GAME PICKS
Rams at Ravens
Bet – Over 46 points (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – Even though Matthew Stafford is coming off his worst game as a Ram, this is an eruption spot for their passing attack as a whole given how badly beat up the Ravens secondary is. HC Sean McVay is going to dial up an extremely pass-heavy attack here – which plays right into their strengths. Over the last eight weeks, the Rams are first in pass rate when trailing, third in pass rate when leading, and sixth when the game is within a score. Despite Lamar missing essentially three games, this Ravens offense still ranks 16th in plays per game and they are actually second in pass rate over the last three weeks. HC John Harbaugh has done a phenomenal job at keeping this team together despite all of their injuries and staying aggressive. As 4-point underdogs here, the Ravens will likely have to air it out no matter if it’s Jackson or Huntley under center. This is the second-best game in my pace / plays model behind only Cowboys-Cardinals.
Raiders at Colts
Bet – Under 45 points (-110, BetMGM)
Why? – This is the slowest game in adjusted combined pace on the Week 17 slate. Indianapolis is top-10 in run rate in every situation (when leading, trailing, or in close games) and their pace of play has dipped dramatically as a result. No team is getting to the line of scrimmage slower than the Colts (32nd in pace). Colts games have hit three-straight unders. Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points in seven of their last 8 games.
PLAYER PROPS
Sunday Games
Sony Michel
Bet – Over 0.5 rush TD (+136, SuperBook)
Why? – Love these TD bets on SuperBook – went 3-for-3 last week. This is way too much juice for Michel, who is the lone man left standing. Henderson is on I.R. and Akers won’t play this week. Ravens have given up a rushing TD in back-to-back games.
Matthew Stafford
Bet – Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+160, SuperBook)
Why? – Put a small piece on this. Stafford has 3+ TDs in 8-of-15 games. Ravens have allowed league-high 12 TDs over the last five weeks.
Tyler Boyd
Bet – Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why? – Over this total in four-straight. Chiefs giving up the ninth-most YPG to slot WRs (96.9). Slot men Jerry Jeudy (4/77), Keenan Allen (6/78/1), and Hunter Renfrow (13/117/1) have done well vs. Chiefs recently. We have Boyd projected for 58 yards.
Zach Wilson
Bet – Under 210.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Going back to the Wilson unders ATM. Has been under this total in four of his last 5 games since returning. Down all of his best WRs with Moore and Crowder out. We have Wilson projected for just 170 yards.
Michael Carter
Bet – Under 20.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Shocked this total is this high. Zach Wilson simply doesn’t throw to his RBs. Carter has been under this total in 6-of-7 starts with Wilson and is averaging just 10.3 receiving yards per game in WIlson’s starts.
Jalen Hurts
Bet – Over 0.5 rush TD (+178, SuperBook)
Why? – Sanders out, Howard questionable. Hurts may be needed more at the goal-line. Already has 10 rushing TDs this year. Washington has allowed 5 rushing TDs to QBs this year (tied for most), including two to Hurts two weeks ago.
Taylor Heinicke
Bet – Under 205.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)
Why? – Might get benched for Kyle Allen again. Under this total in three-straight for an average of just 146.3 passing yards per game. We have Heinicke projected for just 165 passing yards.
David Montgomery
Bet – Over 0.5 rush TD (+154, SuperBook)
Why? – Bears favored by a TD. Has 12 inside-10 carries over his last four games.
Mike Gesicki
Bet – Under 42.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Titans holding TEs to the fourth fewest YPG. We have Gesicki projected for 35 yards.
Terry McLaurin
Bet – Under 4.5 receptions (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Under 5 receptions in five-straight games. Will lock up with Darius Slay.
Courtland Sutton
Bet – Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
Why? – Last man standing with Jeudy and Patrick out. Chargers have given up the 11th-most yards to WRs over the last five weeks. Broncos huge +8 underdogs and will have to throw more to catch up.
Kyler Murray
Bet – Over 33.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
Why? – Favorite prop of the week. Averaging 49.7 rushing yards in his last four starts since returning. Cowboys play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, which makes it easier for running QBs to scramble. We have Kyler projected for 46 rushing yards.
Alvin Kamara
Bet – Over 65.5 rushing yards (-105, PointsBet)
Why? – Averaging 20.4 carries and 77 yards per game in seven starts without Ingram.
Sam Darnold
Bet – Under 197.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
Why? – Feeling blessed to bet against Darnold once again this season. Averaging 164.5 passing yards over his last six appearances. Could get benched if he stinks.
Gerald Everett
Bet – Over 26.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Over this in 5-of-7 since Wilson returned. Lions allowing second-most YPG to TEs over the last eight weeks. We have Everett projected for 47 yards.
SNF
Check back soon.
MNF
Check back soon.
ROI THIS SEASON
– Game Picks -10% (20-23; 46.5% win rate)
– Player Props 7% (236-203; 53.8% win rate)
– Total ROI 4%
