Barfield's Best Bets: Week 11

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Barfield's Best Bets: Week 11

GAME PICKS

Washington at Panthers (CAR -3, -115 BetMGM)

I’m siding with the Panthers here and think Cam Newton is worth more than the markets do. Over their last eight games, the Panthers have scored a TD on just 14.7% of their possessions – only the Lions (13.5%) and Texans (8.9%) are worse. Cam has one of the easiest draws in his first start as Washington is allowing a TD on 34.2% of their opponents possessions (second-highest rate).

Cowboys at Chiefs (DAL+2.5, -105 DK)

After one good game, the Chiefs are getting a ton of respect here against this Cowboys side that is averaging 33 points per game in Dak’s starts. Dallas should have their way with Kansas City’s defense.

PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Pitts

Bet – Under 61.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM & -120, SI Sportsbook)

Why? – We think Belichick is going to do everything within his defensive powers to erase Pitts here. Falcons have no other weapons that scare you with C-Patt (ankle) banged up. We have Pitts projected for 38 yards.

Jakobi Meyers

Bet – Under 55.5 receiving yards (-115, DK & -110, BetMGM)

Why? – Averaging just 36.2 YPG over his last five games. Has topped 56 yards just three times all year. Falcons giving up the sixth-fewest YPG to slot WRs (they are much easier to beat out wide). Leading game-script likely. We have Meyers projected for 46 yards.

A.J. Brown

Bet – Over 75.5 receiving yards (-105, FOXBet)

Why? – Since returning in Week 5, AJB is third among all WRs in target share. He’s going to be relied on heavily again here and the Texans don’t have anyone good enough to cover him.

Jalen Reagor

Bet – Under 19.5 yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in any of his last five games and has 5 catches for 31 yards (total) in this span.

Ryan Griffin

Bet – Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Was involved on 72% of Jets pass plays last week with Tyler Kroft out. Joe Flacco will be good for a few check downs and the Dolphins are giving up the fifth-most YPG to TEs.

Tua Tagovailoa

Bet – Over 245.5 passing yards (-115, PointsBet)

Why? – Jets getting creamed for second-most YPG (291) and Tua crushed the Jags (329 yards) and Falcons (291) in two similarly easy matchups a few weeks ago. We have Tua projected for 270 yards.

Michael Pittman

Bet – Under 65.5 receiving yards (-125, PointsBet)

Why? – Bills are shutting down opposing WRs to a league-low 124 total YPG. Pittman has 6 or fewer targets in four of his last 5. Have to think Buffalo will try to do everything to shut Pittman down and force Wentz elsewhere.

Cole Beasley

Bet – Under 46.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM / -115, SuperBook / -115, DK)

Why? – Snagged this in a bunch of different books. This is a huge total for Beasley – who played just nine snaps last week because of injured ribs. He was still in a non-contact jersey in Friday’s practice. We have Beasley projected for 35 yards.

Khalif Raymond

Bet – Under 35.5 (-121, PointsBet / -115, FOXBet)

Why? – This is a pretty fat total for a Tim Boyle-led offense. Raymond’s involvement has been all over the place over his last five games (2 > 7 > 8 > 1 > 6 targets).

Kirk Cousins

Bet – Under 267.5 passing yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Markets are underrating how good this Packers defense is. Even without Jaire Alexander since Week 5, GB is allowing just 13.3 points and 220 passing yards per game. We have Cousins projected for 250 yards.

D.J. Moore

Bet – Over 55.5 yards (-115, DK)

Why? – Big boost from Cam, Washington getting smacked for the second-most YPG by WRs (192).

Cam Newton

Bet – Over 27.5 rushing yards (-115, DK)

Why? – If he’s truly back, Cam will obliterate this total. Washington is down Chase Young and Montez Sweat along their defensive line.

Trevor Lawrence

Bet – Under 227.5 passing yards (-120, BetMGM)

Why? – Jags are broken. 49ers defense has really improved over recent weeks and are now allowing the third-fewest YPG to QBs (207.9). We have Lawrence projected for 215 yards.

Joe Mixon

Bet – Over 16.5 receiving yards (-115, SuperBook)

Why? – Averaging 21.1 routes per game over his last four outings, which is Kamara territory. Has turned those extra passing down snaps into 45+ yards in 3 of last 4 games. We have Mixon projected for 26 yards.

Michael Gallup

Bet – Over 54.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Gets a huge boost with Cooper out. We have Gallup projected for 64 yards.

Darren Waller

Bet – Under 71.5 receiving yards (-115, DK)

Why? – This is a huge total for Waller, who has eclipsed 65 yards just twice all year. The Bengals are also good against tight ends, limiting them to 43.2 YPG (11th-fewest). We have Waller projected for 58 yards.

Najee Harris

Bet – Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

Why? – Has cleared this number four times in his last 5 games. Now gets a Chargers defense allowing a league-high 132 YPG on the ground.

ROI THIS SEASON

– Game Picks -24.8% (Overall: 14-16)

– Player Props +9.3% (Overall: 102-78)

– Total ROI +2.9%

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.

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