Buccaneers at Eagles
Bet – Over 52.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – Because the Bucs’ are dominating on offense and their pass defense is struggling mightily, four of their 5 games have gone off and combined for 58 or more points. Tampa’s opponents are throwing the ball against them at an incredible 18% above expectation because their front-seven is stymying running backs to just 39.6 yards per game. This all sets up for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to continue to lean heavily on the pass in this matchup. Philadelphia is 71.2% pass-heavy when trailing (seventh-highest rate) and if they are behind this entire game as the spread suggests, there should be a ton of play volume on both sides of the ball. Because both offenses play fast, throw a ton, and the Buccaneers secondary continues to see a ton of volume – this game has all of the makings of a shootout.
Chargers at Ravens
Bet – Chargers +2.5 (+100, FOXBet)
Why? – Couldn’t resist this. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS this year and looking like a juggernaut. Baltimore’s defense has shown massive cracks this season, giving up 491, 405, and 513 total yards of offense to the three good attacks they’ve faced (Raiders, Chiefs, and Colts) while the Lions and Broncos (with Drew Lock) were the only teams they’ve held in check. The Raiders (27 points), Chiefs (36), and Colts (31) all cashed in with big point totals against the Ravens as well. Might bet Chargers ML here, too.
Texans at Colts
Bet – Texans +10 (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – These two teams are much closer than you think. The Colts are getting so much public support only because of their perception – not because they are actually a good team. The Texans (30%) and Colts (31%) have led on a nearly identical percentage of their offensive plays and while Indy has a better offense, it’s not by a massive margin. Indianapolis is scoring 2.06 points per drive (16th) while Houston is at 1.74 (27th). The Texans have contended in all but one game (at Bills) this season and I think this game projects to be fairly close, especially if both offenses continue to play slow. Overall, these two teams combine for the second-slowest matchup on the Week 6 slate in adjusted combined pace. That also bodes well for a tighter contest because if both teams are draining the clock, it’ll lead to fewer possessions in the game.
Cowboys at Patriots
Bet – Cowboys -3 (-115, WynnBet)
Why? – This is a bad line. The Cowboys rank third-best in yards gained per play (only the Ravens and Rams are better) and second-best in points scored per drive (only the Chiefs are better). Meanwhile, the Patriots have put up just 16, 25, 13, 17, and 25 points this year.
Bet – Under 62.5 total yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Bucs’ front-seven is giving up the sixth-fewest scrimmage yards per game to RBs (99.8), including the fewest rushing yards by far (39.6). Sanders has been held under 63 scrimmage yards in four-straight.
Bet – Over 12.5 carries (-125, BetMGM)
Why? – It seems like Bruce Arians has finally come to his senses with Ronald Jones. Over the last two weeks, Leonard Fournette has out-touched (39 to 12) and out-snapped (109 to 23) Ronald Jones by massive margins. Buccaneers are huge favorites against an Eagles front-seven that is facing the fifth-most rush attempts per game (26.4). We have Fournette projected for 16 carries.
Bet – Anytime TD (+140, DraftKings)
Why? – Even though he hasn’t scored since Week 2, Godwin leads the team in end-zone targets (5) while AB has 4, Gronk has 4, and Evans has 3. No Gronk again boosts Godwin’s TD expectation.
Bet – Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Hurts is averaging 61.8 rushing yards per start. Eagles will have to chase this game and that will lead to Hurts throwing and scrambling a ton.
Bet – Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115, FOXBet)
Why? – Jacksonville is currently running the ball at the fifth-highest rate above expectation (+7.2%) and are in a prime spot to hammer James Robinson. The Dolphins run defense has crumbled and is giving up the fifth-most RB rush yards per game (123.4). We have Robinson projected for 95 yards.
Bet – Under 47.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Has been at five or fewer carries in 3 of his past 4 games and the Dolphins are dead last in rushing yards per game because of their poor offensive line. We have Gaskin projected for just 21 rushing yards.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+100, BetMGM)
Why? – No DeVante Parker again and Tua is back. It’s a tiny sample, but Waddle (7 targets) was Tua’s favorite target (on 31 throws) before he got hurt. Jags’ are giving up the 11th-most receptions per game to WRs (14).
Bet – Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Overall, L.A. has the worst tight end defense in the league right now by the numbers and are giving up 2.43 fantasy points per target (most) and 81.3 yards per game (second-most) to the position. After a bad opening game (3/20 receiving), Andrews is averaging 6.5 receptions and 95 yards per game over his last four outings. We have Andrews projected for 72 yards.
Bet – Under 24.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Has been held under 10 yards in 4-of-5 games and the Bears are giving up the seventh-fewest yards per game to TEs (35.6).
Bet – Over 3.5 receptions (+105, BetMGM)
Why? – Got lucky and bet this a few hours before Terry McLaurin’s hamstring injury was announced. Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to TEs (6.2).
Bet – Over 49.5 yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why? – Wes Huber is a huge fan of Thielen’s matchup this week.
Bet – Under 35.5 attempts (-125, BetMGM)
Why? – Has been under 36 attempts in 4-of-5 games and the only reason he threw it 38 times last week is because of OT. The Lions are the only team yet to lead in a game so far and, as a result, are facing a league-low 27 attempts per game.
Bet – Over 45.5 rushing yards (-120, FOXBet)
Why? – This is listed in the 50-52 range in most books. Played on 70% and 79% of Chiefs’ snaps in two spot starts last year without CEH and handled 23 carries for 124 yards combined in those games.
Bet – Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – This is listed in the 50-52 range in most books. Only got 3 targets in last week’s shootout, which isn’t great. But Jarvis Landry is still out and the Cardinals secondary is still terrible. Arizona has given up over 48 yards to 11 different WRs already. OBJ has to make it 12… right?! We have OBJ projected for 56 yards.
Bet – Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why? – Has rushed for 109 yards on just 15 carries over the last two weeks in losses. Now the Broncos are home-favorites, which should lead to more volume for Williams. We have him projected for 68 yards.
Bet – Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115, WynnBet)
Why? – Has set back-to-back season-highs in snaps and turned in 3/27 and 5/46 receiving. Texans should have to throw to stay in the game as 10-point dogs. We have Johnson projected for 31 receiving yards.
Bet – Over 74.5 rushing yards (-115, WynnBet) Why? – Slight value with this being in the 77-78 range in most books. This sets up as a huge spot for Najee Harris as huge home-favorites over a Seattle defense that is giving up the most carries (29.2) and the fourth-most yards (126.8) per game to RBs. We have Harris projected for 83 yards.
Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (+105, FOXBet) Why? – Nice plus money. Meyers has 6, 9, and 8 receptions in the Patriots three losses this year. Since the start of the 2020 season, Meyers has averaged 6.8 receptions per game when the Pats’ are 3-point underdogs or larger.
Bet – Over 49.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) Why? – Even with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton likely back, Toney will have a near every-down role with Kenny Golladay sidelined. If we can assume rational coaching, Toney should be the Giants No. 1 target on Sunday. We have Toney projected for 70 yards.
ROI THIS SEASON
Game Picks: Spreads / Totals / ML -8%
Player Props +12%