Y’know the best part about daylight savings time ending? Fantasy managers gain an extra hour per day to build toward a title. Pretty convenient this comes in November, too, because we’re now entering the final weeks of the regular season. The decisions made from here on out will be the difference between punching a playoff ticket and the losers’ bracket. The fabulous weekly readers of this series likely won’t be sweating the home stretch; this is what we’ve prepped for.
But if this is your first visit, here’s the lowdown: Each week, we’ll talk through the five most important things to be aware of for the NFL week ahead and how it matters for fantasy football in a straightforward, teachable way. My goal is for you to elevate from beginner status to being a top-notch team manager who can win a championship.
The game of fantasy football is about building upon and applying what you’re learning in real-time. Our next discussion continues the theme of tackling more intermediate concepts as we did last week, so get ready to take notes. Here’s some good stuff to know before Week 10:
Thing #1: Always Engage With The Post-Waivers Dumpster Dive
All managers know how valuable the waiver wire is to fantasy success. I’d be hard-pressed to believe anyone reading this who’s still contending hasn’t performed at least a couple of roster swaps. But now that others are beginning to fall out of the championship picture, the number of folks paying attention is dwindling. How many times have you heard someone say, “Dang, I didn’t even know [X player] was even available” in the league group chat or text thread?
Stay on top of who’s dropped after the Wednesday waiver period. Get in the habit of checking in and immediately placing bids if good players are let go. Once the initial run happens, lots of managers pay no mind to their bench until Friday when final injury reports hit — that’s not how sharps move. Folks who check out are also likely to drop quality backups, assuming their star player will return from injury soon. The issue there is that’s not always guaranteed.
For example, it’s entirely possible that Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was let go while Tampa Bay went on bye. Bucky Irving’s foot injury might be healed by now, but that’s not even guaranteed as of this writing. Letting go of a productive handcuff before it’s 100% official that a starter is coming back makes no sense. Capitalize on errors like these and you’ll crush it.
Thing #2: The Concept of Variance
Fantasy football involves plenty of math. That’s no secret by now, and even if it’s not a favorite subject, those who engage with this hobby probably enjoy it on some level. Grinding usage stats like snaps and touches to determine which players are likely to succeed weekly is a significant aspect of roster management. But what about the random factors that throw off the research we do and lead to gameday letdowns? That’s what’s known as variance.
It’s best to think of “variance” as chaos; both human and natural elements sway outcomes all the time. Especially at this time of year, snowy weather and cold temperatures will impact on-field play. NFL teams typically lean on the run game in these conditions because moisture and freezing affect both the hands of quarterbacks who need to grip the ball firmly and pass-catchers tasked with receiving throws. Handing the rock to a runner and letting them cook is simply easier. Beyond that comes opening the can of worms of injury, touchdowns, and all the other ticky-tacky incidents that take a single-digit PPR output to a 20-point performance.
Tight ends who see an average of three targets per game aren’t magically slam-dunk starters because they scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. Running backs shuffling behind an o-line that loses a high-end tackle or guard in the second quarter might fail, and that’s not their fault per se. Receivers in a torrential downpour probably won’t put up 100+ yards, unfortunately.
When you hear platitudes that suggest there’s so much “luck” in fantasy, it’s not necessarily true — it’s just variance in action, and recognizing that is a critical aspect of building out an effective process. An adage many long-time managers lean on is “process over results” or some other variation. Be sure to always stick by predictive measures. Players who get on the field and get the ball regularly are the “good ones” to trust. Never lose sight of that truth.
Thing #3: Why Evaluating Data In Sample Sizes Matters
Perhaps the most effective way to recognize variance is by plotting out weekly data and spotting trends. What makes the beginning of November a helpful time to put in this work is that nine weeks' worth of numbers are in the books. Fantasy managers can break down data into even chunks of three-game samples, and doing so makes information both more easily digestible.
This birdseye view provides ample clarity. Performing this segmented research will explain why those waiver wire studs from Week 5 aren’t doing well anymore, or identify players who’ve been aggressively “unlucky” in finding the end zone despite hefty involvement. Context is everything, whether in life or pretend football, so it’s time to put this practice to use.
Hindsight lends us insight into how much a lineman’s absence affects a team’s running back, or what happens to certain receivers when the QB who loves locking onto them gets benched. A great example of this is what’s happening with the Arizona Cardinals’ offense right now, with Jacoby Brissett operating under center in relief of Kyler Murray, and the marked improvements the passing attack is experiencing throughout this stretch. Dive in and start marking the shifts.
Thing #4: What ‘Yards Per Route Run’ Means
Why not learn about some metrics while we’re in the data mood? Kudos to those who’ve done outside investigating or explored the Fantasy Points Data Suite, but this series is ultimately meant to be teachable. Now, let’s highlight a crucial stat called yards per route run (or YPPR).
The basic formula involves dividing the total receiving yards a pass-catcher accumulates by the number of routes they’ve participated in throwing plays. The “answer” to the equation provides us with an understanding of how efficient receivers are on a per-play basis in the form of a plain number with two decimal points for precision. Generally, anything at or above 2.00 is considered to be “good,” and any escalation above that demonstrates dominance — the higher the better.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks leads all qualified receivers in this measure at 4.56 YPPR; that’s an incredible number, and for context, the leader in 2024 (Los Angeles Rams alpha Puka Nacua) finished the season at 3.59. Plainly, what JSN is doing right now is bonkers and over twice as good as what’s agreed upon as “average” for success. Aren’t stats fun?
Thing #5: How To Identify Personnel Groupings
Okay, this subheading might sound like we’re about to introduce a complicated concept right at the very end, but that’s not the case. Personnel groupings in football refer to the formations of players that coaches design to run specific plays. Sometimes it makes sense to have an extra wide receiver out on the field for a critical pass attempt, or an extra blocker along the line to help create space for a rusher to fit through. These athletes are deployed with purpose.
There’s a shorthand system for identifying these groupings, and it only involves understanding the significance of two digits. When a team shows 12 personnel, that first number means only one running back is on the field, and the second signifies two tight ends. Conversely, 21 personnel refers to a look with two backs and only one tight end. You feel me so far?
The quiet part here is the wide receiver count. For our current purposes, the only necessary nugget to remember is that 11 personnel means three wideouts are on the field. Think about when the Indianapolis Colts have plays when Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all running routes — that’s an 11 look. Knowing which guys tend to go to the bench in 12, 21, or any other two-receiver packages is key because it tells us who we can trust to see regular opportunities to catch the ball. Only playing a bit role in specific situations limits upside.
Conclusion
Smart decisions come from open minds, and knowing more about the ins and outs of the fantasy game makes everyone willing to learn better. Try applying this new set of facts to your roster management this week; see how much of a difference it makes. That edge you feel is the magic of Fantasy Points. Enjoy Week 10, and may another victory manifest this weekend.
