Take note: Use the provided projected ownership percentages to determine whether each GPP option listed is best suited to either small- (3-20 Entry Max) or large-field formats (150).
For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, GB at BAL ($7.5K DK | $7.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 5-8%
FanDuel: 8-11%
Week 14 Opponent: Chicago Bears
Results: 29-of-37, 341 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 29.6 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 10th-highest of Cover 6
Allowances:
4th-most FPG through the air to QBs (16.4)
2nd-most passing YPG (266.1)
3rd-most YPA (7.44)
The highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%)
The highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.63%)
History of Scheme Success:
vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):
27 TDs vs. 3 INTs
4th-most FP/Db (0.53)
4th-highest passer rating (107.7)
vs. Cover 6 (last 3 years):
5 TDs vs. 1 INT
2nd-most FP/Db (0.42) FP/Db
3rd-highest passer rating (107.1)
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: Attacking the litany of absences in the Baltimore secondary did not even factor as a compelling reason in investing into Mr. Rodgers. That’s just how smash this spot is for Rodgers to go nuclear.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. TEN ($5.6K DK | $6.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 14 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Results: 28-of-40, 308 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 23.8 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 4 and 12th-highest rate of Cover 1; only 3 other teams have used Cover 4 at a higher rate over the last 5 weeks
Allowances:
7th-most FPG to QBs (18.6)
11th-most passing YPG (250.7)
13th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)
10th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)
Scheme History of Success:
vs. Cover 4 (last 3 years):
Leads all qualified QBs with 0.44 FP/Db
2nd-highest increase to overall FP/Db average (13%)
7th-highest increase in air yards/attempt (10%)
2nd-highest TD rate (14%)
Other:
- 56.6 passer rating under pressure, only 7 other QBs have manufactured a lower score – 3 of them are rookies
- Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value:
- 71.7 passer rating, 5.6 YPA, and 1 TD vs. 1 INT against the blitz
- During the last two weeks and Week 11:
- 126.0 passer rating (43% improvement), 9.0 YPA (38%), and 3 TDs vs. zero INTs against the blitz
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: With a 56.6 passer rating under pressure this season, only seven other QBs have manufactured a lower number – three of them are rookies. Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value, he generated a 71.7 passer rating, 5.6 YPA, and one TD vs. one INT against the blitz. During the last two weeks and Week 11 combine, he’s assembled a 126.0 passer rating (43% improvement), 9.0 YPA (38%), and three TDs vs. zero INTs against the blitz. All of the arrows are pointing upward for this passing offense with Big Ben seeing and reacting to the blitz once again.
Favorite Alternatives
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at NYJ ($5.7K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 11-13% | Game: CASH/Single-Entry (SE))
Joe Burrow, CIN at DEN ($6.1K DK | $7.3K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Davis Mills, HOU at JAX ($5.4K DK | $6.8K FD | ExpOwn: <1-2% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at NYG ($7.3K DK | $6.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 8-11%
- FanDuel: 26-29%
Week 14 Opponent: Washington Football Team
Results: 12/45/0, 9.0 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: New York Giants
Allowances:
8th-most rushing YPG (125.0)
11th-most YPC (4.4)
12th-highest rushing first down rate (25.3%)
7th-most red zone (RZ) touches/game to RBs (4.77)
7th-most FPG (26.2)
Other:
- Posted his best game of the season against New York in Week 5 (28.2 FPs)
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Dallas jumped out to an 18-0 lead by the end of the first quarter last week. At that point, Elliott had out-snapped Corey Clement 18-to-2, and took 5 carries vs. 1 for Clement. Even if Tony Pollard is able to put in a little work, the expectation is for Zeke to take a 75/25 carry split this week. It’s a get-right scenario for Elliott to prove his knee is back to 100%.
Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CIN ($6.1K DK | $7.0K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 2-5%
- FanDuel: <1%
Week 14 Opponent: Detroit Lions
Results: 15/73/1 rushing, 1/10/1 receiving, 21.3 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Allowances:
7th-most goal-to-go touches/game to RBs (2.0)
12th-most FPG to RBs (24.2)
5th-most FPG through the air (13.2)
Other:
- 24.7 FPG during the last three weeks
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: As long as Javonte is removed from the injury report, the path toward another excellent performance is on deck. Buy into the hype.
Favorite Alternatives
James Robinson, JAX vs. HOU ($5.4K DK | $6.3K FD | ExpOwn: 13-16% | Game: CASH/SE)
David Johnson, HOU at JAX ($4.9K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 9-12% | Game: CASH/SE)
Rashaad Penny, SEA at LAR ($5.4K DK | $6.1K FD | ExpOwn: 1-4% | Game: GPP)
D’Onta Foreman, TEN at PIT ($5.2K DK | $5.8K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Duke Johnson, MIA vs. NYJ ($4.0K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams, GB at BAL ($8.9K DK | $8.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 11-14%
- FanDuel: 29-32%
Week 14 Opponent: Chicago Bears
Results: 10/121/2 on 13 targets, 34.1 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
Schemes: 9th-highest rate of Cover 1
Allowances:
- 13th-most FPG to WRs over the last four weeks (34.5)
- 2nd-most passing YPG (266.1)
- 8th-most receiving YPG to WRs (170.8)
- 3rd-most YPA (7.44)
- The highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (19.9%)
- The highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (4.63%)
Individual Matchup: Anthony Averett
Averett’s Coverage Metrics: 1.57 YPCS (5th-most), 0.30 FP/CS (15th-most), 0.21 AY/CS (7th-most)
Adams’ Scheme History (Cover 1, last 3 seasons):
0.77 FP/Rt (the most)
4.05 YPRR (3rd-most)
16.4 YPT (the most)
21% of routes, 30% of receptions, 38% of yardage, 30% of total TDs
Other:
- Ravens will be without Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, and Chuck Clark
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: Secondary absences are a mountainous draw toward Adams. Baltimore is going to have nothing in response to the hailstorm the Packers’ passing offense is going to bring down on their heads.
Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. TEN ($7.5K DK | $7.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 15-18%
- FanDuel: 24-27%
Week 14 Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Results: 5/76/0 on 10 targets, 13.3 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Allowances:
11th-most passing YPG (250.7)
13th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)
10th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)
2nd-most FPG to WRs (42.7)
3rd-most red zone touches (2.08)
Individual Matchup: Kristian Fulton
Coverage Metrics: 0.81 YPCS (12th-fewest), 0.18 FP/CS (10th-fewest), 0.17 AY/CS (23rd-most), 59.4 TPR (4th-lowest)
Other:
Scored 44% of career TDs in the red zone
Removing the last two weeks and Week 11 when Roethlisberger covered floor value:
1.94 YPRR, a 73.3 TPR, and zero TDs when defenses blitzed
During the last two weeks and Week 11:
5.03 YPRR (a 61% spike), a perfect 158.3 passer rating (54%), and collected all three of the TDs thrown by Roethlisberger
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: “Doctor Pepper” never leaves the field. He’s also garnered at least a 32% target share in 58% of his games and at least 22% in 92%. Fulton presents quite the challenge but, when Johnson has faced a defense limiting opposing WR FPG production outside of the top-20 teams, he averages 21.3 FPG. Diontae is the paid spokesman for the difficulty in preventing a receiver from reaching and/or exceeding floor value when extreme target shares are on the table.
Marvin Jones, JAX vs. HOU ($4.6K DK | $5.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: 1-3%
Week 14 Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Results: 6/70/0 on 7 targets, 13.0 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Houston Texans
Scheme: 7th-highest rate of Cover 1 and 3rd-highest rate of Cover 2
Allowances:
4th-most YPA (7.36)
10th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws (14.7%)
4th-highest completion rate on 40-plus throws (2.88%)
3rd-highest passing first down rate (38.5%)
3rd-most TDs allowed on play action (10)
2nd-most FP/CS on play action (0.48)
6th-highest passer rating on play action (124.2)
7th-highest completion rate on 20-plus throws on play action (22.3%)
5th-most red zone touches/game (1.85)
14th-most FPG to WRs the last four weeks (34.4)
Individual Matchup: Desmond King II
Coverage Metrics: 9th-most YPCS (1.47), 10th-most FP/CS (0.32), and targeted at the 7th-highest rate among 76 qualified perimeter CBs
Scheme History:
vs. Cover 1 (last 3 seasons):
21% routes, 27% of receptions, 26% of yardage, and 24% of TDs
25% increase in YPRR
26% increase in target share
vs. Cover 2 (last 3 seasons):
17% increase in YPRR
10% increase in air yards/target
19% increase in YPT
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: With Darrell Bevell – Jones’ former OC and interim HC in Detroit – now running the show in Jacksonville, the expectation is for the locker room and offense settling down. And we have two years worth of data in support of Bevel peppering Jones with volume.
Favorite Alternatives
DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ ($4.3K DK | $5.8K FD | ExpOwn: 21-24% | Game: CASH/SE)
Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. CAR ($3.7K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 13-17% | Game: CASH/SE)
A.J. Green, ARI at DET ($4.9K DK | $5.7K FD | ExpOwn: 6-9% | Game: GPP)
CeeDee Lamb, DAL at NYG ($7.4K DK | $7.4K FD | ExpOwn: 6-9% | Game: BOTH)
Van Jefferson, LAR vs. SEA ($5.6K DK | $6.2K FD | ExpOwn: 2-4% | Game: GPP)
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. ARI ($5.2K DK | $5.9K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
Chase Claypool, PIT vs. TEN ($5.9K DK | $6.4K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
George Kittle, SF vs. ATL ($7.5K DK | $7.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 8-11%
- FanDuel: 12-15%
Week 14 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Results: 13/151/1 on 15 targets, 34.1 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Schemes: The highest rate of Cover 2 and 10th-highest of Cover 1
Scheme History:
vs. Cover 1 (last 3 years):
2nd-most FP/Rt (0.54)
vs. Cover 2 (last 3 years):
The most FP/Rt (0.58)
Game Type: BOTH
The Bottom Line: While the rest of the world has been content with mortality, Kittle has been a demigod unleashed with 39.9 FPG over the last two weeks. As long as he’s clear of the injury report, anything under 50% ownership from the field is actionable toward considering Kittle in GPPs.
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN vs. CIN ($3.3K DK | $5.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: <1%
- FanDuel: <1%
Week 14 Opponent: Detroit Lions
Results: 5/41/1 on 5 targets, 15.1 FPs
Week 15 Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Schemes: 10th-highest rate of Cover 2
Allowances:
12th-highest completion rate (67%)
4th-most passing YPG (256.8)
9th-completion rate on 20-plus throws (15.7%)
11th-most FPG to TEs (13.8)
11th-most red zone touches/game (0.77)
2nd-most FPG over the last four weeks (21.5)
Scheme History (last 3 seasons):
vs. Cover 2, unqualified for ranking:
0.41 FP/Rt
117.5 TPR
12.2 YPT
Other:
Detroit put the 15th-highest rate of Cover 2 on the field last week when Okwuegbunam posted 15.1 FPs
The Bengals are scheming the 15th-highest rate of Cover 2 and George Kittle just ran circles around it
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Albert O has provided solid returns in four-of-six games since coming off IR. While Noah Fant has failed to cover his floor value in six-straight games. If you want an absolute guarantee of big production from a TE, independent of price, you want George Kittle. If you don’t have that much cap space available, but still want a solid guarantee, Dallas Goedert is the call. If the salary-relief category applies, Okwuegbunam is your guy.
Favorite Alternatives
Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS ($5.3K DK | $6.0K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)
Zach Ertz, ARI at DET ($5.4K DK | $5.3K FD | ExpOwn: <1% DK | 12-15% FD | Game: GPP DK | CASH/SE FD)
John Bates, WAS at PHI ($3.0K DK | $4.6K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins, MIA vs. NYJ ($3.7K DK | $5.0K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 12-15% (CASH/SE)
- FanDuel: 12-15% (CASH/SE)
Dallas Cowboys, DAL at NYG ($3.6K DK | $4.6K FD)
Projected Ownership (Game Type):
- DraftKings: 1-3% (GPP)
- FanDuel: 2-5% (GPP)
Favorite Alternatives
*Buffalo Bills, BUF vs. CAR ($3.1K DK *|* $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 15-18% | Game: CASH/SE)*
Green Bay Packers, GB at BAL ($3.3K DK | $4.5K FD | ExpOwn: 3-6% | Game: GPP)
