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The Everything Report: 2025 Week 6

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The Everything Report: 2025 Week 6

You spent countless hours researching for your fantasy draft. Or maybe you just tailed all of my “Exodia” plays and felt amazing about it. Either way, now is the time when fantasy championships are secured or fumbled. The instant gratification of your draft has passed, and we’re now faced with the avalanche of information that cascades from each week of NFL football.

Luckily for you, I’m here to sift through all of it, separate the signal from the noise, and show you how to continue managing your rosters for a full season of success. Welcome to “The Week 6 Everything Report.”

This would be an impossible task if not for the army of ball-knowing film charters and the Fantasy Points Data Suite powered by their insights at our disposal. This is our edge.

Among the best tools for our task are “Expected Fantasy Points” (XFP). This metric tells us how many fantasy points a perfectly average player would have scored given perfectly average luck, taking into account the volume, location, and depth (among several other factors) of all their targets and touches. While your competition will primarily be tracking a player’s fantasy points (or perhaps their raw touch total), we can precisely identify both positive and negative regression candidates by comparing a player’s XFP to their actual output.

But it isn’t always that easy. Some players and offenses are just very good, making them capable of consistently outperforming their XFP over the entire season. The reverse is also true. Some players or teams are just bad, and will continue to fall short of their volume-based expectation all year. Over the course of the year, many players’ roles will grow, and others’ will shrink. Some power-law offenses will provide unexpected explosions of fantasy production, and others will sputter. To make sense of it all, we’ll reach deep into our toolbox of data to paint you the most complete picture possible, covering every relevant situation each week.

Let’s get into the takeaways.

Top-30 XFP Leaderboard

3 Key Takeaways

1. The Parity Problem in the NFL & Fantasy

There’s a disturbing lack of parity in today’s NFL. On some level, we already knew this coming in — the Chiefs have made five of the last six Super Bowls, and the Eagles or 49ers have made it in five of the last eight — but 2025 has taken it to another level.

More so than the good teams being “too good,” the bad teams are downright awful.

This year, 9 teams have a point differential of -7.0 points per game or worse — easily the most in the last five seasons.

What’s driving it? Start with offensive line play and quarterback play.

  • Seven offensive lines are allowing pressure on at least 42% of dropbacks (zero did last year).

  • Seven offenses are generating 132 or fewer catchable air yards per game (just two last year).

Five of those 9 teams were pegged by Fantasy Points’ OL Guru Scott DiBenedetto as bottom-12 units before the start of the season. Three are now starting backup QBs. And then there is the 9th and final team, the Saints — the team Vegas and everyone else expected to draft 1st overall in April.

It’s gotten so bad that when I write next year’s Draft Guide, I’m making a note to severely penalize all players on teams with bottom-12 projected offensive lines. This year, that meant the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, and Giants — and sure enough, every one of those offenses has looked non-viable. The quarterbacks have no time in the pocket, and the running backs are getting hit before they can even take a step. I’m honestly starting to wonder if the offensive line, in totality, might be more important than the quarterback — outside of the truly elite or truly terrible QBs, of course.

The trickle-down effect to fantasy has been obvious. Some of these offenses are just totally dead, perhaps even from a fantasy perspective — Tony Pollard leads the Titans with a pathetic 11.3 FPG. And then you have so many more legitimately great players rotting on an offense that looks totally dead — Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Ashton Jeanty, Alvin Kamara, etc.

And I’m inclined to believe things are only going to get worse. The winless Jets might start spending more time looking at their 2026 draft seeding than their next opponent. The hapless Saints might start selling off assets well before the trade deadline.

And it’s not just the offenses — there are some historically bad defenses in today’s NFL. There might even be some defenses that are worse than Josh Allen is great. Or at least…

  • The Cowboys are giving up 27.5 FPG to opposing QBs — that’s +3.3 more than Josh Allen’s FPG average. And it’s not like they’ve faced a murderer’s row of opponents. Russell Wilson nearly dropped 40 on them and got benched the following week.

  • QB1s against Baltimore, Miami, and Pittsburgh are also outscoring the current QB4 by FPG.

  • The Titans, Bears, Dolphins, Jets, and Bengals are equally awful against RBs. RB1s against them are outscoring the current RB5 (James Cook).

So what’s the actionable takeaway? There might not be one — except to embrace the chaos. Treat your redraft teams more like DFS lineups:

1) Attack matchups.

C.J. Stroud just posted the best road performance of his career — 28.8 fantasy points, 8.2 more than his previous road high. No surprise: the Ravens had roughly 58% of their salary cap inactive, missing three starting defensive linemen, one starting linebacker, and three starters in the secondary.

There are a lot of bad offenses in 2025, but it might be impossible for an offense to look bad against this current Ravens defense.

2) Be reactive. Be quick to change as the NFL changes. Work the waiver wire like you’re getting paid overtime.

Rico freaking Dowdle just finished as the overall RB1 in Week 5, racking up 32.4 fantasy points and 234 yards from scrimmage — the most by any player in any game this season. And he wasn’t alone: fellow “RB2s” Jacorey Croskey-Merritt (28.0), Rachaad White (23.1), and Michael Carter (18.3) also cracked the top 10.

This game, which we all love, is a chaotic one. Be someone who thrives in chaos.


Scott Barrett combines a unique background in philosophy and investing alongside a lifelong love of football and spreadsheets to serve as Fantasy Points’ Chief Executive Officer.