2025 Week 5 DFS Coverage Shells

I hope you’ve all had a great week! Let’s make it a better one.

We’re now in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season and have the first set of bye weeks on our hands:

• Atlanta Falcons

• Chicago Bears

• Green Bay Packers

• Pittsburgh Steelers

This week’s article and subsequent articles will cover the Sunday main slate of games, unless otherwise specified. Visuals and other data analysis throughout the article will still feature all 32 teams.

Let’s get started!

Team Defenses

Team Offenses

Pass Catchers

LV @ IND

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) travel east to Indianapolis to take on the Colts (3-1) at 1:00 PM EDT on Sunday. The Colts are currently 6.5-point home favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

IND is coming off its first loss of the season, losing 27-20 on the road at the LAR, while LV has lost three straight games and just dropped its most recent one at home to CHI by a final score of 25-24.

IND owns the 2nd-highest total on the main Sunday slate at 27 implied team points.

LV will be without LT Kolton Miller, which is a significant blow to an offense still struggling to find its identity.

My gut feeling is that 7 points seems like a high number. There’s data other than the betting markets suggesting that this could be an advantageous passing matchup for each offense.

Both of these defenses rank top 5 in dropback rate over expected allowed to opposing offenses this season, using play-by-play data with my own personal adjustments. LV has a good run defense. They rank 2nd in EPA/rush allowed (-0.28) and 7th in rush success rate allowed (36%).

Offensively, LV ranks in the bottom 10 in dropback rate in neutral situations (50%), so an implied negative game script could help boost their passing volume.

Also, I thought this came as a surprise:

Here are the relevant pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

Daniel Jones ($5,800) is priced as the DK QB9 on the Sunday main slate. I find this interesting because DET (29.5) is the only other offense on the slate with a higher implied team total than IND, and QB Jared Goff ($6,500) is priced as the DK QB4.

Jones is averaging 0.63 DK points per dropback on the season, and Goff is averaging 0.59. This IND offense warrants closer examination.

I’ll start with a devil's advocate. As it pertains to Daniel Jones’ career success going up against Pete Carroll, the small sample favors Carroll, as Jones has averaged just 0.23 points per dropback in 2 career outings.

Having said that, both Jones and Carroll are with new organizations, and Jones is playing in a system with arguably the most roster stability and quality playcalling he’s ever had. IND has thrown to their first-read more than any other offense through the first four weeks of the season (81%).

IND WR Alec Pierce ($4,400) didn’t play last week because of a concussion he suffered late in the 3rd quarter of week 3. Pierce rarely comes off the field when healthy, so his availability impacts pass catchers throughout the entire depth chart despite ranking just 4th on the team in target share.

IND WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,100) was added to the injury report late in the week and would also drastically impact the pass-catching shuffle should he not suit up vs LV.

Defensively, LV deploys the most zone coverage in the NFL (93%). More specifically, LV uses Cover 3, a single-high variant, at the highest clip so far this season (54%).

Rookie TE Tyler Warren ($4,700) could be in line for a boom week. Warren has been targeted on 30% of his routes vs zone compared to 10% of his routes vs man this season:

Against Cover 3, Tyler Warren has impressive volume and usage on a limited sample:

The Raiders play in base personnel more than any other defense (72%). Tyler Warren has been targeted on 50% of his routes and owns a 6.68 YPRR when the opposing defense is operating out of base.

For Warren, 68% of these routes vs base personnel have come on play-action dropbacks. IND likes to use play action and especially so against heavy personnel. 74% of IND’s dropbacks vs base have featured play action this season.

IND runs the most overall play-action in the NFL, and LV ranks 25th among defenses in efficiency against play-action, allowing 0.28 EPA/dropback.

Tyler Warren has been targeted on 53% of his routes and is averaging 6.47 yards per route run on play-action dropbacks compared to 15% and 0.92 without it.

Warren is priced as the DK TE4 on the main slate, and given the team’s high implied scoring and matchup vs LV, I think stacking him with Daniel Jones is a sound process.

Should Pierce and/or Pittman not play, WR Josh Downs ($4,100) is another cheap lineup option. The only problem is that Downs isn’t getting work in 2WR sets and is on the field for <50% of the early down snaps so far in 2025.

WAS @ LAC

The Washington Commanders (2-2) travel west to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) at 4:25 PM EDT on Sunday. The Chargers are currently 2.5-point home favorites with the game total hovering around 48.5 points.

WAS is coming off a 34-27 loss at ATL, while the Chargers are coming off a 21-18 loss at the NYG.

Should he play as expected, Jayden Daniels ($7,000) is priced as the DK QB2, while Justin Herbert ($6,100) is priced as the QB6. The Commanders have been without Daniels for each of their last two games as he’s dealing with a leg injury, but he’s been a full participant in practice this week and is lining up to play on Sunday.

Neither Terry McLaurin nor Noah Brown will play this week and aren't even traveling with the team:

As for the Chargers, they lost franchise LT Rashawn Slater for the season during training camp, which kicked over 2024 first round selection Joe Alt from RT to LT. Joe Alt has played at an All Pro level at LT so far this season prior to getting carted off in last week’s game with an ankle injury. He won’t play this week vs WAS, which drastically impacts the LAC pass protection.

Nonetheless, this game is tied for the highest total on the main slate with the home team favored by less than a field goal, making it a passing matchup we can’t ignore.

WAS has an above-average run defense. They rank 8th in EPA/rush allowed (-0.15) and 9th in rush success rate allowed (36%). However, WAS has a below-average pass defense, as they rank 28th in EPA/dropback allowed (0.22) and 22nd in dropback success rate allowed (48%).

So far in 2025, LAC is the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL.

With Justin Herbert’s offensive line banged up, combined with the relative rushing success LAC showed last week vs NY, you’d think this game could potentially serve as a sharp time to pivot towards the ground game. But this matchup vs WAS specifically could also entice a more dropback-heavy approach.

Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

Defensively, WAS ranks 9th in man coverage usage (31%) and 11th in single-high usage (57%) while ranking bottom 5 in points per dropback allowed in each.

However, WAS coverage tendencies have diverged in recent weeks.

Weeks 1-2

• 41% Man and 61% Single-High

• 38% Cover 1 and 18% Cover 3

Weeks 3-4

• 18% Man and 52% Single-High

• 13% Cover 1 and 42% Cover 3

Single-high looks have been the more stable usage throughout the first month of the season. While everyone continues waiting for the WR Ladd McConkey ($5,500) breakout, his teammates Quentin Johnston ($5,700) and Keenan Allen ($5,600) have the more favorable coverage matchups if you prefer the season-long tendencies.

Against single-high looks, Johnston and Allen are averaging more than double the fantasy points than McConkey on a per-route basis:

As for LAC defensively, they rank 7th in zone coverage rate (78%) and 11th in two-high rate (54%).

WR Deebo Samuel ($6,300) and TE Zach Ertz ($3,800) were already viable plays based on the coverage matchup, and with McLaurin out, that’s even more so the case.

Samuel (who is questionable with a heel injury) is targeted on 32% of his routes vs two-high shells compared to 20% vs single-high, while Ertz is targeted on 28% of his two-high routes compared to 13% vs single-high. McLaurin is the team’s downfield track meet target against MOF closed looks, but let’s dive into this a bit deeper.

Here’s a more specific breakdown of the LAC zone looks:

• Cover 2: 13% (18th)

• Cover 3: 36% (9th)

• Cover 4: 24% (2nd)

• Cover 6: 6% (24th)

If we isolate just for Cover 3 and Cover 4, Deebo Samuel has been the more productive fantasy option over Zach Ertz on a per-route basis:

But those McLaurin reps could very well go to Ertz here.

I think either Samuel or Ertz are solid plays this week, but Samuel has the volume upside without McLaurin while Ertz has the scoring upside with his Jayden Daniels connection.

DAL @ NYJ

The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) travel to New York to take on the Jets (0-4) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Cowboys are currently 2.5-point road favorites and the game total is hovering around 47.5 points.

DAL is coming off a 40-40 tie vs GB, while the NYJ is coming off a 27-21 loss at MIA.

The game total is tied with LV/IND for the 2nd-highest on the main slate. DAL's 25-point implied team total stands as the 4th-highest on the main slate.

I am perplexed by the Justin Fields pricing here. Fields is priced as the DK QB11 on the Sunday main slate ($5,600), and Dak Prescott is priced as the QB7 ($6,000).

Defensively, DAL is allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing QBs (+10.8) as well as to opposing WRs (+21.6). Justin Fields averages the most fantasy points per dropback among all QBs this season (0.92).

Now granted, DAL has given up much of that fantasy production through the air while Fields’ value component comes as a runner. Still, this lucrative passing matchup for NY could elevate them from their abysmal passing usage towards more baseline rates, rising the tide for all ships.

Here are notable pass catchers in this matchup:

EARLY Early down snap share

THIRD Third down snap share

ROUTE Routes run per team dropback

YPRR Yards per route run

TPRR Targets per route run

TGT% Target share

1RD% 1st-read target share

XFP Expected fantasy points per game

PTS Actual fantasy points per game

As you might have noticed, DAL WR CeeDee Lamb isn’t included in the table. He hasn’t practiced all week and likely won’t play because of an injury he suffered early on in Week 2.

As for NY, rookie TE Mason Taylor ($2,800) has been limited in practice but could play on Sunday.

WR Garrett Wilson ($6,100) is the premier target in this offense, and should he stay healthy, that won’t change all year. But in my opinion, Mason Taylor has no business being priced outside the top 20 DK TEs on the main slate.

The Jets are the least dropback-heavy offense in the NFL, and Fields is one of the worst pocket passers in the game, but Taylor’s target share has grown every week this season and it’s beginning to consolidate around certain players:

DAL ranks 2nd in zone coverage usage (88%) and 8th in two-high shells (56%).

Justin Fields is scrambling on 18% of his dropbacks vs two-high compared to 8% vs single-high. I think Fields has a good fantasy matchup, and if you’re looking for a pass catcher to go with him, Mason Taylor is more of a value than Garrett Wilson this week, and you’re capturing some differentiation by doing so.

As for the NYJ defensively, they allow the 5th-most schedule-adjusted PPG to opposing TEs (+4.2).

DAL TE Jake Ferguson ($4,800) is priced as the DK TE3 on the main slate and for good reason. Ferguson is the TE1 in both expected PPG based on volume (16.2) and actual PPG based on real production (16.3).

This might be surprising to some, but Ferguson’s target share didn’t skyrocket once CeeDee Lamb went out, it’s been relatively stable throughout the first four games. I find this to be a positive for Ferguson because he’s a legit focal point in the passing game.

WR George Pickens ($6,600) is the one who has benefited the most from Lamb’s injury, as his target share has grown in every game:

Pickens is priced as the DK WR6 on the main slate. Pickens is the WR6 on the season in expected PPG (17.3) and the WR6 in actual PPG (19.5).

Defensively, the Jets rank 7th in man coverage usage (34%) and 12th in two-high shells (52%).

Ferguson is capturing nearly identical target shares vs man as both Lamb and Pickens, while being the clear number one target vs two-high looks: