2025 Week 6 DFS Coverage Shells

I'm happy to be back for another week of DFS matchups on the Sunday main slate!

The following teams are on a bye in Week 6:

• Houston Texans

• Minnesota Vikings

The Denver Broncos and the New York Jets are playing in London this week, so although that game is on Sunday morning, it’s not included here in the main slate.

This week’s article is published earlier than it normally is during the week, so some team totals might slightly differ from where they’re at by the time you get to reading this.

Team Defenses

The following chart shows team composite defensive ratings against the run and against the pass, pulling from an array of metrics to get the final result. How to read each quadrant:

• Top Right: Good Run D / Good Pass D

• Bottom Right: Good Run D / Weak Pass D

• Bottom Left: Weak Run D / Weak Pass D

• Top Left: Good Pass D / Weak Run D

For passing matchups, we preferably want to pick apart defenses in the bottom right quadrant, or either of the bottom two quadrants.

Team Offenses

NE @ NO

The New England Patriots (3-2) head south to take on the New Orleans Saints at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Patriots are currently 3.5-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 45.5 points.

Both teams are coming off Week 5 victories. NO defeated the NYG by a final score of 26-14, while NE won on the road in BUF by a final score of 23-20.

NE ranks top 5 among offenses in dropback rate over expectation, and NO ranks top 5 in plays per game. This combination initially piqued my interest with this matchup.

Both teams have below-average pass defenses and are relatively stronger at stopping the run, which makes the passing matchup enticing.

NE is led by second-year QB Drake Maye ($5,900), who is priced as the DK QB8 on the Sunday main slate. NO is also led by their own second-year QB in Spencer Rattler ($4,700), who is priced as the QB16.

Let’s take a look at the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

Stefon Diggs ($5,800) is priced as the DK WR14 on the Sunday main slate. Diggs is coming off his best week of the year, finishing with 27.6 points on 12 targets and 146 receiving yards in his revenge game at BUF.

On the season, Stefon Diggs is the WR42 in expected PPG based on volume (11.2) and the WR28 in actual PPG (13.6).

While Diggs is on the field for 77% of the team’s third down snaps, he’s on the field for just 48% of the early down snaps. Even in last week’s monster performance, he owned merely a 38% early down snap share.

OC Josh McDaniels has always been diverse in offensive personnel/formation deployment, so you’re rarely going to see heavy 3-WR sets with this offense, which impacts Diggs’ usage along with his ACL recovery. But he’s become Maye’s top target without much target competition, and there are still snaps to gain in one of the most dropback-heavy offenses in the NFL. Depending on how you look at it, Stefon Diggs could be a fantasy juggernaut as the season progresses.

Defensively, NO deploys single-high coverage at the 7th-highest rate (58%).

Stefon Diggs ranks 2nd in FPRR (0.80), 3rd in YPRR (4.46), and 6th in TPRR (0.30) vs single-high coverage looks out of 102 qualifiers this season.

Another Patriot worth considering is Hunter Henry ($4,300), who is priced as the DK TE6 on the Sunday main slate. On the season, Henry is the TE4 in expected PPG (11.6) and the TE8 in actual PPG (12.6).

Hunter Henry doesn’t come off the field. He’s on for 86% of the team’s early down snaps and 88% of the third down snaps.

Henry already had a connection with Maye in 2024, and now he’s an impact player in both the run and pass game within this McDaniels offense, playing from various packages.

NO deploys single-high coverage at the 7th-highest rate (58%) and single-high at the 12th-highest rate (75%).

Hunter Henry leads the team in first-read target share vs single-high looks and surpasses Stefon Diggs in expected points per route run vs single-high. Diggs went off last week against a two-high dominant BUF defense, so Henry could make for an interesting pivot to a similarly zone-heavy, but single-high leaning NO defense.

Chris Olave ($5,100) is priced as the DK WR24. On the season, Chris Olave is the WR2 in expected PPG (19.4), the WR2 in percentage share of the team’s XFP (25.6%), and the WR4 in XFP per team play (.276), but ranks outside the top 30 WRs in actual PPG.

NO is a below-average offense in terms of efficiency, but runs a ton of plays per game, which boosts its skill players' XFP numbers.

While Olave is still a good option, Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) is worth a close look. Defensively, NE deploys man coverage at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL. Shaheed is targeted on 31% of his routes vs man this season compared to 14% vs zone.

Shaheed ranks 5th in target share (32%) and 6th in YPRR (2.51) out of 49 qualifiers vs man coverage this season.

NE allows the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing WRs lined up on the outside (+6.3), so it will be interesting how Olave and Shaheed are deployed against a vulnerable NE coverage unit. CB Christian Gonzalez is back from injury, so Shaheed could garner some opportunities should Gonzalez trace Olave.

I also think it’s worth considering Juwan Johnson ($3,300), who is priced as the DK TE14 on the Sunday main slate. On the season, Johnson is the TE6 in expected PPG (11.2) and the TE15 in actual PPG (11.0). NE allows the 8th-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing TEs (+2.5).

While the specific coverage matchup isn’t very lucrative for Johnson, some other data points persuaded me to include him in this write-up.

RB Alvin Kamara ($5,700) is day-to-day with an ankle injury.

If we look at the Saints' weekly target share, we can see the inverse relationship between Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson. Should Kamara not play, Johnson could be in for some more target volume.

Relative to cost, all 3 of the Saints' pass catchers are solid values this week.

DAL @ CAR

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1) hit the road and get set to take on the Carolina Panthers (2-3) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Cowboys are currently 3-point road favorites and the game total is hovering around 49.5 points.

Both teams are coming off victories in Week 5. DAL won at the NYJ by a final score of 37-22, while CAR won at home vs MIA by a final score of 27-24.

This 49.5 point game total is the highest on the main slate. DAL and CAR rank top 10 in offensive plays per game, and both are above average offenses in success rate (percentage of run + pass plays which generate positive EPA).

Further, both defenses are below-average units stopping the pass:

Here are most of the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

The reason I say “most” is because CAR WR Jalen Coker ($4,200) is set to make his 2025 season debut on Sunday after missing the first 5 weeks of the year stemming from an injury during training camp.

Rookie Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000) is priced as the DK WR10 on the main slate. DAL allows the most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing WRs (+17.6) and more specifically to perimeter WRs (+15.8), so this alone makes McMillan worthy of consideration. Having said that, it isn’t the most lucrative coverage matchup.

Defensively, DAL ranks 2nd in zone coverage usage (86%) and ranks 7th in usage of two-high shells (59%).

McMillan is targeted on 22% of his zone routes compared to 33% vs man, and targeted on 19% of his two-high routes compared to 28% vs single-high:

RB Rico Dowdle ($5,800) is a popular play this week should Chuba Hubbard ($5,800) not suit up again. I think it’s worth considering Jalen Coker if you’re rostering Dowdle.

As for CAR defensively, they deploy the 3rd-most zone coverage in the NFL (81%). They also give up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing TEs (+5.5).

DAL TE Jake Ferguson ($5,300) is a smash play assuming WR CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) once again doesn’t suit up.

Ferguson ranks 4th in TPRR (0.36) and FPRR (0.71) out of 87 qualifiers vs zone coverage this season.

SF @ TB

The San Francisco 49ers (4-1) travel cross-country to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) at 4:25 PM EDT on Sunday. The Buccaneers are currently 3-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

Both teams are coming off huge road wins. SF enters this week on extended rest, having last played on TNF where they beat LAR by a final score of 26-23, while TB is coming off their own cross-country battle in SEA, winning by a final score of 38-35.

Both defenses in this week’s matchup are above-average units against the run and below-average units against the pass. Both offenses are below-average units running the ball and above-average units dropping back to pass. The game total is tied for the 2nd-highest on the main slate.

Despite the injuries littered across both sidelines, this is still a game worth considering.

Baker Mayfield ($6,600) is priced as the DK QB1 on the main slate, assuming Lamar Jackson ($7,000) doesn’t play. Mayfield ranks 5th in PPG (22.5) and 14th in points per dropback (0.57).

As for SF, it appears that Mac Jones ($5,600) will get the start. Jones is priced as the QB10.

Mac Jones has started in Weeks 2, 3, and 5, while the currently injured Brock Purdy started in Weeks 1 and 4.

Here are the probable pass catchers for this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

SF TE George Kittle is on IR and hasn’t played since Week 1. WR Brandon Aiyuk has not played this season due to injury.

TB WR Mike Evans hasn’t played since Week 3 and won’t play this game vs SF. RB Bucky Irving ($7,000) is included on that pass catcher table, but probably won’t play this week.

SF WR Ricky Pearsall ($5,400) didn’t play last week and appears to be doubtful for this one, according to HC Kyle Shanahan:

SF WR Jauan Jennings ($4,800) also didn’t play last week and is questionable for this week’s game.

Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall have played in 3 games together this season. In those 3 games, Pearsall owns a 77.3% snap share, Jennings a 76.8% snap share, and both own identical 16.1% target shares.

Should Jennings suit up and Pearsall not play, Jennings becomes the top target earner alongside RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,400) in this SF offense.

If neither Pearsall nor Jennings plays, then WR Kendrick Bourne ($5,000) slides into Jennings’ place in the previous scenario. Isn’t this fun?

Todd Bowles was the Bucs DC from 2019-2021 before getting promoted to HC in 2022.

Kyle Shanahan has gone up against Bowles’ TB defenses on 4 different occasions. In those 4 games, SF is averaging 0.381 EPA/dropback with a 56.5% dropback success rate and -1.9% pass rate over expected (0.166, 49.9%, and -4.4% vs everyone else).

Defensively, TB ranks 11th in two-high shell usage (53%).

Christian McCaffrey is targeted on 41% of his routes vs two-high looks compared to 17% vs single-high looks.

However, when SF played TB in Week 10 last season, Jauan Jennings led the 49ers with 11 targets and 93 receiving yards. McCaffrey had the 2nd-most targets (7) and finished with 68 receiving yards.

During all of last season, Jennings led SF in first-read target share (29%) and target share (21%) vs two-high coverage looks.

TB WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,200) has been phenomenal for fantasy owners. He’s priced as the DK WR5 on the main slate this week after costing $6,900 the week prior. If Egbuka is too expensive for your taste buds, RB Rachaad White ($6,000) is an interesting play.

SF allows the 6th-most schedule-adjusted receiving PPG to opposing RBs (+2.9) and the 6th-fewest to opposing WRs (-5.1). We know this is a bad rushing matchup for both offenses, but it’s low-key a good receiving matchup for each backfield.

Defensively, SF ranks 11th in zone coverage rate (75%). More specifically, SF ranks top 10 in usage of Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 6, respectively (rank 30th in Cover 2 usage).

This season, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White collectively have been targeted on 0/22 routes vs man coverage, but have been targeted on 27% of their routes vs zone. With Mike Evans out the last 2 games, Irving owns a 17% target share vs zone and White a 16% share, tied with WR Chris Godwin ($5,600) during that span.