Barfield's Best Bets: Week 18


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Barfield's Best Bets: Week 18


Bears at Vikings

Bet – Vikings -4 (-110, BetMGM)

Why? – Vikings have everything to play for here despite being dead towards the playoffs. Zimmer is coaching for his job and Cousins is auditioning for his future with the Vikings as well. Bears take a massive ding with Dalton under center. The Bears offense has been borderline inept with Dalton at quarterback as they’ve scored either a FG or TD on just 29.1% of their possessions in Dalton’s four starts. Keep in mind, two of those games came against the lowly Lions and Giants


Saturday Games

Tyreek Hill

Bet – Over 63.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Broncos down their two boundary CBs (Surtain and Darby) and SS (Jackson). Got 10 targets last week after being limited in Week 16.

Darrel Williams

Bet – Over 0.5 rushing TDs (+144, SuperBook)

Why? – Has handled 10 of the Chiefs 19 inside-10 carries in his six starts. Chiefs have the third-highest team total for Week 18.

Sunday Games

Gabriel Davis

Bet – Over 38.5 yards (-110, DK)

Why? – Over this total in all five games that he’s been on the field for at least 50% of the snaps. Emmanuel Sanders very doubtful. Jets stink.

Tyler Huntley

Bet – Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – 40+ rushing yards in all four starts / relief appearances. Averaging 53 rush YPG per start. Steelers have allowed Allen (44 rush yards), Fields (45), Herbert (90), and Lamar (55) to cruise past this total.

Julio Jones

Bet – Under 32.5 receiving yards (-112, BetRivers)

Why? – Part-time player (43% snap rate) in his last three games. Coming off COVID list. Hamstring still nagging him. We have Julio projected for 18 yards.

Darnell Mooney

Bet – Over 53.5 yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Averages 5.6 receptions, 69.9 yards, and 14.3 fantasy points per game when Fields does not start. We have Mooney projected for 73 yards.

Antonio Gibson

Bet – Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Removed from injury report. Needs 109 rushing yards for 1K on the season. Also grabbed Gibson over 0.5 rush TD on SuperBook at +172.

Laquon Treadwell

Bet – Over 40.5 yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Over this total in six-straight. Jags’ are huge underdogs and will have to throw a ton again.

Kenny Golladay

Bet – Under 37.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Under this total in six of his last 8 games. Fromm starting. We have Golladay with 34 yards.

Deebo Samuel

Bet – Over 54.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Favorite bet of the week. Over this total in three-straight. Priced as if Lance is starting – it will be JimmyG under center. We have Deebo projected for 76 yards.

Rob Gronkowski

Bet – Over 64.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Gronk specifically needs seven catches (to reach 55), 85 receiving yards (to reach 750 yards), and/or three TDs (to reach nine TDs) to unlock 500K bonuses. Bet Brady knows it and tries to get his guy paid.

Rashaad Penny

Bet – Over 0.5 rush TDs (+152, SuperBook)

Why? – Has 5 TDs in his last four games. Too much juice to ignore.

Zach Ertz

Bet – Over 43.5 receiving yards (-114, BetRivers)

Why? – Has 11, 13, and 9 targets in three games without Nuk Hopkins. Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most yards to TEs over the last five weeks. We have Ertz projected for 52 yards.

Justin Jackson

Bet – Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Has 9+ carries and 35+ yards in four-straight. We have Jackson projected for 45 yards.

Austin Ekeler

Bet – Over 0.5 rush TDs (+155, SuperBook)

Why? – Way too much juice. Ekeler has a rushing TD in four-straight and 8 carries inside-the-10 in this span. Raiders have allowed six rushing TDs in their last 5 games.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.