For those of you who aren’t afraid to make trades and thirst for data-supported methods to improve your team throughout the season, this weekly series is for you! I’ll supply you with quick hits for our rest-of-season top-50 players, their trade outlook, and possible trade packages you can offer. I am happy to be back with the newest edition of this series after a one-week hiatus!
There are a season-high 6 teams on bye this week, which includes 3 top-15 QBs, 5 top-20 RBs, 4 top-10 WRs, and 3 top-15 TEs. We are also officially at the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season, and there are always ways to climb back into the playoff picture with 7 games left. If you’re a team sitting atop the league, you have an opportunity to create value by taking advantage of teams fighting for their life, who may need to sell an injured or bye week player below market prices. If you’re sitting below the playoff line, there are still educated risks you can take to turn your season around.
Notable 2024 Fantasy Football Leaders in Weeks 1-7
Running Backs:
Derrick Henry (22.9 FPG)
Kenneth Walker (22.3 FPG)
Joe Mixon (22.1 FPG)
Saquon Barkley (22.0 FPG)
Alvin Kamara (20.7 FPG)
Wide Receivers:
- AJ Brown (22.1 FPG)
- Nico Collins (21.3 FPG)
- Malik Nabers (19.9 FPG)
- Cooper Kupp (19.9 FPG)
- Chris Godwin (19.7 FPG)
Notable 2024 Fantasy Football Leaders in Weeks 8-17
Running Backs:
- Saquon Barkley (22.4 FPG)
- Bijan Robinson (21.6 FPG)
- Josh Jacobs (21.3 FPG)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (20.3 FPG)
- De’Von Achane (20.1 FPG)
Wide Receivers:
- Ja’Marr Chase (26.6 FPG)
- Tee Higgins (22.1 FPG)
- Mike Evans (21.2 FPG)
- Puka Nacua (19.8 FPG)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.6 FPG)
Notable 2025 Fantasy Football Leaders in Weeks 1-7
Running Backs:
- Christian McCaffrey (26.7 FPG)
- Jonathan Taylor (25.6 FPG)
- Bijan Robinson (24.2 FPG)
- Josh Jacobs (20.6 FPG)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (20.0 FPG)
Wide Receivers:
- Puka Nacua (23.1 FPG)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22.3 FPG)
- Ja’Marr Chase (21.5 FPG)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (21.0 FPG)
- George Pickens (19.0 FPG)
Much like we saw in 2024, I expect league winners outside of the current top-5 in FPG to emerge in the coming weeks.
1. Bijan Robinson, RB1, ATL
There has only been one instance of an RB averaging at least 65.0 rushing YPG and 65.0 receiving YPG in NFL history (Marshall Faulk in 1999), and Robinson is on pace to join that elite club in 2025 (87.3 rushing YPG and 65.0 receiving YPG through 7 Weeks). Robinson currently ranks 2nd in YPC (5.40), 9th in explosive run rate (6.2%), 2nd in MTF/Att (0.28), 2nd in YACO/Att (3.42), and 3rd in FPG (24.2), with only 2 rushing TDs on the season.
2. Jonathan Taylor, RB2, IND
Taylor has now scored 3 TDs in a single game, on 3 separate occasions in the last 5 weeks, and currently leads all RBs in rushing YPG (99.6), and rushing TDs (10). He ranks 2nd in rush attempts (131), 4th in YPC (5.32), 6th in explosive run rate (6.9%), 6th in MTF/Att (0.20), 4th in YACO/Att (3.15), 2nd in FPG (25.6), and 2nd in XFP/G (21.1).
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB3, SF
McCaffrey is also on pace to join Marshall Faulk and Bijan Robinson as one of the most prolific dual-threat RBs of all time (66.5 rushing YPG and 73.7 receiving YPG through 7 Weeks). The return of George Kittle in Week 7 bodes well for McCaffrey’s rushing outlook, as his return led to the first instance of McCaffrey seeing more than 2.0 yards before contact per attempt all season (2.54 yards). McCaffrey, in turn, recorded his highest rushing output of the year (129 yards).
4. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB4, DET
After Dan Campbell vocalized that he wanted more of a “split backfield” between Gibbs and David Montgomery, Gibbs received 73.3% of the Lions’ rush attempts in the first half of their Week 7 win. Gibbs would, in turn, have his best fantasy week of the season (36.8 fantasy points), and is now the holder of the top-3 top speed records by a ball carrier this season.
5. Puka Nacua, WR1, LAR
Nacua is expected to return in Week 9 following the Rams’ Week 8 bye, and we can reasonably expect Nacua to pick up right where he left off (overall WR1), with no dip in production based on the low ankle injury he suffered.
6. CeeDee Lamb, WR2, DAL
Lamb looked great in his return to action in Week 7, with a 5-110-1 receiving line. He only earned 7 targets on the day (30.0% first-read target share), but that was due to Prescott dropping back a season-low 33 times (in a 44-22 blowout win). Assuming the Cowboys' defense remains a bottom-3 unit, their offense is aptly compared to the 2024 Bengals (with Lamb being the Ja’Marr Chase equivalent).
7. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR3, SEA
After 7 Weeks, Smith-Njigba leads the league in air yard share (49.8%), target share (34.7%), TPRR (0.37), receiving YPG (117.0), YPRR by 0.89 (4.43), 1D/RR (0.195), and FP/RR (0.84). He’s also scored a TD in each of the last three games, creeping up the triple-crown leaderboard: 819 receiving yards (1st), 50 receptions (4th), and 4 TDs (9th). He is currently accounting for 46.3% of the Seahawks' receiving yards market share (MVP candidate?).
8. Ja’Marr Chase, WR4, CIN
In the two weeks with Joe Flacco at QB, Chase is averaging 17.5 targets per game, 127.5 receiving YPG, a 50.8% first-read target share, and 31.9 XFP/G. Chase has now scored over 25.0 fantasy points in each of his last three games, and leads the league in receptions (58) and targets (78), while ranking 2nd in receiving yards (629) through 7 Weeks. Chase and the Bengals also have an excellent strength of schedule for the remainder of the season.
9. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR5, DET
St. Brown heads into the bye week ranked 5th in target share (29.4%), 10th in receiving YPG (76.9), 5th in YPRR (2.70), 1st in TDs (7), 3rd in 1D/RR (0.156), and 3rd in FP/RR (0.74). St. Brown has also recorded a 50.0% or higher first-read target share in each of the last three weeks.
10. Justin Jefferson, WR6, MIN
In Jefferson’s last 11 games alongside Jordan Addison, he’s been outscored by Addison in 6 of those 11 contests (18.1 FPG for Jefferson vs. 17.6 FPG for Addison in that span). In their 3 games together this season (with Carson Wentz at QB), Addison is averaging 17.4 FPG to Jefferson’s 18.3 FPG. Jefferson has yet to score a TD with Wentz at QB, and is averaging 60 uncatchable air yards per game in those three contests.
Outlook: Buy based on the odds that Jefferson regresses toward the mean after a mediocre fantasy outing in Week 7 (Example: AJ Brown + Xavier Worthy)
11. De’Von Achane, RB5, MIA
There is a real chance that Tua Tagovailoa is benched after his Week 7 performance (3 interceptions and 3 “fumbles”). In the 6 games without Tagovailoa last season, Achane averaged just 8.6 FPG and 11.6 XFP/G, seeing just 10 rush attempts and 2.2 targets per game in that span. With Tagovailoa at QB in 2025, Achane is averaging 12.7 rush attempts and 6.1 targets per game.
12. Josh Jacobs, RB6, GB
Despite dealing with an illness in Week 6 and a calf injury in Week 7, Jacobs has recorded two of his most efficient games back-to-back (5.17 and 4.23 YPC). He has now seen 2.50+ yards before contact per attempt and has scored 2 rushing TDs in each of his last three games. Jacobs now has 24 TDs in his 24 games as a Green Bay Packer.
13. James Cook, RB7, BUF
The vast majority of fans and analysts seem to agree that the key to the Bills getting back on track offensively is to get Cook more involved. In Weeks 1-4 (all games that the Bills won), Cook saw 21.8 touches per game. In Weeks 5-6 (games that the Bills lost), Cook saw only 16.0 touches per game and failed to record a single reception in that span.
Outlook: Buy based on the usage and production Cook earned/offered in the games in which the Bills won, and the belief he gets back to that volume in Week 8 (Example: D’Andre Swift + Brian Thomas)
14. Rashee Rice, WR7, KC
Rice owners are likely ecstatic with his debut performance in Week 7 (23.2 fantasy points), after they held the bag patiently for 6 weeks. Rice’s usage was interesting in this game, with his running only 17 total routes, and seeing an aDOT of 1.7 yards. He earned an absurd 0.53 TPRR, but his 2 TD scores may have bloated his fantasy performance. I think we can reasonably expect his usage to ramp up and evolve further as the season progresses.
15. Saquon Barkley, RB7, PHI
Since my “shop around” recommendation after Week 5, Barkley is averaging 3.40 YPC and 7.0 FPG. To make matters even worse, we are now seeing the Eagles' offense thrive without the contributions of Barkley, as Jalen Hurts has recorded 275.0+ passing YPG in each of the last three weeks. Barkley had 17 carries of 20+ yards last season, and has had 0 such runs in 2025, which is likely due to his seeing 1.21 yards before contact per attempt in 2025 (3rd-least among RBs), versus the league-leading 3.55 yards before contact per attempt in 2024.
Outlook: Buy if the Barkley owner is getting desperate, because his value is likely at a season-low right now (Example: Courtand Sutton)
16. Emeka Egbuka, WR8, TB
Egbuka carries obvious league-winning upside with the season-ending injury to Mike Evans. Egbuka was the WR3 (20.5 FPG) before his Week 6 injury, while still leading all Buccaneers receivers in targets (11) in Week 7 (playing through that injury). It ended up being an outlier performance for Egbuka (9.8 fantasy points), largely thanks to his seeing an uncharacteristically high 139 uncatchable air yards (79.0% of his air yardage market share).
Outlook: Aggressively Buy (Example: Drake London + low-tier Flex or Bench Stash piece)
17. Javonte Williams, RB8, DAL
Williams bounced back in Week 7 (18.8 fantasy points) after a lackluster performance the week prior (8.4 fantasy points). Through 7 Weeks, Williams ranks 4th in rushing YPG (84.6), 3rd in YPC (5.33), 3rd in rushing TDs (6), 14th in explosive run rate (5.4%), and 1st in YACO/Att (3.67). Williams also has the 4th-most rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (8), with a 62.5% TD rate on those attempts (8th-best).
Outlook: Buy based on the season-long reliability paired with upside Williams offers at the RB position (Example: Bill Croskey-Merritt + Tetairoa McMillan)
18. Kyren Williams, RB9, LAR
After dominating the backfield share in Week 5 (thanks to poor play from Blake Corum), Williams reverted to a 50/50 split with Corum in Week 7. Corum also out-touched Williams inside the 10-yard line, three to two. The cherry on top was Matthew Stafford throwing 4 TDs from inside the 5-yard line. However, before blowing the Jaguars out, Williams led the backfield in carries in the 1st half (seven to two). Williams has now been tackled at the 1-yard line, while failing to score a TD on that same drive, a league-high four times this season.
Outlook: Buy based on his first half usage in Week 7, especially if the owner is desperate for a starting caliber RB while Williams is on his Bye (Example: Chuba Hubbard + DJ Moore)
19. Rome Odunze, WR9, CHI
To my surprise, Odunze’s numbers have taken a massive dip following the Bears' Week 5 bye. In Weeks 1-4, Odunze ranked 12th in air yard share (42.0%), 11th in targets per game (8.3), 11th in first-read target share (32.1%), and 3rd in FPG (19.9) - thanks largely to his 5 TDs. Since then, he ranks 14th in air yard share (42.0%), 37th in targets per game (5.5), 49th in first-read target share (17.9%), and 70th in FPG (5.2). The Bears have leaned more run-heavy in those two weeks, and Odunze has not scored in either contest. The Bears' next three games are against the Ravens, Bengals, and Giants (who all rank bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers).
Outlook: Buy based on his upcoming schedule and his currently low value compared to Weeks 1-4 (Example: Ashton Jeanty)
20. Derrick Henry, RB10, BLT
Henry saw 20+ rush attempts for the first time all season in Week 6 (24 attempts), earning 122 yards (5.08 YPC). Henry faces the 2nd and 4th-worst rushing defenses (Chicago and Miami) in terms of YPC allowed (5.33 and 5.21, respectively) in Weeks 8 and 9. This favorable strength of schedule coincides with the likely return of Lamar Jackson.
Outlook: Buy based on his usage in Week 6, the fact that his bye has passed, and his upcoming schedule (Example: Breece Hall + Marvin Harrison)
21. Nico Collins, WR10, HST
Collins’ YPRR, ASS, and route win rate in 2024: 2.94, 0.161, and 20.5%. In 2025: 2.02, 0.090, and 15.1%. Compared to 2024, Collins is running roughly the same routes per game (~28.5) and earning roughly the same targets per game (~8.0), but seeing fewer catchable targets (71.7% in 2025 compared to 77.8% in 2024). CJ Stroud is playing poorly, the O-line is a bottom-tier unit, and the overall offensive scheme is lackluster at best. Collins also suffered a concussion in Week 7, and I fail to see any silver linings for him and this offense going forward.
Outlook: Sell for the little name value he still has, before he’s ruled out for Week 8 (Example: Rome Odunze or Derrick Henry)
22. Josh Allen, QB1, BUF
Through 7 Weeks, Allen ranks 14th in passing YPG (232.8), 10th in passing TDs (11), 2nd in scramble yards (228), 2nd in FP/FB (0.65), and 3rd in FPG (23.0). He also ranks 2nd in rushing YPG (42.3) and total rushing attempts (46), but has scored just 3 rushing TDs in 6 games played (0.5 per game). Allen had scored 12 TDs in 17 games last season (0.71 per game).
23. Lamar Jackson, QB2, BLT
We finally received some good news regarding Jackson. He was seen practicing today, a promising sign that he will return to action in Week 8. Here is a reminder that Jackson was leading the league in FP/FB (0.80), and ranked 2nd in FPG (23.8) prior to his injury.
Outlook: Aggressively Buy if the Jackson owner is effectively too far out of playoff range after 7 Weeks of football (Example: AJ Brown or Ashton Jeanty)
24. Davante Adams, WR11, LAR
With Puka Nacua sidelined in Week 7, Adams scored 26.5 fantasy points (23.5 XFP) in a blowout win (35-7). This was largely thanks to his seeing 3 end zone targets with a 100% TD conversion rate (all inside the 5-yard line). Adams now ranks 2nd in XFP/G (19.2) through 7 games.
25. George Pickens, WR12, DAL
In CeeDee Lamb’s return to action, Pickens (6 targets) was out-targeted by both Lamb (7 targets) and Jake Ferguson (7 targets). I already noted the season-low number of dropbacks for Dak Prescott in Week 7 (33), and Pickens remained largely efficient on his 28 routes run (2.93 YPRR). Pickens also notably outpaced Lamb in XFP in Week 7 (14.3 to 14.1), and I expect him to remain a top-15 WR in this high-flying Cowboys offense.
Outlook: Buy if the owner is concerned about Pickens' target share of fantasy ceiling with Lamb returning to action (Example: DK Metcalf + D’Andre Swift)
26. Patrick Mahomes, QB3, KC
Through 7 Weeks, Mahomes is the QB1 with 25.0 FPG. He ranks 6th in passing YPG (257.1), 4th in passing TDs (14), 1st in scramble yards (247), and 6th in FP/FB (6). Up until last week, he led the Chiefs in rushing yards. He has thrown 3 or more TDs in three out of the last four weeks, and the addition of Rashee Rice has clearly raised his fantasy ceiling.
27. Cam Skattebo, RB11, NYG
I’m ready to crown Skattebo as the best RB in the 2025 draft class. Among his class, Skattebo ranks 6th in YPC (4.06), 4th in explosive run rate (4.1%), 1st in MTF/Att (0.26), 1st in YACO/Att (2.85), and 1st in FPG (17.0). He’s a set-and-forget RB1 the rest of the season.
28. Drake London, WR13, ATL
London’s production with and without Darnell Mooney over his career is quite interesting. With Mooney healthy: 8.5 targets per game, 64.7 receiving YPG, and 0.4 TDs per game. Without Mooney: 14.8 targets per game, 128.0 receiving YPG, and 1.0 TD per game. This season alone, London is averaging a 26.2% first-read target share with Mooney healthy, and a 48.8% first-read target share without Mooney.
Outlook: Sell based on his apparent capped fantasy ceiling when Mooney is healthy (Example: Bucky Irving or Derrick Henry)
29. Jalen Hurts, QB4, PHI
Hurts put many of the naysayers to rest in Week 7 (me), with a perfect passing performance (158.3 passer rating). He threw a season-high 326.0 passing yards and 3 TDs, and finished the day with 24.0 fantasy points. However, Hurts has now recorded three straight games with fewer than 15 rushing yards, and only scored once on the ground in the last four weeks. He had not gone under 20 rushing yards in a single game last season.
30. Trey McBride, TE1, ARZ
McBride had scored only 3 TDs in his last 21 games with Kyler Murray, and he’s met that mark in just 2 games with Jacoby Brissett at QB. In Weeks 1-5 with Murray this season, McBride was averaging 8.0 targets per game, 55.0 receiving YPG, 1 end zone target per game, and 13.3 XFP/G. In the two games with Brissett, McBride has averaged 11.5 targets per game, 73.0 receiving YPG, 3 end zone targets per game, and 23.8 XFP/G.
31. Bucky Irving, RB12, TB
We haven’t heard much of an update concerning Irving’s recovery from his two injuries. A Week 8 return is a possibility given Irving was not placed on IR, and has now sat out 3 games, but given the Buccaneers have a Week 9 bye, a return in Week 10 seems far more likely.
Outlook: Buy if the owner can’t afford to hold Irving for two more weeks before he returns to play (Example: Drake London or AJ Brown)
32. Ashton Jeanty, RB13, LV
The Las Vegas Raiders had one of the worst offensive performances in NFL history in Week 7, scoring 0 points and recording fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage on offense. I’d like to call this an outlier week for Jeanty (6 rush attempts for 21 yards), but the Raiders have some soul-searching to do on their bye week. Jeanty and the Raiders face top-10 rushing defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed over the next two weeks (Jaguars and Broncos).
33. Quinshon Judkins, RB14, CLE
It’s safe to say that Judkins is one of the best rookie RBs from this “stacked” 2025 draft class. Among his class, Judkins ranks 3rd in YPC (4.28), 3rd in explosive run rate (4.6%), 6th in MTF/Att (0.16), 3rd in YACO/Att (2.56), and 3rd in FPG (15.3). Judkins' Week 7 breakout game (26.4 fantasy points) came against a Dolphins defense that stacked the box at a league-high 52.0% rate.
34. Tyler Warren, TE2, IND
Through his first 7 games, Warren has recorded nearly the same receiving yards (439), YPRR (2.36), and FP/G (14.5) as Brock Bowers did in 2024. The only real difference? The passing volume his offense offers. The Colts are dropping back to pass 8.1 fewer times per game than the Raiders were in 2024. Warren’s weekly ceiling might not be as high as Bowers’ was last season, but he should be ranked as a top-3 TE every week for the rest of the season.
35. Courtland Sutton, WR14, DEN
Despite Bo Nix being a measurably worse QB across the board in 2025 compared to last season, Sutton has the 10th-most receiving yards (469), and is currently the WR12 through 7 Weeks. We saw Nix completely turn around his season around the Week 9 mark in 2024, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an improvement around this juncture again. This would be huge for Sutton, who has gone scoreless in three straight games and has only one game over a 20.0% first-read target share in the last four weeks.
36. Jaylen Waddle, WR15, MIA
Tua Tagovailoa had three times more completed passes to the defense (3) than he did to Waddle (1) in Week 7. The weather was certainly a factor, but Tagovailoa’s permanent benching for Quinn Ewers feels imminent at this point. Waddle had strung together back-to-back top-20 WR performances in the prior weeks, but the Dolphins face a tough Falcons defense in week 8. The Dolphins reportedly have no plans to trade Waddle.
37. Breece Hall, RB15, NYJ
Hall over the last three games (since Braelon Allen went down): 90.4% of team rush attempts, 51.2% receiving snap share (same as Isaiah Davis), and every rush attempt in the red zone (only 2 attempts). The backfield share is there, but the valuable fantasy opportunities are not (11.5 XFP/G in this span). Hall and the Jets offense will have a chance to bounce back against the abysmal Bengals defense in Week 8 (with Tyrod Taylor likely starting at QB).
38. Ladd McConkey, WR16, LAC
McConkey has led the Chargers receiving corps in target share (25.5% in Week 7 and 23,7% in Week 6) and XFP (27.4 in Week 7 and 16.5 in Week 6) in back-to-back weeks. McConkey still finished 2nd in first-read target share in each of those games, and trails Keenan Allen in target share, first-read target share, FPG, and XFP/G on the season. I was encouraged by McConkey’s usage in Week 7 (led the team with 83.6% route participation), which led to a season-high 14 targets.
39. Tetairoa McMillan, WR17, CAR
McMillan had his lowest fantasy outing of the season in Week 7 (6.3 fantasy points), thanks to facing shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner on 58% of his routes. The good news? Andy Dalton is expected to take over at QB in Week 8, and I don’t know if he relinquishes that role the rest of the season. Across his five starts in 2024, Dalton threw for over 200 yards 3 times (and over 300 yards once). Young has only done so once in seven starts this season.
40. Jayden Daniels, QB5, WAS
Daniels suffered a hamstring injury in the Commanders' Week 7 loss to the Cowboys, which will sideline him for at least his Week 8 matchup against the Chiefs. It’s been an injury-riddled season for Daniels and the Commanders, as Daniels will miss at least his 3rd game so far, and currently ranks 14th in FP/DB (0.54).
41. Garrett Wilson, WR18, NYJ
Wilson’s Week 8 status remains uncertain, with the Jets having an extremely favorable matchup against the Bengals. They have their bye the week after, so we may not see a return to play for Wilson until Week 10. The silver lining is that Justin Fields is being benched in favor of Tyrod Taylor going forward (Wilson recorded 24.4 fantasy points in Taylor’s Week 3 start earlier in the season).
42. A.J. Brown, WR19, PHI
Brown had his best performance of the season in Week 7 (28.1 fantasy points), thanks to a two-TD day (one of which came against a linebacker in coverage). Still, it was DeVonta Smith who was the clear favorite target for Jalen Hurts, seeing 5 more targets (11 to 6), and nearly double the XFP (18.1 to 10.8). Our Data Charter Zach Swails has noted that it appears evident “the Eagles offense wants to run through DeVonta.”
Outlook: Sell while he is at a season-high in value (Example: Derrick Henry/Cam Skattebo/Bucky Irving)
43. Zay Flowers, WR20, BLT
In the four games Lamar Jackson has played this season, Flowers averages a 27.5% target share, 76.3 receiving YPG, 2.50 YPRR, and 15.2 FPG. Across the full season (so far), those marks would rank 10th-best, 11th-best, 7th-best, and 15th-best. The return of Jackson, paired with the Ravens' defense remaining a bottom-5 unit, should lead to top-15 upside for Flowers ROS.
Outlook: Buy based on his production when Jackson was healthy (Example: Breece Hall)
44. Jake Ferguson, TE3, DAL
In CeeDee Lamb’s return to play, Ferguson still finished as a top-5 TE in Week 7 (21.9 fantasy points), and remains the TE1 on the season. He also tied for the lead in target share (23.3%) and first-read target share (30.0%), while seeing the only end zone target on the day. This passing attack is so robust, I fail to see how Ferguson does not remain a top-3 TE ROS.
45. Jaylen Warren, RB16, PIT
Warren hit season-highs in fantasy points (19.8) and backfield carry share (84.0%) in Week 7. If we “cherry-pick” a little and only look at Warren’s 4 fully-healthy games (sans the Week 6 matchup against Cleveland), he’s averaging 4.39 YPC, 0.27 MTF/Att, 3.14 YACO/Att, 16.1 FPG, and 16.6 XFP/G. Those marks would rank 20th, 3rd, 5th, 12th, and 8th across the full season.
Outlook: Buy based on Warren’s usage in Week 7, and his extremely favorable schedule after Week 10 (Example: Nico Collins)
46. D’Andre Swift, RB17, CHI
Swift is on an absolute heater after the Bears' Week 5 bye. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaging 7.03 YPC, a 15.2% explosive run rate, 23.2 FPG, and 27.2 XFP/G. Here are the two main concerns for Swift going forward. One, the Bears are favored in only 3 of their 10 remaining games, so they may not lean as run-heavy as they have after the bye (Swift averages only 8.7 FPG in Bears losses this year). However, the Bears play the Ravens, Bengals, and Giants over the next three weeks. Second, Kyle Monangai earned 39.0% of the backfield carries and 41.0% of the backfield XFP (including 2 out of 5 of the carries inside the 10-yard line) in Week 7.
47. George Kittle, TE4, SF
Here is a Kittle fun fact for you owners that were massively disappointed by his goose egg in Week 7: Kittle has had 6 games with one or fewer receptions since 2021, and averages 19.1 FPG in the game that followed. The 49ers' next game comes on National TE Day.
Outlook: Buy if the Kittle owner is frustrated after his matchup-losing goose egg in Week 7 (Example: Tee Higgins)
48. Brock Bowers, TE5, LV
This is likely the last chance you’ll have to buy low on Bowers this season. The Raiders have their bye this week, and Bowers will return in Week 9 with over a month of rest for his knee injury. He’s reportedly looking closer to full strength in practice, and should return as the Raiders’ leading receiver (for whatever that is truly worth with Geno Smith at QB).
Outlook: Buy if the Bowers owner is struggling or needs depth elsewhere on their roster (Example: Sam LaPorta + Xavier Worthy/Chuba Hubbard)
49. Travis Etienne, RB18, JAX
Among qualified RBs, Etienne ranks 2nd to last in percentage of runs gaining yards over expectation (35.0%). As Ryan Heath astutely pointed out, Etienne’s YPC by month has dropped off after September in each of the last two seasons (6.06 in September this season and just 3.75 in October).
50. DK Metcalf, RB19, PIT
I can’t get the image of Metcalf shying away from the potential game-winning Hail Mary reception, on a throw from Aaron Rodgers that traveled 70 yards in the air, given his size and stature. Through 7 Weeks, Metcalf ranks 38th in targets per game (6.2), 14th in end zone targets (4), 16th in first-read target share (28.6%), and 41st in XFP/G (11.1). He’s a low-end TD-dependent WR2 for me ROS.
