Barfield's Best Bets: Wild Card Round

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Barfield's Best Bets: Wild Card Round

GAME PICKS

Patriots at Bills

Bet – Bills -4 (-110, DraftKings)

Why? – Bills are rolling into the playoffs and have won four-straight by double-digit margins. Meanwhile, the Patriots are sliding and have dropped three of their last 4 games by -10, -12, and -9 point margins. Josh Allen has improved drastically in his second meeting with the Patriots in back-to-back years and now they actually have a decent run game to lean on with Devin Singletary. Also, not enough is being made of how good this Bills defense is even without All-Pro CB Tre White. Without White in their last seven games, the Bills have held opposing QBs to a 55% completion rate, 6.1 YPA, and a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The question shouldn’t be “can the Bills get over the hump?” – it should be, “can Mac Jones beat the Bills defense?”

Eagles at Buccaneers

Bet – Over 45.5 total points (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Overall, this is the best matchup of the Wild Card round from a pace perspective between these two offenses that are top-10 in seconds per play. The total dropped from 49 to 45.5 on Thursday afternoon with the weather in Tampa looking sketchy but that appears to have been premature. Most of the forecasts have the storms moving out an hour or two before kick off. The wind should still be a factor but I like this game too much to not buy the dip.

PLAYER PROPS

Saturday Games

Joe Burrow

Bet – Over 33.5 pass attempts (-115, PointsBet) & Over 258.5 passing yards (-120, BetMGM)

Why? – Over this total four times in his last 5 games. Bengals went 72% pass-heavy on early-downs in Burrow’s last two starts – which led the league by a mile in those two weeks. We have Burrow projected for 36 attempts and 285 yards.

Darren Waller

Bet – Over 58.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

Why? – Was immediately installed as a full-time player last week in his first game back – ran a route on 41-of-45 pass plays and got nine targets. Had a season-high 116 yards vs. Bengals back in Week 11 and Cincy’s TE defense has only gotten worse since then. Allowed the most receptions (8.2) and second-most yards (95.4) per game to TEs over the last five weeks of the regular season.

Josh Jacobs

Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (+110, DraftKings)

Why? – Has 4 or more receptions in all seven of the Raiders’ losses he’s played in. Averages 6 targets per game in losses and 3 targets per game in wins. Raiders are 5-point dogs here. Bengals have given up the fourth-most receptions per game to RBs (6.4).

Damien Harris

Bet – Over 0.5 Rush TD (+154, SuperBook)

Why? – Over his last 11 games, Dame has scored 14 TDs with 27 (!!) inside-10 carries in this span. Bills run defense surrendered 11 rush TDs in their final nine games.

Cole Beasley

Bet – Under 35.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – 35 or fewer yards in seven of his last nine games. Now a part-time player – has played just 48% of the snaps over his last three games. Now Manny Sanders is back. Patriots gave up the fifth-fewest yards per game to slot WRs this season.

Josh Allen

Bet – Over 8.5 carries (+105, BetMGM)

Why? – Getting way more designed carries. Has 8, 7, and 8 designed carries in three of his last five games – including 12 total carries in his last meeting against the Patriots. NE runs a ton of man coverage (fifth-most) which will open up scramble lanes, too. We have Allen projected for 10 carries.

Sunday Games

Rob Gronkowski

Bet – Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Ended the season with 7/115 and 7/137 with no Godwin or AB. Eagles allowed the most receptions (6.3) and sixth-most yards (61.5) per game to TEs. We have Gronk projected for 69 yards.

Leonard Fournette

Bet – Over 0.5 Rush TDs (+142, SuperBook) – VOID

Tom Brady

Bet – Over 270.5 passing yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – Will be windy, but rain has cleared out. Has 410 and 326 yards in his last two games with no Godwin or AB. No Fournette locks in pass-heavy plan for Bucs. We have Brady projected for 295 yards.

Giovani Bernard

Bet – Over 2.5 receptions (+115, DK) and over 15.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Grab it! Think it’s just Vaughn and Gio in the backfield today. Eagles gave up the second-most receptions to RBs this season. Gio anytime TD in the +400 range (on FanDuel and PointsBet) is a great bomb, too.

Dak Prescott

Bet – Over 36.5 pass attempts (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Over 37 pass attempts in eight of his last 10 games and the only two games he didn’t reach 37+ attempts in this span were blow-outs against the Falcons (Week 10) and Eagles (Week 18). The 49ers arguably have the best run defense out of all of the playoff teams and closed out the year second-best in YPC allowed (3.67) and second-best in FootballOutsiders’ Run Defense DVOA metrics, further solidifying a pass-heavy plan for Dak & Co.

Ezekiel Elliott

Bet – Under 70.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Averaging 59 scrimmage yards per game over his last 10 outings. 49ers gave up the third-fewest scrimmage yards per game to RBs this season.

Ezekiel Elliott

Bet – Over 0.5 rush TD (+144, SuperBook)

Why? – Way too much juice. Most Zeke anytime TD bets are in the -120 range.

Deebo Samuel

Bet – Over 60.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Easiest bet I’ve made all week. 60+ yards in four-straight. Cowboys gave up the seventh-most yards to WRs in the regular season. Wes loves the matchup.

Byron Pringle

Bet – Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Why? – 75, 35, and 56 yards in his last three games. Leads KC in routes in this span. We have Pringle projected for 48 yards.

Darrel Williams

Bet – Over 0.5 rush TD (+174, SuperBook)

Why? – Chiefs are huge favorites. Has 10 inside-10 carries in his seven starts.

MNF

Cam Akers

Bet – Under 32.5 rushing yards (-112, BetRivers)

Why? – Massive total considering Akers played just 13 snaps last week in his return. Do believe his role grows a bit but Michel is still the clear lead. We have Akers projected for 13 rushing yards.

Kyler Murray

Bet – Over 38.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Why? – 39 and 61 yards rushing in previous two meetings this year with Rams. L.A. gave up 54 yards to Tyler Huntley in Week 17 and Huntley was the only other truly mobile QB they faced all year outside of Kyler. We have Murray projected for 44 yards rushing.

Odell Beckham

Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (-115, FoxBet)

Why? – Over the last five weeks of the regular season, Arizona got tattooed for the third-most receptions (77), fifth-most yards (927), and a league-high in TDs (13) by opposing wide receivers. OBJ had 6/77/1 in their last meeting with the Cardinals. We have OBJ projected for 4 receptions.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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