run (compared to 1.70 YPRR vs. zone).
Stream ‘Em
Colston Loveland – If Cole Kmet (back) is out, then Loveland will be in play as a desperation streamer. Loveland is coming off of season-highs in route share (63%) and target share (15%).
Sit ‘Em
DJ Moore – Roster clogger. His weekly finishes this season are: WR36, WR49, WR28, WR45, WR41, and WR40. Moore is earning just 15% of the Bears targets.
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – Andrews has finished as the TE15 or worse in weekly scoring in 5-of-6 games. We saw the Ravens ramp Isaiah Likely up to a full-time role (80% route share) in Week 6 before the bye. He ran slightly more routes than Andrews (70%).
Luther Burden – Hasn’t been involved in more than 40% of the pass plays in a single game yet this season.
Rashod Bateman
Stash ‘Em
Kyle Monangai
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – The Falcons are -7.5 home favorites over this Dolphins defense that’s giving up a league-high 135.6 rushing yards per game. Robinson could erupt for another 200 yards from scrimmage here.
De’Von Achane – Despite their offensive struggles, Achane has been a consistent stud. He’s finished as the RB17 or better in seven straight games.
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – After his QB melted down in last week’s poor weather conditions, I wish I were more optimistic about this week’s spot. Atlanta’s front-seven can wreak havoc on Tua here. The Falcons are forcing the seventh-highest pressure rate and they’re allowing the second-fewest passing fantasy points per game (9.9). Waddle will get force fed all of the targets that he can handle, though. Darren Waller (pec) is on I.R.
Drake London – In their 19 full games together, London has 102/1230/7 receiving (on 162 targets) while Darnell Mooney has 73/1124/5 receiving (on 126 targets). London is averaging 11.3 Half-PPR FPG (WR26). Mooney is putting up 9.4 FPG (WR45). London’s two big games this season have come with Mooney mostly off of the field. London crushed the Commanders for 8/110/1 receiving in Week 4 (when Mooney got hurt) and went off against the Bills for 10/158/1 receiving in Week 6 (Mooney was out).
Kyle Pitts – With six teams on bye, Pitts is in play as a low-end TE1. Atlanta’s target distribution has been very flat in their three games where everyone is healthy, and it’s actually Pitts leading the way in target share (20%) by a slim margin over London and Mooney (19%).
FLEX Plays
Darnell Mooney – In their three full games together this season, Mooney and London have both earned 19% of the targets. He’s a low-end FLEX here.
Tyler Allgeier – If you’re desperate at RB2 or FLEX, Allgeier is in play. This matchup is so good for this Falcons ground game.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Penix – Play him in SuperFlex. He has yet to finish higher than QB10 in weekly scoring in a single start this season.
Tua Tagovailoa – Play the Falcons D/ST.
Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook
Stash ‘Em
Ollie Gordon – Would have a huge role if Achane were to miss time.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (4:05p)
Must Start
Emeka Egbuka – What hamstring injury? Egbuka led the Buccaneers WRs in routes (80% share) and targets (22% share) last week with Mike Evans (collarbone) out for most of the game. Now down their two veteran receivers, Egbuka will have to be the focal point of Tampa’s passing attack for the rest of the season.
Rachaad White – In three starts without Bucky Irving (shoulder), White has played on 83% of the snaps and handled 41-of-51 RB carries (80%). He’s a full-blown bell cow.
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Coming off his first down game of the year, Mayfield is in a good bounceback spot. New Orleans allows the fifth-most passing fantasy points per dropback and their pass rush is just mid. The Saints have the slowest time to pressure (2.8 seconds) on average.
Chris Olave – Finally starting to pay off his amazing volume with great production. He’s earned at least 22% of the Saints targets in every game. Olave has gone off for 11/196/2 receiving in two easier matchups vs. Saints and Bears. When you face Tampa Bay, you had better be prepared for blitzes. The Buccaneers blitz on 36% of their opponents pass plays. Olave has earned an unreal 37% target share when Spencer Rattler is blitzed this season. He didn’t practice on Wednesday (ankle).
Cade Otton – Has come back to life with 16/197 receiving over the last three weeks. Egbuka (21%) leads the Buccaneers in target share in this span, but Otton (19%) is a close second. Over his last six games without Mike Evans and/or Chris Godwin, Otton has piled up 42/409/2 receiving (12.2 Half-PPR FPG | ~TE5).
FLEX Plays
Alvin Kamara – The Saints run game has stalled over the last three weeks as Kamara has grinded out 86 scoreless yards on 29 carries. Yikes. The Buccaneers do give up dump-off passes underneath, allowing 5.1 receptions per game to RBs (sixth-most). At best, Kamara is a low-end RB2/FLEX.
Rashid Shaheed – At 11.2 PPR points per game, Shaheed is out scoring Brian Thomas Jr. by two-tenths of a point. With six teams out, Shaheed remains in play as a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Tez Johnson – If you’re in trouble at receiver this week, Johnson projects as a WR4/FLEX-worthy option. He’s played on 84% and 74% of the Buccaneers pass plays over the last two weeks, simply out of necessity.
Sit ‘Em
Bucky Irving – Will miss another game with a shoulder injury.
Chris Godwin – Will miss a third straight game with a leg injury.
Juwan Johnson – Has fallen to just 13% of the targets over the Saints last four games.
Spencer Rattler
Stash ‘Em
Devin Neal – He’s now the Kamara handcuff. Kendre Miller (knee) is out for the season.
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (4:25p)
After their fourth-quarter bounceback last week, Denver catches an ideal matchup here. Dallas’ games are combining for 60.1 points scored on average. This game should go off…
Must Start
Javonte Williams – Has simply been a revelation. Williams just piled up 118 scrimmage yards and a TD vs. Washington last week, his fourth game with 100+ total yards this season. This role is just so good. Williams ranks RB5 by expected fantasy points, trailing only McCaffrey, Taylor, Robinson, and Jacobs.
Courtland Sutton – Over his last 18 games (including playoffs), Sutton has 93/1273/9 receiving (on 138 targets). His 15.2 PPR FPG makes him a fringe WR1. This matchup makes him a locked-in WR1. Everyone scores on Dallas’ secondary.
CeeDee Lamb – Across his three full games this season, Lamb has piled up 21/332/1 receiving. He’s averaging a stellar 2.8 yards per route run, which is right in line with his stellar 2023 season (2.9 YPRR).
Jake Ferguson
Bo Nix – It took a monster fourth quarter comeback, but Nix ended up as the QB1 in Week 7. This is an ideal spot to keep rolling. Nix has developed Jared Goff-like splits when his team is favored. Over the last two years, Nix averages 22.2 FPG when the Broncos are favored, but that dips to just 16.4 FPG when they’re underdogs. Denver is favored by -3.5 over Dallas on Sunday.
Start ‘Em
Dak Prescott – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB on a weekly basis in five out his last 6 matchups. The Broncos defense is a tough test, but as we saw with Jaxson Dart last week, they’re not totally impenetrable. Dak has combined his excellent ball placement with stellar pocket management. He has the second-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio (8.5%).
George Pickens – In their three full games together, Lamb (31) leads the way in targets with Ferguson (25) second and Pickens third (18). Lamb moves all around the Cowboys formation, but when he aligns out wide, he will see a good bit of Patrick Surtain. This will leave Pickens on Riley Moss for a lot of the game.
J.K. Dobbins – Even though he’s minimally involved in the passing game, Dobbins has deservedly remained the focal point of the run game. He’s taken 71% of the RB carries so far. This is just like the Jaguars and Patriots backfield – the veteran is keeping the rookie off of the field. He remains a strong RB2 start attached to a Broncos offense that is implied to score 27 points, which is fourth-most on the slate.
Sit ‘Em
Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims – I’d love to get excited about one of these Broncos ancillary receivers in this great matchup… but it’s too thin. Since going for 8/89/1 receiving in Week 2, Franklin has turned his 31 targets into just 15/136/1 receiving over the last five weeks. Franklin is a part-time receiver over the last two games – he’s run a route on just 64% of the pass plays. Marvin Mims is coming off of season-highs in routes (56% share) and targets (7) and he could absolutely catch a deep bomb vs. Dallas, but he’s impossible to trust beyond being a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Evan Engram – Holding the Broncos secondary pieces back from weekly relevance. Over the last month, Engram is tied with Franklin for second on the team in targets (16% share). HC Sean Payton is, once again, utilizing a rotation behind Courtland Sutton again. Engram has yet to run a route on more than 60% of the pass plays in a single game. He’s currently averaging just 29.8 yards per game, second-fewest of his career.
R.J. Harvey
Stash ‘Em
Jaydon Blue
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (4:25p)
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor – The Colts are massive 14-point favorites over the Titans, and are implied to score a league-high 30.8 points. Taylor could seriously push for 200 scrimmage yards in this spot. The Titans are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (122.7).
Tyler Warren – Leads all TEs in yards per game (62.7). Warren is absolutely crushing zone coverage to the tune of 2.9 yards per route run, which is a positive signal for this week. The Titans play almost zero man coverage. Tennessee deploys zones on 79% of opponents’ dropbacks.
Start ‘Em
Daniel Jones – Has finished top-12 among QBs in weekly scoring in 5-of-7 games. Jones is one of the most efficient QBs in football, operating this offense at an extremely high level. He ranks QB3 in yards per pass attempt (8.4) while taking a league-low in sacks (2.7%).
Michael Pittman – While this matchup favors Tyler Warren, this is still a great spot for Pittman as a WR2. The Titans are getting smoked for 2.6 yards per route run (second-most) by opposing outside wide receivers. The Colts target share in six games with their full WR/TE corps is as follows: Warren (21%), Pittman (20%), Downs (18%), and Pierce (14%).
Sit ‘Em
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears – Avoid the Titans backfield split. In their first game under interim HC Mike McCoy, we saw Pollard with a slight lead over Spears in snaps. At least both RBs saw a big uptick in targets (10 total).
Fantasy Points Data: Week 7 Bell Cow Report
Calvin Ridley – Set to miss another game with a hamstring injury.
Josh Downs – Was starting to show some signs of life before missing last week with a concussion. Downs earned 22% and 23% of the targets in Weeks 5-6, converting his good volume into 12/96/1 receiving.
Alec Pierce – We liked Pierce as a WR3/FLEX last week, and that paid off with his best game of the year (5/98 receiving). Josh Downs’ (concussion) return just bumps him back down to WR4 status.
Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike
Cam Ward – Play the Colts D/ST.
Stash ‘Em
D.J. Giddens
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Has scored 23 TDs in 23 games with Green Bay. He was a bit limited by his calf injury and illness last week, though. Jacobs hit season-lows in snaps (57%) and touches (14).
Tucker Kraft – Yeah, this is just a perfect spot for Kraft to go off. The Steelers are allowing the fifth-most yards per game (67.1) and third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends.
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Through six games, Love is QB14 by FPG (17.4). This game has some sneaky shootout appeal if the Steelers can keep the Packers’ foot on the gas. Pittsburgh’s defense has not been good at all this season, ranking second-worst by yards allowed and 11th-worst by points allowed on a per drive basis. The Steelers allow 17.1 passing fantasy points per game (fifth-most).
Jaylen Warren – Hopefully, last week’s usage sticks and we don’t see OC Arthur Smith go back to a gross committee this season. Jaylen Warren is just way too good at the game. Warren just played on 67% of the snaps last week, his second-highest rate this season. He’s averaging 99 scrimmage yards per game (RB7), which is just ahead of Josh Jacobs (98.8).
D.K. Metcalf
FLEX Plays
Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden – Pittsburgh is getting cleaned out for a league-high 137.5 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers as Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. haven’t played as well as expected. Doubs has out-targeted Golden in five out of 6 games this season, and he’s been more involved out of the Packers bye week. Doubs has quietly earned 35% and 28% of the targets in Weeks 6-7. After missing on a few deep shots early in the season, Golden has made the most with his limited opportunities over the last month (16/233 receiving on 19 targets).
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Rodgers – Continue to roll him out in your SuperFlex lineups. I considered writing him up as a streaming option, but I prefer Joe Flacco and Marcus Mariota.
Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth
Calvin Austin – Will return this week after missing the last two games with an injury.
Stash ‘Em
Kenneth Gainwell
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as a top-8 scorer on a weekly basis in 6-of-7 games this season. Nothing about this matchup is scary. Washington is allowing 0.48 passing fantasy points per dropback, tied for fifth-most.
Rashee Rice – Just earned nine targets on 17 routes in his debut. In 14 career games as a starter, he’s produced 92/1028/8 receiving (17.3 PPR FPG) – including the postseason. That level of production would make him the WR9 this season. Rice has earned at least 20% of the targets in 12-of-14 games as a starter.
Start ‘Em
Deebo Samuel – After missing last week with a bruised heel, HC Dan Quinn said that Deebo is “trending up” for Monday night. Samuel has shown a good connection with backup QB Marcus Mariota, turning his nine targets into 8/83/1 receiving.
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – The Raiders didn’t show up last week which limited the Chiefs to just three quarters of scoring. Worthy still led the team in routes, but his 11% target share was a season-low with Rice back in the lineup. Kansas City did move Worthy into the slot for 52% of his routes last week, which gives him a ton of upside in this matchup. Washington is allowing a league-high 104.9 yards per game to opposing slot receivers.
Terry McLaurin – Inching closer to playing again. McLaurin has missed a month with a quad injury. He’s on track to practice this week. This is not a great matchup for his return. The Chiefs play a ton of two-high safety coverage and keep everything in front of them, which is limiting opposing outside wide receivers to just 82.3 yards per game (third-fewest).
Isiah Pacheco – After a horrific start to his season, Pacheco has started to play more. He hit 62% and 77% of the snaps in Weeks 5-6, and he was the clear lead RB in Week 7 with 61% of the snaps in the first three quarters before the Chiefs pulled their starters. Attached to a Kansas City offense that’s implied to score 29.5 points, Pacheco is on the board as a RB2/FLEX in Week 8. I’m treading lightly still, though. He’s finished as a top-24 weekly scorer among RBs just twice all season.
Stream ‘Em
Marcus Mariota – In his four appearances with more than 55% of the snaps over the last two seasons, Mariota has quietly produced 20.8 fantasy points per game. That’d make him tied with Drake Maye for QB6 on the year. Getting his top two wideouts back in this spot is crucial. If Samuel and McLaurin are good to play, then I like Mariota as the top streaming QB on the slate. The Chiefs are super stingy in the secondary, allowing just 10.7 passing fantasy points per game (third-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – After flopping hard last week vs. Dallas (14 touches, 32 total yards), I’m not exactly excited to tee up Croskey-Merritt here. Washington enters Kansas City as massive +12.5 underdogs on the road. Only the Titans and Browns (16.8) are implied to score fewer points than the Commanders (17) this week. While the rookie has the early-down role locked down, we’ll see Jeremy McNichols take a big portion of the passing down work.
Travis Kelce – In his last 13 games in which Rashee Rice has played more than 55% of the snaps, Kelce has just 56/482/1 receiving (on 77 targets). That’s worth 6.3 Half-PPR FPG (TE25).
Zach Ertz – With the Commanders likely getting back Samuel (and maybe McLaurin), we’ll see Ertz slide back to third on the team in targets. He has just five catches for 59 yards in two starts with Mariota this season.
Marquise Brown
Kareem Hunt
Stash ‘Em
Brashard Smith
