Texans at Dolphins
Bet – Texans +6.5 (-110, WynnBet)
Why? – Snagged this right after the news came out that Tyrod Taylor is starting. It’s already gotten beaten down a point (to +5.5 as of Thursday afternoon) and I would take anything over +5. Miami stinks and has the second worst point differential (-95) only ahead of the Texans (-122). Houston was actually competitive with Taylor under center – they won in Week 1 and were hanging around with the Browns in Week 2 before Tyrod went down.
Patriots at Panthers
Bet – Patriots -3.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Why? – Simply put: The Panthers offense has collapsed as Sam Darnold keeps regressing and without Christian McCaffrey over the last month. In their last four games, Carolina has scored a TD on just 4-of-51 drives (7.8%) – which is the worst scoring rate in this span. Meanwhile, 23-of-51 drives (45.1%) have ended in a punt in their last four games. That’s not the ratio you’re looking for. On the other hand, the Patriots are quietly moving the ball well. 46.5% of their drives have ended in a score (FG or TD) which trails only the Bills, Rams, Cowboys, and Cardinals for the best clip in the league.
Browns at Bengals
Bet – Under 47 points (-110, PointsBet)
Why? – This is the worst game of the week by a mile in adjusted combined pace between these two offenses that are bottom-5 in seconds spent in between plays. In fact, neither the Browns or Bengals play faster when they’re trailing – which is against the NFL trend. On average, offenses play about 2 seconds faster when they’re behind as opposed to leading. Not here! The Bengals are 32nd in pace when trailing while the Browns rank 29th. No matter which way you slice it, this is an awful game from a volume perspective. The one thing that could save this game from being zapped is the Bengals coming out and throwing the ball a ton. Cincy is 65.6% pass-heavy when the game is within a score, which is the seventh-highest rate. If they can push the pace on the scoreboard and force the Browns to play catch-up, we have a narrow pathway for this game to a shootout. I’m not optimistic, though, especially with Baker Mayfield playing through a brutal shoulder injury. Cleveland has scored 17 or fewer points in four of their last 5 games.
Broncos at Cowboys
Bet – Over 48.5 points (-110, PointsBet)
Why? – The Cowboys put up a whopping 34.2 points per game in Dak's first six starts, which, for reference, would lead the league over the Bills (32.7) this season. Dallas’ high-powered, fast-paced offense led their games to going 5-1 towards the over in Weeks 1-6 and this sets up as another potential blowup spot. Before facing an injured Baker Mayfield on a short-week on TNF two weeks ago and Washington in Week 8, the Broncos yielded 23 points to the Ravens, 27 to the Steelers, and 34 to the Raiders in three-straight losses. Dallas is 5-1 towards overs with Dak with their games averaging 58.5 total points combined.
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (-110, SI Sportsbook)
Why? – Through seven quarters with Mike White under center, Carter has gotten 22 targets. We have Carter projected for 5 receptions.
Bet – Over 20.5 receiving yards (-128, FOXBet) & Over 23.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) & Anytime TD (+310, PointsBet)
Why? – Bad yardage numbers across the market. The Jets are allowing a league-high 69.3 YPG to tight ends. Everyone’s favorite pornstar Mo Cox cleared 25 yards in four-straight before last week’s goose egg (on 4 targets). We have him projected for 38 yards.
I’m also snagging a juicy anytime TD on PointsBet at +310… Mo Cox is third on the team in end zone targets (4), has four TDs in his last five games, and the Jets have allowed a position-high 14 TDs.
Bet – Over 17.5 carries (-125, PointsBet)
Why? – Grabbed this with Marlon Mack out (healthy scratch). Colts are huge favorites so game-script should be in Taylor’s favor and the Jets are facing 26.1 RB carries per game (sixth-most).
Bet – Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Averaging just 3.1 targets per game, Saints giving up the sixth-fewest YPG to TEs (38.1). We have Hurst projected for 18 yards.
Bet – Over 68.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Outside of two games against the league’s best run defenses (Saints and Buccaneers) in Weeks 3-4, Damien Harris is averaging 18 carries and 84.5 rushing yards per game. Panthers front-seven has been cracked for 114 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks (seventh-most). We have Harris projected for 81 yards.
Bet – Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Averaging 80.9 YPG, Vikings are giving up a league-high 100.7 YPG to receivers lined up out wide, and we have Hollywood projected for 77 yards.
Bet – Over 55.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Why? – OBJ gone, Peoples-Jones questionable, has 18 targets in his last two games back from injury, and the Bengals have given up over 65 yards to nine different WRs this season.
Bet – Over 2.5 Pass TDs (+160, DraftKings)
Why? – Couldn’t resist this juice. Burrow has multiple TDs in every game so far and 3 TDs in four of his last 5 games. Browns secondary is giving up a 6.4% touchdown rate (fourth-highest).
Bet – Under 38.5 receiving yards (-115, WynnBet)
Why? – Has a pathetic 14% target share since Chark went down, Bills giving up the second-fewest YPG to WRs, and we have Shenault projected for just 25 yards.
Bet – Over 50.5 yards (-110, PointsBet)
Why? – Got 7, 9, and 8 targets in the three games DeVante Parker missed and turned it into 43, 115, and 85 yards. Texans giving up 11th-most YPG to TEs (61.5).
Bet – Over 5.5 receptions (+130, PointsBet)
Why? – Massive QB upgrade in Tyrod. Cooks had 10 catches for 182 yards in six quarters with Tyrod back in Weeks 1-2. Dolphins giving up the fourth-most receptions per game to WRs.
Bet – Over 255.5 passing yards (-115, FOXBet)
Why? – Huge 10-point dogs so trailing game-script very likely. Through eight weeks, the Broncos are the second-most pass-heavy team in the league when trailing (73.8%) behind only the Buccaneers and Tom Brady (76.8%). Expecting a ton of passing volume for Denver this week. Cowboys are giving up the fifth-most YPG to QBs (294.9).
Bet – Over 4.5 receptions (+120, FOXBet)
Why? – Broncos are going to have to throw a ton to keep up with Dallas. Jeudy got 4 balls on 72% of the snaps last week in a low-scoring game. We have Jeudy projected for 5 grabs.
Bet – Over 55.5 yards (-105, PointsBet)
Why? – Shepard out. Golladay coming off knee injury. We have Toney projected for 66 yards.
Bet – Over 54.5 yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Has 70+ yards in back-to-back with no Ertz. Chargers giving up 74.6 YPG to TEs.
Bet – Over 80.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Averaging a massive 12.8 targets per game over his last five. Packers have given up ceiling games to Chase (6/159/1) and McLaurin (7/122/1) with Jaire Alexander out since Week 5.
Bet – Over 71.5 receiving yards (-115, BetMGM)
Why? – Back and dominating. Rams have given up at least 70 yards to a single WR in 5 of their last 6 games.
ROI THIS SEASON
Game Picks -10.3% (Overall: 12-12)
Player Props +7.1% (Overall: 80-62)