Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 2-7 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 4-4), 8:20 p.m., SNF
Brolley’s Chiefs Stats and Trends
The Chiefs are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games.
Kansas City has played under the total in four straight games.
Patrick Mahomes failed to top 15 FP for the third straight game. He completed 20/37 passes for 166 yards (4.5 YPA) and one TD in an uninspiring 13-7 victory over a Jordan Love-led Packers’ squad in Week 9. Mahomes has averaged fewer than 6.0 YPA in three straight games and in five of his last seven games, and he’s accounted for just two touchdowns with the Chiefs averaging just 12.0 points per game in the last three weeks. Hey, at least he snapped a seven-game streak with an interception! The Raiders are giving up the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (220.8) to QBs.
Tyreek Hill is averaging a silly 12.5 targets per game over his last six contests after seeing another 11 looks last week. Unfortunately, he turned those 11 looks into just 4/37 receiving for his second performance with fewer than eight FP. He had his run of five games with 6+ catches snapped last week. The Raiders are allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game (121.4) and a stingy 10.5 YPR to WRs.
Travis Kelce bounced back from his worst fantasy performance of the season — 4/27 receiving in Week 8 — with his sixth performance with 17+ FP, posting 5/68/1 receiving. It’s just the fourth game where he’s found the end zone after he scored in 10-of-15 games last season. He destroyed the Raiders for 16/235/2 receiving in two games last season, and the Raiders are giving up the third-most FPG (17.1) to the position this season.
Mecole Hardman has fallen below 10 FP in three of his last four games, and he’s scored just one touchdown this season. He sits a distant third in target share at 15% through nine weeks. The Raiders are giving up the third-fewest FPG (28.1) to WRs.
Darrel Williams continues to play solid in relief of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee, IR) with his third double-digit FP performance in four tries. He saw a four-week low 54% snap share against the Packers in Week 9, but he still turned in 19/70 rushing and 3/7 receiving on four targets. He’s posted 3+ catches in five straight games and he’ll continue to be a solid RB2 option for as long as CEH is out of the lineup. CEH returned to practice this week, but he’s likely still a week away from returning. The Raiders are giving up 4.6 YPC to RBs, and Giants’ backup RB Devontae Booker managed 21/99 rushing and 3/23 receiving in this matchup last week.
Brolley’s Raiders Stats and Trends
The Raiders covered in both matchups against the Chiefs last season, and both matchups went over the total.
The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
Las Vegas is 7-1 toward overs in its last eight home games.
Derek Carr had his second-worst fantasy performance of the season against the Giants, posting 296/1 passing on 46 passes (6.4 YPA) with two INTs in his first game without Henry Ruggs. The Chiefs defense has tightened up a bit in recent weeks, holding three of the last four QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 18 FP. Carr threw for a combined 622 yards on just 62 attempts (10.0 YPA) for six TDs and two INTs in two games in this matchup last season.
Darren Waller had his best game since he saw 19 targets in the season opener, posting 7/92 receiving on 11 targets. Carr missed him on two end-zone targets so Waller is still stuck at just two touchdowns this season — the Chiefs have given up five TDs to TEs since Week 5. Waller posted a combined 12/136/2 receiving on 14 targets in two games in this matchup last season.
Hunter Renfrow has 5+ catches in 7-of-8 games, and he has 8+ targets in 6-of-8 contests this season after posting 7/49/1 receiving on nine targets against the Giants last week. Randall Cobb posted 3/50 receiving on five targets in this matchup last week, and the Chiefs are giving up the fewest catches per game (10.9) to WRs.
The Raiders signed DeSean Jackson to give them some much-needed downfield speed after Bryan Edwards (0 catches on 4 targets) and Zay Jones (1/20 receiving on 4 targets) flopped as the top perimeter WRs last week. The Chiefs are giving up 13.3 YPR to WRs this season.
Josh Jacobs is playing his best football of the season in the last two games, posting 19/105/1 rushing (5.5 YPC) and 7/58 receiving (8.3 YPR). Jacobs needed 40 carries to get 132 rushing yards (3.3 YPC) against the Chiefs in two games last season, but he scored three touchdowns in those contests. Kansas City is giving up 4.4 YPC to RBs this season.
Kenyan Drake has seen his snaps grow in three straight games (21%<39%<45%) since Jon Gruden resigned, and he’s averaging 11.0/84.0 scrimmage per game with three TDs in that span. The Chiefs have given up production to A.J. Dillon (4/44 receiving) and Devontae Booker (5/65) through the air in the last two weeks.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 26.9 (7th)
Plays per game: 72.3 (2nd)
Pass: 65.5% (6th) | Run: 34.5% (27th)
Pace: 27.5 (13th)
Plays per game: 68.6 (8th)
Pass: 64.6% (7th) | Run: 35.4% (26th)
This is the third-best game from a pace / plays perspective for Week 10, but it’s obviously harder to get excited about the prospects of this game shooting out after the Chiefs offense has completely crumbled recently. Over the last three weeks, Kansas City has put up just 3 (vs. Titans), 20 (vs. Giants), and 13 (vs. Packers) points on the board and, as a result, all three of those games have easily cruised the under total. Just for some perspective… the Chiefs have scored just 3 TDs on their 31 possessions over the last three weeks which is the fourth-lowest TD rate (9.7%) and only ahead of the Texans, Jaguars, and Panthers in this span.
There are a number of things working against Kansas City between a bad defense that has forced Mahomes to play Hero Ball, an inconsistent offensive line, both of Mahomes’ star receivers playing through injuries, and Mahomes himself playing well below his abilities within structure. They will eventually get it figured out, but it may not be anytime soon – or even this season.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are set up well to push the scoring pace here. They’re continuing to throw the ball near league-high rates – they’re even more pass-heavy in close games (65.9%) than the Chiefs (63.1%) – and we all know this Kansas City defense has some holes. Derek Carr absolutely shredded the Chiefs last season and now DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is significantly worse off. After facing the dead Giants and Rodgers-less Packers, the Chiefs have their work cut out for them here.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
Week 9 did not go as planned for the Raiders. New York outside CBs James Bradberry and Adoree' Jackson took the opportunity to close down their coverage responsibilities to a 3/17/1 line on 12 Targets (0.18 YPCS and 0.11 FP/CS). But Las Vegas will travel back to their home field to welcome a struggling Kansas City offense only averaging 12 PPG during its last three games. In two games against the Chiefs last season, Derek Carr averaged 311 passing YPG, three TDs, and 23.4 FPG.
Curious what is going on with Patrick Mahomes II? Let’s take a look. During his last three games (TEN, NYG, GB), he’s posted 6.7 YPA, a 71% completion rate, 89.7 passer rating, 6.2 air YPA, and zero TDs or INTs. However when he’s gone up against all other schemes, 4.9 YPA (21%⬇), 51% completion rate (28%⬇), 61.4 passer rating (32%⬇), 9.6 air YPA (35%⬆), zero TDs, and one INT. And I don’t like this coverage matchup for him.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Honestly, I am getting kind of tired of asking what’s wrong with the Chiefs and I just want them to fix it. It’s gotten to the point where Patrick Mahomes is benchable if you have another legitimate option, but you just have to suck it up with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes is now at a point where he’s playing legitimately bad football — it’s no longer “grading him on a curve” because of the expectations we have for him. Check out what Graham dug up for his Week 10 Stat-Pack:
Over his last three outings (vs. Titans / Giants / Packers), Patrick Mahomes has completed 57.5% of his throws for 5.4 yards per attempt and just 215.7 yards per game.
Just 47% of Mahomes’ passes over 10 air yards have been on-target over his last three games, which is worst in the league.
The Chiefs could potentially use a boost to the run game, and it’s possibly soon they could get Clyde Edwards-Helaire back from an MCL sprain. He’s eligible to be activated, but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to go this week just yet.
Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy said Clyde Edwards-Helaire "looked great" at Wednesday's practice.— Herbie Teope (@HerbieTeope) November 11, 2021
Edwards-Helaire remains on injured reserve for the time being, but EB's assessment is definitely a positive sign.
In his stead, Darrel Williams has done a solid job filling in for fantasy, but he’s simply been less effective than CEH. From Stat-Pack again:
The good news? Darrel Williams is averaging 19 touches per game with CEH on the shelf.
The bad news? Williams’ carries are gaining a plodding 3.47 yards a pop over the last month.
(Edwards-Helaire averages 4.7 YPC.)
In the Raiders’ first game following the release of WR Henry Ruggs, QB Derek Carr threw 46 passes. Thirty-eight of the 46 went to either a tight end, RB, or WR Hunter Renfrow. The other 8 went to starting outside WRs Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards. They combined for just 1 catch for 20 yards.
Carr’s aDOT was at just 5.8 yards, well down from 8.6 aDOT on the season. That’s one of the reasons the Raiders brought in DeSean Jackson, whom they obviously hope fills in directly for Ruggs, though it would likely be foolish to expect Jackson to play a full-time role and stay healthy, given what happened to him in Philly the last two seasons. The only WR I want to play here for now is Renfrow, as a WR3.
Meanwhile… Darren Waller actually led the Raiders in receiving in Week 9! Waller’s 11 targets, 7 catches, and 92 receiving yards were all tops for Vegas in Sunday’s loss to the Giants. Despite Waller having 64 targets — second-most among TEs despite playing just seven games so far — this was the first time he’s led the Raiders in receiving yards since his Week 1 explosion against the Ravens, when he posted 10/105/1 receiving on 19 targets. Obviously, things have changed for the Raiders since then. Waller’s usage all season suggested a game like this was on the way, and those who roster him simply have to suck it up and deal with the statistical lows. But he came out of the Raiders’ bye healthy, and they need him going forward. Waller crushed the Chiefs to the tune of 12/136/2 receiving last year.