Last week was absolutely dreadful, one of worst weeks of NFL/fantasy analysis I can remember in quite some time. Hopefully, that means I’m due to get some more luck (lost one by a half a yard last week, for example) and the NFL cooperates and things play out as they should.
Last week’s record: 4-11
Season record: 69-74
Dalvin Cook (Min, vs. Dal) OVER 97.5 rushing yards on DK – We know it’s coming, and the guy got 34 touches last week. With the Vikings closing in on being in the mix for the playoff mix, Mike Zimmer isn’t going to mess around with a bad Cowboys team in Minnesota. The Cowboys are allowing 126.6 rushing yards per game to RBs on the season and 127 yards and 5.3 YPC to RBs in their last four.
Chase Claypool (Pit, at Jax) OVER 45.5 receiving yards on DK – He’s still very involved with 4/56/2 receiving on 10 targets with a 21.7% target share, and they just put #1 pick CJ Henderson on IR. They also will welcome veteran CB DJ Hayden back, and he’s been their slot corner, so it may not be a big JuJu Smith-Schuster game.
Willie Snead (Bal, at Jax) OVER 33.5 receiving yards on DK – Snead has 4+ catches in 3 straight coming out of their Week 8 bye, and Lamar Jackson looks much more comfortable throwing over the middle and in the intermediate to short areas, so Snead can get this easily on 2-3 catches.
Damien Harris (NE, at Hou) OVER 63.5 rushing yards on DK – It seems dangerous because he’s banged up and Sony Michel is now lurking, but he’s averaging 88 rushing yards a game his last four at 5.7 YPC and has the best matchup possible against a Texans defense that’s allowed 230+ rushing yards to three different teams this season and have not mastered tackle football. He’s been their identity on offense, so I have to ride the momentum of Harris into this beautiful matchup.
Derrick Henry (Ten, at Bal) OVER 86.5 rushing yards on DK – I have to go with this one with DT Brandon Williams and DE Calais Campbell not expected to play. The Ravens have been noticeably worse against the run with Williams out over the last 1-2 years, and no Campbell is huge. Heck, they’re giving up 5.5 YPC and 101 rushing yards per game their last four with those guys.
Miles Sanders (Phi, at Cle) OVER 14.5 rushing attempts on DK – I’ve given up predicting production for Sanders for now, but with Myles Garrett out and a very winnable game this week for the struggling Eagles, someone should be fired if Sanders, who looked great last week, doesn’t get at least 15 carries.
Terry McLaurin (Was, vs. Cin) OVER 73.5 receiving yards on DK – We know he’s getting 7 catches, since he’s had 7 catches in four straight. He’s seen 7+ targets in every game this season and THREE different Steelers WRs posted 21+ FP against the Bengals last week, including #1 guy Diontae Johnson, who logged 6/116/1 receiving.
Keenan Allen (LAC, vs. NYJ) OVER 71.5 receiving yards on DK – The Jets just put solid slot corner Brian Poole on IR and they play a lot of zone, which Allen crushes. They are seriously undermanned in the secondary after cutting disappointing veteran CB Pierre Desir, so Allen is looking good here at home.
Mark Andrews (Bal, vs. Ten) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK – It seems like the Ravens passing game will focus on throwing the ball in the middle of the field once again, since that’s where Lamar Jackson is most comfortable throwing it. Andrews snapped out of his funk last week with 7/61 receiving and a season-high 9 targets, and I think 6-7 more targets are coming his way here. No Nick Boyle helps, and S Kenny Vacarro out also helps.
Marquise Brown (Bal, vs. Ten) OVER 3.5 receptions on DK – No way I’d go with his yardage totals, since he and Lamar have been really struggling, but it feels like they are about to turn a small corner throwing the ball, and the outside Titan CBs are very beatable, so I expect Hollywood to catch at least 4 balls.
Also:
Michael Pittman (Ind, vs. GB) OVER 46.5 receiving yards on DK
Matt Ryan (Atl, at NO) OVER 23.5 completion on DK
Jared Cook (NO, vs. Atl) OVER 25.5 yards on FanDuel
Mecole Hardman (KC at LV) OVER 39.5 yards on DK
JD McKissic (Was vs. Cin) OVER 4.5 reception on DK
A.J. Green (Cin) under 44.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 49.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 31.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
