Top Week 10 DFS Values


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Top Week 10 DFS Values

Supermodel Tyra Banks has amassed $95M in earnings throughout her 30-year career.

Similarly, I have a model. It’s super – a true thing of beauty. And, while it hasn’t earned $95M, it has made me quite a bit of money over the years.

That model is the DFS SuperModel. Each week it will highlight the top-25 most mispriced players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While I can’t tell you what exactly goes into the DFS SuperModel, I can tell you what does not go into it – namely, our projections. For the most part, you should be deferring to those – primarily the FPTS/$ column you’ll find here – or use both together.

That’s what I’ll be doing in this article, using both resources to help me highlight the top main slate DFS Value Plays in any given week. Here’s Week 10:

Note: This is just the first-pass publish of the DFS SuperModel. The SuperModel and our projections will continue to update throughout the remainder of the week.

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

Model (DK: +2,471, FD: +1,694)

With Christian McCaffrey out for Week 10, Davis isn’t just a top value, he’s arguably the single-best value we’ve had all season. As per the SuperModel, he’s mispriced by $2,471 on DraftKings and $1,694 on FanDuel.

From Weeks 3-8, without McCaffrey, Davis ranked 8th in XFP per game (18.2) and 6th in FPG (17.6). Over this span, he averaged 13.8 carries and 5.8 targets per game on 80% of the snaps, and against the league’s 2nd-toughest RB schedule (-3.51). Unfortunately, he gets another brutal matchup this week, as Tampa Bay ranks 3rd-best in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (-5.3), but that still barely moves the needle when considering his salary – he ranks 44th among RBs in price on DraftKings ($4,000) and 38th on FanDuel ($5,400). Bump him up even more if Reggie Bonnafon (ankle) sits out.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

Model (DK: +1,105)

Jones ranks 3rd best in XFP per game (20.7), 4th-best in XFP% (26.6%), and 4th-best in FPG (21.3). He gets a dream matchup this week against a Jaguars defense that ranks 3rd-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs (+6.2). And with Christian McCaffrey out, Michael Thomas back (capping Kamara’s upside in the passing game), and Dalvin Cook off of the main slate, it’s hard to argue against him as the overall RB1 of the week. And yet, he’s just $7,100 on DraftKings, about $2,000 cheaper than where the typical RB1 (on any given week) might be priced.

Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

Projections (DK: 2.74X, FD: 2.10X)

According to our projections, Duke Johnson is popping as a top-2 RB value on both sites. Here’s what we had to say about him in Start/Sit:

David Johnson played just 7 snaps before exiting early due to injury (concussion). In his absence, Duke Johnson played on 50 of 55 snaps, earning 16 of 16 carries and 4 of 4 targets. That’s elite bell-cow usage, typically good enough for any league-average talent to flirt with RB1 production. His Week 10 matchup against the Browns is somewhere between neutral and slightly below-average, but start him with confidence as a high-end RB2 this week if David Johnson sits out.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Projections (DK: 2.67X, FD: 1.99X)

Miles Sanders has reached at least 75 yards from scrimmage in 5 of 5 games, averaging 105.0 per game (6th-most). He ranks 11th in FPG (16.3) and 12th in XFP per game (15.9), though both of those numbers are somewhat skewed due to injury. (He played on 42% of the snaps in his last game due to injury, but averaged 79% across his other 4 games.) Favored by 3.5-points, he gets a Giants defense giving up the 9th-most FPG to opposing RBs, and the 2nd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs. Keep in mind, Sanders ranks 7th among all RBs in targets per game (5.2).

He’s a glaring top value on both sites, ranking 3rd among slate-eligible RBs in our projections (17.1), but just 9th in salary on DraftKings ($6,400) and 6th on FanDuel ($7,700).

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

Projections (DK: 3.06X, FD: 2.16X)

Adams is no doubt expensive, priced at $9,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. And still, he’s a top-2 WR value for us on both sites.

Through 5 healthy games (Week 2 excluded), Adams averages 25.5 XFP per game and 32.4 FPG. He’s hit 30-plus fantasy points in 4 of 5 healthy games. For perspective, no other player has more than 2 games with 30 or more fantasy points this year.

Adams averages 13.2 targets, 10.0 catches, 127.8 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game. Over his last 9 games (Week 2 still excluded), he averages 28.8 FPG. Since 2018, he averages 21.5 FPG, hitting at least 16.0 fantasy points in 82% of these games. For perspective, Michael Thomas averages 20.7 and 68% over the same span.

Some sort of regression seems inevitable, but probably not this week. The Jaguars are giving up the most fantasy points per passing attempt (0.57) to opposing QBs, and they’ve allowed 4 different receivers to reach 80-plus yards and score a touchdown against them over their last two games.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Model (FD: +928)

On FanDuel, Johnson ranks as the 2nd-best value of the slate (behind only Mike Davis) as per the DFS SuperModel. Here’s what we had to say about him in Start/Sit:

Johnson has played in 7 games this year. In 3 games he exited early in the 1st quarter due to injury (1 he returned but wasn’t necessarily effective or involved after the injury). But he saw at least 10 targets in each of the other 4 games, averaging 12.3 targets, 19.6 XFP, and 19.5 FPG in those games. In other words, when he’s suffered an in-game injury, he’s understandably struggled. When he’s been healthy, he’s put up mid-WR1 production on mid-WR1 usage. In game injuries are pretty fluky and random, and he’s just been incredibly unlucky in that regard. But start him with confidence this week against a Bengals defense that is giving up the 10th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs.

All of this being said, Chase Claypool is right behind Johnson on FanDuel, mispriced by $833 per the SuperModel. He totals 22 targets and 29.5 fantasy points over the last two weeks.

Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers

Model (FD: +794)

Behind Johnson and Claypool, Anderson ranks as the 3rd-best WR value on FanDuel as per the DFS SuperModel ($794).

Anderson ranks 8th in targets per game (9.1), 12th in XFP per game (15.1), and 8th in YPG (83.4). He’s gotten a little unlucky in the touchdown department, failing to find the end zone in each of his last 8 games, but is due for a regression in that regard. And has offered a sky-high floor in spite of that bad luck. He’s glaringly mispriced as just the 21st-highest-priced WR on the slate, but the matchup is difficult. Tampa Bay is giving up the 9th-fewest FPG to opposing outside WRs. However, keep an eye on Tampa’s best CB Carlton Davis who missed practice on Thursday with a sore knee. If he sits out Anderson jumps from a good value to a great play. If he plays, the threat of a potential shadow (Davis has arguably been the league’s best shadow CB over the past two seasons) makes him risky.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

Model (DK: +813)

On DraftKings ($5,000), Parker ranks as our top overall WR value as per the DFS Super Model (+813). Here’s what Wes Huber had to say about him in Advanced Matchups:

[T]ua Tagovailoa and DeVante Parker make for an intriguing stack in Week 10. What makes Parker such a valuable commodity this week? DP is somewhat similar to Stefon Diggs in that he does very well against Cover 1 and a variety of zone coverages.

Parker has hit a wall over his last 25 games when facing zone shells with at least four defensive backs dropping deep: Cover 4 and 6. He’s been better than average against Cover 2, but is simply one of the top WRs in the game when facing a Cover 3 scheme. While he’s not going to give away too much during a post-game interview about Parker’s strengths, here’s what Ryan Fitzpatrick was quoted as saying after Parker set a new career-high with 10 receptions in Week 4 at Seattle:

The loss of Preston Williams to injured reserve will only put additional emphasis on making Parker the centerpiece of the offense. In addition, the Dolphins have reverted to passing on two-thirds of snaps since Myles Gaskin also landed on IR. When Parker has gone against a Cover 3 since the beginning of his breakout 2019 season (21 percent of routes), his FP/Rt has jumped by 21 percent, his YPRR by 47 percent, and his air yards per targets has increased by 10 percent. Parker is simply a no-brainer in Week 10 with value to spare at his current salaries.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions

Model (DK: +1,001, FD: +757)

In a week with a lot of TE value (seriously, a lot), Hockenson ranks first in our projections on FanDuel and ranks 2nd on DraftKings as per the SuperModel.

Since Week 6, Hockenson ranks 2nd in FPG (13.8) and 2nd in XFP per game (15.3). He’s finally seen an uptick in target volume with Kenny Golladay out (recording 18 targets over his last 2 games), which he’ll now pair with phenomenal target quality. He ranks 46th among all players in targets (49) but ranks 1st in targets inside the 5-yard line (6), 2nd in end zone targets (9), and 2nd in XTD per target (0.11). He gets a top-5 matchup this week, against a Washington defense that is good everywhere – everywhere but to TEs, where they’re abysmal. They’re giving up the 6th-most FPG to opposing TEs (15.4), which represents a league-high 32.6% of their total receiving FPG allowed.

Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos

Model (DK: +1,026, FD: +886)

Noah Fant actually ranks higher than Hockenson on both sites, but he’s a little hard to trust after he re-aggravated a lingering ankle injury in Week 9.

Coming into last week’s game, Fant ranked 6th in FPG per game (11.9), 5th in XFP per game (11.9), and 5th in targets per game (7.2), earning between 6 and 10 targets in each of his last 4 games. The matchup is below average, and the injury has me nervous, but he is at least a little mispriced.

Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Model (DK: +854, FD: +707)

If looking for a slightly more expensive option, Waller ranks just below Hockenson on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as per the SuperModel.

Waller ranks 1st among TEs in XFP per game (15.5), and ranks 3rd in FPG (14.2). Excluding Week 8 (a game that featured 45 mph winds) and Week 3 against the Patriots (where he was hurt), Waller is averaging 10.2 targets per game and 17.1 FPG. Those numbers would rank 4th- and 16th-best among WRs. And yet, in a week without Travis Kelce and George Kittle, Waller ranks just $5,900 on DraftKings… or what would rank just 19th among WRs. He’s a solid value in a neutral on-paper matchup against the Broncos.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Model (DK: +703, FD: +517)

If looking to pay down, Goedert is another strong value, but with injury concerns similar to Fant. He played a full complement of the team’s snaps in Week 8 prior to the bye (84%), but clearly wasn’t operating at full health, earning just 1 target on the day. Still, prior to injury, Goedert averaged 8.5 targets and 15.6 FPG through two games. Those numbers would both rank 3rd-best among all TEs, and, theoretically, his expectation should be higher now with Zach Ertz out. The good news is he’s now off the injury report, and he is pretty badly mispriced on DraftKings ($4,200).

Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Model (DK: +557) / Projections (DK: 3.45X)

For the second week in a row, Carr is popping as our best QB value on DraftKings (per the SuperModel), though it’s close between him and Daniel Jones according to our projections. And we’re recommending you pay up for a more expensive QB on FanDuel. But here’s the argument:

Excluding a Week 8 game with 45 mph winds, Carr has easily had the league’s toughest QB schedule to-date, worth -2.25 FPG off of his per-game average. But this is his second-softest matchup to-date, against a Denver pass funnel defense that ranks 7th-worst in schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+1.5). Basically, this matchup should be worth a boost of about 3.75 FPG to his current FPG average, pushing him from (Week 8 still excluded) 19th (18.6) to 9th in FPG (22.4). Matchups aren’t everything, but this is at least notable, as is the fact that Denver’s one of the league’s best run defenses, implying Las Vegas will have to do most of their damage through the air this week. As just the 19th-highest-priced QB of the slate ($5,400), he’s a strong value, but far from a must-play QB for cash or GPPs.

Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as Fantasy Points’ Chief Executive Officer.