The Bottom Line: Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Plays


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The Bottom Line: Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel GPP Plays


Derek Carr, LV vs. MIA ($5.9K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 1-3%)

Over the last six games that Derek Carr has finished, he’s averaging 370 passing YPG, two TDs, and 24.4 FPG. If Carr had a WR step forward with moderate consistency, the only thing that would hold him back from being considered a top-10 fantasy QB is rushing upside. Even knowing he will never use his legs to provide floor “guarantees,” if he continues comfortably averaging over 300 passing YPG, the three-point bonus he would earn would essentially provide the exact same elevated floor. Regardless, he posted 336 passing yards, a pair of TDs (one rushing), and 23.3 FPs against these same Dolphins in Week 16 last season.

The Bottom Line: This same Miami defense that finished with the third-highest rate of Cover 1 last season, currently ranks with the highest rate of Cover 1. Over the last three seasons, Carr ranks 10th-best among all qualified QBs with 0.43 FPs/dropback. That average also comes along with the seventh-highest increase in YPA, and the fifth-highest spike in air yards/attempt. We do need to anticipate that Henry Ruggs III will be eliminated by a Xavien Howard shadow. But Bryan Edwards will be filling the shoes of Nelson Agholor vs. Byron Jones that resulted in a 5/155/1 line last season. Even with a very impressive stretch of play, Carr only is expected to be owned in under 3% of rosters.

Jared Goff, DET vs. BAL ($5.2K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: BAL -8.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)

Jared Goff is off to a blazing start to the season. How good? He’s within 5.5 FPG of Patrick Mahomes for a share of second place behind Kyler Murray's ridiculous 36.3 FPG average. And he may have found an outside WR (Quintez Cephus) ready to step forward to provide him with a consistent presence on the perimeter. He comes equipped with the kid pushing closer toward being ready to receive the mantle from Travis Kelce and Darren Waller as the next great TE — T.J. Hockenson. His O-line is far better than would be expected from a team in full rebuild mode. And he is joined in the backfield by one of the top receiving backs in the game (D’Andre Swift). He needs a tad more experience to learn how to respectfully demand a competitive target share, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is closer than most think toward becoming a problem.

The Bottom Line: In addition to that collection of pieces, Goff can almost always be found in a negative game script brought on by the Lions’ talent-barren defense. During his Rams’ career, Goff produced his best numbers against Cover 1 and Cover 3 — single-high safety schemes. He consistently struggled when dealing with a Cover 6. But Goff completed 82.4% of 17 attempts against the Packers’ Cover 6 last week. The Ravens will bring a top-five rate of Cover 6 along with them to Ford Field. And they’ll also put a Cover 1 and Cover 3 in front of Goff on just under 50% of snaps. Goff will have 49.5 opportunities to pad our scorecard with FPs. And less than 2% of lineups will benefit.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. NYJ ($5.8K DK | $7.3K FD | Spread: DEN -10.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

Matt Ryan, ATL at NYG ($5.4K DK | $7.1K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Justin Fields, CHI at CLE ($5.2K DK | *$6.5K FD *| Spread: CLE -7.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Jacoby Brissett, MIA at LV ($4.9K DK | $6.7K FD | Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Running Backs

Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL at NYG ($4.6K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Cordarrelle Patterson has seen more targets this season than Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor, and Najee Harris. He provided the Atlanta coaches with motivation to continue that by ranking third among RBs with 2.96 yards/route (YPRR). He may rank 34th in touches/game (11.5). But Patterson leads all RBs in touch rate when on the field (37.5%) and has also earned the right to run routes from the slot at a top-10 rate. The icing on the cake is the fact that Cordarrelle appears to have claimed the title as the team’s goal-line back, ranking fourth in team carry rate in goal-to-go situations (14.3%). He ranks 13th-best in FPs/touch and 15th with 16.3 FPG. And the Giants are permitting the 8th-most FPG to opposing backfields. Yet we can roster Patterson priced as the RB52/26!

The Bottom Line: Consider that Patterson ranks 13th-best in FPs/touch (1.42) and 15th with 16.3 overall FPG. And it certainly helps that the Giants are permitting the eighth-most FPG to opposing backfields. Did I mention that you can roster Patterson on DraftKings (DK) priced as the RB52?

Latavius Murray, BAL at DET ($5.3K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: BAL -8.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Before you get too excited, Latavius Murray is still the exact same RB we’ve been watching over the last nine seasons. And nothing from the Baltimore staff since the Ravens defeated the Chiefs has officially indicated that Murray’s role as the offense's RB2 has changed. In fact, if I owned Murray and Ty’son Williams on the same season-long roster, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Williams over Murray. With all of that in mind, we have seen a pattern emerge during the first two games that signals Murray could be a sneaky option in FanDuel (FD) GPPs. Williams has been provided with a tasty 67% share of RB carries during first-quarter action of the first two games, resulting in 74 rushing yards. But it has actually been Murray that has been given the highest RB share over the final three quarters — 52% for Murray and 42% for Williams.

The Bottom Line: The reason I’ve listed Murray as a GPP option is due to a pair of plays from Week 2. On the Ravens’ second drive, Williams was provided with a carry on Kansas City’s 10-yard line. After taking the ball inside the one, Mike Hughes stripped the ball from Ty’Son’s hands. Devin Duvernay was able to recover the fumble for the TD, but the damage was already done. The Ravens’ very next goal-to-go carry went to Murray. He punched it in for a five-yard score. And Murray has scored both of Baltimore’s rushing TDs by RBs after the first quarter this season. Heading into a Week 3 game against a Detroit defense giving up the second-most rushing TD/game and Baltimore favored by eight points with an implication for 50.5 total points, a pair of TDs scored for Murray is not out of the question.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

James White, NE vs. NO ($4.9K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: NE -3.0 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

Myles Gaskin, MIA at LV ($5.4K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Javonte Williams, DEN vs. NYJ ($4.9K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: DEN -10.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

J.D. McKissic, WAS at NYG ($5.2K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: BUF -7.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Peyton Barber LV vs. MIA ($4.3K DK | *$5.6K FD *| Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)**

Demetric Felton, NO vs. CHI ($4.5K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: -7.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Wide Receivers

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. ATL ($5.9K DK | $6.4K FD | Spread: -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

I’d already written up Sterling Shepard as an outstanding value this Sunday in Advanced Matchups… decided upon long before discovering that less than 5% of the population would roster him. Here is a reminder of part of the argument I made in support of Shepard: he’s being fed with the 11th-highest target share, Shepard ranks eighth with 22.4 FPG, 19th with 0.547 FP/Rt, and 19th with a 129.6 targeted passer rating.

The Bottom Line: And here are some additional reasons to consider him this weekend: the Falcons are surrendering the 2nd-most FPG to offenses this season. Atlanta is using the highest rate of Cover 2 (50%). Over the last three seasons, Shepard ranks 11th-best among qualified WRs with 0.45 FPs/route (FP/Rt). The coverage the Falcons have used at the next highest rate is Cover 1 (20%). During the previous three seasons, Shepard has averaged 0.45 FP/Rt (28th-best) vs. Cover 1. On 23% of routes, he’s pulled in 31% of receptions, 34% of his total yardage, and with a 33% increase in YPRR. Enough said.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND at TEN ($5.5K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: TEN -5.5 | O/U: 48.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Considering that I write up nearly every single impact player each week in Advanced Matchups, the chances are very high that every player listed in this piece has already been covered. And it stands true that an argument has already been made in favor of rostering Michael Pittman Jr.: Tennessee plays Cover 1 at the league’s seventh-highest rate. And he’ll face Jackrabbit Jenkins on at least half of his routes. Jenkins ranks 62nd in YPCS, 66th in FP/CS, 46th in AY/CS, and 59th in targeted passer rating.

The Bottom Line: As with Shepard, the decision to factor Pittman into my weekend plans was made before the anticipated ownership was released. If Carson Wentz (ankles) is ruled out at game time, it’s possible that Brett Hundley might end up starting under center over Jacob Eason. But we saw more evidence just last night with the Texans that, even with poor QB play, feeding a single WR with impact volume can result in impact results (9/112/0 for Brandin Cooks). We don’t need Wentz to play, nor either Hundley nor Eason to succeed. We don’t need the Colts to succeed. We just need Indy to feed their top wideout. And I believe that is exactly what they will do.

Cole Beasley, BUF vs. WAS ($4.8K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: BUF -7.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: 1-2%)

From Advanced Matchups: Cole Beasley is priced as the WR42/WR61, ranks seventh-best against Cover 4 with 0.55 FPs/route, fifth with 2.80 YPRR, and with the eighth-highest target rate at 26%. As you can see from Beasley’s DK salary underlined and bolded, this is a strict DK recommendation to take advantage of their PPR scoring.

The Bottom Line: The expectation was for Josh Allen’s ownership to take a hit after a pair of under-value outings. But the percentages indicate that the DFS community is steadfast in its support of Allen this week. Unsurprisingly, it appears nobody expects Beasley to succeed against the Washington defense. If WFT didn’t field the fourth-highest rate of Cover 4, I might’ve agreed.

Darnell Mooney, CHI at CLE ($4.3K DK | $5.6K FD | Spread: CLE -7.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

With the news that Justin Fields will start Week 3, no player on Chicago’s roster — even Allen Robinson II — benefits more than Mooney. ARob was already being provided with the level of accuracy he needs to succeed from Andy Dalton. But Mooney had been forced to rely on underneath targets from Dalton — Mooney ranks 45th with 75 air yards/game. With Fields under center and a full week of preparation, Mooney’s 4.38-speed will finally be matched with an arm able to take advantage.

As for specific matchup notes: Cleveland features top-five rates of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Fields’ arm will rule the day, but Mooney has performed particularly well when facing Cover 4. During his career, Mooney ranks 18th-best in FP/Rt vs. Cover 4. On 8% of career routes, he’s collected 15% of his yardage, and 25% of TDs when facing a four-high. And he’s done so with a 39% increase to his air yards/target and 21% increase in YPRR.

The Bottom Line: I assumed the widespread news that on Fields starting would portend an upward climb of Mooney’s ownership. It appears that is not the case, perhaps owing to Mooney’s questionable status (groin). Ownership between 3-4% places Mooney squarely on the map toward attacking GPPs with confidence — Mooney practiced all week, and the Bears have been liberal with their questionable designations this year.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

Terry McLaurin, WAS at BUF ($6.9K DK | $7.2K FD | Spread: BUF -7.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Marquise Brown, BAL at DET ($5.6K DK | $6.6K FD | Spread: BAL -8.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Chase Claypool, PIT at ($5.8K DK | $5.8K FD | Spread: PIT -3.0 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

Quintez Cephus, DET vs. BAL ($3.9K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: BAL -8.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Christian Kirk, ARI at JAX ($5.4K DK | $5.7K FD | Spread: ARI -8.0 | O/U: 51.5 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Tim Patrick, DEN vs. NYJ ($4.9K DK | $5.9K FD | Spread: DEN -10.5 | O/U: 42.0 | ExpOwn: 2-3%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Jaylen Waddle, MIA at LV ($4.6K DK | $5.5K FD | Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. WAS ($3.7K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: BUF -7.5 | O/U: 45.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Bryan Edwards, LV vs. MIA ($3.8K DK | $5.1K FD | Spread: LV -3.5 | O/U: 44.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Anthony Schwartz, CLE vs. CHI ($3.2K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: CLE -7.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Darius Slayton, NYG vs. ATL ($4.6K DK | $5.4K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL at NYG ($3.5K DK | $4.6K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: %)

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL at NYG ($4.9K DK | $6.2K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Talent? Check. Opportunity? Check. Over the first two weeks, everything seemingly pointed toward Kyle Pitts posting a breakout performance. Let’s be honest, we all know it’s coming. But Pitts hit the Philadelphia wall in Week 1 (4/31/0). He did manage to post a 5/73/0 line last week at Tampa Bay, but that still left him over 20% under floor value. But the quality of the Buccaneers’ defenders he maneuvered for those numbers are far superior to what he’ll work against this week.

Matchup notes: The Giants are providing TEs with the fifth-most FPG (20.5). And they are allowing the third-highest completion percentage (76%). Pitts has spent 73% of his snaps detached from the line. That alignment will render him the responsibility of Tae Crowder. To date, Crowder’s coverage portfolio includes the 75th-ranked YPCS (79 qualified LBs), 69th-ranked FP/CS, 75th-ranked AY/CS, and 65th-ranked targeted passer rating.

The Bottom Line: As you might’ve guessed from the information above, one thing was missing from Pitts’ previous two games. And that should prove to be the only factor that held him back. A positive matchup? Check. Should Pitts fall short of value again on Sunday, it will prove that (1) I am bullish in support of talent, (2) even the most talented of TEs requires the necessary seasoning to succeed in the NFL, and (3) that this analyst needs to provide the rookie with some time before, not only rostering him in DFS, recommending him as an overlooked GPP target.

Cole Kmet, CHI at CLE ($3.2K DK | $4.9K FD | Spread: CLE -7.0 | O/U: 44.5 | ExpOwn: <2%)

Of the 10 individuals written up in this piece, Cole Kmet is the only featured with a writeup that will not be supported with either matchup data or statistical data from Kmet’s career. If I provided the coverage data for Malcolm Smith, the individual he’ll most likely see the most, Kmet’s prospects for Week 3 would seem miniscule. But, Cleveland as a whole, has permitted the 12th-most FPG (14.9) and third-most TDs to opposing TDs.

The Bottom Line: The fuel for a Kmet tout is Justin Fields. He relied on his TEs throughout the preseason. He established a particular connection with Jesse James. If Fields wants to rely on the position now that the games count, Kmet will provide him with a substantial upgrade over James. If you choose to fade the big names at the position in favor of a low-priced punt in Week 3, Kmet is a name to consider.

Pivots (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

T.J. Hockenson, DET vs. BAL ($5.2K DK | $6.3K FD | Spread: BAL -8.0 | O/U: 50.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Jared Cook, LAC at KC ($3.9K DK | $5.3K FD | Spread: KC -6.5 | O/U: 54.5 | ExpOwn: <5%)

Punts (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Gerald Everett, SEA at MIN ($3.0K DK | $5.0K FD | Spread: SEA -2.0 | O/U: 55.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

C.J. Uzomah, CIN at PIT ($2.7K DK | $4.8K FD | Spread: PIT -3.0 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams, LAR vs. TB ($3.5K DK | $4.0K FD | Spread: TB -1.5 | O/U: 55.0 | ExpOwn: <1%)

New York Giants, NYG vs. ATL ($3.3K DK | $3.9K FD | Spread: NYG -3.0 | O/U: 47.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

Pivot (Capped at <5% Expected Ownership)

New Orleans Saints, NO at NE ($3.1K DK | $4.3K FD | Spread: NE -3.0 | O/U: 42.5 | ExpOwn: 3-4%)

Punt (Capped at <2% Expected Ownership)

Cincinnati Bengals, CIN at PIT ($K DK | *$3.4K FD *| Spread: PIT -3.0 | O/U: 43.0 | ExpOwn: <2%)

With a dedicated focus on studying game film and a faithful commitment to metrics & analytics, Huber’s specialties include DFS (college and NFL), Devy & Dynasty formats, and second-to-none fantasy analysis of high school prospects.