Welcome to Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the NFL data in this article is from Fantasy Points and specifically curated from our Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last four seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE, top-20 plays at RB, and top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week, matchup-based plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
There are four teams on bye – Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Good luck this week!
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (TNF)
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Welcome back! For real this time! After last week’s fakeout, Lamar returned to full practice and will play on Thursday night. He missed three games with a hamstring injury. He’s scored as fantasy’s QB4, QB3, and QB3 in weekly scoring across his three full starts.
Derrick Henry – Now that Lamar is back, King Henry is ready to go on a tear down the stretch. Atlanta shot themselves in the foot by not loading up Bijan Robinson with as many carries as he could handle last week. I don’t buy that Miami is an improved run defense after one week. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most yards per carry (4.7) and a league-high 8.5% explosive run rate (of 15+ yards).
De’Von Achane – Has not finished worse than RB17 in weekly scoring this season. Achane just notched his fifth week as a top-12 scorer at the position vs. Atlanta. He’s just a consistent stud. Achane is seventh among all RBs in yards from scrimmage per game (96.8).
Jaylen Waddle – Has turned his 27 targets into a tight 18/319/2 receiving in his four games over the last month without Tyreek Hill. His 13.3 Half-PPR FPG in this span would rank WR12 across the full season, tied with Rome Odunze. Tua Tagovailoa is much better against man coverage than zone – he’s second among all QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.88) vs. man-to-man. This trails only Drake Maye (0.95 FP/DB). Baltimore deploys the third-most man coverage (41%).
Start ‘Em
Zay Flowers – The injury to Lamar Jackson has robbed Zay Flowers of a career-best season. His 29.2% target share is just two-tenths behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s WR9 by first-read target share (34%). And despite playing three and a half games without Lamar, he ranks WR16 in yards per route run (2.41). Flowers’ and Jackson’s connection has been awesome this season (19/284/1 receiving on 26 targets).
Stream ‘Em
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – This is the first time that I’ve written up Andrews and Likely as a Start all year. I’m ready to get hurt. Andrews has finished as the TE15 or worse in weekly scoring in 6-of-7 games this season. He’s topped 35 yards once. This is clearly a spot to play Ravens TEs, though. Miami is giving up the sixth-most yards per game (63.6) to the position and the second-most schedule adjusted FP to inline TEs. Likely has run slightly more routes than Andrews in their last two games together, but Andrews (9 to 4) has earned more targets. If you’re in a tough spot at TE this week with four teams on bye, I’d reach for either of the Ravens tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – I was dead wrong about Tua last week. He shoved against the Falcons strong defense, completing 77% of his 26 throws for 205 yards and 4 TDs. It was just the second time in which he finished as a top-16 QB scorer all season, however. Tua remains a SuperFlex-only asset. Baltimore is a good matchup – they allow the sixth-most passing FP per dropback (0.46).
Malik Washington
Rashod Bateman
Ollie Gordon
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Start ‘Em
Nico Collins – After leaving Week 7 early and missing last week’s game with a concussion, it has really been a season to forget about for Collins. He’s only WR26 by fantasy points per game and WR32 in yards per game. Overall, his volume is WR2-worthy. Nico ranks WR24 by expected fantasy points and WR17 in targets per game. Collins gets a big matchup boost with the Broncos down CB Pat Surtain (pec), but the Broncos pass rush could wreak havoc on C.J. Stroud here.
J.K. Dobbins – The rookie R.J. Harvey scored three times last week, but he really didn’t play more than usual. Dobbins still doubled up Harvey in carries while the rookie took just 28% of the snaps. Dobbins didn’t score, but he did rip off a season-high 121 scrimmage yards last week. As always, I’m treating him as a lower-end RB2.
Courtland Sutton – Dropped a would-be 24-yard TD last week that hit him square in the chest. It would have made his decent day (4/67 receiving) a great one. This is the polar opposite spot compared to last week vs. Dallas. The Texans are playing stout in the secondary, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
Woody Marks – Over the last month, Marks has scored as fantasy’s RB6, RB52, RB16, and RB15 by PPR points. Nick Chubb (46) and Marks (45) have split carries since Week 4, but Marks’ passing down role makes him significantly more valuable (14.1 expected fantasy points per game) than Chubb (9.8 XFP/G). Marks has turned his 18 targets into an efficient 13/165/2 receiving this season. Denver has struggled against opposing RBs in the pass game, allowing 21/272/3 receiving for a league-high 10.5 yards per target.
Troy Franklin – After a slow five game stretch, Franklin crushed the Cowboys for 6/89/2 receiving last week. He’ll get a big bump in the projections if Marvin Mims (concussion) is out.
Sit ‘Em
Bo Nix – I get it. Nix is hard to bench after he’s finished as a top-6 scoring QB in three out of his last 5 games. However, this is the worst team outlook that Denver’s had all year. The Broncos are implied to score just 19 points vs. Texans, and for good reason. Houston is first by Defensive EPA/play (-0.12). The Texans are allowing a league-low 0.29 passing fantasy points per dropback. Only Denver (57%) has a lower completion rate allowed than Houston (58%). Nix has developed Jared Goff-like splits when his team is favored. Over the last two years, Nix averages 22.2 FPG when the Broncos are favored, but that dips to just 16.4 FPG when they’re underdogs. The Broncos are small +1.5 underdogs here.
C.J. Stroud – By adjusted net passing yards per attempt, Stroud ranks third-worst when pressured. Only Geno Smith and Cam Ward are worse. Denver’s defense generates the fifth-highest pressure rate (44%).
Christian Kirk – Will return this week after missing the last two games with a pulled hamstring.
Nick Chubb
Dalton Schultz – No thank you, now that Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are back from their injuries.
Evan Engram
Marvin Mims
Jayden Higgins
Stash ‘Em
R.J. Harvey
Jaylin Noel – Clearly deserves more playing time, but I’d doubt that this coaching staff will give it to him now that Christian Kirk is back.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey
Jaxson Dart – His 21.9 fantasy points per start would place him QB4 among rookie QBs all-time. Dart has displayed a high floor and ceiling – his weekly finishes are QB11, QB14, QB4, QB3, and QB12. At this rate, you’re starting Dart and forgetting it. He should have had a much bigger day if a 70-yard TD to Darius Slayton hadn’t been wiped out due to a ticky-tack OPI last week. Dart will have plenty of clean pockets against this 49ers defense that’s 31st in pressure rate forced (30%).
Start ‘Em
George Kittle – The 49ers got dominated in the time of possession battle last week, holding the ball for just 18 minutes in their loss vs. Houston. They ran just 44 plays. Kittle has run just 64 routes all season after leaving Week 1 early, taking a Week 7 zero in a run-heavy game plan, and last week’s low-volume offense. It’s been a weird year for him. The Giants play the second-most man coverage (41%), which has typically been a great signal for Kittle. He crushed man coverage to the tune of 2.8 YPRR in 2023 and 2.4 YPRR in 2024.
Tyrone Tracy – The injury to Cam Skattebo is a gut punch. Skattebo was fantasy’s RB13 by points per game and his role was RB8-worthy. Once he took over as the lead RB from Week 5 on in his rookie season, Tracy put up 13.2 Half-PPR FPG (RB19). This offense is so much better than last year, though. At worst, Tracy is a volume-based RB2. He could end up being a higher-end RB2 attached to Dart.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – I know it hasn’t translated to any decent box scores, but Jennings’ usage has been WR3-worthy over the last two weeks (WR33 by expected FPG). He leads the 49ers in routes and targets in their last two games, earning 27% and 22% of the looks. Ricky Pearsall (knee) remains out of practice.
Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton – After missing two games with a hamstring strain, Slayton came back last week and led the Giants in total targets (5) and first reads (23%). He scored a massive 70-yard TD last week, but it was called back due to a penalty. Robinson ranks WR32 by fantasy points per game over the last month. On paper, this is a much better matchup for Robinson than Slayton. The 49ers are getting crushed for the second-most fantasy points per game and third-most yards per game (94.8) by slot receivers. The Giants will likely lean more on the pass game with Skattebo out. New York was the fifth-most run-heavy team over the last month. Once again, I’m willing to play Slayton as a low-end WR3/FLEX. Wan’Dale Robinson remains a WR3/FLEX. He projects better in PPR leagues.
Sit ‘Em
Mac Jones – Keep firing him up in SuperFlex. Jones’ weekly finishes are QB6, QB15, QB10, QB22, QB25, and QB13.
Ricky Pearsall – Has missed the last four games with a knee injury. Pearsall remained out of practice on Wednesday.
Theo Johnson – TD or bust streamer. Johnson is averaging just 2.9 receptions and 26.5 yards per game. Daniel Bellinger (neck) is questionable.
Kendrick Bourne – Has earned just 8% and 13% of the targets in their last two games with Kittle and Jennings back.
Stash ‘Em
Brian Robinson – The handcuff to CMC.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor
Tyler Warren – The Steelers are getting lit on fire by tight ends, allowing 69.3 yards per game (third-most) and the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points.
Daniel Jones – Has finished as a top-12 scorer among QBs in 6-of-8 games this season. The Steelers are allowing 18.5 passing fantasy points per game (third-most).
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Warren – Do you know who ranks RB9 by yards from scrimmage per game right now? Yeah, that’d be Warren (94.7). The Steelers have stopped with the nonsense and committed to Warren as the clear lead RB. He’s played on 67% and 65% of the snaps in their last two games. Warren has handled 76% of the Steelers total carries in Weeks 7-8, which leads all RBs. Even with the Steelers installed as +3.5 home underdogs, Warren is among the best RB2 plays on this slate.
Michael Pittman – Currently WR11 by FPG in Half-PPR and WR14 in PPR. I’m treating Pittman as one of the best WR2s for Week 9 in this matchup. The Steelers are getting shredded by opposing outside wide receivers for a league-high 138 yards per game.
D.K. Metcalf – Has been an enigma this season. On the one hand, Metcalf is pacing towards 12 TDs, which would tie a career-high. However, his overall volume remains mid. Metcalf ranks WR37 in targets per game (6.3) and WR34 by expected fantasy points. After he averaged 2.8 and 2.2 yards per route run vs. man coverage in 2023-24, Metcalf is down to a pathetic 0.9 YPRR vs. man-to-man this season. While his volume looks more like a WR3 in fantasy, he projects as a lower-end WR2 again. The Colts allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Alec Pierce – All he does is hit big plays. Pierce leads all receivers in yards per reception (21.4) again after doing so last year (22.3).
Josh Downs – Questionable to play (hip). He didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Aaron Rodgers – Keep starting him in SuperFlex leagues.
Kenneth Gainwell
Calvin Austin
Jonnu Smith
Stash ‘Em
D.J. Giddens – The handcuff to JT.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Has scored 24 TDs in 24 games with Green Bay. I wonder if this calf injury is bothering him a little bit, though. Jacobs’ snaps have trended down to season-lows at 57% and 54% over the last two weeks. He previously had 20 or more touches in five-straight games, but has 14 and 16 touches in Weeks 7-8.
Tucker Kraft – After crushing the Steelers last week, Kraft is currently the TE1 by fantasy points per game. Kraft has led the Packers in targets in back-to-back games, earning 31% and 22% of the looks. He’s the definition of Must Start. Carolina allows the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends (66).
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – We found out what can happen when the Packers actually let Love throw a ton last week. Love’s 37 dropbacks were the second-most in a game this season, and it was only the third time he’s had 30 or more pass attempts. He lit up the Steelers for 360 yards and 3 TDs. Love is one of the most efficient quarterbacks right now, ranking QB8 in TD%, QB4 in YPA, and QB8 in sack rate. Green Bay is implied to score 29.3 points, the highest mark on the Week 9 slate.
Tetairoa McMillan – Just earned a season-high 41% of the targets last week, turning his amazing volume into 7/99 receiving. Carolina enters Green Bay as +13.5 underdogs, which likely means that McMillan will get as much volume as he can handle here. Green Bay is allowing the fifth-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (127).
FLEX Plays
Rico Dowdle – It seems like it’s Rico time. HC Dave Canales said that, "Chuba has meant a lot to this organization and certainly to the identity that we want to build and we wanted to give him the opportunity to go out there and to continue to impact our team in a positive way. But we cannot ignore the fact that Rico has been exceptional… We love the tempo and violence that he is running with. These are things we are looking back on the last four games and really taking a snapshot of what has been successful for us." In my opinion, this seems really bullish for Dowdle. It makes sense! Dowdle has been far more efficient than Hubbard by yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and yards per route run. Unfortunately, this is a brutal team outlook for Carolina. They’re implied to score just 15.8 points, second-lowest on this slate. Green Bay is playing strong run defense (3.7 YPC allowed).
Fantasy Points Data: RB Efficiency Report
Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson – Doubs still led the Packers WR group in routes last week, but it was Watson (4/85 receiving) who had the useful day in fantasy over Doubs (3/44). I fully expected that Watson would be a factor once he returned, but I wasn’t expecting him to get 17% of the first read targets right out of the gates. Matthew Golden (9% FR target share) was barely involved. These Packers receivers project as lower-end WR3/FLEX options with Love playing so well.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Golden – Has not earned more than 20% of the Packers targets in a single game yet this season. Christian Watson returning to form really hurts Golden’s rest of season outlook.
Chuba Hubbard
Bryce Young – Will return after missing one game with an ankle injury.
Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker
Stash ‘Em
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
The Lions have scored 30 or more points in five-straight meetings vs. the Vikings.
Must Start
Jahmyr Gibbs – The Vikings are giving up the seventh-most YPC (4.4) and fourth-highest success rate (54%) against zone-blocking runs this season. Zone runs are predominantly the blocking scheme for Montgomery (67%) and Gibbs (57%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown – The Vikings blitz a ton, so they don’t want to leave their cornerbacks on an island all game long. They play the most two-high safety coverage (69%) among all defenses. St. Brown leads the Lions in targets per route run (0.33) and is crushing with 3.2 yards per route run vs. two-high looks. The only player that’s more efficient vs. 2-hi coverages is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.8 YPRR).
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff – As always, you’re playing Goff as a home favorite. Over the last four seasons, Goff averages 20.7 fantasy points per game (QB7) in 38 starts as a favorite. However, his output dips when the Lions are underdogs to just 14.2 FPG (across 33 starts). I wonder if Vikings DC Brian Flores elects to drop back into coverage a bit more this week? Goff leads all QBs in yards per pass attempt (10.9) when blitzed this season. Minnesota blitzes more often than any team in the league (44%).
Justin Jefferson – Right now, Jefferson is the WR14 by fantasy points per game. His 86 yards per game is right in line with his career average, but he’s scored just once all year. He’s earned double-digit targets in four straight games.
Sam LaPorta – While Amon-Ra St. Brown is just dominating targets again, it leaves LaPorta as a lower-end TE1. St. Brown has earned 26% or more of the Lions' targets in six-straight games. It’s forced LaPorta to live off of 18% of the targets (TE9).
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – The most underrated receiver in fantasy. In their last 15 games together (including playoffs), Jefferson has put up 96/1347/5 receiving (14.2 Half-PPR FPG) while Addison has 73/982/10 receiving (12.9 FPG). This matchup tilts towards Jefferson – he’s earned a target on 33% of his routes vs. man coverage over four games with Addison. By comparison, Addison’s TPRR is just 0.10 vs. man coverage this season. Detroit plays man coverage the fourth-most often (38%).
David Montgomery – While Gibbs’ snap rate is up to a career-high 61%, it’s left Montgomery as more of a RB3/FLEX this season. He’s RB26 by PPR FPG. Gibbs is outscoring him by +8.3 FPG.
Sit ‘Em
Jameson Williams – There are 58 receivers who are averaging more PPR points per game than Williams. Maybe he gets more involved out of the bye? While St. Brown is commanding the ball vs. two-high looks, Williams ranks last on his team in target per route run (0.10 TPRR vs. 2-hi).
Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason – This backfield is a mess. It’s a compartmentalized split. Jones has earned a more valuable role, simply because he’s playing more on passing downs. In their two full games together, Mason has 19 carries for 72 yards while adding 2/10 receiving. Jones 13 carries for just 38 yards but has been efficient as a receiver (5/59/1). Detroit is playing great run defense, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per carry (3.6) and third-lowest success rate (43%).
Fantasy Points Data: Bell Cow Report
TJ Hockenson – In his last 15 games with Jefferson and Addison, Hockenson has turned his 85 targets into 64/665/1 receiving (7.0 Half-PPR FPG | TE23).
J.J. McCarthy – This is McCarthy’s first start since Week 2. He ended up missing five games with an ankle injury. On paper, this is a rough spot as +8.5 road underdogs. Detroit’s pass rush is starting to catch fire, ranking third-best by pressure rate over the last month. LT Christian Darrisaw aggravated his knee injury last Thursday, but he returned to full practice on Wednesday. RT Bryan O’Neill (knee) is questionable. The Lions are getting their secondary back – CB Terrion Arnold and slot CB Avonte Maddox are returning from injury, and S Brian Brach is back after being suspended for one game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Justin Herbert – Leads all passers in yards per game (267.5) and ranks QB6 in fantasy points per game (21.1). Herbert is tracking towards 32-35 passing TDs this season, which would be second-most of his career. The Titans are in fire sale mode after dealing CB Roger McCreary to the Rams. Tennessee is already allowing 7.8 pass yards per attempt, tied with Cincinnati and Chicago for third-most.
Oronde Gadsden – Over the last three weeks as a full-time player, Gadsden has turned into the Chargers second-best receiver behind McConkey. He’s turned his 22 targets into a stellar 19/309/2 receiving. The difference is that Gadsden is a WR you can play at TE. This is another great matchup. The Titans deploy the seventh-most zone coverage (79%). Gadsden ranks fourth-best among all players in YPRR (3.4) vs. zones.
Kimani Vidal – It was reported that rookie Omarion Hampton (ankle) remains in a walking boot and he may miss more than the four games required by I.R. due to his injury. The Chargers have their bye in Week 12. Do they wait until Week 13 to bring Hampton back, hopefully fresh for the playoff push? Vidal has been a low-end RB1 over the last three weeks, turning his 58 touches into 300 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD. The Titans remain without their best player, DT Jeffery Simmons (hamstring). Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (127.5) and a league-high 13 TDs.
Start ‘Em
Ladd McConkey – Since everyone panicked in Week 4 after his one catch game vs. the Giants, McConkey has held strong as a low-end WR1 with 27/294/3 receiving (on 41 targets). That’s worth 18.6 PPR FPG (~WR7). McConkey has earned 21%, 24%, 26%, and 40% of the targets in this span.
FLEX Plays
Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston – Gadsden’s breakout and McConkey’s resurgence have pushed Allen and Johnston’s fantasy value from WR2 to WR3/FLEX options. Allen just played on a season-low 28% of the snaps because the Chargers are playing more 2-TE formations. Allen is still on pace for 100+ receptions, but he doesn’t play when 2-WRs are on the field. That’s all McConkey, Johnston, and Tre Harris. I don’t think this will be the case all season long, but Johnston has fallen out of this offense completely. He didn’t earn a single target last week after earning just 12% and 9% of the looks in his two previous games.
Sit ‘Em
Chimere Dike – Right now, he’s the only Titan that I’d start in fantasy. Dike has been strong over the last two weeks, turning his 12 targets into 11/163/1 receiving. Calvin Ridley (hamstring) remains out. The problem is that Tennessee’s target distribution has been extremely spread out under interim HC Mike McCoy. Over the last two weeks, Elic Ayomanor leads the Titans in target share (18%) followed by Dike (17%), Van Jefferson (17%), Gunnar Helm (11%), Tony Pollard (11%), and Tyjae Spears (10%).
Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard – This backfield remains one to avoid, if you can help it. Pollard (2.5 YAC and 0.14 missed tackles forced per carry) and Spears (2.3 YAC and 0.13 MTF) have nearly identical efficiency metrics and usage so far. The Titans have split snaps 51% to 49%, in favor of Spears. Over the last three weeks, Spears has scored as fantasy’s RB24 while Pollard is RB31. There are 33 WRs with more PPR FPG than Spears in this span. At best, they’re both low-end FLEX options.
Elic Ayomanor
Cam Ward
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Atlanta giving Bijan just 12 touches in a game without Drake London was… a choice. He’s met with a significantly worse matchup after last week’s letdown. The Patriots are playing excellent run defense, allowing the second-fewest YPC (3.2).
Drake Maye – Has finished among the top-10 weekly scorers at QB in 6-of-8 games this season. Atlanta’s pass rush can slow Maye down, but we saw last week that their secondary isn’t impenetrable after Tua Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards and 4 TDs on just 26 attempts.
Start ‘Em
Drake London – Was a late addition to the injury report on Saturday, and he ended up missing Sunday with a hip issue. He did get back to limited practice on Wednesday. In their 19 full games together, London has 102/1230/7 receiving (on 162 targets) while Darnell Mooney has 73/1124/5 receiving (on 126 targets). London is averaging 11.3 Half-PPR FPG (WR26). Mooney is putting up 9.4 FPG (WR45). London’s two big games this season have come with Mooney mostly off of the field. London crushed the Commanders for 8/110/1 receiving in Week 4 (when Mooney got hurt) and went off against the Bills for 10/158/1 receiving in Week 6 (Mooney was out).
Stefon Diggs – Yeah, I didn’t foresee Mack Hollins leading the Patriots WR group in first read targets (33%) last week. Diggs remains the Patriots top target over their last five games with 28% of the looks while Kayshon Boutte (15%), Hunter Henry (12%), and Mack Hollins (11%) are secondary options. Atlanta predominantly plays single-high safety coverage (71%), which is good news for Diggs. He averages a stellar 3.2 yards per route run vs. 1-hi but dips to 1.9 YPRR when facing 2-hi safety coverages.
Kyle Pitts – With four teams on bye, Pitts is in play as a low-end TE1. Atlanta’s target distribution has been very flat in their three games where everyone is healthy. It’s actually Pitts leading the way in target share (20%) by a slim margin over London and Mooney (19%).
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – Nursing a toe injury. Stevenson didn’t practice on Wednesday. He’s played on at least 70% of the Patriots snaps in three straight games, but has plodded for 45/140/1 rushing.
Sit ‘Em
Kayshon Boutte – While Stefon Diggs has remained a somewhat part-time player (63% route share), Boutte leads the Patriots (71%). Boutte played a season-high 88% of the Patriots pass dropbacks in Week 8. He’s earned more than five targets once all season, but his connection with Maye is as good as it gets (23/431/5 receiving on 30 targets). You’re chasing TDs with Boutte as a WR4.
TreVeyon Henderson – Has played on just 29%, 14%, and 21% of the Patriots snaps in three games without Antonio Gibson (knee).
Darnell Mooney – This has been a horrific season for Mooney as he’s battled through two injuries (shoulder, hamstring). He’s turned his 25 targets into just 11/158 receiving. He’s earning just enough looks to hurt London, but not enough to really be a factor in fantasy. Mooney has been held to just 13% of the targets in back to back games, well behind Kyle Pitts (26% and 29% TS in Weeks 7-8).
Hunter Henry – Since he blew up for 8/90/2 receiving vs. Steelers in Week 3, Henry has just 15 targets (12/152/1 receiving) over his last five games. His only game with more than 18% of the targets this season was against Pittsburgh.
Michael Penix – I still can’t believe that Atlanta called 32 dropbacks for Kirk Cousins compared to nine runs for Bijan Robinson last week. Penix is set to return to the field after missing one game with a knee injury. He has yet to finish higher than QB10 in weekly scoring in a single start this season.
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Note: I’m holding off on Bengals analysis until we get news on the starting QB. Joe Flacco is 50-50 to play (per HC Zac Taylor) with a throwing shoulder injury. The Bengals have their bye in Week 10.
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase – Averaging 28.2 PPR FPG in three starts with Joe Flacco vs. 15.4 PPR FPG in three starts with Jake Browning. He’s earned an unreal 49% and 53% of the Bengals targets in his last two games.
Start ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Remains the most boring but useful RB2 in fantasy. Swift is RB10 in yards from scrimmage per game (93.7) ahead of Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs (91.1). I’m treating Swift like a low-end RB1 in this ideal matchup. Chicago is implied to score the sixth-most points this week (27.3) as -3 favorites over this terrible Bengals run defense. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 143.6 rushing yards per game.
Rome Odunze – Chicago made Odunze the clear focal point of the pass offense last week with 26% of the targets and he responded with a 7/114 receiving performance. Odunze has consistently been the Bears top target, earning at least 17% of the looks in every game this season. The Bengals have been alright in the secondary, they just really stink vs. RBs and TEs. He remains a low-end WR1.
Caleb Williams – There are some serious concerns with Williams still. He ranks slowest in time to throw (3.0 seconds), which is even slower than Justin Fields (2.8 TTT). Williams ranks fourth-worst by catchable throw rate – only Cam Ward, Russell Wilson, and Michael Penix are worse. Holding the ball too long and scattershot accuracy were primary concerns after his rookie season, too. Williams has been a boom-or-bust QB1 in fantasy this season, mixing in three top-10 scoring weeks among QBs with four performances outside of the top-18 entirely. This is another good matchup, but so was last week vs. Ravens. I’m hesitantly starting Williams as a low-end QB1. His outlook would get a small boost if DE Trey Hendrickson (hip) is out. The Bengals don’t have a pass rush without Hendrickson.
Joe Flacco – Over the last three weeks as the Bengals starter, Flacco is averaging 23 fantasy points per game (QB6). That trails only Mahomes, Nix, Maye, Herbert, and Dart in this span. He’s questionable to play after injuring his throwing shoulder last week.
FLEX Plays
Chase Brown
Tee Higgins
Stream ‘Em
Colston Loveland – He’ll be back in play if Cole Kmet (back) is out again. Loveland is getting more playing time. His route share has risen in three-straight games (39% > 63% > 76%) and he just earned a season-high in targets (5). Ultimately, this matchup is what puts him in play as a low-end streaming option at TE. The Bengals allow a league-high 73.4 receiving yards and +8.3 (!!) scheduled adjusted fantasy points per game to the position.
Sit ‘Em
DJ Moore – Roster clogger. His weekly finishes this season are: WR36, WR49, WR28, WR45, WR41, WR40, and WR31. Moore is earning just 16% of the Bears targets.
Luther Burden – Questionable to play (concussion).
Noah Fant – Has earned exactly 9% of the targets in three-straight games.
Stash ‘Em
Kyle Monangai
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05p)
Start ‘Em
Brock Bowers – Welcome back! After he missed three games with a knee injury, Bowers returned to full practice on Wednesday. He earned 21% of the Raiders targets (TE2) while playing on one leg in Weeks 1-4. There’s an elephant in the room. His QB has a 7:10 TD-to-INT ratio to go along with a high 8.6% sack rate. After he averaged 249.5 passing yards per game across three seasons in Seattle, Geno Smith is down to just 202.4 YPG across seven starts this year.
Ashton Jeanty – The Raiders got out-played and out-coached in every facet by Kansas City in Week 7 before the bye. Their offense managed just 18 minutes in time of possession, they converted three first downs, and ran just 30 plays. Jeanty was surviving as a volume-based RB2 prior to that collapse.
Travis Hunter – The Jaguars have made Hunter a full-time WR as he’s operated on 85% of the Jaguars pass plays in his last two games. Hunter has responded with a team-high 20 targets, turning those looks into 12/116/1 receiving vs. Seahawks and Rams. Over the last two games, Hunter’s 27% first read target share was slightly higher than Brian Thomas Jr. (24%) and he had the slightly better role by expected fantasy points as well (17.5 XFP/G to 15.7). I’d trade for him.
Travis Etienne – After a strong start to his season, Etienne slowed down in three more difficult matchups vs. Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams. He turned his 40 touches into 168 scoreless scrimmage yards. It’s a small sample, but the rookie Bhayshul Tuten has been more elusive (0.26 missed tackles forced per touch) than Etienne (0.12) this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguars give Tuten more work after their bye week. The Raiders have played decent run defense this year, allowing 3.8 YPC and a 48% success rate. Etienne is holding onto lower-end RB2 value.
FLEX Plays
Brian Thomas – Currently ranks WR40 in FPG, two-tenths ahead of Marvin Harrison. Gross. Drops on throws away from his body, poor detail in his routes, and up and down QB play have led to Thomas falling from grace this season. On paper, this is a great matchup. The Raiders are giving up the third-most yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (131.9). Travis Hunter lines up in the slot around 60% of the time while Thomas is predominantly outside (80%).
Sit ‘Em
Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker – This is an ideal matchup, but I have zero trust in Geno Smith. Jacksonville is allowing a league-high 26.6 Half-PPR fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. Now that he’s fully healthy, expect Bowers to take over as the clear top target.
Trevor Lawrence – Ranks QB19 by fantasy points per game.
Geno Smith – The only QB that’s been worse when pressured this season? Yeah, that’d be the rookie Cam Ward. I’m searching for anything positive to say about Geno at this point. At least this should be a spot where he’ll get some clean pockets. Jacksonville ranks bottom-10 in pressure forced and sack rate.
Parker Washington and Dyami Brown
Stash ‘Em
Bhayshul Tuten
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (4:05p)
Must Start
Puka Nacua – Across his five full games this season, Nacua looked like he was on pace for the Triple Crown. He turned his 62 targets into a stellar 52/588/2 receiving. His 26.8 PPR FPG makes him WR1 over Rashee Rice (24.4 FPG), Jaxson Smith-Njigba (22.4), and Ja’Marr Chase (21.6).
Start ‘Em
Kyren Williams – There are three things to be sure of in life: Death, taxes, and Kyren Williams producing low-end RB1 numbers. He’s RB10 so far this season. He ranks RB7 in snaps (74%) and RB8 by expected fantasy points.
Matthew Stafford – Quietly the QB10 by FPG, just two-tenths of a point behind Dak Prescott. Stafford’s efficiency metrics (7.0 TD%, 7.7 YPA, and 4.4% sack rate) look nearly identical to his 2021 season in which the Rams won the Super Bowl (6.8 TD%, 8.1 YPA, and 4.8% sack rate). He’s a mid-range QB1 this week against this weaker Saints secondary. New Orleans gives up the sixth-most passing fantasy points per dropback.
Davante Adams – Even though Nacua dominated targets with a 42% first read share in Weeks 1-5, we saw Adams still produce like a higher-end WR2 with 15.1 FPG (WR16). With his QB playing at an extremely high level, I could see Adams popping up for 17-18 FPG to close out this season. His volume is still great, even compared to Nacua. In their five full games together, Adams ranks WR6 in targets per game and WR4 by expected points.
Chris Olave – Just when he was turning his great volume into low-end WR1 production, the Saints have made a QB change. Olave is WR3 in targets per game (10), trailing only Chase (12) and Nacua (12.4). The problem is that this is a brutal matchup for Tyler Shough in his first start. The Rams front-seven could take over this game. Los Angeles ranks top-12 in pressure rate, sack rate, and time to pressure. New Orleans has allowed the 10th-highest pressure rate (40%) and second-quickest time to pressure (2.38 seconds) this season.
Sit ‘Em
Alvin Kamara – Yeah, I’m out. The Saints cut Kamara’s snaps down from 85% in Week 7 to just 52% in Week 8. Devin Neal played more than Kamara in the passing game last week, running 20 routes to Kamara’s 15. New Orleans is implied to score a slate-low 14.8 points.
Rashid Shaheed – While this matchup is scary for the Saints, the good news is that the targets have solely concentrated around Olave and Shaheed. In eight games, Olave has earned at least 21% of the looks each time out. Shaheed has earned at least 23% of the targets in three straight games after he was below 20% in Weeks 1-5. Shaheed has been a useful FLEX as WR37 in PPR FPG. He has out-scored Brian Thomas Jr. (11.8 PPR FPG to 11.0) this season, but I’m highly skeptical of this offense in Shough’s first start.
Juwan Johnson – After a hot start in Weeks 1-3, Johnson has fallen out of the Saints pass offense. Over his last five outings, he ranks only TE24 in targets per game (4.6).
Tyler Shough – Will be the Saints starter for the rest of the season. Spencer Rattler clearly showed signs of improvement in his second year, but I understand why the Saints want to get an extended look at Shough with their season already over (New Orleans is 1-7).
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Devin Neal
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (4:25p)
The last three meetings of Chiefs-Bills have produced 51, 51, and 61 total points scored. This is a playoff game for both teams as the Chiefs chase down the Broncos in the AFC West and the Bills are a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East.
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as a top-8 scorer on a weekly basis among QBs in 7-of-8 games this season.
Josh Allen – Has finished as a top-10 scorer among QBs in 5-of-7 games this season. Allen has rushed 35 times for 166 yards and 4 TDs in his last three outings vs. Kansas City.
Rashee Rice – In 15 career games as a starter, he’s produced 101/1121/9 receiving (17.9 PPR FPG) – including the postseason. That level of production would make him the WR6 this season. Rice has earned at least 20% of the targets in 13 of his last 15 games. He’s scored as fantasy’s WR10 and WR2 in weekly scoring in two games this season.
James Cook – Putting up an absurd 24.9 PPR points per game in Bills wins vs. just 6.8 FPG in their two losses. He’s sort of scoring like the Bills version of Derrick Henry. Cook hasn’t recorded a reception in three straight games.
Start ‘Em
Kareem Hunt – With Isiah Pacheco (knee) set to miss some time after having his leg caved in last week, we’ll see the Chiefs roll with Kareem Hunt more on early-downs while the rookie Brashard Smith gets a small uptick in the passing game and change of pace role. Hunt scored as fantasy’s RB20 by FPG across eight starts without Pacheco last season.
Khalil Shakir – Has led the Bills in target share with 23%, 29%, 19%, and 30% of the looks in their last four games. He ranks WR22 in FPG over the last five weeks, and has a chance to hit a bigger ceiling here with Josh Allen guaranteed to drop back to pass more than 21 times (like he did last week).
Travis Kelce – His long 38-yard catch was a bit of a fluke after the Commanders left his side of the field open while he was in to block, Kelce was significantly more active last week (21% target share) compared to Rice’s first game back in Week 7 (9% TS). We still have a big sample of splits that point us in the opposite direction, but I’m willing to play Kelce as a lower-end TE1 in this likely shootout. In his last 14 games in which Rashee Rice has played more than 55% of the snaps, Kelce has just 62/581/2 receiving (on 86 targets). That’s worth 9.4 PPR FPG (TE21).
Dalton Kincaid – Once the Bills figured out that they were going to trample the Panthers in the run game last week, Kincaid got subbed off of the field for Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes as the preferred blocking TEs. The Bills are small +2.5 home underdogs, which will mean that Allen has to drop back and pass way more this week. The Chiefs have shifted away from two-high safety looks and are dropping a safety into the box more often over the last month. Kansas City has played one-high safety coverage (Cover-1 man or Cover-3 zone) on 56% of opponents pass plays across Weeks 5-8. Kincaid (0.25 TPRR and 3.38 YPRR) and Shakir (0.23 TPRR and 2.58 YPRR) have both fared well against single-high looks this season, leading the Bills in both targets and yards on a per route basis.
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – Getting sharply out-targeted by Rice by an 18 to 11 margin over the last two weeks. While we’ve seen Rashee Rice earn 31% of the first reads, Worthy’s volume is more like a WR3 with a 20% FR share.
Sit ‘Em
Keon Coleman – Has just 19/155/1 receiving over his last six games since his big Week 1 performance (8/112/1 vs. Ravens).
Brashard Smith – He’s definitely set to take on a larger role with Pacheco out, but I’m not sure how valuable it will be with Hunt locked in for goal-line work. Smith has played more than 25% of the snaps just twice all year. He’s a desperation FLEX.
Marquise Brown
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (SNF)
Must Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Start ‘Em
Jayden Daniels – After missing two games with a knee injury and last week with a pulled hamstring, let’s hope that Daniels’ streak of bad luck is over. He ranks QB11 by FPG in his five full games. Seattle plays very little man coverage, which might be a good thing for Daniels this week. He’s been more efficient vs. zone (7.6 YPA) than against man coverage (6.6 YPA) this season.
Zach Ertz – In five starts with Jayden Daniels this season, Ertz is averaging 11.8 PPR points per game (TE9). This is a pretty decent matchup against a Seahawks secondary that’s allowing the seventh-most yards per game (63.4) to tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Deebo Samuel – Unfortunately, Deebo has never played well through injury in his career. Since he injured his heel in Week 6, Deebo has been held to just 7/26 receiving on 11 targets and has turned his two carries into 0 yards over his last two games. Hopefully, he’s back to 100% health this week. The Commanders desperately need him to step up with Terry McLaurin (quad) out again. Samuel has been excellent with Jayden Daniels in their four games together, turning his 34 targets into 26/232/2 receiving.
Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet – In their six full games together, Walker has 79/392/1 rushing while Charbonnet has been sharply out-played (72/205/5 rushing). We’ll see if the Seahawks change things up out of the bye week, but I’m expecting more of the same. This coaching staff loves Charbonnet in short-yardage situations. Charbonnet has 13 carries to Walker’s three inside-the-10 in their games together this season.
Stream ‘Em
Sam Darnold – I’m going to be writing up Darnold as a low-end QB1 streaming play quite a bit. Darnold has quietly played more efficient ball in Seattle than he did with Minnesota. Darnold’s TD% remains unchanged at 6.3% and he’s leading all QBs in YPA (9.1). He’s also cut his sack rate nearly in half (from 8.1% last year to 4.5% this year). He quietly finished as a top-10 scoring QB in three out of his last 5 games before the bye. Washington is burnable in the secondary and allows the fourth-most passing fantasy points per dropback.
Sit ‘Em
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – We called last week’s down game for Croskey-Merritt as big road underdogs. Jeremy McNichols is the passing-down RB. Unfortunately, this seems like an even harder matchup. Seattle is the league’s best run defense. The Seahawks are giving up just 2.9 yards per carry, a league-low. They’re the only unit that hasn’t allowed an explosive run of 15+ yards yet this season.
Terry McLaurin – Re-injured his quad last week. He’s already been ruled out.
Cooper Kupp
A.J. Barner
Tory Horton
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (MNF)
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb – In their four full games together, Lamb (41) leads the way in targets with George Pickens (27) and Jake Ferguson (26) operating as the secondary receivers.
George Pickens – After a slow Week 1 vs. Eagles (3/30 receiving), Pickens has been fantastic over his last seven games (40/655/6 receiving on 55 targets). At the halfway point of the season, Lamb is WR6 in PPR FPG. Pickens is WR7.
Javonte Williams – Only four running backs have finished among the top-15 scorers on a weekly basis at RB in all but one game this season. They are Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs… and Javonte Williams.
Trey McBride
Start ‘Em
Dak Prescott – Was held in check for one of his worst games of the year last week in Denver against a tough front-seven and secondary. This is a much better matchup. Arizona ranks bottom-10 in pressure rate and sacks.
Kyler Murray – Yeah, you shouldn’t be relying on Kyler as your rest of season QB1. Kyler has been the definition of “meh” for fantasy, finishing as the QB16, QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB18 in weekly output. That’s replacement-level production. Murray has straight-up regressed. His 192.4 yards per game and 9% sack rate are both career-worst marks. Forget all of that for just this week, though. Dallas’ defense will give up points to everyone. The Cowboys are allowing a whopping +7.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game above opponents’ average this season.
Jake Ferguson – While this passing offense struggled last week and Prescott tied his season low in yardage (188), Ferguson was held out of the box score vs. Broncos. Tight end scoring has been all over the map this season, with every “good” TE randomly getting shut out at least once. You’re going right back to Ferguson in every lineup.
Marvin Harrison – If there were ever a matchup for Harrison to go off, it’d be this one. In theory, at least. Harrison has been a massive disappointment again this season. He’s WR41 by fantasy points per game. Yikes. His production (3.4 receptions, 56.6 yards per game) looks like a carbon copy of his rookie season (3.6 R/G, 52.1 YPG). Dallas allows the second-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers.
FLEX Plays
Bam Knight – In their last game before the bye, Knight doubled up Michael Carter in carries (14 to 7) and by expected fantasy points. This is an awesome matchup against a sliding Cowboys run defense. Dallas is allowing the seventh-most yards per carry (4.6) and the second-highest success rate (58%). He projects like a RB2/FLEX in this spot.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Carter
Stash ‘Em
Jaydon Blue
