After last year’s craziness, has anyone else felt like this year has just flown by? I swear – it feels like I just blinked and August turned into November and we’re now into Week 10. This is now my seventh year working in fantasy full-time and this has easily been the quickest a season has gone by. Maybe it’s because 2020 was so wild that getting back to “normal” this year has sped up the space-time continuum?
Well, one thing is for sure: Nothing about last week’s NFL slate was close to normal. This sport is random every week – just to varying degrees. Last week was just filled with Black Swans.
Here’s your Week 10 Stat-Pack:
Bye week teams (Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Washington) weren’t included.
After Chase Edmonds (ankle) went down, James Conner was forced into a massive role and ended with a massive day (21/96/2 rushing | 5/77/1 receiving).
Conner played on 77% of the snaps on Sunday, which was the third-highest rate among RBs for Week 9.
Eno Benjamin mixed in for nine carries, too, but almost all of his work came in mop-up duty. Eight of Benjamin’s 9 carries came in the second-half when Arizona already established a multiple score lead.
With DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, and Edmonds all out – Rondale Moore played on a season-high 81% of the snaps.
Cordarrelle Patterson has now finished as the RB20 or better in seven-straight games and has four top-12 scores in this span.
In the three games that Cordarrelle Patterson has played without Calvin Ridley, he’s now tallied 7/60, 5/37/1, and 6/126 through the air.
Kyle Pitts has been a roller coaster this season and has three top-8 finishes mixed in with five weeks where he’s been TE17 or worse.
The good news is that Pitts’ target share remains consistent: He’s seen at least 20% of the Falcons’ targets in five-straight games.
Pitts also leads all TEs in targets of 10 or more air yards (30) followed by Kelce (28), Andrews (27), Waller (26), and Gesicki (24).
Lamar Jackson had 41 pass attempts and 21 carries against the Vikings.
This is now the second time in Jackson’s career where he’s had over 40 passes and 20 carries in a game – the other time was their loss to the Titans in the playoffs last season.
No quarterback in history has ever had a game of 40+ passes and 20+ rushes… other than Lamar. He’s the only one.
Lamar’s target distribution since Rashod Bateman made his debut in Week 6 – Brown (30%), Andrews (22%), and Bateman (19%). They should get Sammy Watkins back this week.
Devonta Freeman’s snap rate has increased in five-straight games: 8% > 27% > 30% > 40% > 58%.
Since 2019, teams that are 14-point (or better) favorites were 21-5 straight up heading into Week 9 when the Bills were -14.5 vs. the Jaguars.
The Bills second-half offense was a comedy of errors against the Jags’ and ultimately led to their loss…
Buffalo’s five second-half drives went like this: INT, INT, false start on 4th and short (that led to a punt), fumble, sack on third down (that led to 4th and 16 and a turnover on downs).
Christian McCaffrey was indeed limited in his first game in six weeks and played on just 49% of the snaps.
However, he was loaded up with a massive 19 opportunities (carries + targets) on his 29 total snaps.
We’re about to see how QB-proof CMC really is here…
Over their last five games, Carolina has scored just 4 TDs on 62 total drives for the worst scoring rate in this span (6.5%).
The Panthers are gaining 20 yards per drive on offense over their last five outings, which is a full three yards worse than the 31st ranked Texans (23 yards gained per drive) in this span.
Carolina has also gone three-and-out on 18-of-62 drives (29%) since Week 5, the highest rate in the league.
After basically not running at all in his first three starts, we’re starting to see Justin Fields scramble way more. Over the last month, Fields is averaging 8 carries and 57.3 rushing yards per game.
Still, the Bears refuse to design plays for Fields. It’s malpractice. All of his rushing production is coming on scrambles. Over their last four games, Fields has gotten five (5!) designed running plays called for him.
For reference, Lamar Jackson averages 7.3 designed carries… per game!
I guess David Montgomery is just fine! After missing three games, Montgomery played a season-high 85% of the snaps on MNF.
Now fully recovered from his ankle injury he suffered in Week 4, Joe Mixon is running 21.3 routes per game over his last four outings.
For reference of how great of a role that is, Alvin Kamara is running 21.7 routes per game – which is 12th-most among RBs.
Mixon is the RB2 in FPG (22.8) behind only Jonathan Taylor (26 FPG) over the last month
Nick Chubb has played seven games this season… He's topped 80 yards from scrimmage in six… He's topped 100 yards from scrimmage in four… and he hasn't hit a 60% snap share once (H/T Dolan).
Browns WR routes in the first game in the post-OBJ era: Landry (20-of-24), Schwartz (17), Peoples-Jones (16), Felton (4), Higgins (1).
Total burn the tape game vs. Denver. Dallas failed on two fourth-and-short conversions on their first two drives and everything went downhill from there.
Dak Prescott was off in his return from a calf injury and his 48.7% completion rate marked the second-lowest single game of his career.
Broncos’ target share leaders over the last two weeks with Jerry Jeudy back: Jeudy (24%), Okwuegbunam (16%), Patrick (16%), and Sutton (12%).
Courtland Sutton’s finishes in the three games that Jeudy has played this year: WR100, WR64, WR65.
Sutton has seen just 3, 4, and 2 targets in games Jeudy has played.
Sutton was averaging 9.2 targets per game without Jeudy.
Green Bay Packers
- The first foray into the post-Aaron Rodgers era didn’t go so hot for the Packers. Before their final two drives, just one of their first 8 possessions lasted longer than 6 plays.
Tyrod Taylor has attempted 87 passes this season. 24 have been thrown to Brandin Cooks (28% share).
Not that it matters, but the Texans RB snap share this week was: Johnson (45%), Burkhead (30%), Lindsay (20%), Phillips (6%).
Over the last month, Jonathan Taylor is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception.
Since Week 6, Taylor is the No. 1 overall scoring player in fantasy regardless of position with 26 FPG.
It only took Frank Reich half of the season to figure it out, but good things happen when you don’t give Marlon Mack 5-6 meaningless touches per game and instead give those opportunities to Taylor.
Michael Pittman is turning in one of the most quietly consistent fantasy seasons for a receiver I can remember…
Over his last eight games, Pittman has finished as a top-12 scoring WR four times and has put up at least 11.9 FP in 7-of-8.
Pittman, Mike Williams, and CeeDee Lamb are all tied as the WR15 in FPG.
Since DJ Chark went down, Dan Arnold (31) leads the team in targets followed by Agnew (30), Jones (27), and Shenault (22) over their last four games.
Arnold has now put up 60+ yards in three of his last 4 outings.
Carlos Hyde played on 79% of the snaps last week with James Robinson out, which was the second-highest rate among RBs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over his last three outings (vs. Titans / Giants / Packers), Patrick Mahomes has completed 57.5% of his throws for 5.4 yards per attempt and just 215.7 yards per game.
Just 47% of Mahomes’ passes over 10 air yards have been on-target over his last three games, which is worst in the league.
The good news? Darrel Williams is averaging 19 touches per game with CEH on the shelf.
The bad news? Williams’ carries are gaining a plodding 3.47 yards a pop over the last month.
Las Vegas Raiders
In the first game without Henry Ruggs, the Raiders elevated Zay Jones into a full-time role as he tied for the team lead in routes run with Bryan Edwards (47).
Kenyan Drake’s snap rate has increased in three-straight since Jon Gruden resigned: 21% > 39% > 45%.
Josh Jacobs has played on just 43% of the snaps over the last two weeks.
Darren Waller posted six-game highs in both targets (11) and yards (92) in Week 9.
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams was added to the injury report with a knee injury in Week 6…
Pre-knee injury (Weeks 1-5): 10.2 targets, 6.2 receptions, 94.2 yards, and 23.2 FPG (WR3).
Williams post injury (Weeks 6-9): 5 targets, 2 receptions, 34.7 yards, and 5.5 FPG (WR88).
The big thing that has dried up for Williams is deep targets…
In Weeks 1-5, Williams averaged 3.2 targets of 15+ air yards per game.
Over his last three games, Williams has just 4 total targets of 15+ air yards.
Los Angeles Rams
Don’t look now, but Robert Woods has now finished as the WR25 or better in five of his last six games.
He’s still not going to come close to catching Kupp in value, but Woods has really turned his season around after a slow start. Since Week 4, he’s the WR12 in FPG (17.7) and is ninth in receiving yardage (432) in this span.
Tyler Higbee continues to get some of the best usage among TEs, but he can’t cash in…
Tyler Higbee continues to get some of the best usage at the position, but can't cash in.— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 10, 2021
* 8 TEs are running routes on at least 75% of their team's pass plays and Higbee is the only one who is outside of the top-10 in fantasy points per game
*George Kittle's usage is elite pic.twitter.com/2PvqWKRUfm
In the four games that DeVante Parker has now missed, Jaylen Waddle has seen 9.3 targets per game and turned those looks into 6.8 receptions and 66.8 yards per outing with two scores.
Mike Gesicki has pretty massive splits with Parker off of the field…
Gesicki is now averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 74.3 yards per game in the four games that Parker has missed this season.
For reference, Gesicki has seen a huge dip in targets and production with 4.2 receptions and 46.4 yards on 6.2 targets per game in the five contests Parker has played.
The Vikings managed just 13 total first downs against the Ravens.
The Sam Darnold-led Panthers also managed 13 first downs in Week 9.
Dalvin Cook’s 80% snap share in Week 9 marked a season-high.
Adam Thielen has now scored 19 TDs in his last 23 games dating back to last year.
New England Patriots
The Patriots went 66% (!!) run-heavy against the Panthers.
Mac Jones has pretty wide splits in pass attempts in wins (29.8 attempts per game) vs. losses (37.8).
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara had another strong game against Atlanta as the focal point of the Saints offense with 13/50/1 on the ground and 4/54 through the air.
Mark Ingram (9/43 rushing | 5/21 receiving) was heavily involved, too, but New Orleans simply has to play this way and run their offense through their backs because of their lack of depth and talent at receiver and tight end.
The Saints ran 68 plays in Week 9 – and Kamara and Ingram accounted for a massive 46% of the total touches in the game.
And more good news for Kamara: Even though Ingram has been pretty heavily involved, it hasn’t come at the expense of Kamara’s scoring chances. Over the last two weeks, Kamara has been on the field for 18-of-20 plays inside-the-10 (red-zone).
New York Giants
- I have no idea what this coaching staff is smoking at this point. It ain’t the good stuff. Kadarius Toney tying for the Giants WR-lead in routes (21) in Week 9 but only getting one target is malpractice.
New York Jets
Elijah Moore has seemingly earned himself more playing time with his performance and he was boosted up to second on the team in routes in Week 9.
It’ll be interesting to see if Moore and Zach Wilson can build a semblance of chemistry when Wilson returns. In Weeks 1-5, the duo connected just eight times on 20 targets largely because Wilson wasn’t accurate.
On throws directed to Moore that traveled more than 10 air yards, Wilson gave Moore a catchable ball just 4 times on 10 targets.
Fun note: The Jets targeted 11 different pass catchers in Week 9. Lol.
After averaging 34.6 attempts over his first seven games, Jalen Hurts has thrown 31 total passes over his last two games against the Lions and Chargers.
The Eagles have made a fundamental change in their offense over the last two weeks by running the ball way more on early downs…
In Weeks 1-7, the Eagles were the eighth-most pass-heavy team on 1st and 2nd downs (58%).
Over their last two games, they are 73% run-heavy on early downs.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a drastic mid-season shift in philosophy like this.
The good news is that their passing offense has become way more condensed with Zach Ertz gone. The Eagles are just throwing to their good players…
Over their last three games, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith have each seen 29% of the targets.
- Najee Harris has already put himself among an elite crop of rookie runners and could end up with one of the best all-time seasons…
Rookie RB PPR points per game all-time:— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 9, 2021
1. Marcus Allen (25.4)
2. Saquon Barkley (24.1)
3. Eric Dickerson (23.7)
4. Edgerrin James (23.1)
5. Ezekiel Elliott (21.7)
6. Billy Sims (20.5)
7. Fred Taylor (20.4)
8. Alvin Kamara (20)
9. Najee Harris (19.9) 👀
10. Clinton Portis (19.8)
San Francisco 49ers
He’s back! George Kittle’s return to the lineup could not have gone any better as he shredded the Cardinals for 6/101/1 on eight targets after missing three games.
Kittle did get eased in a little bit – he played on a season-low 73% of the snaps – but it obviously ended up not mattering because the 49ers had to throw the ball a ton in the second-half to try and keep up with the Cardinals.
The 49ers get the Rams next up – and Kittle has feasted against L.A. in the past with 8/103, 5/79/1, and 7/109/1 in his last three meetings against them.
Kittle is running a route on 92% of the 49ers pass plays, which easily paces the position for the highest involvement rate. For reference, Travis Kelce is running a route on 86% of the Chiefs pass plays (second-highest).
It seems like Brandon Aiyuk has finally turned a corner this season and now has set back-to-back season-highs in targets with 7 and 8 in his last two times out.
Titans RB snaps in their first game without King Henry… Jeremy McNichols (45%), Adrian Peterson (33%), and D’Onta Foreman (21%).
McNichols, unsurprisingly, led the backfield in routes (12).
I thought Adrian Peterson ran extremely poorly and the stats back that up as 15 of Peterson’s 21 yards came after contact. There were multiple plays where Peterson picked the wrong hole and ran into the back of one of his linemen.