Seattle Seahawks (3-5, 5-3 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (7-2, 8-1), 4:25 p.m.
Brolley’s Seahawks Stats and Trends
Both the Seahawks and Packers have played under the total in six straight games.
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
The Seahawks have played under the total in four straight road games.
Russell Wilson will make his return this week after missing the last three games for finger surgery on his throwing hand. Wilson had 22+ FP in three of his first four games before getting injured in Week 5, and he’s leading the league with a 9.6 YPA average. The Packers have limited both Kyler Murray (274/0 passing) and Patrick Mahomes (166/1) to a combined 21.5 FP over the last two weeks.
D.K. Metcalf has reached double-digit FP in every game this season thanks to scores in six contests (eight overall), and his FP steadily improved with Geno Smith (11.8<17.6<22.3). He averaged 9.3 targets per game in his last three full contests with Wilson at the helm. The Packers are giving up the sixth-fewest FPG (31.6) to WRs this season.
Tyler Lockett had fallen below eight FP in four of his last five games heading into Week 8, but he had one of his blow-up games with 12/142 receiving on 13 targets against the Jaguars — it was his third game with 26+ FP. Lockett owned a 25% target share in Wilson’s four full games this season compared to Metcalf’s 32% share. The Packers contained Tyreek Hill to 4/37 receiving on 11 targets last week.
Chris Carson could potentially return after missing the last five weeks with a neck injury. He saw 13+ touches in each of his first four games and he averaged 65.3 scrimmage yards per game. Alex Collins averaged 16.3 touches and 64.6 scrimmage yards per game in four contests without Carson in the lineup. The Seahawks backfield is at full strength for the first time this season with Rashaad Penny also back in the mix so there’s a chance this could be an ugly committee if they’re worried about putting too much work on Carson’s plate the rest of the season. The Packers are giving up 4.1 YPC and 112.1 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.
Brolley’s Packers Stats and Trends
The Packers are on an NFL-best eight-game ATS win streak.
The Packers managed just seven points in Jordan Love’s first NFL start against the Chiefs in Week 9. Needless to say, Green Bay’s offense needs Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup as soon as possible, which happens to be Saturday since the unvaccinated Rodgers must be away from the team for at least 10 days. Rodgers should return to the lineup against the Seahawks, but his status shouldn’t be taken for granted since he’ll need to be symptomless to gain clearance after his 10-day isolation period. Rodgers had thrown for multiple TDs in seven straight games before his absence in Week 9. The Seahawks have limited five straight QBs to fewer than 18 FP with just one passing TD in each of those contests.
Davante Adams managed just 6/42 receiving while playing with Love last week, despite seeing 14 targets (44% share) against the Chiefs. He’s back to leading the league in target share at 35% but he’s had some touchdown regression this season, with just three scores after leading the league with 18 receiving TDs in 2020. The Seahawks’ secondary hasn’t been tested since Diontae Johnson posted 9/71 receiving on 13 targets in Week 6.
Allen Lazard led these secondary WRs with 34 routes and 9.0 FP last week, followed by Randall Cobb (27, 8.0) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (22, 3.9). MVS hadn’t played since Week 3 because of a hamstring injury so he could see his role increase this week with a game under his belt. The Seahawks are giving up the 16th-fewest FPG (35.6) to WRs.
Aaron Jones has fallen below nine FP in two of his last three games, and he didn’t have a catch last week for the first time since Week 15 of 2019. A.J. Dillon actually had 4/44 receiving and he totaled 90 scrimmage yards on 12 touches last week. Dillon has been hovering around 40% of the snaps in three of the last four games, and he’s eating into Jones’ production with his 5.0 YPC average in that span. The Seahawks have been torched for 176.4 scrimmage yards per game by RBs this season, including Alvin Kamara’s performance in Week 8 with 179/1 scrimmage.
Barfield’s Pace and Tendencies
Pace (seconds in between plays): 28.3 (20th)
Plays per game: 59.0 (32nd)
Pass: 58.3% (25th) | Run: 41.7% (8th)
Pace: 32.2 (32nd)
Plays per game: 64.0 (29th)
Pass: 59.6% (19th) | Run: 40.4% (14th)
While it’s definitely great to have Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson both back, this game doesn’t exactly have shootout written all over it. Seahawks-Packers ranks dead-last in both adjusted pace and play volume between these two slow offenses.
Seattle put up at least 28 points in three of Wilson’s four full games, but it wasn’t because of good game-planning. The Seahawks were perfectly balanced (53% pass | 47% run) with their early down play selection in Weeks 1-4 despite the fact that Wilson was averaging a league-high 10.1 YPA on his 1st and 2nd down throws. Once again, we find ourselves begging the Seahawks to open things up and turn into the Bills of the West. We can always dream.
Meanwhile, the Packers have been a dead under team this season. Six of their 8 games went under before Aaron Rodgers missed Week 9 as their defense has held opponents to a modest 17.8 points per game after they get whipped by the Saints on Opening Day. Between Wilson making his return after a month layoff, Rodgers not practicing for basically two weeks due to COVID protocols, and both of these offenses playing slow as molasses – I can see this game underwhelming.
Huber’s Key Matchup Notes
During Russell Wilson’s three-game absence, DK Metcalf was able to produce decent numbers (17.2 FPG). But Tyler Lockett was overlooked during Geno Smith’s first two starts, only seeing the love against Jacksonville in Week 8. Lockett ended up averaging 11.6 FPG with Smith under center. While I think Wilson absolutely noticed Lockett being underutilized and will make every effort to get his involvement back on track, this is also a matchup that favors Lockett more than Metcalf based on coverage schemes.
Dolan’s Vantage Points
Well… they’re back. At least one officially.
In a battle of two returning QBs, Russell Wilson is the one who looks more certain to play this week. And although he’s not yet 100%, he says he’s close, and a sub-100% Wilson is likely to be better for the Seattle offense than a 100% Geno Smith.
"I wasn't going to take 6 to 8 (weeks). That wasn't in my mind." What Russell Wilson said today about beating the projected timetable on his return and how his surgically-repaired finger is feeling in his first week back: https://t.co/K5ImyWW0QK— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) November 12, 2021
Obviously, Russ’ presence is good news for DK Metcalf (who is managing a foot injury) and Tyler Lockett. Wes outlined above that he prefers the matchup for Lockett, but in season-long, you’re starting both.’
One pleasant surprise this week for the Seahawks is that RB Chris Carson returned to practice. Carson is dealing with a chronic neck issue, which could eventually shorten his career, and if he does return, it’s possible the Seahawks choose to make this a committee with Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny. Carson will NOT play this week, but he is working his way back.
Chris Carson won't play this week, Pete Carroll says.— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) November 12, 2021
The Packers have been all over the news, mostly because of the Aaron Rodgers media tour, but they also very publicly finished runners-up in the Odell Beckham sweepstakes.
Sources: Odell’s final 2 teams came down to the #Rams and #Packers (who remained his preferred destination). Not once did OBJ feel like GB was all-in. On the flip side, he spoke w/Sean McVay, who was able to creatively detail the multitude of ways he’d maximize OBJ’s talents. https://t.co/NEzQNqAJsp— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) November 11, 2021
So apparently the Packers were like… “yeah, we’ll take ya, but…”? Anyway, the Packers’ front office not going “all-in” enough is one of the reasons Rodgers is disgruntled in the first place. Beckham would have been a great fit opposite Davante Adams, but from our perspective, we’ll be happy to see Rodgers — presuming he clears COVID protocol on Saturday, as expected — continue to pump Adams with targets.
It’s a game for Adams and this backfield, with how badly the Seahawks have been toasted by opposing RBs this year. AJ Dillon’s usage has gone up enough that he can be considered a FLEX, though I will consider Aaron Jones’s lack of production last week more a symptom of the Jordan Love Experience.