For more in depth analysis and matchup details, head over to Advanced Matchups.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz, IND at HOU ($6.7K DK | $7.5K FD)
Projected Ownership:
DraftKings: 8-10%
FanDuel: 5-7%
Week 12 Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Fourth-highest rate of Cover 2)
Results: 306 passing yards, 3 TDs, 86.0 passer rating, 26.3 FPs (34% above floor value)
Week 13 Opponent: Houston Texans
Schemes: Cover 1 at sixth-highest rate & Cover 2 at second-highest
Allowances: 18.6 FPG to opposing QBs (sixth-most)
Scheme History: Last 3 years (40 games), 0.39 FP/Db (fifth-best), 105.4 passer rating (second-highest), YPA improves by 33% (the most)
Other:
Wentz is using eighth-highest rate of play action (32%)
Texans are giving up the fourth-most FP/CS (0.46), eighth-highest passer rating (121.2), and third-most TDs (eight) on play action
Game Type: CASH/SINGLE-ENTRY (SE)
The Bottom Line: From a quality perspective, the Texans pack the coverage prowess of the Detroit Lions — aka not good. The Jets are the only defense to permit a higher rate of passing first downs than Houston (38.6%). Wentz posted 17.02 FPs against Houston during the Colts’ 31-3 victory in Week 6. I’m expecting the Texans will mount a better offense this time around. Wentz will provide our Cash/SE lineups with a rock-solid guarantee for profit over floor.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYG ($5.5K DK | $6.9K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 1-3%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 12 Opponent: Carolina Panthers (fifth-highest rate of Cover 1 & 11th-highest rate of Cover 3)
Results: 230 passing yards, TD, 108.3 passer rating, 13.2 FPs
Week 13 Opponent: New York Giants
Schemes: Fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 (the highest rate in Week 12), Fourth-lowest of Cover 1
Allowances: Sixth-most FP/CS (0.44), 12th-highest passer rating (116.3), and the most TDs (10) on play action
Scheme History: During career (18 games) vs. Cover 3, posted a 96.6 passer rating (12th-best), YPA improves by 17% (seventh-best), and uses play action on 42% of his dropbacks (fifth-highest)
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Tagovailoa has posted a 3-0 record in career matchups against the Patriots and Jets — AFC East defenses using top-10 rates of Cover 3, including two wins against New England, and he’s provided a profit in excess of floor value in all three.
Favorite Alternatives
Tom Brady, TB at ATL ($7.2K DK | $8.1K FD | ExpOwn: 16-18% | Game: CASH/SE)
Derek Carr, LV vs. WAS ($6.0K DK | $7.5K FD | ExpOwn: 4-5% | Game: GPP)
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson, WAS at LV ($5.7K DK | $6.2K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 15-17%
- FanDuel: 20-22%
Week 12 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
Results: 36 touches, seven receptions, 146 total yards, 23.6 FPs
Week 13 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
Allowances: Fourth-most FPG to opposing RBs (27.4), eighth-most rushing YPG (125.9), seventh-most rushing TDs/game (1.00), 6th-highest of 20+ runs (2.86%)
Other: J.D. McKissic (concussion) has been ruled out; Gibson will gain invaluable up-tempo role that supports ~85% of McKissic’s production
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: I’ve turned a solid profit by simply targeting the RB opposing the Raiders each week. It’s not foolproof, but it’s certainly served its purpose. The up-tempo role alone is worth at least 5-7 FPs. Smash meet spot.
Alexander Mattison, MIN at DET ($7.6K DK | $8.7K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 5-7%
- FanDuel: 2-4%
Week 3 & 5 Opponent: Seattle Seahawks & Detroit Lions
Results: Averaged 33 touches, 7.5 receptions, 162 total yards, 25.2 FPG
Week 13 Opponent: Detroit Lions
Allowances: 26.9 FPG to RBs (fifth-most)
Other:
Lions are missing 2 out of every 12.5 tackle attempts (16%) — the highest rate in the league
Over the last four weeks, Detroit has missed an average of 12 tackles/game!
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Word on Dalvin Cook’s shoulder injury possibly being a separation was reported early enough for both platforms to boost his pricing. Mattison is priced at a premium, but the ROI on those cap dollars will be well spent when he goes nuclear on Detroit, once again.
Favorite Alternatives
Jonathan Taylor, IND at HOU ($9.2K DK | $10.5K FD | ExpOwn: 27-29% | Game: CASH/SE)
Boston Scott, PHI at NYJ ($4.6K DK | $6.6K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin, TB at ATL ($6.6K DK | $7.6K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 25-27%
- FanDuel: 18-20%
Week 12 Opponent: Indianapolis Colts (fourth-highest rate of Cover 2, ninth-highest of Cover 3)
Results: 4/24/0 on 5 targets; Kenny Moore II ghosted Godwin on 21 routes inside his zone
Week 13 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Schemes: 10th-highest rate of Cover 1, the highest of Cover 2 (2x the rate of the Colts)
Allowances: 37.2 FPG to WRs (6th-most), 1.36 TDs/game (2nd-most)
Individual Matchup: Richie Grant (2021 second-rounder)
Metrics: 0.42 FP/CS and 141.8 targeted passer rating would rank dead last if qualified
Scheme History: Over the last three seasons (37 games), 0.52 FP/Rt against Cover 2 (2nd-most), 2.81 YPRR (second-best), and 12.3 YPT (12th-best).
Other: 6.64 YAC/reception this season (eighth-highest)
Game Type: CASH/GPP
The Bottom Line: Tampa Bay enters Week 13 with another prime matchup against a Cover 2-heavy defense. Only four other qualified defenders at any position (all safeties) have permitted a targeted passer rating higher than Grant’s 141.8. Godwin is going to have the rookie turning in circles on Sunday.
Van Jefferson, LAR vs. JAX ($5.3K DK | $5.8K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 2-4%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 12 Opponent: Green Bay Packers
Results: 3/93/1 & 18.3 FPs (4/133/2 & 32.3 FPs if he didn’t step OOB on another TD catch)
Week 13 Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Schemes: 12th-highest rate of Cover 3, fifth-highest last week
Allowances: 36.3 FPG to WRs (12th-most), 1.91 red zone touches/game (fifth-most)
Individual Matchup: If Shaquill Griffin (concussion) is ruled out, Tyson Campbell (‘21 second-rounder)
Metrics: 1.72 YPCS (third-most among 79 qualified outside CBs), 0.33 FP/CS (10th-most)
Scheme History: During career (27 games), 0.44 FP/Rt (16th-most), 2.29 YPRR (15th), 10.6 YPT (18th), and AY/Tgt improves by 13% against Cover 3
Other:
Target shares, last five games: 17%, 16%, 13%, 17%, 22%
Griffin still not practicing
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: Sean McVay knew exactly what he was doing when he selected Jefferson with his ‘20 second-rounder. And he appears to be a clone of Robert Woods. We can still have exposure to Jefferson in GPPs while his pricing provides salary relief with a Himalayan value as the WR35/WR41.
DK Metcalf, SEA vs. SF ($6.7K DK | $7.3K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 3-4%
- FanDuel: 3-4%
Week 12 Opponent: Washington Football Team
Results: 1/13/0 & 2.3 FPs (1/13/0 on 30 routes into Kendall Fuller’s zone)
Week 13 Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Scheme: Seventh-highest rate of Cover 3
Allowances: 33.4 FPG to WRs last four games (11th-most); 11th-highest rate of 40-plus yard completions (2.99%) this season
Individual Matchup: Josh Norman
Metrics: 1.36 YPCS (18th-most among 79 qualified outside CBs), 0.32 FP/CS (13th-most), 0.21 AY/CS (19th-most), and a 126.3 TPR (fourth-highest)
Scheme History: During career (43 games), 0.45 FP/Rt (13th-most), 2.26 YPRR (19th-most), and 11.0 YPT (15th-most) against Cover 3
Other:
49ers are allowing the ninth-most FP/CS (0.42), 10th-highest passer rating (117.1), 12th-highest rate of completion of 20-plus yards, seventh-most TDs on play action
Metcalf is drawing 32% of FPG, 2.96 YPRR, and a perfect targeted passer rating (158.3) on play action
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: The “Wolverine” will easily face the softest coverage matchup from Norman. It’s the perfect get-right opportunity for Metcalf to get his season back on track, and fuel our tourney lineups, potentially posting his highest output of the season.
Favorite Alternatives
Keenan Allen, LAC at CIN ($7.5K DK | $7.3K FD | ExpOwn: 28-30% | Game: CASH/SE)
Christian Kirk, ARI at CHI ($5.6K DK | $6.2K FD | ExpOwn: <1% | Game: GPP)
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski, TB at ATL ($5.3K DK | $7.0K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: 11-13%
- FanDuel: 2-4%
Week 12 Opponent: Indianapolis Colts (fourth-highest rate of Cover 2, ninth-highest of Cover 3)
Results: 7/123/0 on 10 targets & 19.3 FPs
Week 13 Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
Schemes: 10th-highest rate of Cover 1, the highest of Cover 2 (2x the rate of the Colts)
Allowances: Fourth-highest completion percentage (69%), third-highest third down conversion rate allowed (47.1%)
Individual Matchup: Deion Jones
Metrics: 1.66 YPCS (third-most), 0.36 FP/CS (seventh-most), and 120.3 TPR (seventh-highest)
Scheme History (Cover 1): Since returning from retirement (21 games), leads all qualified TEs with 0.98 FP/Rt, 125.1 TPR (fifth-highest), 14.3 AY/Tgt (second), 2.58 YPRR (third), and 9.8 YPT (sixth). On 15% of his routes, he’s collected 28% of his receptions, 30% of his yardage, and 46% of his TDs
Scheme History (Cover 2): 0.59 FP/Rt (first overall), 147.3 TPR (first), 2.77 YPRR (first), and 12.1 YPT (second)
Other: Gronk posted 4/39/2 & 19.9 FPs against these Falcons in Week 2
Game Type: CASH/SE
The Bottom Line: The greatest TE to ever step foot onto a football field. Gronk is a living legend, proving himself as a top-five TE after a full season away from the game. And few defenses mix together the Cover 1 and Cover 2 potion that brings out Gronkowski unguardable mojo.
Jack Doyle, IND at HOU ($3.3K DK | $5.0K FD)
Projected Ownership:
- DraftKings: Less than 1%
- FanDuel: Less than 1%
Week 12 Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Fourth-highest rate of Cover 2)
Results: 6/81/1 & 20.1 FPs
Week 13 Opponent: Houston Texans
Schemes: Cover 1 at sixth-highest rate & Cover 2 at second-highest
Allowances: 15.5 FPG to TEs (fifth-most), 0.55 TDs/game (sixth-most), 1.00 red zone touches/game (5th-most)
Individual Matchup: Zach Cunningham
Coverage Metrics: 1.21 YPCS (21st-most among 79 qualified LBs), 0.29 FP/CS (21st-most), and 97.1 TPR (35th-lowest)
Scheme History: Last 3 seasons (42 games), 0.43 FP/Rt (6th-best), a 112.7 TPR (6th-best), and targeted on 23% of routes when the defense is using Cover 2 (11th-highest)
Other:
Drawing 52% of FPG production on play action
Texans allowing fourth-most FP/CS and eighth-highest passer rating on Play Action
Game Type: GPP
The Bottom Line: We aren’t chasing Doyle’s FPs from last week, we are chasing the same coverage scheme… and at twice the rate.
Favorite Alternatives
Foster Moreau, LV vs. WAS ($2.7K DK | $5.0K FD | ExpOwn: 14-15% DK | Game: CASH/SE | ExpOwn: 1-3% FD | Game: GPP)
Zach Ertz, ARI at CHI ($5.4K DK | $5.5K FD | ExpOwn: 2-4% DK | Game: GPP | ExpOwn: 18-20% FD | Game: CASH/SE)
Defense/Special Teams
Miami Dolphins, MIA vs. NYG ($3.3K DK | $4.0K FD | ExpOwn: 16-19%)
Game Type: CASH/SE
Baltimore Ravens, BAL at PIT ($3.4K DK | $4.8K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3%)
Game Type: GPP
Favorite Alternatives
*Arizona Cardinals, ARI at CHI ($3.4K DK *| $5.0K FD | ExpOwn: 12-15% | Game: CASH/SE)**
Los Angeles Rams, LAR vs. JAX ($4.0K DK | $4.9K FD | ExpOwn: 1-3% | Game: GPP)
