Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 10. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
My Typical Posting Schedule
Mondays 9 to 11 a.m. — Initial ATS picks
Wednesdays 8 to 10 a.m. and 3 to 6 p.m. — Initial Player Props
Thursdays 3 to 5 p.m. — Second wave of Player Props
Fridays 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. — Third wave of Player Props
Saturday 10 a.m. to noon — Fourth wave of Player Props
Sunday 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. — Final Players Props
Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 82-41 (66.7%, +35.13 units); Week 10: 0-1 (-1.13 units)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Courtland Sutton (Den) over 53.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings) (L)
- FP Projection: 58.5 yards, buying the dip on this prop, 67+ yards in 5 of his last 7 games, his two down games in that stretch came in shadow coverage from Stingley and Sauce, LV gives up the fourth-most YPRR (2.41) and the third-most receiving YPG (134.5), LV deploys the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages 1.68 YPRR and a team-best .24 TPRR on 100 routes against the coverage. Bet to 56.5 yards. Placed at 9:20 a.m. on Nov. 5.
