2025 Week 10 DFS Coverage Shells

I’m excited to be back with another DFS article, writing up on some passing/receiving matchups on the Sunday main slate based on defensive coverages, personnel usage, schematic tendencies, and more.

The following teams are on a bye in Week 10:

• Cincinnati Bengals

• Dallas Cowboys

• Kansas City Chiefs

• Tennessee Titans

The Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts play in Germany on Sunday morning, so they’re not part of the Sunday main slate.

8 of the 10 games on the main slate will be played in the elements, so it’s essential to keep an eye on the weather as the weekend progresses.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

NE @ TB

The New England Patriots (7-2) head south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Buccaneers are currently 2.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 48.5 points.

TB is coming off their bye week, while NE is coming off a 24-23 victory over ATL.

Sunday’s game is projected to have a temperature in the low 70s with clear skies. Both of these defenses are good overall, but they’re stronger against the run relative to the pass. NE and TB rank top five among defenses in EPA/rush allowed as well as rush success rate allowed.

Offensively, both teams struggle running the ball. They each rank in the bottom 10 in EPA/rush and rush success rate.

Drake Maye ($6,400) is priced as the DK QB4, and Baker Mayfield ($6,200) is priced as the QB5 on the Sunday main slate.

Thursday’s injury report for both teams:

TB WR Chris Godwin hasn’t played since Week 5 and won’t be back anytime soon:

TB RB Bucky Irving hasn’t played since Week 4 and also won’t play on Sunday.

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

Neither NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,400) nor NE WR Kayshon Boutte ($5,000) has practiced over the last two days.

Defensively, NE ranks 12th in man coverage rate (27%). They rank top ten in usage of Cover 1 (23%), Cover 2 (21%), and Cover 4 (20%), respectively.

With TB’s injuries between WR Chris Godwin and WR Mike Evans, their 12 personnel usage has increased. Defensively, NE happens to be much worse defending 12 personnel than they have defending 11 personnel:

NE stays light defensively. On early downs, NE plays out of nickel (5 DBs on field) on 76% of their defensive snaps, 4th-highest in the NFL. When offenses go in 12P on early downs, NE is at 62% nickel, which ranks 3rd-highest among defenses.

TB rookie WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) is priced as the DK WR6 on the main slate. On the season, Egbuka is the league WR21 in expected DK PPG based on volume (14.2) and the WR12 based on actual PPG (15.8).

Egbuka will be tested by NE CB Christian Gonzalez this Sunday. Last week vs NE, ATL WR1 Drake London garnered 14 targets and recorded 118 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. Egbuka is similar to London in the sense that he’s the clear top target earner in his offense, so London’s big-time game vs NE is encouraging for Egbuka since Gonzalez has done a good job limiting opposing WRs most of the year.

However, there might be more value in grabbing a few cheaper pass catchers on TB.

Let’s look at TB WRs Tez Johnson ($4,500) vs Sterling Shepard ($4,200).

Both have seen their roles increase after the Godwin/Evans injuries, but the devil is in the details. Over the team’s last two games, Johnson owns a 70% overall snap share, and Shepard is at 54%. However, in 12 personnel (2-WR sets), Johnson is the primary WR on the field alongside Egbuka, while Shepard hasn’t seen the field at all.

Cade Otton ($3,900) is priced as the TE8. Over the team’s last two games, Cade Otton and Tez Johnson are 2nd/3rd to Emeka Egbuka in overall target share as well as first-read target share. Both Otton/Johnson have averaged more PPG than Egbuka during this span:

Defensively, NE allows the 2nd-lowest first-read throw percentage to opponents this season (60%). I think pairing Tez Johnson and Cade Otton together is a strong value play this week, and if you’re set on rostering Emeka Egbuka then I strongly consider pairing one of the other two with him, given their relatively cheap costs.

As for TB defensively, they rank 9th in two-high usage (56%). It’s also worth noting that TB’s zone coverage usage has increased throughout the season:

Bucs HC Todd Bowles also likes to blitz. TB ranks 4th among defenses in blitz rate this season at 36%.

NE doesn’t drop back vs two-high shells very often. Among offenses, NE has the 3rd-lowest dropback rate vs two-high (40%) but the 13th-highest dropback rate vs zone (72%).

Stefon Diggs ($5,800) is priced as the main slate WR14. Diggs ranks top ten among 107 qualifying pass catchers in targets per route run vs two-high looks (0.28).

The NE target rates vs zone are pretty distributed, but Diggs stands out vs two-high:

NE has played a light schedule up to this point and now find themselves as road underdogs. This is similar to their Week 5 road win at BUF, where Stefon Diggs finished with 12 targets and 146 receiving yards.

LA @ SF

The Los Angeles Rams (6-2) travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers (6-3) at 4:25 PM EST on Sunday. The Rams are currently 4.5-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 49.5 points.

LA is coming off a 34-10 win over NO, while SF is coming off a 34-24 win over the NYG.

Matthew Stafford ($6,500) is priced as the main slate QB,3 and Mac Jones ($5,000) is priced just outside the top 15 QBs.

These teams previously met in Week 5, with SF winning on the road in OT, 26-23.

Despite this and the same starting QBs as in the first matchup, LA is 4.5-point road favorites this weekend after opening as 3-3.5-point favorites earlier in the week.

SF is just riddled with injuries:

Both offenses rank near the top ten in plays per game and seconds elapsed per play, meaning they play at a high tempo. There were 152 total plays in the Week 5 matchup (which went into OT).

The 49.5 point game total is tied as the 2nd-highest on the main slate, and the Rams own the 3rd-highest implied team total on the main slate (27).

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

Offensively, the Rams rank 1st in neutral dropback rate over the last month of the season (66%).

Puka Nacua ($8,700) is priced as the main slate WR1. Last week was the first time Nacua played since Week 6, as he missed Week 7 due to injury and LA had their bye in Week 8. In last week’s win over NO, Nacua caught all 7 of his 7 targets, one of which was a touchdown, recorded 95 receiving yards, and 22.8 DK points.

On the season, Nacua is the WR10 in expected PPG based on volume (16.7) but the WR1 in actual PPG (23.5).

His teammate Davante Adams ($7,700) is priced as the main slate WR5. On the season, Adams is the WR2 in expected PPG (18.9) and the WR9 in actual PPG (17.0).

All in all, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have played In 7 games together this season. In those 7 games, Nacua owns a 38% first-read target share compared to Adams at 28%. Nacua owns a 30% overall target share compared to Adams at 25%, and Nacua owns a 0.37 targets per route run (TPRR) compared to Adams at 0.28.

Over the last month, however, Davante Adams has been the superior fantasy weapon:

SF has been decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball, but it’s been notably catastrophic on defense. They lost All-Pro EDGE Nick Bosa in Week 3 and then lost All-Pro LB Fred Warner in Week 6. Both are done for the year.

SF is an interesting unit under DC Robert Saleh. They blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL (20%), but deploy “disguised” coverage looks at the highest rate (47%). Disguise is defined here as showing two-high safeties pre-snap, then rotating to single-high post-snap (or vice versa).

When LA played SF back in Week 5, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams were both targeted on 28% of their routes, but Nacua finished with 24.5 points and Adams 13.8.

In their 7 games together this season, Nacua is targeted on a higher percentage of his routes vs. man coverage than Adams, but the big difference is in single-high and two-high looks. In these games, Nacua is targeted on 45% of his routes vs single-high (Adams 22%), but 28% vs two-high looks (Adams bumps to 34%):

Defensively, SF ranks 10th in zone usage (77%) and 10th in single-high usage (55%). They are top ten in the deployment of Cover 3 (37%), Cover 4 (17%), and Cover 6 (16%), respectively.

In their 7 games together against those three particular coverages, Puka Nacua takes the cake:

As for LA defensively, they rank 7th in zone usage (78%) and 8th in single-high usage (57%). More specifically, they rank 5th in Cover 3 deployment (40%).

In the first game vs SF, LA deployed Cover 3 and Cover 4 on 70% of its total coverage snaps. LA deployed Cover 4 on a season-high 28% clip.

This is particularly interesting because on the season, SF drops back vs Cover 4 more often than any other offense in the NFL (24%).

George Kittle ($4,500) is priced as the TE2. Kittle got hurt in the season opener and was out through Week 6, but has played in each of the team’s last three games from Weeks 7-9.

Ricky Pearsall ($5,400) played in the first four games of the season, but got hurt in Week 4 and hasn’t played since that game.

Jauan Jennings ($4,600) has played in 7 of the team’s 9 games, missing Week 3 as well as Week 5.

Pearsall has not practiced and very likely misses this game.

That means Kittle and Jennings have played together in each of the team’s last three games from Weeks 7-9.

During this stretch, SF has played in 21 personnel on 43% of their offensive snaps, compared to 37% in 11 personnel. Hello FB Kyle Juszczyk ($4,000).

57% of their offensive snaps and 39% of pass plays have been in 1-WR sets.

What makes SF unique is that they have swiss army knives like Kittle, Juszczyk, and RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,000), who are versatile in alignment and skillsets, which help adapt to defensive personnel on the field.

In the last three games, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Jennings are the only skill players with a snap share >80%. WR Kendrick Bourne ($4,500) is at 76% and Juszczyk is at 57%.

Jauan Jennings is $100 more expensive than George Kittle and Kendrick Bourne. Assuming Ricky Pearsall is out, I think Jauan Jennings is a valuable option.

Remember, neither Kittle, Pearsall, or Jennings played vs LA in the first matchup. In that game, Kendrick Bourne finished with 11 targets, 142 receiving yards, and 27.2 DK points.

Over the last three games, Jauan Jennings is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the highest overall target share and clears everyone in first-read target share:

McCaffrey leads the team over this three-game stretch with a 37% XFP share, Jennings ranks 2nd at 19%, and both Kittle/Bourne are under 10%.

I think Jauan Jennings is a value relative to cost, assuming Ricky Pearsall doesn’t play.

BAL @ MIN

The Baltimore Ravens (3-5) travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings (4-4) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Ravens are currently 4-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 49.5 points.

Both teams are coming off impressive Week 9 road wins: BAL with a 28-6 victory at MIA on Thursday Night Football, and MIN with a 27-24 win over DET.

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) is priced as the DK QB2 on the Sunday main slate, and J.J. McCarthy ($4,900) is comfortably priced outside the top 10 DK QBs.

Jackson played in every game the first month of the season but left Week 4 with a hamstring injury, which kept him sidelined until last week’s game at MIA. McCarthy played the first two games of the year but suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2, which kept him sidelined until last week’s game at DET.

Sunday’s matchup between BAL/MIN owns the 2nd-highest total on the main slate (49.5 points), and BAL owns the 4th-highest implied team total on the main slate (26.75 points). BAL has scored >25 points in 4/5 and 30+ points in 3/5 of Lamar Jackson’s starts this season.

This game has an interesting concoction of uncertainty and volatility at the QB position. Both QBs have missed significant time, and their limited sample of work features some high-variance plays:

Including more structured plays like boots and designed rollouts, Lamar Jackson and J.J. McCarthy are both leaving the pocket on nearly 30% of their overall dropbacks.

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

ED% Early down snap share

3D% Third down snap share

RR% Routes run per team dropback

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

TPRR Targets per route run

YPRR Yards per route run

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PPG Actual fantasy points per game

SALARY DK salary

Vikings DC Brian Flores is very hands-on with his schematics and makes opposing QBs lives very uncomfortable. MIN ranks 1st in usage of two-high shells (70%) and ranks 1st in blitz rate (44%).

Overall, MIN is the top defense in the NFL in quickest time to pressure (2.34 secs on average), and ranks 1st in pressure rate generated over expectation relative to how long the opposing QB holds the ball (+13.4%).

Brian Flores was the Dolphins HC from 2019-2021. During the 2021 regular season, MIA hosted BAL, and Brian Flores sent the house against Lamar Jackson all game:

To keep it simple, Flores’ defense is aggressive and unpredictable.

Zay Flowers ($5,900) is priced as the main slate WR13. In 5 games with Lamar Jackson this season, Flowers leads all pass catchers in target share, first-read target share, and DK PPG:

MIN plays the most two-high, the 2nd-most Cover 2 (28%), and likes to bring up LBs in the A-Gaps to blitz or drop back into coverage after the snap. They leave the middle of the field open, allowing the 2nd-highest MOF pass rate this season (26%).

With Lamar Jackson under center, Zay Flowers leads all BAL pass catchers with a whopping 56% first-read target share and 39% overall target share over the middle of the field, targeted on 42% of his routes with a 4.92 YPRR.

Over their last five games, MIN allows the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing WRs lined up on the outside (+10.3) and the 4th-fewest to opposing WRs lined up in the slot (-3.7).

When Jackson was hurt, Flowers ran 68% of his routes from out wide and 33% from the slot. In games with Jackson, Flowers has run 56% from the outside and 44% from the slot. To me, this shows a more hands-on deployment with Flowers based on matchups at hand.

I would like to know if BAL will get in 11 personnel and spread things out to better identify potential blitzers with space. MIN ranks 1st among defenses in EPA/dropback allowed when opposing offenses go heavier such as 12 personnel, 13 personnel, and 21 personnel (-0.17).

However, MIN ranks in the bottom half of the league in EPA/dropback allowed when opponents go lighter in 11 personnel (+0.11).

As for MIN offensively, they see a lot of man coverage. In J.J. McCarthy's starts, MIN has notably dropped back vs more single-high looks, while they’ve dropped back vs more two-high shells in their other games.

MIN usage of 12 personnel has gradually increased throughout the season:

If these trends continue, MIN could be going strength vs strength come Sunday.

Defensively, BAL ranks top three in EPA/dropback allowed when opposing offenses are in 12 personnel (-0.16), but rank among the bottom ten defenses in the NFL when opponents are in 11 personnel (+0.19).

BAL ranks top five in overall EPA/play allowed vs 12 personnel (-0.10) and bottom five vs 11 personnel (+0.13).

There’s an incentive for MIN to drop back out of 11 personnel this week but so far this year they’ve got inverse splits.

Offensively, MIN ranks bottom three in EPA/dropback from 11 personnel (-0.11), but ranks top five out of 12 personnel (+0.25).

When MIN is in 12 personnel, they see a lot of base defense at 68%, which is a path of least resistance for your passing game even if you have just 2-WRs on the field.

But BAL tends to stay light defensively on most of their snaps (Nickel+ means 5+ DBs), regardless of whether the opposing offense goes light in 11 personnel or goes heavier in 12+ personnel.

Justin Jefferson ($7,900) is priced as the main slate WR4.

Jordan Addison ($5,400) is priced as the WR18. Addison missed the first two games of the season because he was suspended, which happened to be the only games that J.J. McCarthy played before his injury. Meaning, last week was the first time that Addison and McCarthy played together.

Since Week 3, Jordan Addison is 2nd on the team in target share, first-read target share, YPRR, and DK PPG and isn’t far behind Justin Jefferson:

Defensively, BAL ranks 4th in man usage (38%) and also ranks 4th in single-high usage (60%).

Since Jordan Addison has been activated, Justin Jefferson is targeted on 29% of his routes vs man compared to Addison at 13%. Jefferson has been targeted on 33% of his routes vs single-high looks compared to Addison at 15%. Addison cuts it close the most vs two-high looks, and it’s not by much:

Out of 11 personnel:

Out of 2-WR sets:

I’m just not sure if this Vikings offense can support multiple targets beyond Justin Jefferson right away, given the balanced run/pass approach with J.J. McCarthy under center in his first year actually playing.

I think you can find a similar weekly conundrum with Bears QB Caleb Williams and WRs Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore, who are in their first years in a brand-new offensive system.

From a pure coverage matchup perspective, Justin Jefferson has the advantage over Jordan Addison. Still, most of the sample to determine that occurred with a different QB at a totally different stage of his career, so there’s definitely uncertainty.