2025 Week 10 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data, we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

Then, later in the week, Ryan Heath examines schematic matchups for NFL Premium and All-In subscribers with his Advanced Matchups column. We believe we attack coverage matchups from every angle for our subscribers.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

We are making history here in Week 10 of 2025.

For the first time in the four years I’ve been writing this column, I don’t see a single situation that I would classify as a probable shadow. And while — of course — the NFL’s way of playing defense is a major reason for this, a conflagration of circumstances leaves us blank in the shadow department.

First of all, Sauce Gardner was traded to the Colts, and Patrick Surtain is out with an injury. Those two have been among the most reliable shadow corners this season. I suppose it’s possible that Indianapolis could choose to shadow Drake London with their shiny new toy, but Gardner will be picking up the new defense, and Indy also got Jaylon Jones last week — and he shadowed DK Metcalf. My guess is Indy just lets it play out.

Moreover, I don’t think Brian Thomas Jr. is going to play this week, which would take a Derek Stingley shadow off of the pile. Quinyon Mitchell has shadowed at points this year, but I don’t think the Packers have a receiver that the Eagles will view as a must-follow.

I suppose the Lions could shadow Deebo Samuel with Amik Robertson, but the situation with Justin Jefferson last week was unique — with Terrion Arnold back, I don’t think they’ll view moving Robertson around as a requirement.

All Systems Go

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Commanders DBs

The Commanders’ defense has been bad all year, and now it's dealing with a major injury in the secondary, with Marshon Lattimore out for the season with a torn ACL. Lattimore wasn’t playing particularly well, so some Commander fans looking at the situation through very burgundy-tinted lenses might view this as addition by subtraction. My response to that would be “if Lattimore were the Commanders’ top CB, how bad are the guys behind him?”

Mike Sainristil has been the Commanders’ primary slot CB of late, playing 85.1% of his coverage snaps inside over the last five weeks. But Washington has struggled with receivers in that alignment all season — it allows a 3rd-most 17.1 FPG to slot WRs this year, including a league-high 56 catches, 613 yards, and 10.56 yards per target to the position. And Sainristil might have to move outside to cover for Lattimore. Moreover, rookie Trey Amos — who can play in the slot and has had a rock-solid debut season — is dealing with a hip injury, which could thrust Dolphins castoff Noah Igbinoghene into the slot. Igbinoghene hasn’t played a coverage snap since Week 4.

The Lions are pissed off after losing to the Vikings, but even then, in a matchup I highlighted in this column last week, ARSB posted 9/97 on 13 targets (thank you, garbage time). I think the Lions’ passing game will be able to do whatever it wants against Washington this week — Sam Darnold was 5/6 for 89 yards and 2 TD against the Commanders on Sunday night. Darnold is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards with under-center play action. #3? Jared Goff.

ARSB is a slam-dunk WR1 and pay-up DFS option, while Jameson Williams is always a valid dart-throw WR3/GPP option in a matchup like this.

Giants WRs vs. Bears DBs

It feels weird to be writing up the Giants in back-to-back weeks… but the numbers are the numbers, and Jaxson Dart continues to give his guys opportunity to make plays. And the Bears have been very willing to allow opponents to make those plays.

Over the last five weeks, the Bears are allowing +9.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, 2nd-most in the NFL over that span. The main culprits in that regard are outside CB Tyrique Stevenson, who has allowed a 2nd-most 2.29 yards per route run over the last five weeks among all CBs (min. 50 coverage snaps), and primary slot CB Nick McCloud. The latter contributed to the Bears allowing +12.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs over that span… and was the main reason Chicago signed CJ Gardner-Johnson, who outsnapped McCloud in Week 9.

I was prepared to offer an endorsement for Wan’Dale Robinson — I lost a prop on Robinson last week, but only because I was scared off by the big number on his catch total and went to the receiving yards instead (spoiler: I should have stuck with the catches). The Bears have allowed a league-high 9 TD to slot WRs. Still, Gardner-Johnson might have added a level of competence there. The Bears did give up a TD to a Bengal slot WR last week — still, it was when LB Noah Sewell got caught on WR Andrei Iosivas (I wrote Iosivias up in last week’s column, but not strongly given Joe Flacco’s uncertain status). I can still dabble with Wan’Dale in DFS, and will be looking at his props.

I’m a little more interested in Darius Slayton, who is significantly cheaper ($4300 to $5300) and draws arguably the easier matchup if the upgrade to CJGJ in the slot is real — Slayton had 5 catches for 62 yards against the 49ers last week, and lost a long TD on a 50/50 OPI call against the Eagles the week before.

Slayton will be in some of my DFS lineups this week, and I’ll be looking at his props, as well.

We have Wan’Dale ranked as a high-end WR2 and Slayton as a viable WR3 this week. I personally would squeeze them.

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Jaguars CB Greg Newsome

The Texans will be without CJ Stroud (concussion) this week, which absolutely sucks. But could that create a bit of a DFS buying opportunity for Collins?

Texans backup QB Davis Mills entered cold in a brutal spot against Denver’s pass rush last week, throwing 30 passes. Of those 30, 10 went in the direction of Collins, who caught 6 of them for 66 yards.

Collins runs the plurality of his routes from the LWR alignment, where he’ll draw a primary matchup with Newsome. Since being acquired from the Browns prior to Week 6, Newsome has allowed 0.54 fantasy points per coverage snap, 3rd-most among qualified CBs (50 or more snaps) over that span. He’s given up a touchdown in each of the three games he’s played.

The Jaguars acquired Newsome because they believed he was a better fit in their zone coverage scheme than Tyson Campbell, whom they dealt away in the trade… but since, they’ve played more man coverage. He very well may settle in, but I think this is a winnable matchup for Collins as it stands.

We have him ranked as a WR2 this week.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Saints CB Kool-Aid McKinstry

One of the tougher parts of this column is identifying the matchups we’ll get the majority of the time when defenses don’t “shadow” their corners and offenses move their receivers all around But I feel like I have a decent idea of what’s going to happen in this matchup, because recently the Saints have been playing the physical McKinstry mostly on the boundary — the short side of the field where he can use the sideline as an extra defender.

Now, these things in the NFL are never binary, but if you were to look up “prototypical boundary X” in the dictionary (pretty sure it’s in there…), McMillan’s picture would be next to it. The Panthers move McMillan all around — he even runs 18% of his routes from the slot — but more often than not, if Carolina has an iso receiver to the short side of the field, it’ll be the talented rookie.

So why does this matter? Over the last five weeks, among 32 CBs who have played 100 or more coverage snaps, McKinstry has surrendered 0.45 FP/coverage snap, which is 2nd-most to only DaRon Bland. If we increase the sample to include CBs with 50 or more coverage snaps (adding 65 players), McKinstry still allows the 8th-most over that span. And on the season as a whole, he’s at the 4th-most.

All this is to say I think this is a very favorable matchup for McMillan, who has been somewhat quiet of late. We have him ranked as a WR2 this week, and I’m also putting money on his touchdown prop — McKinstry has allowed 5 TD in his primary coverage this season.

Chargers WRs vs. Steelers DBs

Whether it was because of necessity or performance, the Steelers moved Jalen Ramsey (who had been playing in the slot) to safety last week against the Colts. They just didn’t have any bodies to play there, and they had to get creative.

Remember, this was the same safety crew that allowed 3 TD to Tucker Kraft against Green Bay in Week 8, so even if some of those bodies were warm, Pittsburgh needed to change something before going against Tyler Warren. What resulted was Warren posting 5 catches for 26 yards, the worst game of his to-date brilliant rookie season.

In his primary coverage, Ramsey allowed just 1 catch for 1 yard to Warren.

Now, it’s far too early to tell if the Ramsey switch was the reason the Steelers had a fantastic game against Warren or if their pass rush finally waking up was the reason, but I would presume both would be in effect against the Chargers, who just lost LT Joe Alt (ankle) for the season. So we’ll see if TE Oronde Gadsden has similar struggles.

This is leading me to endorse Ladd McConkey, who is Justin Herbert’s favorite receiver against man coverage, and should have a favorable matchup on Brandin Echols, who was the slot CB filling in for Ramsey. Echols gave up a touchdown to Josh Downs last week.

I’m also confident Quentin Johnston can have a solid game against a secondary Alec Pierce shredded last week. Once Gadsden started to break out, Keenan Allen’s snaps have been limited, however.

I like McConkey props and QJ for DFS. McConkey has quietly been a WR1 for fantasy over the last month plus.

Pump the Brakes

Falcons WRs vs. Colts DBs

Well, well. How the turntables. After picking on the Colts constantly in this column — including last week (incorrectly, mind you), Indianapolis might have one of the best sets of corners in the NFL.

Of course, they had better — they gave up two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner, who will immediately step into Lou Anarumo’s defense as a long, athletic corner with matchup traits if Anarumo chooses to deploy him as such. Gardner joins a Colt defense that just got Jaylon Jones back in Week 8. Jones shadowed DK Metcalf last week, and held him to just 1 catch for 6 yards in his primary coverage — he aligned over Metcalf on 73.3% of his routes.

I’m not in the business of benching Drake London after a 3-TD game, but there’s legitimate reason to believe this matchup will be multiple degrees more difficult than it was just three weeks ago. That’s what the Colts gave up the picks for.

I don’t think I’m brave enough to put my money where my mouth is, but I do wonder if the Colts’ supposed lockdown perimeter would open things up for Kyle Pitts to have a bigger game.

Jaguars WRs vs. Texans DBs

The Jaguars are entering Week 10 very shorthanded at WR, which is why they traded for Jakobi Meyers before the deadline. Meyers should help, but on a short week, it’ll be a tough draw against these Texans.

Over the last five weeks, the Texans have surrendered the 2nd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs, and on the year, they’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest FPG overall to the position. Trevor Lawrence went 20/40 for 222 yards and a pick in this matchup back in September, and that was with Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter. And Parker Washington still saw 11 targets in that game… but caught just 4.

Washington is a “meh” WR3, and I’d have to be terribly desperate to play Meyers in his new digs given the matchup.